Fear Not! Arctic Ice Tops 10 Wadhams in November 2022

Arctic Ice Roaring Back Following Halloween

The animation shows Arctic ice recovery from October 10 to October 31, 2022. On the lower center right, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) freezes over entirely more than doubling up to 832k km2, 97% of its maximum.  Center bottom Beaufort Sea closes off the NW passage, reaching 1 Wadham in just that basin, 95% of its max.  On the left, the Russian shelf seas fill with ice, closing off the Northern Sea Route.  Laptev and East Siberian seas reached 100% of their maxes, together adding 2 Wadhams of ice extent.

The graph below shows Mid November daily ice extents for 2022 compared to 16 year averages, and some years of note. As of yesterday, Arctic ice extent tops 10 Wadhams, or 10M km2.

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents increase ~3.5M km2 from ~6.4M km2 up to ~9.9M km2.  The 2022 cyan MASIE line started the month 90k km2 above average and on day 320 increased its surplus to 200k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) tracked MASIE the entire month with slightly lower extents. 2007 started with an 700k km2 deficit, but ended virtually average. 2020 had the lowest extent in the record, starting 1.1M km2 down and ending 600k km2 in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Still No Global Warming March 2022

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 320 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region 2022320 Day 320 Average 2022-Ave. 2007320 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 10072814 9872802 200012 9824193 248621
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1051741 1065159 -13418 1059182 -7441
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 606810 653669 -46859 519486 87324
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1077200 9937 1055581 31557
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897567 278 897845 0
 (5) Kara_Sea 716470 671740 44729 774297 -57827
 (6) Barents_Sea 121787 166029 -44242 149482 -27695
 (7) Greenland_Sea 463580 470580 -7000 533946 -70365
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 693335 527100 166236 545899 147437
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854843 851090 3753 852539 2304
 (10) Hudson_Bay 315416 250421 64995 244531 70885
 (11) Central_Arctic 3178409 3176760 1649 3163043 15366

The overall surplus to average is 200k km2, (2%).  Small deficits in Chukchi and Barents seas are more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, especially Baffin and Hudson Bays and Kara sea. 2022 ice extent exceeds that of 2007 by 1/4 Wadham, most of the difference being in Chukchi and Baffin Bay.

bathymetric_map_arctic_ocean

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Arctic Ice Roars Back October 2022

Arctic Halloween Ice Roaring Back

 

The animation shows the last 3 weeks of Arctic ice recovery, from October 10 to October 31, 2022. On the lower center right, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) freezes over entirely more than doubling up to 832k km2, 97% of its maximum.  Center bottom Beaufort Sea closes off the NW passage, reaching 1 Wadham in just that basin, 95% of its max.  On the left, the Russian shelf seas fill with ice, closing off the Northern Sea Route.  Laptev and East Siberian seas reached 100% of their maxes, together adding 2 Wadhams of ice extent.

The graph below shows October daily ice extents for 2022 compared to 16 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during October on average Arctic ice extents increase ~3.4M km2 from ~5.0M km2 up to ~8.4M km2.  The 2022 cyan MASIE line started the month 145k km2 above average and on day 304 increased its surplus to 327k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) tracked MASIE the entire month with slightly lower extents. 2007 started October with an 800k km2 deficit, but ended just 200k km2 below average. 2020 had the lowest extent in the record, ending October 1.76M km2 in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Still No Global Warming March 2022

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 304 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region 2022304 Day 304 Average 2022-Ave. 2007304 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 8707579 8404827 302753 8175072 532507
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1017033 953449 63585 1038126 -21093
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 460109 454653 5456 242685 217425
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1085823 927639 158184 835071 250751
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897737 839256 58481 887789 9947
 (5) Kara_Sea 390948 478957 -88009 311960 78988
 (6) Barents_Sea 38855 86254 -47399 52823 -13968
 (7) Greenland_Sea 430536 411663 18872 443559 -13023
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 378895 248578 130317 289374 89522
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 832064 758077 73987 817220 14844
 (10) Hudson_Bay 21011 72517 -51507 48845 -27835
 (11) Central_Arctic 3130729 3162928 -32199 3206345 -75616

The overall surplus to average is 303k km2, (4%).  Note large surpluses of ice in Beaufort and East Siberian seas,  as well as in Laptev, CAA and Baffin Bay. The main deficits to average are in Kara, Barents and Hudson Bay, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere. Note that 2022 ice extent exceeds that of 2007 by more than half a Wadham, most of the difference being in Chukchi, East Siberian, Kara and Baffin Bay.

bathymetric_map_arctic_ocean

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

16 yr. Plateau September Arctic Ice 2022

September daily extents are now fully reported and the 2022 September monthly results can be compared with those of the previous 15 years.  MASIE showed 2022 at 5.1M km2  and SII was close behind, reaching 4.9M for the month.  Analysis below shows that the 2022 Minimum was ~ 300k km2 higher than the 15 year average, and on day 273, this year was 1.2 Wadhams (1 M km2) more than 2007.  The 16 yr. trendlines are virtually flat and matching the averages for the period.

