Arctic Ice Marches Upward 2024

The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, now overcome by 2024.

The graph below shows Monthly averages for March since 2007.  March is the maximum month in the annual cycle in contrast to September being the minimum Arctic ice extents. Note the low 2007 extents followed by several years over15M km2, then lesser extents 2015 to 2018, and increasing extents up to 2024 nearly averaging 15M for the month.

 

The graph below shows March daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

 

The black line shows during March on average Arctic ice extents nearly reach 15 Wadhams (15M km2) on Day 62, March 2.  A slow decline is normal until Day 91, March 31.  However, that period in 2024 saw Arctic ice go over 15M on day 68 and remain there until day 79. Afterward both MASIE and SII show above average extents to month end.  2006 was the first year in this dataset and ended March ~800k km2 in deficit to average.  2021 and 2023 were ~200k below average on Day 91 while 2024 ended 266k km2 surplus ice.   As usual in transitional months like March and September, SII (Sea Ice Index) shows a similar pattern with generally lower extents.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH February 2024: SH Saves Global Warming.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 91 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

Region 2024091 Day 91 ave 2024-Ave. 2006091 2024-2006
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14854967 14589377 265590 13821470 1033497
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070983 1070226 758 1068683 2301
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 966006 963401 2606 959091 6915
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1086151 987 1084120 3017
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 896053 1792 896510 1335
 (5) Kara_Sea 935023 919656 15367 910487 24536
 (6) Barents_Sea 845789 657875 187914 622588 223201
 (7) Greenland_Sea 771533 661909 109624 601310 170223
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1238205 1384413 -146208 1003875 234330
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854860 853089 1772 851691 3169
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1255353 5551 1240389 20514
 (11) Central_Arctic 3248013 3235452 12561 3239349 8664
 (12) Bering_Sea 724493 703487 21006 658979 65514
 (13) Baltic_Sea 50165 61636 -11471 114622 -64457
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 900660 831057 69602 558027 342633

The overall surplus to average is 266k km2, (2%).  The only major deficit is in Baffin Bay, more than offset by surpluses everywhere, especially in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland seas.  Note Arctic ice yesterday was more than a Wadham greater than the same day in 2006.

bathymetric_map_arctic_ocean

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

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