A previous post reported that Arctic Sea Ice has persisted this year despite a wavy Polar Vortex this spring, bringing cold down to mid-latitudes, and warming air into Arctic regions.  Now in June, after tracking in deficit the sea ice extent is matching the 14-year average on day 159.  Note that SII (Sea Ice Index) since mid-May has been showing 200 to 400k km2 more ice than MASIE, and currently the two datasets have converged on a value of ~11.25 M km2.

Note that on the 14-year average, during this period ~1.7M km2 of ice extent is lost, which 2021 is matching, as did 2007.  Both 2020 and 2019 were much lower than average at this date, by ~600k and ~700k respectively.  

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Floodings

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

The main deficits are in Laptev and East Siberian Seas, Baffin and Hudson Bays, offset by surpluses in Beaufort, Chukchi and Greenland Seas.

A previous post reported that Arctic Sea Ice has persisted this year despite a wavy Polar Vortex this spring, bringing cold down to mid-latitudes, and warming air into Arctic regions.  Now in May, the sea ice extent matched the 14-year average on day 144, tracking alongside until month end.  Surprisingly  SII (Sea Ice Index) is showing ~400k km2 more ice, which is also ~70k km2 higher than the 14-year average for SII on day 151 (not shown in chart).

Note that on the 14-year average, May loses ~2M km2 of ice extent, which 2021 matched, as did 2007.  Both 2020 and 2019 finished lower than average, by 300k and 400k respectively.  In contrast SII shows a May loss of only 1.3M km2.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Floodings

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

The overall deficit to average happened yesterday, being an extent 1% lower, and two days earlier than average.  The largest deficits to average are in Baffin Bay and Laptev Sea, along with Bering and Okhotsk.  These are partly offset by surpluses elsewhere, mostly in Beaufort, Chukchi, and Greenland Seas.

A previous post reported that Arctic Sea Ice has persisted this year despite a wavy Polar Vortex this spring, bringing cold down to mid-latitudes, and warming air into Arctic regions.  Now in May, the sea ice extent matches the 14-year average.  In the chart above, MASIE has caught up to its average, while SII (Sea Ice Index) is showing 300k km2 more ice.  This is also 200k km2 higher than the 14-year average for SII on day 144 (not shown in chart).

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Floodings

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

The largest deficit to average is in Baffin Bay, with Laptev and Hudson Bay also starting to melt.  These are offset by surpluses elsewhere, mostly in Chukchi, Barents, and Greenland Sea.

Typically in climate observations, averages are referenced without paying attention to the high degree of component variability from year to year, and over longer time periods.  Mid May is when the Spring melt is well underway, but with the Arctic core still frozen solid.  Yet the animation above shows on day 135 over the last 15 years, there are considerable differences as to how much ice is in which regions. 

On the bottom left is Bering Sea which had ice extents on this day ranging from a high of 682k km2 (2012) to a low of 38k km2 (2018).  The day 135 average for Bering is 293k km2, but with a standard deviation of 192k (65%).  Okhotsk center left is the next most variable, from 290k (2012) to 99k (2019), averaging 188k with std. deviation of 63K (33%).  Barents Sea center top has a large variability from 568k km2 (2009) to 223k (2012), averaging 422k km2 +/- 111 k km2.  Other Arctic regions vary little on this day from year to year.  For example, Hudson Bay is close to 1.2M km2 every year on day 135.

The effect on NH total ice extents is presented in the graph below for the period mid April to mid May, comparing the 14-year average with 2021 MASIE and SII, and some other years of interest.

Note on average this period shows an ice loss of 1.5M km2.  MASIE 2021 is about 200k km2 below average, 1.6% down, or having the same total extent 3 days ahead of average.  Interestingly, SII shows about 200k higher, matching the MASIE average for day 135.

The table below shows the distribution of sea ice across the Arctic regions.

Overall NH extent March 31 was below average by 200k km2,  equivalent to the deficit in Baffin Bay.  Elsewhere smaller deficits were offset with surpluses. The onset of spring melt is as usual in most regions.

Previous posts noted how Arctic ice extents waxed and waned in response to the wavy Polar Vortex this year.  The animation above showed how the ice fluctuated over the last two weeks.  Okhhotsk upper left steadily lost ~225k km2, while Bering Sea lower left lost ~130k km2 in the first week then waffled around the same extent.  Barents at the top lost ~170k km2 early, then in the last 10 days gained back most of it. Greenland Sea middle right waffled down and up with little change up to yesterday.  Baffin Bay lower right produced the largest deficit on the Atlantic side ~180k km2.

