Recent posts here discussed how rapidly has cooling set in this year. Of course that reality is inconvenient in the run up to Glasgow COP, so the scramble is on to claim that 2021 is hotter than ever. A previous post Heat Records Silly Season Again provides background for understanding that there are literally millions of temperature records that can be packaged to support any desirable warming or cooling claim.
A current example of such packaging is found in a recent tweet thread from Zeke Hausfather, a climate analyst who helped build the BEST dataset and a supporter of the IPCC agenda.
A curious person would note that only summer and land is shown, and would wonder: What am I not seeing? And then in the thread are various comments saying it was not at all warm where I live, this doesn’t add up. And then someone shows another graph from BEST giving a different impression.
Climate reporting is confusing because the scope of temperature averaging gives very different impressions, and at the mega scale rarely corresponds to anyone’s particular experience. So generalizations are claimed extrapolating from statistics, contradicted by many persons’ direct experience.
NOAA State of the Climate is another site advocating for the IPCC agenda and illustrates how this works. First the Global Climate Report:
So there is the #1 warmest land summer, but we now can see the Ocean was 6th and combined Global is 4th, not 1st. Now let’s look at the year to date (YTD):
Oh oh, that’s not as scary; the first two-thirds of 2021 are not #1, but #6, and with autumn coming on could go even lower. And to understand why most people will be put off by Hausfather’s claim, we go to the Regional Analysis in order to see what the year has been like in various continents (land by definition).
It becomes obvious that no matter where I live, don’t tell me this is the hottest year ever. OK some Africans may agree, but those in Oceania (mostly Australians) will boo you out of the room. And as for tourist destinations, forget about it:Footnote: Everyone has an agenda and packages data in support of their POV. Those who joined the anti-fossil fuel crusade are bound to find and amplify any bit of global warming they can find. My agenda is for people to consider the full amount of relevant data and facts, and to reason accordingly rather than go along with the crowd or their feelings. My approach is best expressed in this essay:
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
One also needs to see the statistical parameters associated with the “mean”. If these don’t exist then it is not a statistical analysis. If they won’t say, you can be sure they have something to hide.
Zeke Hausfather should maybe also look further back at the data sets. whilst it is true that the data sets show greater land warming in the last 45 years than sea surface temperatures, in the early twentieth century the two in HADCRUT4 are very much the same. The greater warming in recent years than the early twentieth seems pretty much due to land surface temperatures. Seems to biases in the data sets. My own guess is that on land surface data, the further the greater suppression of fluctuations, giving the misleading impression that the human influence has a greater marginal impact than reality.
Manic, I have long suspected that the “pause” (better termed a “plateau”) in temperatures occurred toward 20th century end because urban development around weather stations was complete by that time. Since then, there are only adjustments to rely on.
That might be one influence. Since Karl et al 2015 the pause has partly disappeared due to adjustments. It is purely coincidental that Kevin Trenberth emailed M Mann on 12 Oct 2009 (Copying the heads of the HADCRUT, GISTEMP & NOAA datasets) with the comment
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate. ”
A priori beliefs interpret the evidence, the opposite of normal science.
This also links into your latest post “So Called “Climate Science””