In June, 4.6M km2 was the median estimate for the September monthly average extent from the SIPN (Sea Ice Prediction Network) who use the reports from SII (Sea Ice Index), the NASA team satellite product from passive microwave sensors. The SII actual ice extent was 300k km2 higher than estimated.

The graph below shows September comparisons through day 273 (Sept. 30).

Note that MASIE was higher than average throughout September, with a brief minimum slightly after day 260, before increasing the surplus in the last half. SII tracked much lower before rising close to MASIE at the end.  The other years, 2007 and 2020 were much lower than average. The animation below shows the ice extents for the last twelve days, depicting the ice recovery since day 261.

Note the ice in Canadian Arctic Archipelago (lower center) increasing rapidly, doubling from 175k km2 to 367k km2.

The table shows ice extents in the regions for 2022, 15 year averages and 2007 for day 273. Averages refer to 2007 through 2020 inclusive.

Region 2022273 Day 273 Average 2022-Ave. 2007273 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 5259935 4969083 290853 4086883 1173053
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 652439 567821 84618 498743 153696
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 186014 219952 -33938 51 185963
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 381043 309836 71207 311 380732
 (4) Laptev_Sea 228810 151002 77808 235245 -6434
 (5) Kara_Sea 29831 34778 -4947 15367 14464
 (6) Barents_Sea 217 15648 -15430 4851 -4633
 (7) Greenland_Sea 283444 238081 45364 353210 -69766
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 89205 53386 35819 42247 46957
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 367175 392202 -25028 307135 60040
 (10) Hudson_Bay 0 3627 -3627 1936 -1936
 (11) Central_Arctic 3040615 2981627 58988 2626511 414104

The only deficits are small ones in Chukchi and CAA, more than offset by surpluses in Beaufort, Laptev, East Siberian and Greenland Seas, along with  Baffin and Central Arctic.   Overall, the NH ice extent is surplus by 290k km2 or 6% over 15 year average.

Summary

Earlier observations showed that Arctic ice extents were low in the 1940s, grew thereafter up to a peak in 1977, before declining.  That decline was gentle until 1996 which started a decade of multi-year ice loss through the Fram Strait.  There was also a major earthquake under the north pole in that period.  In any case, the effects and the decline ceased in 2007, 30 years after the previous peak.  Now we have a plateau in ice extents, which could be the precursor of a growing phase of the quasi-60 year Arctic ice oscillation.

Background 

A commenter previously asked, where do they get their data? The answer is primarily from NIC’s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). From the documentation, the multiple sources feeding IMS are:

Platform(s) AQUA, DMSP, DMSP 5D-3/F17, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13, GOES-9, METEOSAT, MSG, MTSAT-1R, MTSAT-2, NOAA-14, NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, NOAA-18, NOAA-N, RADARSAT-2, SUOMI-NPP, TERRA

Sensor(s): AMSU-A, ATMS, AVHRR, GOES I-M IMAGER, MODIS, MTSAT 1R Imager, MTSAT 2 Imager, MVIRI, SAR, SEVIRI, SSM/I, SSMIS, VIIRS

Summary: IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) has an extensive history of monitoring snow and ice coverage.Accurate monitoring of global snow/ice cover is a key component in the study of climate and global change as well as daily weather forecasting.

The Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs (POES/GOES) operated by NESDIS provide invaluable visible and infrared spectral data in support of these efforts. Clear-sky imagery from both the POES and the GOES sensors show snow/ice boundaries very well; however, the visible and infrared techniques may suffer from persistent cloud cover near the snowline, making observations difficult (Ramsay, 1995). The microwave products (DMSP and AMSR-E) are unobstructed by clouds and thus can be used as another observational platform in most regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery also provides all-weather, near daily capacities to discriminate sea and lake ice. With several other derived snow/ice products of varying accuracy, such as those from NCEP and the NWS NOHRSC, it is highly desirable for analysts to be able to interactively compare and contrast the products so that a more accurate composite map can be produced.

The Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS first began generating Northern Hemisphere Weekly Snow and Ice Cover analysis charts derived from the visible satellite imagery in November, 1966. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the analysis (190 km and 7 days, respectively) remained unchanged for the product’s 33-year lifespan.

As a result of increasing customer needs and expectations, it was decided that an efficient, interactive workstation application should be constructed which would enable SAB to produce snow/ice analyses at a higher resolution and on a daily basis (~25 km / 1024 x 1024 grid and once per day) using a consolidated array of new as well as existing satellite and surface imagery products. The Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover chart has been produced since February, 1997 by SAB meteorologists on the IMS.

Another large resolution improvement began in early 2004, when improved technology allowed the SAB to begin creation of a daily ~4 km (6144×6144) grid. At this time, both the ~4 km and ~24 km products are available from NSIDC with a slight delay. Near real-time gridded data is available in ASCII format by request.

In March 2008, the product was migrated from SAB to the National Ice Center (NIC) of NESDIS. The production system and methodology was preserved during the migration. Improved access to DMSP, SAR, and modeled data sources is expected as a short-term from the migration, with longer term plans of twice daily production, GRIB2 output format, a Southern Hemisphere analysis, and an expanded suite of integrated snow and ice variable on horizon.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ims_1.html

Footnote

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year’s charts can not be compared with another year?

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset

 

2022 Arctic Ice Abounds at Average Daily Minimum

The annual competition between ice and water in the Arctic ocean has reached the maximum for water, which typically occurs mid September.  After that, diminishing energy from the slowly setting sun allows oceanic cooling causing ice to regenerate. Those interested in the dynamics of Arctic sea ice can read numerous posts here.  This post provides a look at mid September from 2007 to yesterday as a context for understanding this year’s annual minimum.

The image above shows Arctic ice extents on day 260 (lowest annual daily extent on average) from 2007 to 2022 yesterday.  Obviously, the regions vary as locations for ice, discussed in more detail later on. The animation shows the ice deficits in years 2007, 2012, 2016 and 2020, as well as surplus years like 2010, 2014 and the last two years, 2021-2022.

Note that for climate purposes the annual minimum is measured by the September monthly average ice extent, since the daily extents vary and will go briefly lowest on or about day 260. In a typical year the overall ice extent will end September slightly higher than at the beginning. Remarkably 2022 September ice extent averaged 5.1M over the first 17 days, and is likely to end the month with at least that amount for the entire month. For comparison, the 15 year average for Sept. 1-17 is 4.7M.

The melting season mid August to mid September shows 2022 melted slower than average and ended the period above the average.

Firstly note that on average this period shows ice declining 1.24 M km2 down to 4.52M km2, the minimum average daily extent for the year.  But 2022 started 230k km2 higher, and on day 244 was 606k km2 above average, before ending on day 260 with a surplus of 212k km2   The extents in Sea Ice Index in orange  were mostly lower during the period. The table for day 260 shows how large are the 2022 surpluses and how the ice is distributed across the various seas comprising the Arctic Ocean.   The surplus this year over 2007 is nearly 0.7 of a Wadham (1M km2 ice extent). The surplus is ~5% above average.

Region 2022260 Day 260 Average 2022-Ave. 2007260 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 4735485 4523606 211878 4045776 689709
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 551558 498415 53142 481384 70174
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 135794 171467 -35673 22527 113267
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 305100 263291 41809 311 304789
 (4) Laptev_Sea 182035 119373 62662 235869 -53834
 (5) Kara_Sea 20413 31966 -11553 44067 -23654
 (6) Barents_Sea 326 16326 -15999 7420 -7094
 (7) Greenland_Sea 249159 184219 64940 333181 -84022
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 24537 29138 -4601 26703 -2165
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 185541 285070 -99529 225526 -39984
 (10) Hudson_Bay 0 5149 -5149 2270 -2270
 (11) Central_Arctic 3080350 2918177 162173 2665244 415107

The main deficit to average is in CAA with a smaller loss in Chukchi, overcome by surpluses almost everywhere, especially in Central Arctic along with Laptev and Greenland seas. And as discussed below, the marginal basins have little ice left to lose.

The Bigger Picture 

We are close to the annual Arctic ice extent minimum, which typically occurs on or about day 260 (mid September). Some take any year’s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image above shows the Arctic heart is beating clear and strong.

