Sea Ice and Sea Level Update
Post Paris sea level alarms are ramping up:
As global temperatures rise, scientists know that sea levels will follow suit. Today, global sea level is the topic of two new papers, both published in Nature Climate Change. Source: Carbon Brief, today’s date.
Fortunately, antidotes for this feverish reporting are available. Some recent research reports published this year update our knowledge of sea ice and sea level dynamics. Two papers below are by Australians A.Parker and C. D. Ollier. They obviously are not employed by CSIRO, since they are working hard on understanding how the climate system actually works.
Is there a Quasi-60 years’ Oscillation of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent?
A.Parker and C. D. Ollier
From the Abstract:
The Arctic sea ice experienced a drastic reduction that was phased with warming temperatures 1923 to 1940. This reduction was followed by a sharp cooling and sea ice recovery. This permits us to also conclude that very likely the Arctic sea ice extent also has a quasi-60 years’ oscillation. The recognition of a quasi-60 year’s oscillation in the sea ice extent of the Arctic similar to the oscillation of the temperatures and the other climate indices may permit us to separate the natural from the anthropogenic forcing of the Arctic sea ice. The heliosphere and the Earth’s magnetosphere may have much stronger influence on the climate patterns on Earth including the Arctic sea ices than has been thought.
This finding is entirely consistent with Zakharov’s work at AARI, (here) and with analyses (here) of fluctuating Barents and Arctic Sea Ice.
Discussion of Foster & Brown’s Time and Tide: Analysis of Sea Level Time Series
A.Parker and C. D. Ollier
From the Abstract:
The recognition of the non-accelerating, periodic pattern of sea levels as described by the tide gauges measurements does not require any special mathematical tool. Providing enough data of sufficient quality have been recorded, If the classical linear fitting is used to compute the rate of rise at any time, then the acceleration is simply the time rate of change of this velocity. By using this technique, the lack of any acceleration over the last few decades is evident in the naturally oscillating, slow rising, tide gauges of appropriate quality and length.
If the sea levels have to rise 1 meter by 2100 and not only 21.5 millimeters at the worldwide average tide gauge, there is a problem of orders of magnitude difference in the sea levels computed (by climate models) and measured (by tide gauges).
It has come to my attention that both Albert Parker and Cliff Ollier have been vilified on alarmist websites, and will likely be attacked again for their latest papers, which are continuing to favor observations over projections from climate models. For reference I provide additional responses from the two scientists to past critiques.
Cliff Ollier summarizes his views on sea ice and sea levels here:
Floating sea ice and the Archimedes principle
In Ice shelf break-up and sea level change, Ollier says this:
In a piece in the December 11 issue of NRC/Handelsblad, Rotterdam’s counterpart to the New York Times, Wilco Hazeleger, a senior scientist in the global climate research group at KNMI (the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) wrote: “In the past century the sea level has risen twenty centimetres. There is no evidence for accelerated sea-level rise. It is my opinion that there is no need for drastic measures. … Fortunately, the time rate of climate change is slow compared to the life span of the defense structures along our coast. There is enough time for adaptation.”
It would be much better if our politicians (and some scientists) based their opinions on what we can actually observe about sea level, instead of alarming us with dreams of catastrophic sea level rise based on false models of what might be happening to ice caps. Of course even if we believed sea level is rising, it takes another leap of faith to think it is caused by miniscule increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by human activity.
Parker replied to defenders of consensus climate science in 2013:
It is demonstrated that the IPCC models do not reproduce the natural harmonics as the quasi-60 years cycle and overestimate the effect of the anthropic forcings. The IPCC models are shown compatible with the 1999 Mann hockey stick but unfortunately for the IPCC also incompatible with the recent temperature reconstructions. The global warming and sea level predictions for the 21st century may be consequently equally wrong. The increased heat uptake or the rising temperatures of the oceans or the accelerating seas all have similar lack of sound scientific bases.