After a sub-par March maximum, 2026 Arctic ice in ensuing months closed the gap with the 20-year average.  In August MASIE showed Arctic ice extent surplus to average.  September Arctic ice added to the surplus and now during the annual minimum month of September 2026 there is Arctic ice aplenty at the day 260 average daily minimum.

During the annual dip in Arctic ice extent, the average year since 2006 is lowest on day 260 at 4.54M km2.  It then rises to 4.8M km2 ten days later.  The cyan line shows 2026 well above average throughout, its lowest extent at 4.74M km2 on day 257 and now up to 4.85M km2.  SII v.4 was lower than MASIE throughout, but drew closer in recent days before ending 219k km2 in deficit. So far MASIE September average is 4.97M and SII is 4.64M, with 13 more days remaining in the month. Note 2007 was ~600k km2 in deficit to average at day 270, while last year was matching this one.

The regional distribution of ice extents is shown in the table below. (Bering and Okhotsk seas are excluded since both are now virtually open water.)

Region	2026260	Day 260 ave.	2026-Ave.	2007260	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4852660	4544944	307716	4045776	806884
(1) Beaufort_Sea	550955	480711	70244	481384	69571
(2) Chukchi_Sea	320625	183714	136911	22527	298099
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	268872	267297	1575	311	268561
(4) Laptev_Sea	208038	141784	66254	235869	-27831
(5) Kara_Sea	18	28526	-28508	44067	-44049
(6) Barents_Sea	0	13149	-13149	7420	-7420
(7) Greenland_Sea	217002	185684	31318	333181	-116179
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	51076	32165	18910	26703	24373
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	321919	273658	48261	225526	96393
(10) Hudson_Bay	16	4458	-4442	2270	-2254
(11) Central_Arctic	2912997	2932816	-19819	2665244	247753

The table shows large surpluses in Eurasian basins  Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort, more than offsetting smaller deficits in Central Arctic, Kara and Barents seas. Hudson Bay is mostly open water at this time of year. 2026 exceeds the average ice extents by 308k km2, or 7%, and is nearly a wadham greater than 2007 with a surplus of 0.808M km2 of ice extent.

September monthly average ice extent is considered the annual minimum for climate purposes.  Note also that typically the lowest daily value occurs mid September, with a small positive gain between the end of August and end of September.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher  temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post SH Drives UAH Temps Cooler July 2025.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

Footnote Regarding  SII v.4

NSDIC acknowledged my query regarding the SII (Sea Ice Index) dataset. While awaiting an explanation I investigated further. My last download of the SII Daily Arctic Ice Extents was on July 30, meaning that the most recent data in that file was day 210, July 29. The header on that file was Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.

Then on August 1, the downloaded file had the heading Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v4. So it appears that these are now the values from a new version of SII. As I wrote in my query, since March 14 all of the values for Arctic Ice Extents are lower in this new record. The graph above shows the implications for August as an example of estimates from SIIv.4.

In the past, SIIv.3 tracked MASIE with slightly lower values.  But with v.4, larger monthly average deficits to MASIE were reported in July 2025 ( -282k km2) and in August (-440k km2).

The change started in January 2025 and will be the basis for future reporting.  The logic for this is presented in this document: Sea Ice Index Version 4 Analysis

In June 2025, NSIDC was informed that access to data from the Special Sensor Microwave
Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)
satellites would end on July 31 (NSIDC, 2025). To prepare for this, we rapidly developed version
4 of the Sea Ice Index. This new version transitions from using sea ice concentration fields
derived from SSMIS data as input to using fields derived from the Advanced Microwave
Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor onboard the Global Change Observation Mission – W1
(GCOM-W1) satellite.  On 29 July 2025, we learned that the Defense Department decision to terminate access to DMSP data had been reversed and that data will continue to be available until September 2026.

We are publishing Version 4, however, for these reasons:

• The SSMIS instruments are well past their designed lifespan and a transition to
AMSR2 is inevitable. Unless the sensors fail earlier, the DoD will formally end the
program in September 2026.
• Although access of SSMIS will continue through September 2026, the Fleet
Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), where SSMIS data
from the DMSP satellite are downloaded, made an announcement that “Support
will be on a best effort basis and should be considered data of opportunity.” This
means that SSMIS data will likely contain data gaps.
• We have developer time to make this transition now and may not in the future.
• We are confident that Version 4 data are commensurate in accuracy to those
provided by Version 3.

The chart above from DMI shows why Arctic ice melted more slowly than average. This year the daily mean temperature never went above freezing, From now on it will only grow colder.  The daily minimum may have occured already on Sept. 7 with an ice extent of 4.9M km2.

