The animation shows  Arctic ice melting season picking up first half of April 2024.  Typically, the Pacific side goes to water first, this year Okhotsk (top left) is ahead of schedule.  Also Baffin Bay (bottom right) is opening up early. Elsewhere Arctic drift ice remains, and Barents Sea ice (top center) is well above average for mid April.

The graph below shows mid-March to mid-April daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

 

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents decline from a maximum near 14.9M km2 on day 76 down to ~14.1M Km2 by day 105. Exceptionally 2024 started with 15.1M km2 and exceeded the 18-year average throughout.  SII was somewhat lower than MASIE in most of April until ending nearly the same. Both 2021 melted faster than average, while 2006 ice started and ended much in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH February 2024: SH Saves Global Warming.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 105 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

Region	2024105	Day 105 Ave	2024-Ave.	2006105	2024-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14244041	14119733	124309	13589226	654815
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1069820	1163	1068683	2301
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	964681	1325	965591	415
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1085571	1567	1083591	3546
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	893528	4316	896528	1317
(5) Kara_Sea	935023	922957	12066	912379	22645
(6) Barents_Sea	856908	608844	248064	495112	361796
(7) Greenland_Sea	802111	653203	148908	599062	203049
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1179443	1279861	-100418	1042266	137178
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	852951	1909	851056	3804
(10) Hudson_Bay	1231701	1247129	-15428	1235951	-4250
(11) Central_Arctic	3247180	3233303	13877	3168930	78250
(12) Bering_Sea	639179	647219	-8040	667951	-28772
(13) Baltic_Sea	31107	44493	-13386	84568	-53461
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	442660	610735	-168075	507143	-64483

The overall surplus to average is 124k km2, (1%).  The only major deficits are in Baffin Bay and in Sea of Okhotsk, the latter going to open water quite early.  Those are more than offset by surpluses everywhere, especially in Barents and Greenland seas.  In fact, Barents is 120% of  its 2023 maximum.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

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The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, now overcome by 2024.

The graph below shows Monthly averages for March since 2007.  March is the maximum month in the annual cycle in contrast to September being the minimum Arctic ice extents. Note the low 2007 extents followed by several years over15M km2, then lesser extents 2015 to 2018, and increasing extents up to 2024 nearly averaging 15M for the month.

 

The graph below shows March daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

 

The black line shows during March on average Arctic ice extents nearly reach 15 Wadhams (15M km2) on Day 62, March 2.  A slow decline is normal until Day 91, March 31.  However, that period in 2024 saw Arctic ice go over 15M on day 68 and remain there until day 79. Afterward both MASIE and SII show above average extents to month end.  2006 was the first year in this dataset and ended March ~800k km2 in deficit to average.  2021 and 2023 were ~200k below average on Day 91 while 2024 ended 266k km2 surplus ice.   As usual in transitional months like March and September, SII (Sea Ice Index) shows a similar pattern with generally lower extents.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH February 2024: SH Saves Global Warming.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 91 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

Region	2024091	Day 91 ave	2024-Ave.	2006091	2024-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14854967	14589377	265590	13821470	1033497
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070226	758	1068683	2301
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	963401	2606	959091	6915
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1086151	987	1084120	3017
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	896053	1792	896510	1335
(5) Kara_Sea	935023	919656	15367	910487	24536
(6) Barents_Sea	845789	657875	187914	622588	223201
(7) Greenland_Sea	771533	661909	109624	601310	170223
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1238205	1384413	-146208	1003875	234330
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853089	1772	851691	3169
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1255353	5551	1240389	20514
(11) Central_Arctic	3248013	3235452	12561	3239349	8664
(12) Bering_Sea	724493	703487	21006	658979	65514
(13) Baltic_Sea	50165	61636	-11471	114622	-64457
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	900660	831057	69602	558027	342633

The overall surplus to average is 266k km2, (2%).  The only major deficit is in Baffin Bay, more than offset by surpluses everywhere, especially in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland seas.  Note Arctic ice yesterday was more than a Wadham greater than the same day in 2006.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

The animation shows growing Arctic ice extents over the last two weeks. Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the additions are visible on both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left).

