The image above shows melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the last half of June 2022. As usual the process of declining ice extent follows a LIFO pattern: Last In First Out. That is, the marginal seas are the last to freeze and the first to melt. Thus on the extreme left of the image, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk seas are entirely open water. Meanwhile on the lower right, Hudson Bay ice retreats 400k km2 from north to south. Note center right Hudson Strait opens up between Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay. At the top center Barents Sea ice retreated down to 40k km2 or 5% of its last maximum. Kara Sea upper left lost 340k km2 down to 45% of its last max. Center left Laptev has melted somewhat, but still retains 76% of its maximum ice extent. The central mass of Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth, and as well as Beaufort Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) were slow to melt in June, retaining 97% of maximum ice in each basin.
The graph below shows the ice extent retreating during June compared to some other years and the 16 year average (2006 to 2021 inclusive).
The chart black line shows that on average in June Arctic ice extent goes down 1.8M km2. 2020, as well as 2007 started June above average, but ended the month matching average. SII was higher than MASIE some days, but ended up the same. Since Hudson Bay melts the most at this time, the dark green line shows the Arctic total excluding Hudson Bay (HB). The light green is 2022 minus HB, showing that most of the surplus to average ice was in Hudson Bay starting June, and then retreated to average in the second half of June. Again note that Hudson Bay is outside the Arctic circle and will be open water soon.
The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average. Bering and Okhotsk are open water at this point and are dropped from this and future monthly updates.
Region
2022181
Day 181 Average
2022-Ave.
2020181
2022-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
9732940
9751345
-18405
9164791
568149
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1033264
921004
112260
983906
49358
(2) Chukchi_Sea
717500
723606
-6105
734107
-16607
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1060947
1006910
54037
879242
181705
(4) Laptev_Sea
690688
700482
-9794
522834
167855
(5) Kara_Sea
416591
550493
-133903
292013
124578
(6) Barents_Sea
48841
121301
-72460
145978
-97137
(7) Greenland_Sea
480208
501184
-20976
422780
57427
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
647844
505146
142698
479013
168831
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
828864
777527
51337
772844
56020
(10) Hudson_Bay
618405
712913
-94508
687820
-69416
(11) Central_Arctic
3181467
3205732
-24265
3235700
-54234
The main deficits to average are in Kara, Barents and Hudson Bay, offset by surpluses in Beaufort, East Siberian, Baffin Bay and CAA.
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.
The Arctic ice melting season was delayed this year as shown by the end of May (day 151) surplus of 600k km2 over the 16-yr average. Since then both MASIE and SII show a steep decline in Arctic ice extents, now matching the average for June 15 (day 166). The reports show that Barents alone lost 320k km2, Laptev down 200k km2, Baffin Bay lost 165k km2, Chukchi, Kara, Greenland seas all lost around 100k km2 each.
For the month of June Hudson Bay will take the stage. Above average early in June. Hudson Bay lost 100k km2 the last six days. Being a shallow basin, it will likely lose much of its 1M km2 in a few weeks.
Why is this important? All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels. The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming
The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 151 (end of May) from 2006 to yesterday 2022. It is evident that typically there are some regional seas starting to melt by this date, whereas 2022 remains frozen solid. More detailed analysis is below, but note the 2022 surplus is 600k km2, or 5% above the 16 year average for day 151. That extra ice extent amounts to 0.6 Wadhams, or 6826 Manhattan Islands, whichever index you prefer. The graph below shows May 2022 daily ice extents compared to the 16-year average and some other years of note.
The black line shows during May on average Arctic ice extents decline ~1.8M km2 down to 11.7M km2. The 2022 cyan MASIE line only lost 1.3M km2, starting the month 141k km2 above average and on day 151 showed a surplus of 598k km2. The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) starter lower than MASIE, then ran over in later weeks, ending May nearly the same. The dark green line is average Arctic ice, excluding Bering and Okhotsk (B&O), which started melting early in 2022. The light green line is 2022 without B&O. As of day 151, the 2022 B&O extent matches the average B&O, so the ~600k km2 surplus is entirely in the core Arctic ocean.
