Sea Ice and Sea Level Update

Post Paris sea level alarms are ramping up:
As global temperatures rise, scientists know that sea levels will follow suit. Today, global sea level is the topic of two new papers, both published in Nature Climate Change. Source: Carbon Brief, today’s date.

Fortunately, antidotes for this feverish reporting are available. Some recent research reports published this year update our knowledge of sea ice and sea level dynamics.  Two papers below are by Australians  A.Parker and C. D. Ollier. They obviously are not employed by CSIRO, since they are working hard on understanding how the climate system actually works.

Is there a Quasi-60 years’ Oscillation of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent?
A.Parker and C. D. Ollier

Satellite sea ice extent North Pole since 1979, the sea ice coverage anomalies. Data from NSIDC

Satellite sea ice extent North Pole since 1979, the sea ice coverage anomalies. Data from NSIDC. The shrinking of ice is consistent with the warming temperature of Fig. 3.

From the Abstract:
The Arctic sea ice experienced a drastic reduction that was phased with warming temperatures 1923 to 1940. This reduction was followed by a sharp cooling and sea ice recovery. This permits us to also conclude that very likely the Arctic sea ice extent also has a quasi-60 years’ oscillation. The recognition of a quasi-60 year’s oscillation in the sea ice extent of the Arctic similar to the oscillation of the temperatures and the other climate indices may permit us to separate the natural from the anthropogenic forcing of the Arctic sea ice. The heliosphere and the Earth’s magnetosphere may have much stronger influence on the climate patterns on Earth including the Arctic sea ices than has been thought.

Satellite sea ice extent North Pole since 1979, the values de-trended to the linear fitting line. Data are from NSIDC. The shrinking of ice is consistent with the warming temperature of Fig. 3.

Satellite sea ice extent North Pole since 1979, the values de-trended to the linear fitting line. Data are from NSIDC.

This finding is entirely consistent with Zakharov’s work at AARI, (here) and with analyses (here) of fluctuating Barents and Arctic Sea Ice.


Discussion of Foster & Brown’s Time and Tide: Analysis of Sea Level Time Series
A.Parker and C. D. Ollier

Sea level patterns in San Diego: SLR over the last 20 years.

Sea level patterns in San Diego: SLR over the last 20 years.

From the Abstract:
The recognition of the non-accelerating, periodic pattern of sea levels as described by the tide gauges measurements does not require any special mathematical tool. Providing enough data of sufficient quality have been recorded, If the classical linear fitting is used to compute the rate of rise at any time, then the acceleration is simply the time rate of change of this velocity. By using this technique, the lack of any acceleration over the last few decades is evident in the naturally oscillating, slow rising, tide gauges of appropriate quality and length.

If the sea levels have to rise 1 meter by 2100 and not only 21.5 millimeters at the worldwide average tide gauge, there is a problem of orders of magnitude difference in the sea levels computed (by climate models) and measured (by tide gauges).


It has come to my attention that both Albert Parker and Cliff Ollier have been vilified on alarmist websites, and will likely be attacked again for their latest papers, which are continuing to favor observations over projections from climate models.  For reference I provide additional responses from the two scientists to past critiques.

Cliff Ollier summarizes his views on sea ice and sea levels here:
Floating sea ice and the Archimedes principle

In Ice shelf break-up and sea level change, Ollier says this:

In a piece in the December 11 issue of NRC/Handelsblad, Rotterdam’s counterpart to the New York Times, Wilco Hazeleger, a senior scientist in the global climate research group at KNMI (the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) wrote: “In the past century the sea level has risen twenty centimetres. There is no evidence for accelerated sea-level rise. It is my opinion that there is no need for drastic measures. … Fortunately, the time rate of climate change is slow compared to the life span of the defense structures along our coast. There is enough time for adaptation.”

It would be much better if our politicians (and some scientists) based their opinions on what we can actually observe about sea level, instead of alarming us with dreams of catastrophic sea level rise based on false models of what might be happening to ice caps. Of course even if we believed sea level is rising, it takes another leap of faith to think it is caused by miniscule increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by human activity.

Parker replied to defenders of consensus climate science in 2013:

It is demonstrated that the IPCC models do not reproduce the natural harmonics as the quasi-60 years cycle and overestimate the effect of the anthropic forcings. The IPCC models are shown compatible with the 1999 Mann hockey stick but unfortunately for the IPCC also incompatible with the recent temperature reconstructions. The global warming and sea level predictions for the 21st century may be consequently equally wrong. The increased heat uptake or the rising temperatures of the oceans or the accelerating seas all have similar lack of sound scientific bases.


  1. Pingback: Sea Level Sanity | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
  2. David · February 9, 2016

    From the open access journal that published this paper comes a disclaimer:

    “This journal has no connection with any society or association, related to Physical Science and allied fields. This journal was not and is not associated with The American Physical Society. Authors and visitors are kindly requested to note that this journal is an independent journal run by SDI.”

    Some background on SDI here:


    • Ron Clutz · February 9, 2016

      David, you forgot the Journal description:
      Physical Science International Journal publishes original research articles, review articles and short communications, in all areas of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences. This is a quality controlled, peer-reviewed, open access INTERNATIONAL journal.
      Subject matters include study in all areas of Physics, Chemistry, Engineering, Material Science, Astronomy, Natural Science, Earth Sciences and other related fields.

      It is open access and peer-reviewed, just not one of those controlled by consensus scientists.

      Here is the complete list of Journals:
      Biological Science

      American Journal of Experimental Agriculture
      Annual Research & Review in Biology
      British Biotechnology Journal
      British Microbiology Research Journal
      European Journal of Nutrition & Food Safety
      International Journal of Biochemistry Research & Review
      International Journal of Plant & Soil Science
      Journal of Advances in Biology & Biotechnology
      Journal of Agriculture and Ecology Research International
      Journal of Applied Life Sciences International
      Geological Science

      British Journal of Environment and Climate Change
      Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International
      Medical Science

      British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research
      British Journal of Pharmaceutical Research
      Cardiology and Angiology: An International Journal
      European Journal of Medicinal Plants
      International Blood Research & Reviews
      International Journal of Medical and Pharmaceutical Case Reports
      International Journal of TROPICAL DISEASE & Health
      International Neuropsychiatric Disease Journal
      International STD Research & Reviews
      Journal of Advances in Medical and Pharmaceutical Sciences
      Journal of Cancer and Tumor International
      Ophthalmology Research: An International Journal

      Advances in Research
      Archives of Current Research International
      British Journal of Applied Science & Technology
      Journal of Scientific Research and Reports
      Physical Science

      American Chemical Science Journal
      British Journal of Mathematics & Computer Science
      International Research Journal of Pure and Applied Chemistry
      Physical Science International Journal
      Social Science

      Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology
      British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade
      British Journal of Education, Society & Behavioural Science


  3. robinedwards36 · February 9, 2016

    It’s refreshing to come across a truly objective article. Well done to the authors. I’m with you all the way, and hope to get in touch with you.
    Robin Edwards


  4. songhees · February 9, 2016

    Latest book and documentary.
    ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.

    Debate between Dr Tim Ball and Elizabeth May
    Scroll down to Ian Jessop part 1


  5. Dennis Pearce · February 9, 2016

    Unfortunately, the economic and political damage that is being perpetrated in the name of climate alarmism is continuing to have negative influences on Canada, the USA and other nations.


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