The graph below shows March daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during March on average Arctic ice extents nearly reach 15 Wadhams (15M km2) on Day 62, March 2.  A slow decline is normal until Day 75, March 15.  However, that period in 2024 saw Arctic ice increase 430k km2, nearly half a Wadham.  Note also that this year ice extents rose above 15M already in February, and now in March ice has been well above that threshold for the last week.  2006 was the first year in this dataset and on Day 75 was 704k km2 less than yesterday.  As usual in transitional months like March and September SII (Sea Ice Index) shows a similar pattern with generally lower extents.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH January 2024: Ocean Warm, Land Cooling.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 75 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

Region	2024075	Day 75 Ave	2024-Ave.	2006075	2024-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	15124987	14895040	229947	14420679	704309
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070317	667	1069711	1273
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965891	115	964227	1779
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087110	27	1086702	435
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897773	71
(5) Kara_Sea	935023	920555	14469	921428	13595
(6) Barents_Sea	671826	643180	28646	646196	25630
(7) Greenland_Sea	771468	621747	149721	613161	158308
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1336897	1529678	-192781	1134817	202080
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853214	1646	852715	2145
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1258048	2855	1251360	9543
(11) Central_Arctic	3243865	3222218	21647	3244243	-378
(12) Bering_Sea	723227	735481	-12254	635252	87975
(13) Baltic_Sea	78741	80321	-1580	175063	-96322
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1215262	990338	224924	874372	340890

The overall surplus to average is 230k km2, (2%).  The only major deficit is in Baffin Bay, more than offset by surpluses in Okhotsk and Greenland seas.  Everywhere else is maxed out.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The highest daily average in the last 18 years occurs on day 61 at 15.08M before descending. Most years are able to clear 15M, but in recent previous years, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 ice extents failed to clear the bar at 15M km2.  On February 11, 2024 (day 42) Arctic ice extent already leaped over that bar 20 days early. Then extent dropped for several days, but has again topped 15 Wadhams with ice in Asian basins contributing greatly.

The animation shows Pacific ice growth in the last week.  Bering Sea on the right changed little, while Okhotsk in the center added ice down to N. Japan, and now well above 2023 March maximum.  The ice patch in far left is the harbor close to Beijing where the Yellow Sea added 20K km2 ice extent in two days.

The graph shows the rapid rise in Arctic ice reaching 15 M km2 extent already on Feb. 11 (day 42)  Then the extent dropped down to 14.6M before rising again to reach a new high of 15.07M. Yesterday Arctic ice was 215k km2 above average, with nearly all the surplus appearing in Okhotsk.  SII showed neither the first peak or the current one in February.

The table shows the distribution of ice compared to day 56 averages and other years on that day.

Region	2024056	Day 56 Ave	2024-Ave.	2006056	2024-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	15039168	14823967	215201	14318117	721051
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070317	667	1069711	1273
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	964499	1507	961796	4210
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087109	28	1086702	435
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897773	71
(5) Kara_Sea	925734	916917	8818	899871	25864
(6) Barents_Sea	598915	606693	-7778	484567	114348
(7) Greenland_Sea	742472	612727	129745	577357	165115
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1391601	1508331	-116730	1365491	26110
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853163	1697	852715	2145
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260462	441	1257077	3827
(11) Central_Arctic	3220834	3210037	10797	3214577	6257
(12) Bering_Sea	619130	665856	-46727	629210	-10080
(13) Baltic_Sea	85666	98767	-13101	101029	-15363
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1282477	1028678	253799	853467	429010

Note that moderate deficits in Bering Sea and Baffin Bay are more than offset by a large 254k km2 surplus in Okhotsk along with 130k km2 in Greenland Sea.

These results fly in the face of those claiming for years that Arctic ice is in a “death spiral.”  More sober and clear-eyed observers have called out the alarmists for their exaggerations.  A recent example comes from Allan Alsup Jensen at Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, Denmark.  His December 2023 paper is Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Since 2007 no significant decline has been observed

Abstract

The NSIDC website, IPCC’s reports and some scientific papers have announced that the Arctic Sea ice extent, when it is lowest in September month, in recent years has declined dramatically, and in few decades the sea ice is supposed to disappear completely in the summer. In that way new and shorter ships routes will open up north of the continents.