Why is this important? All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels. The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming
The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 151 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.
Region
2022151
Day 151 Average
2022-Ave.
2021151
2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
12281289
11682840
598449
11605537
675752
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1060171
1003588
56582
1034779
25392
(2) Chukchi_Sea
894077
865036
29040
900868
-6792
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1085478
1064424
21054
1051959
33520
(4) Laptev_Sea
877340
824419
52921
738294
139047
(5) Kara_Sea
870898
829705
41193
824068
46831
(6) Barents_Sea
421071
305918
115153
325745
95326
(7) Greenland_Sea
665639
562229
103411
615174
50465
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
976116
897470
78647
812548
163568
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854703
810848
43855
811040
43663
(10) Hudson_Bay
1122388
1088994
33395
1084892
37496
(11) Central_Arctic
3245183
3216568
28615
3232324
12859
(12) Bering_Sea
116552
115657
895
89124
27428
(13) Baltic_Sea
915
199
717
0
915
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
89260
96309
-7049
83572
5688
The overall surplus to average is 598k km2, (5%). The surplus is found in every region, except for a slight deficit in Okhotsk
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.
An early-spring sunset over the icy Chukchi Sea near Barrow (Utqiaġvik), Alaska, documented during the OASIS field project (Ocean_Atmosphere_Sea Ice_Snowpack) on March 22, 2009. Image credit: UCAR, photo by Carlye Calvin.
Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, staying above that level the first week of March, then followed by typical melting in March and April. Now in May, Arctic sea ice is not retreating as fast as usual. The chart below shows by day 134 (May 14), the overall ice extent in cyan was 353k km2 above the 16 year average in black.
Note the much higher ice extents in 2022 compared to 2021 (+543k) or 2007 (+619k). The green lines show that the above normal ice this year is despite low extents in Bering and Okhotsk (B&O) seas. The averages in dark green (excluding B&O) are below 2022 in light green (excluding B&O) by 477k km2. IOW everywhere in the Arctic except Okhotsk ice extents are almost 1/2 Wadham above average, nearly matching day 134 Arctic including Bering and Okhotsk. Remember also that B&O are outside the Arctic circle, have no Polar bears, and are among the first to melt out every spring.
The table below shows ice extents in the seas comprising the Arctic, comparing 2022 day 134 with the same day average over the last 16 years and with 2007.
Region
2022134
Day 134 Average
2022-Ave.
2007134
2022-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
13084542
12731703
352839
12465425
619117
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1042530
1048465
-5934
1057649
-15119
(2) Chukchi_Sea
958909
927455
31454
952925
5984
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1081479
5659
1080156
6981
(4) Laptev_Sea
897845
881321
16524
850822
47022
(5) Kara_Sea
894992
886185
8807
876053
18939
(6) Barents_Sea
612751
417074
195677
351553
261198
(7) Greenland_Sea
674248
623405
50843
560102
114147
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1206195
1080371
125824
1029612
176583
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
840361
14324
830604
24081
(10) Hudson_Bay
1213151
1190185
22966
1161738
51413
(11) Central_Arctic
3248013
3224787
23226
3234305
13708
(12) Bering_Sea
257260
319952
-62692
309846
-52586
(13) Baltic_Sea
9044
8179
865
6368
2675
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
125465
200107
-74641
159942
-34476
The table shows that 2022 ice extent is above average by 353k km2, or 2.8%, and exceeding 2007 by 619k km2 at this date. The two deficits to average are Bering and Okhotsk, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, especially in Barents and Baffin Bay.
Polar Bear on Ice in Baffin Bay Between Baffin Island and Greenland
My previous Arctic ice report was limited by technical difficulties, now resolved as shown by the animation above. So this update comes a week into May, with the animation covering the last three weeks from mid April. The dramatic melting in the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk (left) sets them apart from the rest of Arctic sea ice. As noted before, those two basins are outside the Arctic circle, have no polar bears and are the first places to become open water in the Spring. Elsewhere sea ice persisted, actually growing in Barents and Greenland seas.
