Matthew Wielicki explains the scientific malpractice in his Financial Post article Junk Science Week: The hottest year ever?. Excerpts in italics wtih my bolds and added images
Advocates and the media claim 2024 was the hottest year ever.
Archeological data suggest it wasn’t,
while modern data suffer from biases
An image produced by NASA and used when it declared 2024 as the warmest year on record. Photo by NASA
In 2024, mainstream media and political leaders aggressively promoted the alarming narrative that Earth had just experienced its hottest year ever recorded. National Geographic dramatically proclaimed, “2024 was the hottest year ever … and the coldest year of the rest of your life,” while the Vancouver Sun declared unequivocally, “Scientists confirm 2024 was Canada’s and world’s hottest year on record.” Canadian political figures reinforced this narrative, with prime minister Justin Trudeau characterizing the year’s warmth as an urgent call for immediate climate action.
I’m an earth science professor-in-exile. Claims such as these
immediately provoke critical skepticism.
This persistent narrative, relentlessly advanced by a powerful climate-industrial complex comprising governments, activist organizations and the media, is designed not merely to inform, but to generate a state of perpetual urgency. As global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise despite decades of climate policy interventions, the need to claim climate conditions are increasingly severe becomes a strategic imperative, regardless of scientific accuracy or historical context. This approach not only distorts genuine scientific inquiry but fosters anxiety and despair, particularly affecting young people already inundated with predictions of catastrophe.
The answers to four fundamental questions expose the weaknesses and biases inherent in the mainstream climate narrative:
1. Can we accurately measure historical global temperatures?
Claims about unprecedented global heat depend heavily on comparing modern temperature records, which are gathered by instrument and capture annual or monthly fluctuations, to historical temperature estimates derived from proxy data such as ice cores, tree rings, sediment layers and coral reefs. But proxy data inherently smooths out short-term fluctuations, providing generalized temperature estimates spanning centuries or millennia. This mismatch between high-resolution modern data and low-resolution historical proxies inevitably exaggerates the perceived severity of contemporary warming.
For example, widely cited reconstructions and favourites of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explicitly acknowledge their inability to capture temperature variability occurring over periods shorter than 300 years. The rapid temperature changes of recent decades appear unprecedented when put side by side with these smoothed historical averages. This methodological flaw significantly undermines the credibility of claims asserting that current global temperatures are historically unique or alarming.
2. Was 2024 really unprecedentedly warm?
Extensive historical and geological evidence demonstrates significant natural warming vastly exceeding modern temperatures. The Holocene Thermal Maximum (five to nine thousand years ago) saw temperatures significantly warmer than today, including in Canada. Archeological evidence, such as ancient forests revealed by retreating glaciers in the Rockies, conclusively supports periods of substantial natural warmth.
During the Eemian interglacial period (115-130 thousand years ago), Greenland experienced temperatures three to five degrees C warmer than now, despite substantially lower CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere. These scientifically documented periods confirm that Earth’s climate naturally experiences considerable variability, rendering claims of unprecedented modern warmth scientifically untenable and historically uninformed.
3. Are we measuring the effects of CO₂ or urban heat islands
Most modern temperature records fuelling alarmist headlines originate from urban areas influenced by the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE). UHIE results from urban infrastructure, such as concrete, asphalt and buildings, retaining and radiating heat, significantly increasing local temperatures independent of broader climate trends. Toronto’s significant infrastructure growth has noticeably raised local temperatures, heavily skewing data. Similarly, Las Vegas’ highest recorded temperatures coincided with significant expansion around Harry Reid International Airport, illustrating the dominant role of urbanization rather than atmospheric CO₂ emissions.
Recent research indicates that up to 65 per cent of urban warming is from local urbanization rather than global greenhouse gas increases. Attributing urban heat predominantly to CO₂ emissions significantly misrepresents the true dynamics of local temperature increases.
4. Do rising CO2 levels really heat the oceans?
Recent alarmist coverage in outlets like the Financial Times highlights near-record ocean temperatures, linking them directly to rising CO₂ levels. The EU’s Copernicus programme noted that May 2025 ocean temperatures were the second highest ever recorded, with scientists raising concerns about the oceans’ diminishing capacity to absorb CO₂ and excess heat.
But this narrative critically overlooks fundamental scientific facts. Oceans possess a heat capacity orders of magnitude greater than the atmosphere. The notion that atmospheric CO₂ significantly heats ocean water directly is scientifically unfounded, as infrared radiation from CO₂ penetrates mere millimetres into the ocean’s surface, not nearly deep enough to meaningfully alter ocean temperature. Ocean temperature fluctuations are primarily driven by natural phenomena such as El Niño.
Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.
Moreover, historical data on ocean temperatures is highly uncertain, relying predominantly on sparse measurements and indirect proxies. Claiming near-record ocean temperatures without acknowledging these substantial uncertainties misleads the public about the robustness and reliability of these measurements.
Critical conclusion: One thing remains certain: it will never be “too hot” in Canada, despite alarmist rhetoric suggesting otherwise. The exaggerated claims that 2024 was “the hottest year ever” are not grounded in rigorous scientific analysis but serve primarily as political and ideological propaganda. This relentless propagation of fear fosters anxiety, despair, and nihilism, especially among young people — serious consequences largely ignored by climate alarmists.
The scientific community, policy-makers and the public at large need to insist on transparency, rigour and honesty in climate discourse. Recognizing the motivations behind alarmist claims is essential to ensuring public trust and effective policy. Climate science should strive to educate, not frighten, promoting balanced understanding rather than catastrophic narratives disconnected from historical context and scientific rigour.
Matthew Wielicki, Ph.D. in geochemistry from UCLA, publishes the Substack site Irrational Fear, which provides data-driven critiques aimed at fostering a balanced and scientifically grounded understanding of climate science.
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