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. However, before that time period, from 1978 to 1996, the downward trend was minimal, and in the last 17 years from 2007 to 2023 the downward trend has also been about zero. Therefore, there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted, in one or two decades.

Regarding the extent of the summer (February) sea ice at the Antarctic, the downward trend during the years 1979-2021 was very small but in 2022 and 2023 a considerable decline was observed, and a decline was also clearly observed for the whole period of 2007- 2023. That was in contradiction to what happened in the Arctic. The pattern of the annual levels was not the same for the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating different drivers in the North and the South.

Figure 4: The minimum extent of the sea ice at Antarctic
in February month 1979-2023 (data from NSIDC.org)

These data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.

Postscript Feb. 14

Some seek to deny the current plateau in Arctic Sea Ice by saying that extent measure is only surface, while volume would be a truer metric.  That is true in theory, but in practice obtaining accurate and consistent data on sea ice thickness is a challenge yet to be reached.  As you can imagine, detecting a depth dimension from satellites is fraught with errors, especially with drift ice not land anchored, moving around, sometimes piling up from winds.  The scientific effort to measure volume has a short history and several uncertainties to ovecome before it can be trusted.

Unfortunately for those wanting an ice free Arctic (well, no more than 1 Wadham they say), the volume record so far shows the same plateau:

“Satellite derived sea ice thickness (CryoSat 2, AWI algorithm v2.6) shows an anomaly thickness pattern very similar to that from PIOMAS, but CS2 shows negative anomalies propagating north of the Canadian Archipelago into the central Arctic while PIOMAS has neutral conditions there. A positive thickness anomaly around Wrangle Island is spatially more extensive in CS2. January 2024 adds another month to the record of CS2 data which now spans 13 years. Neither CS2 nor PIOMAS show any discernible trend over that time period underlining the importance of internal variability at decadal timescales.”  Source: Polar Science Center

 

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The highest daily average in the last 18 years occurs on day 61 at 15.08M before descending. Most years are able to clear 15M, but in recent previous years, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 ice extents failed to clear the bar at 15M km2.  Now on February 11, 2024 (day 42) Arctic ice extent has already leaped over that bar 20 days early.

The graph shows how rapidly the Arctic froze this year, reaching 14.4M km2 extent already on January 24.  Then the extent waffled around that level, until suddenly a Hockey Stick shape appeared when 600k km2 of ice was added in just the last four days. That is 400k km2 above average, and well above many other years, including 2006.  SII is also lagging at 400k km2 lower.

The table shows the distribution of ice compared to day 45 averages and other years on that day.

Region	2024042	Day 45 Ave.	2024-Ave.	2006045	2024-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	15040629	14687838	352791	14419407	621223
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070317	667	1069711	1273
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965761	245	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087103	35
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897773	71
(5) Kara_Sea	934647	908486	26161	932726	1920
(6) Barents_Sea	662793	582078	80715	530801	131992
(7) Greenland_Sea	825638	622774	202864	579677	245961
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1340370	1456370	-115999	1227497	112873
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853383	1478	852715	2145
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260579	325	1257433	3470
(11) Central_Arctic	3233243	3208074	25168	3198987	34255
(12) Bering_Sea	631508	700745	-69237	889518	-258010
(13) Baltic_Sea	136308	90991	45317	79904	56404
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1101713	923694	178019	759197	342516

The Pacific basins show a moderate deficit in Bering Sea offset by a large 178k km2 surplus in Okhotsk.  Baffin Bay is down 120k km2, offset by Greenland Sea over 200k km2 and Barents up 81k km2.

These results fly in the face of those claiming for years that Arctic ice is in a “death spiral.”  More sober and clear-eyed observers have called out the alarmists for their exaggerations.  A recent example comes from Allan Alsup Jensen at Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, Denmark.  His December 2023 paper is Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Since 2007 no significant decline has been observed

Abstract

The NSIDC website, IPCC’s reports and some scientific papers have announced that the Arctic Sea ice extent, when it is lowest in September month, in recent years has declined dramatically, and in few decades the sea ice is supposed to disappear completely in the summer. In that way new and shorter ships routes will open up north of the continents.