[The staff at National Ice Center were extremely helpful, as usual. Their work is distinctive, valuable and deserving of your appreciation. See Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset]
The melting effect on NH total ice extents during this period is presented in the graph below.
The graph above shows ice extent mid-April through May 7 comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII. 2022 ice extents have tracked the average, going surplus for the last 10 days. .Both 2021 and 2007 are well below average, on day 127 lower than 2022 by 318k km2 and 443k km2 respectively. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Bering and Okhotsk ice are excluded. On this basis 2022 Arctic ice was nearly 400k km2 in surplus on May 7, and prior to yesterday, the horizontal line shows little loss of ice extent elsewhere than in the Pacific.
Region
2022127
Day 127 Average
2022-Ave.
2007127
2022-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
13272388
13096082
176306
12954671
317717
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1053640
1059642
-6001
1056022
-2382
(2) Chukchi_Sea
959821
949409
10412
955497
4324
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1085912
1225
1081248
5889
(4) Laptev_Sea
897845
892770
5075
870216
27628
(5) Kara_Sea
928813
897443
31370
883059
45754
(6) Barents_Sea
642899
476820
166079
430155
212745
(7) Greenland_Sea
732835
616488
116347
639861
92974
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1185073
1140285
44787
1076913
108159
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
845807
8879
845091
9594
(10) Hudson_Bay
1216867
1212411
4456
1192270
24597
(11) Central_Arctic
3248013
3223344
24669
3241053
6960
(12) Bering_Sea
275935
401584
-125649
398914
-122980
(13) Baltic_Sea
14465
13264
1201
10416
4050
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
172221
278245
-106023
269684
-97463
The only deficits to average are in Bering and Okhotsk, more than offset by surpluses everywhere else, especially in Barents and Greenland seas, along with Kara and Baffin Bay. At this point, overall NH sea ice is 88% of last March maximum (15.1M kim2). All regions are well above 90% of their maxes, except for Barents (81%), Baffin Bay (66%), Bering (33%) and Okhotsk (20%).
April 1st Footnote:
It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:
In addition, cold Spring temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:
Arctic ice extent changes for the last two weeks are shown in the MASIE animation above. Note that the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk (upper left) melted dramatically. Meanwhile on the Atlantic side ice persisted, actually growing in Barents and Greenland seas.
The strangeness concerns weirdness in Google Earth Pro treatment of kmz files from MASIE. Previous I have used these to produce animations like the one below for the month of March.
Today when attempting to do the same for April, this is what was shown.
That is a screen capture since Google Earth could not render an image. I hope it is just a temporary technical difficulty. But I can’t help but imagine this depicting some kind of military map with a two-pronged attack by red forces with a single resisting force in red and blue. Is it more virtuous canceling of all things Russian at the expense of scientific inquiry? (The mask with colors was only imposed on the Northern Hemisphere)
The melting effect on NH total ice extents during April is presented in the graph below.
The graph above shows ice extent through April comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII. On average ice extents lost 1.1M km2 during April. 2022 ice extents started slightly lower, then tracked average, ending slightly above average. Both 2021 and 2007 ended below average, by 200k km2 and 400k km2 respectively. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Bering and Okhotsk ice are excluded. On this basis 2022 Arctic was nearly 400k km2 in surplus at end of April.
Region
2022120
Day 120 Average
2022-Ave.
2007120
2022-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
13623874
13507670
116204
13108068
515806
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1070776
1067739
3036
1059189
11587
(2) Chukchi_Sea
963424
955654
7770
949246
14178
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1085485
1652
1080176
6961
(4) Laptev_Sea
897845
889961
7884
875661
22184
(5) Kara_Sea
932842
911757
21084
864664
68178
(6) Barents_Sea
654813
547685
107129
396544
258270
(7) Greenland_Sea
777073
640123
136950
644438
132635
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1243689
1205315
38374
1147115
96574
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
848564
6121
838032
16653
(10) Hudson_Bay
1240262
1238267
1995
1222074
18188
(11) Central_Arctic
3247307
3229654
17652
3241034
6272
(12) Bering_Sea
334929
482018
-147089
475489
-140560
(13) Baltic_Sea
22696
20622
2074
14684
8012
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
294259
381697
-87438
295743
-1484
The only deficits to average are in Bering and Okhotsk, more than offset by surpluses everywhere else, especially in Barents and Greenland seas. 2007 extents were lower by 516k km2 (half a Wadham)
April 1st Footnote:
It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:
In addition, cold Spring temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:
Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, staying above that level the first week of March, then followed by typical melting in March. As the chart below shows, mid March the overall ice extent was ~400k km2 below the 16 year average, before returning to the mean day 89 and tracking the average since then.