The effect on NH total ice extents is presented in the graph below.The graph above shows ice extent through April comparing 2021 MASIE reports with the 14-year average, other recent years and with SII.  The average April drops about 1.1M km2 of ice extent.  This year MASIE showed two sharp drops and two recoveries, the last one coming close to average day 118.  SII showed a less than average April loss of ~870k km2.  In the end MASIE 2021 matched 2020, and higher then 2007.

The table below shows the distribution of sea ice across the Arctic regions.

Overall NH extent March 31 was below average by 240k km2, or 2%.  With Bering deficit offset by Okhotsk surplus, the entire difference from average matches the Baffin Bay deficit. The onset of spring melt is as usual in most regions.

Previous posts showed 2021 Arctic Ice fell short of breaking the 15M km2 ceiling mid March due to a February Polar Vortex disruption.  As we shall see below, another smaller PV disruption is now occurring accelerating the normal spring melting season.  The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007, typically around the SII average of 14.7 M km2.  Of course there are regional differences as described later on.

Dr. Judah Cohen at AER provides an image of how this latest PV disruption appears:

The High pressure areas were forecast to warm over the Pacific Arctic basins, and extending over to the European side, while the cold Low area is presently extending down into North America, bringing some snow on April 1 in Montreal (no joke).  The effect on Arctic Ice is shown in the animation below:

Over the last 10 days, Okhotsk upper left lost 180k km2 while Bering lower left lost half that with a slight recovery yesterday.  Barents Sea upper right lost 145k km2 over the same period.  The effect on NH total ice extents is presented in the graph below.

The graph above shows ice extent through March comparing 2021 MASIE reports with the 14-year average, other recent years and with SII.  After drawing close to average by day 80, 2021 ice extents dropped sharply and at March end matched both 2020 and 2007.  Despite losses from this PV event, the 2020 March monthly average ended up comparable to other years, as seen in the chart at the top.  In fact, the SII dataset of monthly gains and losses shows March 2021 gained slightly over end of February, compared to a 200k km2 loss for the average March.

The table below shows the distribution of sea ice across the Arctic regions.

Overall NH extent March 31 was below average by 425k km2, or 3%.  The bulk of the deficit is seen in Bering and Baffin, along with Barents Sea.  Okhotsk remains above average in spite of recent losses.  The onset of spring melt is as usual in most regions.

As anticipated in a previous post, Arctic ice extent appears to have peaked under the 15M km2 threshold.  An earlier discussion noted that the wavy Polar Vortex that froze Texas with cold Arctic air in February, allowed warmer southern air into Arctic regions, reducing ice extent.  The ice recovered afterward ( see March 1, 2021 Arctic Ice Recovers from PV Hit ), but 2021 was no longer going to reach 15M km2.  As shown by the graph below, ice extents this year did persist and draw close to the 14 year average, before beginning the melt season this week.

Starting March MASIE 2021 shows Arctic extents were about 400k km2 below average, but for the first 20 days added 200k while the average lost about 100k, reducing the difference to 85k km2 on day 80.  Now in the last 3 days the melt season has erased the gains in 2021 and restored the deficit to nearly 300k km2, 2% of the 14-year average.  SII reported mostly lower extents than MASIE, but presently the two are similar.  The table shows the distribution of ice over the Arctic regions.

Interestingly, both Okhotsk and Barents Seas peaked well above average, and are still in surplus after starting to retreat.  The main deficits are in Bering and Baffin Bay.  The central Arctic, Siberian and Canadian regions remain solidly frozen.

Background previous post Arctic Ice Moment of Truth 2021

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average peak in the last 14 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M km2 before descending, though the average can still be above 15M at late as day 73.  Nine of the last 14 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2016 and 2020 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short. The actual annual peak ice extent day varied between day 59 (2016) to day 82 (2012).

The animation shows in two weeks how this year’s ice extents contracted and then regrew greater than before, coincidental with the wavy Polar Vortex (PV) first admitting warmer southern air and then keeping the cold air in.

As reported previously, most of the action was firstly in the Pacific, especially Sea of Okhotsk upper left, ice shrinking one week by 200k km2 and rapidly growing back 210k km2 ice extent the next.  Okhotsk ice is now 1.1M km2, 96% of 2020 max.  On the Atlantic side, Barents sea upper right lost 100k km2 retreating from Svalbard, then gained 120k km2 back.  Greenland Sea ice middle right lost 100k km2, and then gained 150k km2.  Barents now has 3% more ice than 2020 max, while Greenland sea ice is 85% of last year’s max.

Drift ice in Okhotsk Sea at sunrise.

For more on the Pacific basins see post Meet Bering and Okhotsk Seas

As anticipated in the previous post reprinted below, Arctic ice extent appears to have peaked under the 15M km2 threshold.  An earlier discussion at 2020 year end noted that March actually ends up with less ice extent than end of February, so the rest of the month is not likely to add any more ice.  Here is the graph for March including yesterday.