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. However, before that time period, from 1978 to 1996, the downward trend was minimal, and in the last 17 years from 2007 to 2023 the downward trend has also been about zero. Therefore, there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted, in one or two decades.

Regarding the extent of the summer (February) sea ice at the Antarctic, the downward trend during the years 1979-2021 was very small but in 2022 and 2023 a considerable decline was observed, and a decline was also clearly observed for the whole period of 2007- 2023. That was in contradiction to what happened in the Arctic. The pattern of the annual levels was not the same for the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating different drivers in the North and the South.

Figure 4: The minimum extent of the sea ice at Antarctic
in February month 1979-2023 (data from NSIDC.org)

These data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.

Postscript Feb. 14

Some seek to deny the current plateau in Arctic Sea Ice by saying that extent measure is only surface, while volume would be a truer metric.  That is true in theory, but in practice obtaining accurate and consistent data on sea ice thickness is a challenge yet to be reached.  As you can imagine, detecting a depth dimension from satellites is fraught with errors, especially with drift ice not land anchored, moving around, sometimes piling up from winds.  The scientific effort to measure volume has a short history and several uncertainties to ovecome before it can be trusted.

Unfortunately for those wanting an ice free Arctic (well, no more than 1 Wadham they say), the volume record so far shows the same plateau:

“Satellite derived sea ice thickness (CryoSat 2, AWI algorithm v2.6) shows an anomaly thickness pattern very similar to that from PIOMAS, but CS2 shows negative anomalies propagating north of the Canadian Archipelago into the central Arctic while PIOMAS has neutral conditions there. A positive thickness anomaly around Wrangle Island is spatially more extensive in CS2. January 2024 adds another month to the record of CS2 data which now spans 13 years. Neither CS2 nor PIOMAS show any discernible trend over that time period underlining the importance of internal variability at decadal timescales.”  Source: Polar Science Center

 

Impressive Arctic ice recovery continued in January, growing a month’s worth in just three weeks, as seen in the animation below:

In three weeks of January 2024, the Arctic added nearly a full Wadham of ice (1M km2). The animation shows Hudson Bay (lower right) freezing completely.  Just above Hudson, you can see the Gulf of St. Lawrence icing over, and Baffin Bay adding ice, extending fast ice all the way to Newfoundland, now up to 64% of its annual maximum.

At the extreme and lower left, Okhotsk and Bering Seas also grow rapidly. Okhotsk grew ice extent up to 914k, 81% of its max last March.  Bering grew up to 514k km2, 68% of its max.  At the top Kara freezes over and Barents and Greenland Seas add ice to their margins.The graph below shows the January ice recovery.

Note the average January ends at 14.36 km2 while 2024 has already reached 14.33 km2, up from 13.39 km2 at the start, and presently  288k km2 above average. SII started slightly lower than MASIE and tracked quite closely since. Note that other recent years have varied below the 18-year average at month end.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 18-year averages and some recent years.

Region	2024022	Day 22	2024-Ave.	2018022	2024-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14333601	14045488	288112	13505957	827644
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070317	667	1070445	538
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965999	7	965971	35
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	932571	910022	22549	891776	40795
(6) Barents_Sea	712531	530554	181977	322465	390067
(7) Greenland_Sea	703581	601855	101726	465828	237753
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1050488	1239519	-189031	1330666	-280179
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853382	1479	853109	1752
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260695	209	1260838	66
(11) Central_Arctic	3230107	3203377	26730	3165195	64912
(12) Bering_Sea	513853	600796	-86943	343164	170689
(13) Baltic_Sea	93892	56072	37820	44364	49528
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	914275	720482	193793	782100	132175

This year’s ice extent is 288k km2 or 2.1% above average.  Only Baffin Bay and Bering have deficits to average, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, espcially Greenland, Barents and Okhotsk seas. Many of the others are already maxed out.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and NH snow cover.