Note the much higher ice extents in 2022 compared to 2021 or 2007. The green lines show that the above normal ice this year is despite low extents in Sea of Okhotsk. The averages in dark green (excluding Okhotsk) are below 2022 in light green (excluding Okhotsk) by nearly 200k km2. IOW everywhere in the Arctic except Okhotsk ice extents are well above average. Remember also that Okhotsk basin is outside the Arctic circle, has no Polar bears, and is among the first to melt out every spring.
The table below shows ice extents in the seas comprising the Arctic, comparing 2022 day 102 with the same day average over the last 16 years and with 2021.
Region
2022102
Day 102 Average
2022-Ave.
2021102
2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
14276734
14220846
55888
13625046
651688
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1070776
1069263
1513
1070689
87
(2) Chukchi_Sea
966006
963080
2926
966006
0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1085847
1290
1087137
0
(4) Laptev_Sea
897845
895064
2781
897827
18
(5) Kara_Sea
935023
922556
12467
900979
34045
(6) Barents_Sea
708728
615602
93126
349338
359390
(7) Greenland_Sea
646204
655532
-9329
671290
-25086
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1281551
1286670
-5119
1132374
149177
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
852712
1973
854597
88
(10) Hudson_Bay
1260903
1246035
14868
1249891
11012
(11) Central_Arctic
3238576
3230459
8117
3167541
71035
(12) Bering_Sea
765331
658850
106481
545689
219642
(13) Baltic_Sea
51751
47121
4630
21897
29854
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
506073
685897
-179824
704441
-198368
The table shows that 2022 ice extent is slightly above average and exceeding 2021 by 652k km2 at this date. Surpluses are sizeable in Bering and Barents, more than offsetting the major Okhotsk deficit. All other regions are showing as typically frozen basins.
Polar Bear on Ice in Baffin Bay Between Baffin Island and Greenland
Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, followed by a typical small melt in March. Climatology refers to the March monthly average ice extent as indicative of the annual maximum Arctic ice extent. The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007, typically around the SII average of 14.7 M km2. Of course there are regional differences as described later on.
The animation shows ice extent fluctuations during March 2022. Bering Sea (lower left) gained ice over the month, while ice in Okhotsk (higher left) retreated. At the top Kara and Barents seas lost and then gained ice. Baffin Bay lower right lost ice during March. The main changes were Baffin losing ~360k km2 of extent and Okhotsk losing ~260k km2.
The effect on NH total ice extents is presented in the graph below.
The graph above shows ice extent through March comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII. Hovering around 15M km2 the first week, 2022 ice extents dropped sharply mid month, then stabilized and at March end matched the average. Both 2020 and 2021 ended nearly 400k km2 below average. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Okhotsk ice is excluded. On this basis 2022 Arctic was nearly 400k km2 in surplus, then declined mid month before ending nearly 200k km2 in surplus to average, except for the ice shortage in Okhotsk.
Region
2022090
Day 90 Average
2022-Ave.