August is significant because it is the last month that NH ice extent declines.  Those familar with the datasets know that March monthly average is taken as the annual maximum ice extent, and September monthly average serves as the annual minimum. Importantly both months are neutral, i.e. the ice extent values are nearly the same at the month start and end.  All the melting occurs April to August, all the freezing October to February.

[ It reminds me what a Saskatchewan grain farmer told me: “Around here we only have AAA farmers”. I asked what he meant and he replied: “April to August and then Arizona.”]

The arctic ice extents are now reported through September 11, 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex had hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with July extents closing the gap with the averages. Melting ceased after Sept. 7 and is now ~5.0M km2. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

The image from  September 11 shows the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while the Eurasian NSR now has open water on the left vertical side, including passages through Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left).  As usual in August, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right).  At this point Canadian Archipelago has opened up the eastern end of the NW passage, but has extensive old ice as well as growing additional fast ice in Beaufort sea (bottom center). Canadian Ice Service latest conditions along the Alaskan coast include an ice warning for ships:

The chart below shows the 20-year August averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average ice extents hover around 4.6M km2 ending this period. In this period MASIE was well above average throughout currently hovering around 5.0 M km2, and comparable to 2025. SII v.4 continues to greatly underestimate Arctic ice extent, presently ~0.35M km2 lower than MASIE. All of these are higher than 2007.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 254 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026254	Day 254 ave.	2026-Ave.	2007254	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4948149	4643810	304340	4349612	598537
(1) Beaufort_Sea	659822	502590	157231	599679	60143
(2) Chukchi_Sea	344007	216432	127575	74733	269274
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	277773	292941	-15168	311	277462
(4) Laptev_Sea	213926	155123	58803	247496	-33569
(5) Kara_Sea	18	33322	-33304	62274	-62255
(6) Barents_Sea	0	14658	-14658	7384	-7384
(7) Greenland_Sea	192766	176959	15807	324789	-132023
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	39619	28358	11261	21406	18213
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	302503	273010	29493	210083	92420
(10) Hudson_Bay	16	6972	-6956	16552	-16536
(11) Central_Arctic	2916558	2942564	-26006	2783651	132907

The table shows an overall surplus of 304k km2 or 7%, and more than a half wadham greater than 2007. Many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficit is in  Kara Sea. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The chart above from DMI shows why Arctic ice melted more slowly than average. This year the daily mean temperature never went above freezing, From now on it will only grow colder.  August is significant because it is the last month that NH ice extent declines.  Those familar with the datasets know that March monthly average is taken as the annual maximum ice extent, and September monthly average serves as the annual minimum. Importantly both months are neutral, i.e. the ice extent values are nearly the same at the month start and end.  All the melting occurs April to August, all the freezing October to February.

[ It reminds me what a Saskatchewan grain farmer told me: “Around here we only have AAA farmers”. I asked what he meant and he replied: “April to August and then Arizona.”]

The arctic ice extents are now reported through August 31, 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex had hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with July extents closing the gap with the averages. August ends with ice extents well above the 20-year average. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

The image from  August 31 shows the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while the Eurasian NSR now has open water on the left vertical side, including passages through Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left).  As usual in August, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right).  At this point Canadian Archipelago has opened up the eastern end of the NW passage, but still has extensive fast ice in Beaufort sea (bottom center). Canadian Ice Service latest conditions along the Alaskan coast include an ice warning for ships:

The chart below shows the 20-year August averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average during this period 1.9M km2 of ice extent is lost. In August, MASIE was above average the last 3 weeks, showing considerable surplus ice end of August.   SII v.4 continues to greatly underestimate Arctic ice extent, ending this period  ~0.5M km2 lower than MASIE, or half a Wadham in deficit.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 243 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026243	Day 243 Ave	2026-Ave.	2007243	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	5320736	4960255	360481	4827899	492837
(1) Beaufort_Sea	734913	573741	161172	688338	46574
(2) Chukchi_Sea	424517	290417	134100	123559	300958
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	369883	370301	-417	311	369572
(4) Laptev_Sea	316828	174987	141840	273250	43578
(5) Kara_Sea	6471	46663	-40192	104111	-97641
(6) Barents_Sea	0	15154	-15154	9657	-9657
(7) Greenland_Sea	142412	164671	-22259	344052	-201641
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	36105	29325	6780	37456	-1352
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	315921	297208	18713	263154	52766
(10) Hudson_Bay	16	20010	-19994	40797	-40781
(11) Central_Arctic	2972584	2976914	-4330	2941956	30628

The table shows an overall surplus of 360k km2 or 7%, and almost a half wadham greater than 2007. Many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficit is in  Greenland Sea. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The chart above from DMI shows why Arctic ice is melting slowly. This year the daily mean temperature never went above freezing, From now on it will only grow colder.  August is significant because it is the last month that NH ice extent declines.  Those familar with the datasets know that March monthly average is taken as the annual maximum ice extent, and September monthly average serves as the annual minimum. Importantly both months are neutral, i.e. the ice extent values are nearly the same at the month start and  end.  All the melting occurs April to August, all the freezing October to February.

