We often hear reports that something is occurring around the world, and then someone responds: “That’s not happening where I live.” And the rebuttal is, “Your neighborhood is not typical of the rest of the world.” In other words, the claim is: this trend is going on everywhere elsewhere despite your not observing it.
For a month now we have been reading in the media about how July was the hottest month in recorded history.
“July was Earth’s hottest month on record, NOAA says” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34009289
And at the same time, we read reports about how cool the summer was in Canada, in the US, in the UK, in parts of Europe and how cold was the winter in Australia.
“What a washout! A British summer to forget. In the UK July was colder than average, and we had 140% of average rainfall.” http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/16/washout-british-summer-witness-holiday-experts
“The July contiguous U.S. average temperature was 73.9°F, 0.2°F above the 20th century average and ranked near the middle in the 121-year period of record.” http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201507
“Wetter than normal summer for most of Canada except B.C.” http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/08/wetter-than-normal-summer-canada-except-bc/
“A large swath stretching from eastern Scandinavia into western Siberia was cooler than average, with part of western Russia much cooler than average. Cooler than average temperatures were also observed across parts of eastern and southern Asia and scattered areas in central and northern North America.” (Source: NOAA)
So the question arises: Is there global warming unseen in most observations? How would we know what was observed in July and whether it was unusual or not?
NOAA provides this analysis of July 2015.
Continental Temperature Anomalies July 2015
|CONTINENT||ANOMALY (1910-2000)||TREND (1910-2015)||RANK|
|°C||°F||°C||°F||(OUT OF 106 YEARS)|
The table shows that no continent had the warmest July ever. Africa came close and also South America, which means a milder mid-winter than usual in the southern hemisphere. So how come they claim a record July?
The answer is provided by another NOAA analysis.
Global Analysis of July 2015
|°C||°F||(OUT OF 136 YEARS)||YEAR(S)||°C||°F|
|Land||+0.96 ± 0.18||+1.73 ± 0.32||Warmest||6th||1998||1.11||2|
|Ocean||+0.75 ± 0.07||+1.35 ± 0.13||Warmest||1st||2015||0.75||1.35|
|Land and Ocean||+0.81 ± 0.14||+1.46 ± 0.25||Warmest||1st||2015||0.81||1.46|
So there you have it. Once again the ocean is making the climate, with July SSTs higher because of the Blob and the long-developing El Nino. And we can expect that with all the heat now being released upward from the water, there will be cooling of SSTs and a La Nina in response.
Some of the alarmists reject the tropospheric temperature because ‘we don’t live in the troposhpere’ but are quite happy to accept ocean temperatures.
As long as SSTs are rising, that is.
Nice to hear from you, Richard, I enjoyed our previous collaboration.
Mr too. I’m now working on US House election results, and Greek New Testament manuscripts.
I also want to look at historical temperature reconstructions at
Richard, that looks like a right proper swamp. How do you propose to drain the alligators? If you have a project concept, let me know by email.
Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.
Ron this is a result of low solar activity. TSI has dropped off significantly this year, back down to pre2011 levels, nearly to the level of the solar minimum years between SC23 and this cycle. Expect significant global cooling from here on out for most if not all of the rest of our lives after this El Nino ends.
Why do you expect solar effects to be greater than anthropogenic effects ?
Richard, I would ask you the opposite question.
There is no energy created by CO2. Nor does it store energy, and even if it could there so little of it in the atmosphere to supposedly hold heat, it would never be possible for the phantom retained heat of CO2 to heat the rest of the planet, as the there isn’t enough mass of CO2 to effectively transfer enough heat to do so. CO2 is impotent as a warming agent of ANY SIGNIFICANCE. The photons that are absorbed then re-emitted by any molecule came from the sun first.
Any additional energy necessary to warm the planet at all can only come from the sun. The hardly worth talking about temperature increase of less than 1C since 1850 is certainly nothing to worry about anyway. The additional energy that drove those increasing temperatures, especially 1980-2004, came from the modern maximum in solar activity.
I define the modern maximum in solar activity here:
The sun had 65% higher sunspot activity for the 70 years between 1935-2004, than the previous 70 years between 1865-1934. The earlier 70 year period averaged 65.8 annually, whereas the latter 70 year period averaged 108.5/year. Data used for this came from the v2 SSNs from the WDC-SIDC. The version one SSN disparity was 89% between the 70 year periods. After the revision, it is now 65%
TSI tracks with sunspot activity, meaning TSI was correspondingly higher for those 70 years compared to the previous 70 years. That higher TSI delivered the heat (photons) into the system that caused “global warming”.
The sun does not have a static output, and it’s variation is higher than the 0.1% muted value that the IPCC uses. Furthermore there is a level of solar activity that is insufficient to warm the planet, and when that happens, that’s when the globe cools. That is the scenario we are entering into now, as the next one or two solar cycles are expected to be lower than this low cycle, the lowest 100 years.
The tired old failed arguments of the warmists are total crap. I sincerely hope that you Richard are not one of the fools who continues to believe their scary fairy tales based on useless “CO2 science”.
No, not at all. Ron will vouch for that.