2021090
2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
14563095
14616765
-53670
14266634
296461
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1070776
1070116
660
1070689
87
(2) Chukchi_Sea
966006
963906
2100
966006
0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1086102
1035
1087137
0
(4) Laptev_Sea
897845
896958
887
897827
18
(5) Kara_Sea
935023
918083
16941
935023
0
(6) Barents_Sea
748326
645014
103311
602392
145934
(7) Greenland_Sea
616239
652388
-36148
620574
-4334
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1441014
1400528
40486
1243739
197275
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
852982
1703
854597
88
(10) Hudson_Bay
1260903
1254217
6687
1260903
0
(11) Central_Arctic
3245216
3232275
12941
3192844
52373
(12) Bering_Sea
785874
720525
65348
549939
235935
(13) Baltic_Sea
52068
63446
-11377
33543
18525
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
596190
849221
-253031
942085
-345895
The table shows that the large deficit in Okhotsk is only partially offset by surpluses in Bering and Barents Seas. All other regions show typical extents at end of March
April 1st Footnote:
It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:
In addition, cold March temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:
A post last month noted that Arctic ice extent in February unusually exceeded 15M km2 (15 Wadhams). This was despite slower than usual recovery of ice in Sea of Okhotsk. That early 2022 peak ice extent has passed and will now stand as 2022 annual maximum. One wonders why the large ice deficit in that basin. The graph below shows the anomaly.
The 2022 cyan line started March above 15M km2, then declined to day 76 (March 17), ~300k km2 lower than the 16 yr. average. The dark green line shows Arctic ice extent average after Okhotsk is excluded, while the light green is 2022 Arctic extent without Okhotsk. The table below shows that Okhotsk deficit to average on day 76 is 260k km2, almost the entire Arctic deficit.
Region
2022076
Day 76 Average
2022-Ave.
2021076
2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
14641084
14935497
-294413
14769906
-128822
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1070776
1070247
529
1070689
87
(2) Chukchi_Sea
966006
965877
129
966006
0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1087107
30
1087120
17
(4) Laptev_Sea
897845
897837
8
897827
18
(5) Kara_Sea
905846
923576
-17730
935006
-29160
(6) Barents_Sea
554036
648194
-94158
849221
-295185
(7) Greenland_Sea
572046
618979
-46934
601423
-29377
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1784542
1534462
250080
1288815
495727
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
853020
1665
854597
88
(10) Hudson_Bay
1260691
1258149
2542
1260471
220
(11) Central_Arctic
3153037
3223013
-69976
3222708
-69671
(12) Bering_Sea
729277
755358
-26081
547775
181502
(13) Baltic_Sea
59785
81419
-21634
62626
-2841
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
739183
998164
-258981
1117615
-378432
Most places are close to average, with a large surplus in Baffin Bay offsetting small deficits elsewhere. The exception is Okhotsk making up most of the total deficit to average, and even a larger deficit to last year
IOW, had Okhotsk extent been average on day 60 (1.08M km2) instead of 852k km2, the surplus would have been even higher. So why was ice missing in Okhotsk this year?
Firstly, the animation above shows that Okhotsk (and also Bering) sea ice is quite variable year over year. The MASIE record for day 60 shows Okhotsk at 880k km2 in 2006, up to 1230k km2 in 2012, down to 770k km2 in 2015, up to 1080k km2 in 2018, down to 850k km2 in 2022. Notice Okhotsk 2022 is quite similar to 2015, while Bering is about average this year. What causes these fluctuations on annual, decadal and longer time scales?
The answer illustrates the complexity of natural factors interacting to produce climatic patterns we observe and measure. In Okhotsk in particular, and in the Arctic generally, changes in ice extents are a function of the 3 Ws: Water, Wind and Weather. More specifically, water changes in temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS); wind changes with changes in sea level pressures (SLP); and stormy weather varies between cyclonic and anticyclonic regimes. Below is discussion of these natural mechanisms.
The Sea of Okhotsk is what oceanographers call a marginal sea: a region of a larger ocean basin that is partly enclosed by islands and peninsulas hugging a continental coast. With the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, and Sakhalin Island partly sheltering the sea from the Pacific Ocean, and with prevailing, frigid northwesterly winds blowing out from Siberia, the sea is a winter ice factory and a year-round cloud factory.
The region is the lowest latitude (45 degrees at the southern end) where sea ice regularly forms. Ice cover varies from 50 to 90 percent each winter depending on the weather. Ice often persists for nearly six months, typically from October to March. Aside from the cold winds from the Russian interior, the prodigious flow of fresh water from the Amur River freshens the sea, making the surface less saline and more likely to freeze than other seas and bays.