[ It reminds me what a Saskatchewan grain farmer told me: “Around here we only have AAA farmers”. I asked what he meant and he replied: “April to August and then Arizona.”]

The arctic ice extents are now reported through August 15, 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex had hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with July and August extents closing the gap with the averages. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

The image from  August 15 shows the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while parts of the Eurasian NSR have open water on the left vertical side. Ice persists in Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left).  As usual in August, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right).  At this point Canadian Archipelago has opened up the eastern end of the NW passage, but still has extensive fast ice in Beaufort sea (bottom center)

The chart below shows the 20-year Mid August averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average during this period 2.4M km2 of ice extent is lost. In August, MASIE tracked average throughout, before showing surplus ice the last week.  SII v.4 continues to greatly underestimate Arctic ice extent, ending this period  0.73M km2 lower than MASIE, nearly 3/4 of a Wadham in deficit.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 227 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026227	Day 227 ave	2026-Ave.	2007227	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	6081763	5893684	188079	5673110	408653
(1) Beaufort_Sea	924043	717443	206601	770413	153630
(2) Chukchi_Sea	666327	442909	223417	260048	406278
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	489246	566073	-76828	172718	316527
(4) Laptev_Sea	417965	244265	173700	292592	125373
(5) Kara_Sea	53320	90006	-36686	201115	-147794
(6) Barents_Sea	36	20953	-20917	17324	-17288
(7) Greenland_Sea	137031	217917	-80886	316155	-179124
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	62564	57852	4712	86165	-23600
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	387590	403530	-15941	375984	11606
(10) Hudson_Bay	18844	63303	-44459	91653	-72809
(11) Central_Arctic	2923673	3068368	-144694	3087687	-164013

The table shows that many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficits are in East Siberian, Greenland Sea and Central Arctic. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual. Note 2026 is 3% above average and 409k km2 higher than 2007.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The arctic ice extents are now reported through July 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with extents closing the gap with the averages. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

As the image from July 31 shows, the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while parts of the Eurasian NSR have open water on the left vertical side. Ice persists in Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left).  As usual in July, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right).  Canadian Archipelago retains considerable ice cover.

The chart below shows the 20-year July averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average during this period 2.7M km2 of ice extent is lost. MASIE tracked average throughout, slipping below mid month, before ending July with a slight surplus.  SII v.4 continues to underestimate Arctic ice extent, ending July 0.4M km2 in deficit to MASIE, and down 338k km2 for the July month average.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 212 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026212	Day 212 AVe	2026-Ave.	2007212	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	6931831	6921789	10042	6344860	586971
(1) Beaufort_Sea	996685	800758	195927	760576	236109
(2) Chukchi_Sea	749028	558330	190698	382350	366678
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	668170	748092	-79922	445385	222785
(4) Laptev_Sea	508311	368784	139527	314382	193929
(5) Kara_Sea	113891	160107	-46216	239232	-125340
(6) Barents_Sea	36	28134	-28098	23703	-23667
(7) Greenland_Sea	131468	293251	-161783	324737	-193270
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	107049	149072	-42023	94179	12870
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	561573	543590	17983	510063	51510
(10) Hudson_Bay	114812	136490	-21678	93655	21158
(11) Central_Arctic	2978659	3133437	-154778	3154837	-176178

The table shows that many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The Eurasian shelf seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficits are Greenland Sea and Central Arctic. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The arctic ice extents are now reported through mid-July 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with extents closing the gap with the averages. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

As the image from July 15 shows, despite the melting on the margins, the Arctic Ocean core is solid, expecially along the Eurasian NSR seen on the left vertical side. Some open water is appearing in Laptev (top left) and East Siberian sea (mid Left), but still extensive land fast ice.  As usual mid July, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is mostly open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right).  Canadain Archipelago remains largely ice covered.

The chart below shows the 20-year mid July averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average during this period 2.4M km2 of ice extent is lost.  By comparison SII v.4 lost 2.6M and MASIE lost 2.2M. In other words, MASIE 2026 ice melt is just one day ahead of average.