Over this decade, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, but since 2007 looks like fluctuations around a plateau. By mid-September, all the peripheral seas have turned to water, and the residual ice shows up in a few places. The table below indicates where we can expect to find ice this September. Numbers are area units of Mkm2 (millions of square kilometers).

Day 260 15 year
Arctic Regions 2007 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2020 2021 Average 2022
Central Arctic Sea 2.67 3.16 2.64 2.98 3.07 2.97 2.50 2.95 2.90 3.08
BCE 0.50 1.08 0.31 1.38 0.84 0.46 0.65 1.55 0.89 0.99
LKB 0.29 0.24 0.02 0.19 0.26 0.11 0.01 0.13 0.16 0.20
Greenland & CAA 0.56 0.41 0.41 0.55 0.52 0.36 0.59 0.50 0.46 0.43
B&H Bays 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.02
NH Total 4.05 4.91 3.40 5.13 4.76 3.91 3.77 5.17 4.48 4.73

The table includes some early years of note along with the last 4 years compared to the 15 year average for five contiguous arctic regions. BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) on the Asian side are quite variable as the largest source of ice other than the Central Arctic itself.   Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) together hold almost 0.5M km2 of ice at annual minimum, fairly consistently.  LKB are the European seas of Laptev, Kara and Barents, a smaller source of ice, but a difference maker some years, as Laptev was in 2016.  Baffin and Hudson Bays are inconsequential as of day 260.

2022 extent of 4.73 is 5% over average, mainly due to surpluses in Central Arctic and BCE

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high (31% in 2022) before growing back the following winter.  In this context, it is foolhardy to project any summer minimum forward to proclaim the end of Arctic ice.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

Arctic Ice Hockey Stick Reappears August End

 

Firstly note that on average August shows ice declining 1.94M km2 down to 4.91M km2. But 2022 started higher and on day 238 was approaching average, before ceasing further ice losses (see HS blade above).  As a result the 2022 August ice extent decline is only 1.54m km2.  The extents in Sea Ice Index in orange  were somewhat lower during the period. The table for day 243 shows a 10% 2022 surplus over average and how the ice is distributed across the various seas comprising the Arctic Ocean.   The surplus this year over 2020 is more than 1 Wadham (1M km2 ice extent).

Region 2022243 Day 243 Average 2022-Ave. 2020243 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 5423812 4937670 486142 4345398 1078414
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 765946 581575 184371 763281 2665
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 337051 263324 73727 212438 124613
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 464187 360036 104151 176996 287191
 (4) Laptev_Sea 209309 158411 50898 1029 208279
 (5) Kara_Sea 23665 49416 -25751 23958 -293
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 18330 -18330 0 0
 (7) Greenland_Sea 216732 167036 49696 192361 24370
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 38231 25602 12628 5016 33215
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 301559 311236 -9677 273116 28443
 (10) Hudson_Bay 2870 23416 -20545 23611 -20740
 (11) Central_Arctic 3064128 2978402 85726 2672904 391224

There are only a few small deficits to average overcome by surpluses almost everywhere, especially in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian seas), as well as Central Arctic, Laptev and Greenland Sea.  And as discussed below, the marginal basins have little ice left to lose.

The Bigger Picture 

The annual competition between ice and water in the Arctic ocean is approaching the maximum for water, which typically occurs mid September.  After that, diminishing energy from the slowly setting sun allows oceanic cooling causing ice to regenerate. Those interested in the dynamics of Arctic sea ice can read numerous posts here.  This post provides a look at  August from 2007 to yesterday as a context for anticipating this year’s annual minimum.  Note that for climate purposes the annual minimum is measured by the September monthly average ice extent, since the daily extents vary and will go briefly lowest on or about day 260.

The large August surplus in 2022 is significant:  In a typical year the overall ice extent will end September slightly higher than at the beginning.

We are close to the annual Arctic ice extent minimum, which typically occurs on or about day 260 (mid September). Some take any year’s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image above shows the Arctic heart is beating clear and strong.

Over this decade, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, but since 2007 looks like fluctuations around a plateau. By mid-September, all the peripheral seas have turned to water, and the residual ice shows up in a few places. The table below indicates where we can expect to find ice this September. Numbers are area units of Mkm2 (millions of square kilometers).