Map of the Sea of Okhotsk with bottom topography. The 200- and 3000-m isobars are indicated by thin and thick solid lines, respectively. A box denotes the enlarged portion in Figure 5. White shading indicates sea-ice area (ice concentration ⩾30%) in February averaged for 2003–11; blue shading indicates open ocean area. Ice concentration from AMSR-E is used. Color shadings indicate cumulative ice production in coastal polynyas during winter (December–March) averaged from the 2002/03 to 2009/10 seasons (modified from Nihashi and others, 2012, 2017). The amount is indicated by the bar scale. Source: Cambridge Core
Basics of Weather and Ice Dynamics
Wind directions are named by which point on the compass the prevailing wind hits you in the face. Thus, a southerly wind comes from the south toward the north, typically bringing warmer air north, and displacing colder northern air.
Winds arise from differences in surface pressures. Above every square inch on the surface of the Earth is 14.7 pounds of air. That means air exerts 14.7 pounds per square inch (psi) of pressure at Earth’s surface. High in the atmosphere, air pressure decreases.
Pressure varies from day to day at the Earth’s surface – the bottom of the atmosphere. This is, in part, because the Earth is not equally heated by the Sun. Areas where the air is warmed often have lower pressure because the warm air rises. These areas are called low pressure systems. Places where the air pressure is high, are called high pressure systems.
A low pressure system has lower pressure at its center than the areas around it. Winds blow towards the low pressure, and the air rises in the atmosphere where they meet. As the air rises, the water vapor within it condenses, forming clouds and often precipitation. Because of Earth’s spin and the Coriolis effect, winds of a low pressure system swirl counterclockwise north of the equator and clockwise south of the equator. This is called cyclonic flow. On weather maps, a low pressure system is labeled with red L.
A high pressure system has higher pressure at its center than the areas around it. Winds blow away from high pressure. Swirling in the opposite direction from a low pressure system, the winds of a high pressure system rotate clockwise north of the equator and counterclockwise south of the equator. This is called anticyclonic flow. Air from higher in the atmosphere sinks down to fill the space left as air is blown outward. On a weather map, you may notice a blue H, denoting the location of a high pressure system.
High and low pressure indicated by lines of equal pressure called isobars.
When the suns shines on land the air is warmed and rises. And because the earth is rotating, an upward spiral forms. Additionally, over wetlands and the oceans there is evaporation, which also rises, H2O being lighter than N2 or O2. When the water is warmer, the rising air intensifies and resulting in a lower pressure than surrounding areas. Arctic cyclones disrupt drift ice, creating more open water, and impede freezing. Arctic anticyclones (HP cells) facilitate cooling and freezing.
The vertical direction of wind motion is typically very small (except in thunderstorm updrafts) compared to the horizontal component, but is very important for determining the day to day weather. Rising air will cool, often to saturation, and can lead to clouds and precipitation. Sinking air warms causing evaporation of clouds and thus fair weather.
The closer the isobars are drawn together the quicker the air pressure changes. This change in air pressure is called the “pressure gradient”. Pressure gradient is just the difference in pressure between high- and low-pressure areas.
Long-term sea ice observation data at the Japan Meteorological Agency observatories along the Okhotsk coast of Hokkaido were analyzed. The observations at the Abashiri Local Meteorological Observatory largely explained the variations at other sites along much of the Okhotsk coast on a time scale longer than a few days. Interannually, variations of the maximum sea ice areas in the whole and southern Sea of Okhotsk were largely reflected in the yearly accumulated sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice duration variations at the observatories.
NPI time series The bars represent five-month mean ( November – March ) NPI values. The green line represents five-year running means of five-month mean NPI values. Positive (negative) NPI values indicate that the Aleutian Low is weaker (stronger) than its normal. For comparison with the PDO index, the period of the graph is adjusted to that of the PDO index.