Note the deficit to average mid-June was ~400k km2 but since then 2026 extents tracked close to average before ending down 110k km2. SII tracked close to MASIE last half of June, but as we have seen in previous months SII v.4 lost a lot of ice in the last two weeks ending 338k km2 lower than MASIE, or 1/3 of a Wadham.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 196 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026196	Day 196 Average	2026-Ave.	2007196	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8230702	8340811	-110110	8354527	-123825
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1044469	874320	170149	845938	198531
(2) Chukchi_Sea	781718	647606	134112	576079	205639
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	908640	924076	-15436	788128	120513
(4) Laptev_Sea	719818	563593	156224	575520	144298
(5) Kara_Sea	245022	350290	-105268	483785	-238762
(6) Barents_Sea	36	53993	-53957	75731	-75695
(7) Greenland_Sea	321463	401993	-80531	472890	-151428
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	267821	309518	-41696	342503	-74682
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	719994	707260	12734	730894	-10900
(10) Hudson_Bay	184771	339584	-154813	248785	-64014
(11) Central_Arctic	3034736	3164687	-129951	3211275	-176539

The table shows that many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The Eurasian shelf seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The majority of the 1.3% overall deficit is from Hudson Bay, Central Arctic, Kara and Greenland seas.  Excepting Central Arctic, those regions will be ice-free end of summer. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The arctic ice extents are now reported through end of June 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with extents closing the gap with the averages. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

As the image from yesterday shows, despite some melting on the margins, the Arctic Ocean core is solid, expecially along the Eurasian NSR seen on the left vertical side. As usual end of June, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is opening to water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right)

The chart below shows the 20-year June averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average June loses 2M km2 of ice extent.  By comparison SII v.4 lost 2.3M and MASIE lost 1.7M. In other words, MASIE 2026 ice melt is just two days ahead of average.

Note the deficit to average mid-month was ~400k km2 but since then 2026 extents tracked close to average before ending down 142k km2. SII tracked close to MASIE first half of June, but as we have seen in previous months SII v.4 lost a lot of ice in the last two weeks ending 504k km2 lower than MASIE, or half a Wadham.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 181 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026181	Dasy 181 ave	2026-Ave.	2007181	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	9606298	9748505	-142207	9672969	-66671
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1050375	932169	118205	939209	111165
(2) Chukchi_Sea	836066	736703	99363	670088	165978
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	978394	1013254	-34859	901963	76431
(4) Laptev_Sea	818505	701277	117228	658742	159762
(5) Kara_Sea	490236	542563	-52328	657478	-167242
(6) Barents_Sea	16225	113543	-97318	130101	-113876
(7) Greenland_Sea	418285	504228	-85944	548399	-130114
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	379841	522139	-142297	450461	-70619
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	812857	775268	37588	773611	39246
(10) Hudson_Bay	650307	683587	-33280	718441	-68134
(11) Central_Arctic	3140155	3201754	-61599	3218999	-78844
(12) Bering_Sea	17	8137	-8120	981	-964
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	3	-3	0	0
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	13845	12549	1296	2983	10862

The table shows that most regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The Eurasian shelf seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The majority of the 1.5% overall deficit is from Baffin Bay, Barents, and Greenland seas.  All of those regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The arctic ice extents are now reported through Mid-June 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, and extents have mostly closed the gap with the averages. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

 

As the image from yesterday shows, despite some melting on the margins, and a bit of open water in East Siberian sea, the Arctic Ocean core is solid, expecially along the Eurasian NSR seen on the left vertical side.

The chart below shows the 20-year Mid-June averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4.

 

The deficit to average was as large as 440k km2 (day 156) to 739k km2, but since then the gap was halved  142k km2, before ending this period at 201k, or a deficit of 1.8%.  SII tracked close to MASIE throughout.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 165 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026165	Dday 165 Ave.	2026-Ave.	2025165	2026-2025
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10696425	10897539	-201114	10567590	128835
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1042387	977664	64724	1069789	-27402
(2) Chukchi_Sea	879186	811784	67402	884719	-5533
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1040050	1051599	-11549	1050151	-10101
(4) Laptev_Sea	845784	768965	76819	714429	131355
(5) Kara_Sea	788382	716558	71824	589168	199214
(6) Barents_Sea	68324	203502	-135178	111023	-42699
(7) Greenland_Sea	473392	582910	-109518	548170	-74778
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	595439	727315	-131876	683063	-87624
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	837498	797884	39614	825305	12193
(10) Hudson_Bay	957932	967494	-9562	881108	76824
(11) Central_Arctic	3126593	3216681	-90088	3165365	-38772
(12) Bering_Sea	17089	38344	-21255	19646	-2557
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	5	-5	0	0
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	23112	35439	-12327	24010	-898

The table shows that most Eurasian regions are in surplus to the 20-year averages, with a small deficit in East Siberian sea..  The majority of the 2% overall deficit is from Baffin Bay, Barents, and Greenland seas, while Bering, Okhotsk and Baltic seas are as usual mostly open water at this time of year. All of these regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The arctic ice extents are now reported through end of May 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May, and extents have closed the gap with the averages somewhat. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

As the image from yesterday shows, despite some melting on the margins, the Arctic Ocean core is solid, expecially along the Eurasian NSR seen on the left vertical side.