 

Many noticed the Gore effect during COP28 when Arctic ice extents grew rapidly to catch up and exceed normal. Now in the first 10 days of January Arctic ice is growing way faster than normal. On the left, both Bering and Okhotsk seas are now ~65% of their maxes. Kara at top is 100% of max and Barents next to Kara is 83% of max. Overall, the Arctic has already reached 93% of last year’s Mid March maximum.

Coincidently, COP28 also triggered heavy snow bringing chaos to southern Germany causing Munich to suspend flights to anywhere, including Dubai. Now January is breaking the glazed ceiling outstriping past conditions.

The graph below shows the gains in ice extent the first 10 days of January 2024, the 18 year average and some other recent years, as well as SII (Sea Ice Index).

MASIE and SII are both well above the 18 year average, and almost 10 days ahead of it. 2024 is on the verge of breaking 14M km2, just 400k km2 short of normal extents at end of January.  

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2024010	Day 10	2024-Ave.	2007010	2024-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13940138	13508235	431903	13334598	605540
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070352	614	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965221	785	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087137	0
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897836	8	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	934227	914139	20088	909703	24524
(6) Barents_Sea	593194	463310	129884	363027	230166
(7) Greenland_Sea	722914	577267	145647	576959	145955
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	941219	1088951	-147732	934564	6655
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853418	1442	852767	2094
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1249501	11402	1260839	65
(11) Central_Arctic	3233482	3202675	30807	3204750	28732
(12) Bering_Sea	492428	503203	-10775	606863	-114435
(13) Baltic_Sea	128886	33634	95252	3303	125582
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	729537	565328	164209	585350	144187

Note that Arctic ice now nearly 14M km2 and  432k km2 above average, or 3.2%.  As shown in the table above, the only deficit to average is in Baffin Bay,  Offsetting are surpluses elsewhere, especially in Greenland sea, along with Barents and Okhotsk seas. Really, the only regions left to grow much up to max are Baffin Bay, Bering and Okhotsk seas.

 

 

Impressive Arctic ice recovery continued in December as seen in the animation below:

The month of December 2023 shows Hudson Bay (lower right) starting with some western shore ice and ending 92% ice covered, adding in that basin ~800k km2. Just above Hudson, you can see the Gulf of St. Lawrence icing over, and Baffin Bay adding ice as well, now up to 50% of its annual maximum.

At the extreme and lower left, Okhotsk and Bering Seas also start with little shore ice. Okhotsk grew ice extent from 57k km2 up to 530k, 62% of its max last March.  Bering grew from 48k up to 478k km2, 56% of its max.  At the top Kara freezes over and Barents and Greenland Seas add ice to their margins. The graph below shows the December ice recovery. (Day 365 coming, and may be delayed by holiday.)

Note the average year adds 2M km2 while 2023 added ~2.5M, now 361k km2 above average. SII started 200k km2 lower than MASIE and ended up with the same deficit. Note that the other years are not far from the 17-year average at year end.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 17-year averages and some recent years.

Region	2023364	Day 364	2023-Ave.	2007364	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13335688	12974817	360871	13049737	285951
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070352	614	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	963344	2662	965971	35
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087120	17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897841	4	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	923106	880831	42275	871851	51255
(6) Barents_Sea	423772	415592	8179	334577	89194
(7) Greenland_Sea	739662	579776	159886	666135	73528
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	911691	965051	-53360	1074827	-163136
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853421	1439	852556	2304
(10) Hudson_Bay	1165656	1234412	-68757	1260856	-95201
(11) Central_Arctic	3218074	3205662	12412	3199726	18348
(12) Bering_Sea	472476	391321	81155	373942	98534
(13) Baltic_Sea	44969	27442	17527	9972	34997
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	530117	377911	152206	371241	158876

This year’s ice extent is 361k km2 or 2.8% above average.  Only Baffin Bay and Hudson have deficits to average, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, espcially Greenland, Bering and Okhotsk seas. Many of the others are already maxed out.

Comparing Arctic Ice at End of Years

At  the bottom is a discussion of statistics on year-end Arctic Sea Ice extents.  The values are averages of the last five days of each year.  End of December is a neutral point in the melting-freezing cycle, midway between September minimum and March maximum extents.