A comparison with several indices for the North Pacific climate variability suggested that the North Pacific Index (NPI) is a robust indicatorof the recent (after the 1980s) sea ice variations in the Sea of Okhotsk on a decadal time scale. Specifically:
♦ variations in the first sea ice appearance date at the observatories resulted from variations in the Aleutian Low with meridional wind anomalies over the Sea of Okhotsk and the air temperature around Japan in January;
♦ variations in the final disappearance date resulted from the Aleutian Low variations, and,
♦ the resulting sea ice cover variations in the Sea of Okhotsk except for the Siberian coast affected the air temperatures in April. These factors influenced the sea ice duration.
A strong linkage was found between variations in the local sea ice (along the Hokkaido coast) and large-scale fields, which will help improve our understanding of the sea ice extent and retreat variability over the Sea of Okhotsk and its linkage to the North Pacific climate variability.
Fig. 1 (a) Monthly sea ice extent (contours of grid SIC = 0.3) averaged over 1977–2019. (b) Locations of JMA observatories and distribution of dailybasis correlation coefficients between the Abashiri and grid SICs. (N = 700–800 approximately).
Fig. 2 (a) Yearly maximum sea ice areas in the Sea of Okhotsk from the grid SIC data for the whole (black; left axis), northern (>50°N; green; left axis), and southern (<50°N; red; right axis) areas.
Among several climate indices, the NPI is a robust indicator of recent (after the 1980s) sea ice variations in the Sea of Okhotsk. We also examined the differences between the start and end date variations, which determine the durations. Variations in the start date at the Okhotsk coast sites resulted from the variations in the Aleutian Low strength, the air temperature around Japan in January, and partly the SST along the Soya warm current in December. Variations in the end date resulted from the Aleutian Low variations; the sea ice cover variations affected the air temperatures over the Sea of Okhotsk in April, in contrast to the sea ice cover variations in January resulting from the air temperature variations.
Sea Ice Tourism from Hokkaido, Japan
Taking a boat trip from Hokkaido Island to see Okhotsk drift ice is a big tourist attraction, as seen in the short video below. Al Gore had them worried back then, but hopefully not now.
As reported previously, Arctic ice extents are solid in most seas, but continue to fluctuate at the margins. Notably in 2022, ice extents broke the 15M km2 threshold on Feb. 28, whereas the 16-year average falls short of that even in March. It also exceeds the 2021 annual March maximum by 175k km2.
Note the much higher extent this year: 160k km2 greater than the average, and 342k km2 more than 2021. Somehow SII (Sea Ice Index) lost 200k km2 in the last 3 days.
The table below shows ice extents in the seas comprising the Arctic, comparing 2022 day 059 with the same day average over the last 16 years and with 2021.
Region
2022059
Day 59 Average
2022-Ave.
2021059
2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere
15048826
14889681
159145
14706367
342459
(1) Beaufort_Sea
1070776
1070283
493
1070689
87
(2) Chukchi_Sea
966006
965332
674
966006
0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea
1087137
1087104
34
1087120
17
(4) Laptev_Sea
897827
897836
-10
897827
0
(5) Kara_Sea
927636
926141
1495
935006
-7370
(6) Barents_Sea
742200
624652
117548
743724
-1524
(7) Greenland_Sea
623943
610430
13513
607006
16937
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence
1807904
1499912
307991
1286025
521879
(9) Canadian_Archipelago
854685
853241
1444
854597
88
(10) Hudson_Bay
1260903
1260384
519
1260471
432
(11) Central_Arctic
3247959
3211583
36376
3191259
56699
(12) Bering_Sea
649668
664978
-15310
605478
44189
(13) Baltic_Sea
62334
100387
-38053
100347
-38013
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk
824154
1074030
-249876
1080692
-256538
The table shows that 2022 ice extent exceeds 2021 by 342k km2 at this date. Surpluses are sizeable in Baffin and Barents, more than offsetting an Okhotsk deficit.
Polar Bear on Ice in Baffin Bay Between Baffin Island and Greenland
The next two weeks will be interesting. The average year in the last sixteen gained about 100k km2 from now to mid March. But the variability ranged from 2015 losing 300K while some other years gained 400k km2. And since 2016, only 2020 broke the 15M km2 ceiling. What will the ice do this year?