The chart below shows the 20-year May averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2006 as well as SII v.4.

Remarkably the deficit to average opened up on May 5 (day 125) to 739k km2, but since then the gap was cut to 1/3, reaching 250k km2 on day 145, before ending 439k at month end .  SII tracked close to MASIE, but ended May 150k higher and matching 2006.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 151 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026151	Day 151 Ave.	2026-Ave.	2006151	2026-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11297960	11734791	-436830	11425616	-127655
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1015077	1013073	2004	1063879	-48801
(2) Chukchi_Sea	880665	876472	4192	907609	-26945
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1038006	1066371	-28365	1073889	-35883
(4) Laptev_Sea	838754	826149	12605	856108	-17354
(5) Kara_Sea	873688	826976	46712	848172	25516
(6) Barents_Sea	141624	314200	-172576	180906	-39281
(7) Greenland_Sea	516827	588635	-71808	522040	-5213
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	692121	902041	-209920	721606	-29485
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	830939	814415	16524	800561	30378
(10) Hudson_Bay	1139854	1080088	59765	989550	150304
(11) Central_Arctic	3197949	3220706	-22757	3188696	9253
(12) Bering_Sea	84979	113623	-28645	179378	-94399
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	5749	-5749	720	-720
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	46029	172136	-126107	89739	-43710

The table shows that most regions are close to or above the 20-year average.  The majority of the 4% overall deficit is from Baffin Bay, Barents, Okhotsk and Greenland seas.  All of those regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

The arctic ice extents are now reported through Mid-May 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This was still a factor early in May, but now appears to be receding, according to the AER Polar Vortex blog (May 11).

Judah Cohen:  As I discussed in the previous blog, I do think that the influence from the PV did continue into easrly May, and in fact May so far has been impressively cool in Eastern Canada and the Eastern and less so in parts of Europe (see Figure ii). With more Greenland blocking predicted (see Figure i) is that still the influence of the PV?

From Figure 11, it appears that the influence of the PV split/Final Warming has ended this week with cold/negative polar cap height standardized geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) throughout the stratosphere and tropsophere. Last week I used the PCH limited to the North Atlantic sector to argue the ongoing influence of the PV split and today’s plot (see Figure iii) does not provide any longer an alternative interpretation but rather any further influence of the PV will have to wait until next fall. Though I think this does need to be qualified as my interpretation rather than being fully objective.

The chart below shows the 20-year averages for Arctic ice extents from Mid-April to Mid-May March along with 2026, 2025 and 2006 as well as SII v.4.

Remarkably the deficit to average opened up on May 5 (day 125) to 739k km2, but since then the gap was cut in half, reaching 328k km2 at the end of this period.  The 20-year average maximum daily ice extent loss over this period is 1.5M km2, and in 2026 the decline was 1.2M km2. These are MASIE stats, but SII shows virtually the same results.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 136 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026136	Day 136 Ave.	2026-Ave.	2006136	2026-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12271401	12599588	-328188	12157814	113586
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1071070	1047101	23969	1066139	4931
(2) Chukchi_Sea	940742	927240	13502	956734	-15992
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1065475	1081524	-16050	1074876	-9402
(4) Laptev_Sea	872186	878598	-6412	889990	-17804
(5) Kara_Sea	917017	873944	43073	839569	77448
(6) Barents_Sea	344186	411348	-67162	182554	161632
(7) Greenland_Sea	549259	621605	-72346	519337	29922
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	917090	1054954	-137865	892335	24755
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853177	841640	11537	828806	24370
(10) Hudson_Bay	1176685	1172007	4677	1071342	105343
(11) Central_Arctic	3212502	3223772	-11270	3169225	43277
(12) Bering_Sea	248490	285726	-37236	478464	-229973
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	5749	-5749	15239	-15239
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	101440	172136	-70695	168615	-67174

The table shows that most regions are close to or above the 20-year average.  The majority of the 3% overall deficit is from Baffin Bay, down 138k km2,  Smaller deficits are in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland seas.  All of those regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.