Day 260 15 year
Arctic Regions 2007 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average
Central Arctic Sea 2.67 3.16 2.98 2.93 2.92 3.07 2.91 2.97 2.50 2.95 2.90
BCE 0.50 1.08 1.38 0.89 0.52 0.84 1.16 0.46 0.65 1.55 0.89
LKB 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.05 0.28 0.26 0.02 0.11 0.01 0.13 0.15
Greenland & CAA 0.56 0.41 0.55 0.46 0.45 0.52 0.41 0.36 0.59 0.50 0.47
B&H Bays 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03
NH Total 4.05 4.91 5.13 4.44 4.20 4.76 4.56 3.91 3.77 5.17 4.44

The table includes two early years of note along with the last 8 years compared to the 15 year average for five contiguous arctic regions. BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) on the Asian side are quite variable as the largest source of ice other than the Central Arctic itself.   Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) together hold almost 0.5M km2 of ice at annual minimum, fairly consistently.  LKB are the European seas of Laptev, Kara and Barents, a smaller source of ice, but a difference maker some years, as Laptev was in 2016.  Baffin and Hudson Bays are inconsequential as of day 260.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.  In this context, it is foolhardy to project any summer minimum forward to proclaim the end of Arctic ice.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

Abundant August Arctic Ice with 2022 Minimum Outlook

The images above come from AARI (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute) St. Petersburg, Russia. Note how the location of remaining ice at start of August varies greatly from year to year.  The marginal seas are open water, including the Pacific basins, Canadian Bays (Hudson and Baffin), and the Atlantic basins for the most part.  Note ice extent fluctuations especially in Eurasian seas (lower right) and in Can-Am seas (upper right).  Notice the much greater ice extent in 2022 compared to 2020. As discussed later on, some regions retain considerable ice at the annual minimum, with differences year to year. [Note: Images prior to 2008 are in a different format.  AARI Charts are (here)

The annual competition between ice and water in the Arctic ocean is approaching the maximum for water, which typically occurs mid September.  After that, diminishing energy from the slowly setting sun allows oceanic cooling causing ice to regenerate. Those interested in the dynamics of Arctic sea ice can read numerous posts here.  This post provides a look at mid August from 2007 to yesterday as a context for anticipating this year’s annual minimum.  Note that for climate purposes the annual minimum is measured by the September monthly average ice extent, since the daily extents vary and will go briefly lowest on or about day 260. In a typical year the overall ice extent will end September slightly higher than at the beginning.

The melting season mid July to mid August shows 2022 melted slower than average and the month end extents were much higher than average.

Firstly note that on average this period shows ice declining 2.3M km2 down to 5.9M km2. But 2022 started slightly higher and on day 227 was 273k km2 above average. The extents in Sea Ice Index in orange  were somewhat lower during the period. The table for day 227 show how large are the 2022 surpluses and how the ice is distributed across the various seas comprising the Arctic Ocean.   The surplus this year over 2020 is more than 1 Wadham (1M km2 ice extent).

Region 2022227 Day 227 Average 2022-Ave. 2020227 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 6189078 5916128 272950 5162062 1027016
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 887005 713937 173069 838854 48151
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 494679 425089 69591 410757 83922
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 609573 566607 42966 276845 332728
 (4) Laptev_Sea 291275 234785 56490 24033 267241
 (5) Kara_Sea 60113 97484 -37371 22002 38111
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 25520 -25520 3285 -3285
 (7) Greenland_Sea 227813 229100 -1288 265814 -38001
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 135675 53150 82525 12720 122955
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 388671 420628 -31957 366453 22218
 (10) Hudson_Bay 19911 70416 -50505 53142 -33232
 (11) Central_Arctic 3070974 3078423 -7450 2887486 183487

The main deficit to average is in Hudson Bay, with smaller losses in CAA, Kara and Barents seas, overcome by surpluses almost everywhere, especially in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian seas), as well as Laptev and Baffin Bay.  And as discussed below, the marginal basins have little ice left to lose.

The Bigger Picture 

We are close to the annual Arctic ice extent minimum, which typically occurs on or about day 260 (mid September). Some take any year’s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image above shows the Arctic heart is beating clear and strong.

Over this decade, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, but since 2007 looks like fluctuations around a plateau. By mid-September, all the peripheral seas have turned to water, and the residual ice shows up in a few places. The table below indicates where we can expect to find ice this September. Numbers are area units of Mkm2 (millions of square kilometers).