The graph shows this year did recover from a 400k km2 deficit to the 14-year average, to about 100k by day 70, and has now fallen back to almost 300k km2 down (2%).  It is also apparent that extent will likely decline in the next two weeks, by about 300k km2 on average, already matched by 2021.  Climatology uses SII March monthly average as the annual maximum, so that will come out lower as well.

Interestingly, both Okhotsk and Barents Seas peaked well above 2020, and are now starting to retreat, along with other marginal basins.  The central Arctic, Siberian and Canadian regions remain solidly frozen.

Background previous post Arctic Ice Moment of Truth 2021

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average peak in the last 14 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M km2 before descending, though the average can still be above 15M at late as day 73.  Nine of the last 14 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2016 and 2020 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short. The actual annual peak ice extent day varied between day 59 (2016) to day 82 (2012).

The animation shows in two weeks how this year’s ice extents contracted and then regrew greater than before, coincidental with the wavy Polar Vortex (PV) first admitting warmer southern air and then keeping the cold air in.

As reported previously, most of the action was firstly in the Pacific, especially Sea of Okhotsk upper left, ice shrinking one week by 200k km2 and rapidly growing back 210k km2 ice extent the next.  Okhotsk ice is now 1.1M km2, 96% of 2020 max.  On the Atlantic side, Barents sea upper right lost 100k km2 retreating from Svalbard, then gained 120k km2 back.  Greenland Sea ice middle right lost 100k km2, and then gained 150k km2.  Barents now has 3% more ice than 2020 max, while Greenland sea ice is 85% of last year’s max.

All of this means that 2021 will be hard pressed to pass the 15M km2 threshold.  The graph below shows the situation evolving over the last two weeks anticipating the annual maximum to appear within the fortnight.

Note that Sea Ice Index (SII) went offline day 51 so the MASIE record alone shows the loss of ice extent ending day 56 and climbing up to the present.  The NH ice extent gap is at 244k km2, or 1.6%.  Since the 14 year average has already peaked, further growth will narrow the margin.  (Note that ice extent is affected also by winds piling up drift ice, as well as melting from intrusions of warmer air or water.)

Last year surpassed the average while other recent years were lower.  We shall see what this year does with only 10 days or so to make a difference.

The main deficit to average is in Baffin Bay, partly offset by a surplus in Barents.  Smaller pluses and minuses are found in other regions.

Typically, Arctic ice extent loses 67 to 70% of the March maximum by mid September, before recovering the ice in building toward the next March.

What will the ice do this year?  Where will 2020 rank in the annual Arctic Ice High Jump competition?

Drift ice in Okhotsk Sea at sunrise.

For more on the Pacific basins see post Meet Bering and Okhotsk Seas

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average peak in the last 14 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M km2 before descending, though the average can still be above 15M at late as day 73.  Nine of the last 14 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2016 and 2020 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short. The actual annual peak ice extent day varied between day 59 (2016) to day 82 (2012).

The animation shows in two weeks how this year’s ice extents contracted and then regrew greater than before, coincidental with the wavy Polar Vortex (PV) first admitting warmer southern air and then keeping the cold air in.

As reported previously, most of the action was firstly in the Pacific, especially Sea of Okhotsk upper left, ice shrinking one week by 200k km2 and rapidly growing back 210k km2 ice extent the next.  Okhotsk ice is now 1.1M km2, 96% of 2020 max.  On the Atlantic side, Barents sea upper right lost 100k km2 retreating from Svalbard, then gained 120k km2 back.  Greenland Sea ice middle right lost 100k km2, and then gained 150k km2.  Barents now has 3% more ice than 2020 max, while Greenland sea ice is 85% of last year’s max.

All of this means that 2021 will be hard pressed to pass the 15M km2 threshold.  The graph below shows the situation evolving over the last two weeks anticipating the annual maximum to appear within the fortnight.

Note that Sea Ice Index (SII) went offline day 51 so the MASIE record alone shows the loss of ice extent ending day 56 and climbing up to the present.  The NH ice extent gap is at 244k km2, or 1.6%.  Since the 14 year average has already peaked, further growth will narrow the margin.  (Note that ice extent is affected also by winds piling up drift ice, as well as melting from intrusions of warmer air or water.)

Last year surpassed the average while other recent years were lower.  We shall see what this year does with only 10 days or so to make a difference.

The main deficit to average is in Baffin Bay, partly offset by a surplus in Barents.  Smaller pluses and minuses are found in other regions.

Typically, Arctic ice extent loses 67 to 70% of the March maximum by mid September, before recovering the ice in building toward the next March.

What will the ice do this year?  Where will 2020 rank in the annual Arctic Ice High Jump competition?

Drift ice in Okhotsk Sea at sunrise.

For more on the Pacific basins see post Meet Bering and Okhotsk Seas