Background from Previous Post Updated to Year-End 2023

Some years ago reading a thread on global warming at WUWT, I was struck by one person’s comment: “I’m an actuary with limited knowledge of climate metrics, but it seems to me if you want to understand temperature changes, you should analyze the changes, not the temperatures.” That rang bells for me, and I applied that insight in a series of Temperature Trend Analysis studies of surface station temperature records. Those posts are available under this heading. Climate Compilation Part I Temperatures

This post seeks to understand Arctic Sea Ice fluctuations using a similar approach: Focusing on the rates of extent changes rather than the usual study of the ice extents themselves. Fortunately, Sea Ice Index (SII) from NOAA provides a suitable dataset for this project. As many know, SII relies on satellite passive microwave sensors to produce charts of Arctic Ice extents going back to 1979.  The current Version 3 has become more closely aligned with MASIE, the modern form of Naval ice charting in support of Arctic navigation. The SII User Guide is here.

There are statistical analyses available, and the one of interest (table below) is called Sea Ice Index Rates of Change (here). As indicated by the title, this spreadsheet consists not of monthly extents, but changes of extents from the previous month. Specifically, a monthly value is calculated by subtracting the average of the last five days of the previous month from this month’s average of final five days. So the value presents the amount of ice gained or lost during the present month.

These monthly rates of change have been compiled into a baseline for the period 1980 to 2010, which shows the fluctuations of Arctic ice extents over the course of a calendar year. Below is a graph of those averages of monthly changes up to and including this year. Those familiar with Arctic Ice studies will not be surprised at the sine wave form. December end is a relatively neutral point in the cycle, midway between the September Minimum and March Maximum.

The graph makes evident the six spring/summer months of melting and the six autumn/winter months of freezing.  Note that June-August produce the bulk of losses, while October-December show the bulk of gains. Also the peak and valley months of March and September show very little change in extent from beginning to end.

The table of monthly data reveals the variability of ice extents over the last 4 decades.

The values in January show changes from the end of the previous December, and by summing twelve consecutive months we can calculate an annual rate of change for the years 1979 to 2023.

As many know, there has been a decline of Arctic ice extent over these 40 years, averaging 70k km2 per year. But year over year, the changes shift constantly between gains and losses, ranging up to +/- 500k km2.  Since 1989 the average yearend gain/loss is nearly zero, -0.033k km2 to be exact.

Moreover, it seems random as to which months are determinative for a given year. For example, much ado was printed about 2023 losing more ice than usual June through September. But then the final 3 months of 2023 more than made up for those summer losses, resulting in a sizeable gain for the year.

As it happens in this dataset, October has the highest rate of adding ice. The table below shows the variety of monthly rates in the record as anomalies from the 1980-2010 baseline. In this exhibit a red cell is a negative anomaly (less than baseline for that month) and blue is positive (higher than baseline).

Note that the  +/ –  rate anomalies are distributed all across the grid, sequences of different months in different years, with gains and losses offsetting one another.  As noted earlier,  in 2023 the outlier negative months were June through September where unusual amounts of ice were lost.  Then unusally strong gains in October and December resulted in a large annual gain, compared to the baseline. The bottom line presents the average anomalies for each month over the period 1979-2021.  Note the rates of gains and losses mostly offset, and the average of all months in the bottom right cell is virtually zero.

A final observation: The graph below shows the Yearend Arctic Ice Extents for the last 34 years.

Year-end Arctic ice extents (last 5 days of December) show three distinct regimes: 1988-1998, 1998-2010, 2010-2022. The average year-end extent 1989-2010 is 13.4M km2. In the last decade, 2011 was 13.0M km2, and six years later, 2017 was 12.3M km2. 2021 rose back to 13.06  2022 slipped back to 12.6M, and 2023 is back up to 13.0M. So for all the the fluctuations, the net is zero, or a gain of half a Wadham (0.5M) from 2010. Talk of an Arctic ice death spiral is fanciful.

These data show a noisy, highly variable natural phenomenon. Clearly, unpredictable factors are in play, principally water structure and circulation, atmospheric circulation regimes, and also incursions and storms. And in the longer view, today’s extents are not unusual.

 

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.