Day 260 15 year
Arctic Regions 2007 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average
Central Arctic Sea 2.67 3.16 2.98 2.93 2.92 3.07 2.91 2.97 2.50 2.95 2.90
BCE 0.50 1.08 1.38 0.89 0.52 0.84 1.16 0.46 0.65 1.55 0.89
LKB 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.05 0.28 0.26 0.02 0.11 0.01 0.13 0.15
Greenland & CAA 0.56 0.41 0.55 0.46 0.45 0.52 0.41 0.36 0.59 0.50 0.47
B&H Bays 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03
NH Total 4.05 4.91 5.13 4.44 4.20 4.76 4.56 3.91 3.77 5.17 4.44

The table includes two early years of note along with the last 8 years compared to the 15 year average for five contiguous arctic regions. BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) on the Asian side are quite variable as the largest source of ice other than the Central Arctic itself.   Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) together hold almost 0.5M km2 of ice at annual minimum, fairly consistently.  LKB are the European seas of Laptev, Kara and Barents, a smaller source of ice, but a difference maker some years, as Laptev was in 2016.  Baffin and Hudson Bays are inconsequential as of day 260.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.  In this context, it is foolhardy to project any summer minimum forward to proclaim the end of Arctic ice.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

Surplus Arctic Ice July 2022

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 212 (end of July) starting with 2007, and showing the lack of decline through yesterday.  Years vary as to which regions retain more or less ice.  For example, some years the Russian shelf seas (left side) are mostly open water on day 212.  Kara and Barents seas (top side) fluctuate.  The Northwest passage (bottom), melts early some years in Beaufort Sea, and CAA, but this year not so much. The graph below compares the July monthly ice extents 2007 to 2022 and compared to the SII 16 year average.

Clearly July ice appears as a plateau, and most years MASIE shows greater extents than SII, with differences of only a few 100k km2.  The previous three years were in deficit to average, but July 2022 has returned to surplus years like 2018.  More on MASIE dataset at the end.

The graph shows the melting pattern during July 2022 remained above average all month, and greatly exceeded 2007 and 2020, especially in the last 2 weeks.  July 31, 2022 was 275k km2 in surplus, and exceeded 2020 by 1.2 Wadhams (M km2).

The table below shows ice extents by regions comparing 2022 with 16-year average (2007 to 2022 inclusive) and 2020.

Region 2022212 Day 212 Average 2022-Ave. 2020212 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 7124997 6849722 275275 5880746 1244251
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 884463 789512 94950 875454 9008
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 575245 525326 49919 533748 41498
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 787982 740081 47901 329453 458529
 (4) Laptev_Sea 297339 365902 -68563 61979 235360
 (5) Kara_Sea 104430 161090 -56660 95539 8891
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 31433 -31433 23940 -23940
 (7) Greenland_Sea 292278 291488 790 282403 9875
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 281955 130715 151240 35368 246587
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 633235 540268 92967 515499 117735
 (10) Hudson_Bay 169704 135947 33757 92861 76844
 (11) Central_Arctic 3096938 3136284 -39347 3033706 63232

2022 is 275k km2 above average (4%). The main deficits are in Laptev and Kara seas, more than offset by 151k km2 surplus in Baffin Bay, along with additional ice in CAA, and an icy BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian seas).

Footnote on MASIE Data Sources:

MASIE reports are based on data primarily from NIC’s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). From the documentation, the multiple sources feeding IMS are:

Platform(s) AQUA, DMSP, DMSP 5D-3/F17, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13, GOES-9, METEOSAT, MSG, MTSAT-1R, MTSAT-2, NOAA-14, NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, NOAA-18, NOAA-N, RADARSAT-2, SUOMI-NPP, TERRA

Sensor(s): AMSU-A, ATMS, AVHRR, GOES I-M IMAGER, MODIS, MTSAT 1R Imager, MTSAT 2 Imager, MVIRI, SAR, SEVIRI, SSM/I, SSMIS, VIIRS

Summary: IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) has an extensive history of monitoring snow and ice coverage.Accurate monitoring of global snow/ice cover is a key component in the study of climate and global change as well as daily weather forecasting.

The Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs (POES/GOES) operated by NESDIS provide invaluable visible and infrared spectral data in support of these efforts. Clear-sky imagery from both the POES and the GOES sensors show snow/ice boundaries very well; however, the visible and infrared techniques may suffer from persistent cloud cover near the snowline, making observations difficult (Ramsay, 1995). The microwave products (DMSP and AMSR-E) are unobstructed by clouds and thus can be used as another observational platform in most regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery also provides all-weather, near daily capacities to discriminate sea and lake ice. With several other derived snow/ice products of varying accuracy, such as those from NCEP and the NWS NOHRSC, it is highly desirable for analysts to be able to interactively compare and contrast the products so that a more accurate composite map can be produced.

The Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS first began generating Northern Hemisphere Weekly Snow and Ice Cover analysis charts derived from the visible satellite imagery in November, 1966. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the analysis (190 km and 7 days, respectively) remained unchanged for the product’s 33-year lifespan.

As a result of increasing customer needs and expectations, it was decided that an efficient, interactive workstation application should be constructed which would enable SAB to produce snow/ice analyses at a higher resolution and on a daily basis (~25 km / 1024 x 1024 grid and once per day) using a consolidated array of new as well as existing satellite and surface imagery products. The Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover chart has been produced since February, 1997 by SAB meteorologists on the IMS.

Another large resolution improvement began in early 2004, when improved technology allowed the SAB to begin creation of a daily ~4 km (6144×6144) grid. At this time, both the ~4 km and ~24 km products are available from NSIDC with a slight delay. Near real-time gridded data is available in ASCII format by request.

In March 2008, the product was migrated from SAB to the National Ice Center (NIC) of NESDIS. The production system and methodology was preserved during the migration. Improved access to DMSP, SAR, and modeled data sources is expected as a short-term from the migration, with longer term plans of twice daily production, GRIB2 output format, a Southern Hemisphere analysis, and an expanded suite of integrated snow and ice variable on horizon. Source:  Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS)

Arctic Ice Above Average July 16, 2022

 

The image above shows melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the first half of July 2022.  As usual, on the extreme left of the image, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk seas are entirely open water.  Meanwhile on the lower far right, Hudson Bay ice retreats from 600k km2 to 300k km2 from north to south.  Note center right Hudson Strait opens up between Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.  At the top center Barents Sea is mostly open water, while Kara Sea upper left lost 200k km2 down to 29% of its last max.  Center left Laptev has melted somewhat, but still retains 63% of its maximum ice extent. The central mass of Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth, and as well as Beaufort Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) were slow to melt in July, retaining 91% of maximum ice in each basin.

The graph below shows the ice extent retreating mid June to mid July compared to some other years and the 16 year average (2006 to 2021 inclusive).

The chart black line shows that on average in these 30 days Arctic ice extent goes down 2.5 Wadhams (M km2).  2022 started nearly average, melted faster than average late June, then went surplus in July continuing to yesterday July 16.  SII was higher than MASIE some days, lower other days, but ended up the same. 2020 started 500k km2 down, and on day 197 was 800k km2 deficit to average. 

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Bering and Okhotsk are open water at this point and are dropped from this and future monthly updates. 

Region 2022197 Day 197 Average 2022-Ave. 2020197 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 8406464 8243242  163222  7467638 938826 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 971940 857420  114520  933571 38369 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 669852 624347  45504  613199 56653 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 928329 908426  19903  651811 276519 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 566487 546079  20408  133721 432765 
 (5) Kara_Sea 271923 335569  -63647  127208 144715 
 (6) Barents_Sea 15777 56412  -40635  40301 -24524 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 333097 398154  -65057  405198 -72102 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 383118 286652  96466  242131 140987 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 784359 706015  78344  737235 47124 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 293184 352063  -58880  495103 -201920 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3186972 3167895  19076  3087401 99571 

The main deficits to average are in  Kara, Barents, Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay,  more than offset by surpluses in  Beaufort, Chukchi, Baffin Bay and CAA.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Arctic Warming Alarm from New Mexico Models

Breaking News from Los Alamos National Laboratory at Science Daily Arctic temperatures are increasing four times faster than global warming. As you can see, the alarm is not based on field observations in the Arctic Circle, but comes from computers in Los Alamos, New Mexico. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Summary:
A new analysis of observed temperatures shows the Arctic is heating up more than four times faster than the rate of global warming. The trend has stepped upward steeply twice in the last 50 years, a finding missed by all but four of 39 climate models.

From 39 climate-change models in the widely used CMIP6 collection of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the international research team found four that reproduced the first step reasonably well around 1986, but none that reproduced the second step in 1999. CMIP is an international collaborative of climate models using a shared set of parameters. CMIP6 has been used to create recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report.

Arctic Warming Unalarming

Now let’s compare that fearful news with records from surface weather stations around the Arctic Circle.

Locations of arctic stations examined in this study

Locations of arctic stations examined in this study

An recent extensive analysis of Northern surface temperature records gives no support for Arctic “amplification” fears.

The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. Heretofore, it has been supposed that any global warming would be amplified in the Arctic. This may still be true if urban heat island effects are responsible for part of the observed temperature increase at European stations. However, European and Arctic temperatures have remained closely synchronized for over 200 years during the rapid growth of urban centres.

And the warming pattern in Europe and the Arctic is familiar and unalarming.

Arctic temperatures have increased during the period 1820– 2014. The warming has been larger in January than in July. Siberia, Alaska and Western Canada appear to have warmed slightly more than Eastern Canada, Greenland, Iceland and Northern Europe. The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000. The July temperature trend is even slightly negative for the period 1820–1990. The time series exhibit multidecadal temperature fluctuations which have also been found by other temperature reconstructions.

The paper is:

Arctic temperature trends from the early nineteenth century to the present W. A. van Wijngaarden, Theoretical & Applied Climatology (2015) here

Temperatures were examined at 118 stations located in the Arctic and compared to observations at 50 European stations whose records averaged 200 years and in a few cases extend to the early 1700s.

Fig. 3 Temperature change for a January, b July and c annual relative to the temperature during 1961 to 1990 for Arctic stations. The red curve is the moving 5-year average while the blue curve is the number of stations

Fig. 3 Temperature change for a January, b July and c annual relative to the temperature during 1961 to 1990 for Arctic stations. The red curve is the moving 5-year average while the blue curve is the number of stations

Summary

The data and results for all stations are provided in detail, and the findings are inescapable.

The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. . . The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. . .During the 1900s, all four (Arctic) regions experienced increasing temperatures until about 1940. Temperatures then decreased by about 1 °C over the next 50 years until rising in the 1990s.

For the period 1820–2014, the trends for the January, July and annual temperatures are 1.0, 0.0 and 0.7 °C per century, respectively. . . Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000.

Once again conclusions based on observations are ignored while projections from models are broadcast and circulated like gossip. The only amplification going on is the promotion of global warming alarms.

megaphone

Postscript: I did a study last of 25 World Class surface temperature records (all European) and found the same patterns (here).

Footnote:  I’ve had two reports from readers that my posts do not appear properly in their devices, in one case the email message and the other in browsers Firefox and Chrome.  I am not seeing this in my email notices or in my Chromium-based browser.  Please let me know it you are experiencing such difficulties or not.

2022 Arctic Ice Usual June Swoon

The image above shows melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the last half of June 2022.  As usual the process of declining ice extent follows a LIFO pattern:  Last In First Out.  That is, the marginal seas are the last to freeze and the first to melt.  Thus on the extreme left of the image, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk seas are entirely open water.  Meanwhile on the lower right, Hudson Bay ice retreats 400k km2 from north to south.  Note center right Hudson Strait opens up between Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.  At the top center Barents Sea ice retreated down to 40k km2 or 5% of its last maximum. Kara Sea upper left lost 340k km2 down to 45% of its last max.  Center left Laptev has melted somewhat, but still retains 76% of its maximum ice extent. The central mass of Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth, and as well as Beaufort Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) were slow to melt in June, retaining 97% of maximum ice in each basin.

The graph below shows the ice extent retreating during June compared to some other years and the 16 year average (2006 to 2021 inclusive).

The chart black line shows that on average in June Arctic ice extent goes down 1.8M km2.  2020, as well as 2007 started June above average, but ended the month matching average. SII was higher than MASIE some days, but ended up the same.  Since Hudson Bay melts the most at this time, the dark green line shows the Arctic total excluding Hudson Bay (HB).  The light green is 2022 minus HB, showing that most of the surplus to average ice was in Hudson Bay starting June, and then retreated to average in the second half of June.  Again note that Hudson Bay is outside the Arctic circle and will be open water soon.

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Bering and Okhotsk are open water at this point and are dropped from this and future monthly updates. 

Region 2022181 Day 181 Average 2022-Ave. 2020181 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 9732940 9751345  -18405  9164791 568149 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1033264 921004  112260  983906 49358 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 717500 723606  -6105  734107 -16607 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1060947 1006910  54037  879242 181705 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 690688 700482  -9794  522834 167855 
 (5) Kara_Sea 416591 550493  -133903  292013 124578 
 (6) Barents_Sea 48841 121301  -72460  145978 -97137 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 480208 501184  -20976  422780 57427 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 647844 505146  142698  479013 168831 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 828864 777527  51337  772844 56020 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 618405 712913  -94508  687820 -69416 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3181467 3205732  -24265  3235700 -54234 

The main deficits to average are in  Kara, Barents and Hudson Bay,  offset by surpluses in  Beaufort, East Siberian, Baffin Bay and CAA.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.