Arctic Ice Above Average July 16, 2022

 

The image above shows melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the first half of July 2022.  As usual, on the extreme left of the image, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk seas are entirely open water.  Meanwhile on the lower far right, Hudson Bay ice retreats from 600k km2 to 300k km2 from north to south.  Note center right Hudson Strait opens up between Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.  At the top center Barents Sea is mostly open water, while Kara Sea upper left lost 200k km2 down to 29% of its last max.  Center left Laptev has melted somewhat, but still retains 63% of its maximum ice extent. The central mass of Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth, and as well as Beaufort Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) were slow to melt in July, retaining 91% of maximum ice in each basin.

The graph below shows the ice extent retreating mid June to mid July compared to some other years and the 16 year average (2006 to 2021 inclusive).

The chart black line shows that on average in these 30 days Arctic ice extent goes down 2.5 Wadhams (M km2).  2022 started nearly average, melted faster than average late June, then went surplus in July continuing to yesterday July 16.  SII was higher than MASIE some days, lower other days, but ended up the same. 2020 started 500k km2 down, and on day 197 was 800k km2 deficit to average. 

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Bering and Okhotsk are open water at this point and are dropped from this and future monthly updates. 

Region 2022197 Day 197 Average 2022-Ave. 2020197 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 8406464 8243242  163222  7467638 938826 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 971940 857420  114520  933571 38369 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 669852 624347  45504  613199 56653 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 928329 908426  19903  651811 276519 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 566487 546079  20408  133721 432765 
 (5) Kara_Sea 271923 335569  -63647  127208 144715 
 (6) Barents_Sea 15777 56412  -40635  40301 -24524 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 333097 398154  -65057  405198 -72102 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 383118 286652  96466  242131 140987 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 784359 706015  78344  737235 47124 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 293184 352063  -58880  495103 -201920 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3186972 3167895  19076  3087401 99571 

The main deficits to average are in  Kara, Barents, Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay,  more than offset by surpluses in  Beaufort, Chukchi, Baffin Bay and CAA.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Arctic Warming Alarm from New Mexico Models

Breaking News from Los Alamos National Laboratory at Science Daily Arctic temperatures are increasing four times faster than global warming. As you can see, the alarm is not based on field observations in the Arctic Circle, but comes from computers in Los Alamos, New Mexico. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Summary:
A new analysis of observed temperatures shows the Arctic is heating up more than four times faster than the rate of global warming. The trend has stepped upward steeply twice in the last 50 years, a finding missed by all but four of 39 climate models.

From 39 climate-change models in the widely used CMIP6 collection of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the international research team found four that reproduced the first step reasonably well around 1986, but none that reproduced the second step in 1999. CMIP is an international collaborative of climate models using a shared set of parameters. CMIP6 has been used to create recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report.

Arctic Warming Unalarming

Now let’s compare that fearful news with records from surface weather stations around the Arctic Circle.

Locations of arctic stations examined in this study

Locations of arctic stations examined in this study

An recent extensive analysis of Northern surface temperature records gives no support for Arctic “amplification” fears.

The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. Heretofore, it has been supposed that any global warming would be amplified in the Arctic. This may still be true if urban heat island effects are responsible for part of the observed temperature increase at European stations. However, European and Arctic temperatures have remained closely synchronized for over 200 years during the rapid growth of urban centres.

And the warming pattern in Europe and the Arctic is familiar and unalarming.

Arctic temperatures have increased during the period 1820– 2014. The warming has been larger in January than in July. Siberia, Alaska and Western Canada appear to have warmed slightly more than Eastern Canada, Greenland, Iceland and Northern Europe. The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000. The July temperature trend is even slightly negative for the period 1820–1990. The time series exhibit multidecadal temperature fluctuations which have also been found by other temperature reconstructions.

The paper is:

Arctic temperature trends from the early nineteenth century to the present W. A. van Wijngaarden, Theoretical & Applied Climatology (2015) here

Temperatures were examined at 118 stations located in the Arctic and compared to observations at 50 European stations whose records averaged 200 years and in a few cases extend to the early 1700s.

Fig. 3 Temperature change for a January, b July and c annual relative to the temperature during 1961 to 1990 for Arctic stations. The red curve is the moving 5-year average while the blue curve is the number of stations

Fig. 3 Temperature change for a January, b July and c annual relative to the temperature during 1961 to 1990 for Arctic stations. The red curve is the moving 5-year average while the blue curve is the number of stations

Summary

The data and results for all stations are provided in detail, and the findings are inescapable.

The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. . . The warming has not occurred at a steady rate. . .During the 1900s, all four (Arctic) regions experienced increasing temperatures until about 1940. Temperatures then decreased by about 1 °C over the next 50 years until rising in the 1990s.

For the period 1820–2014, the trends for the January, July and annual temperatures are 1.0, 0.0 and 0.7 °C per century, respectively. . . Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000.

Once again conclusions based on observations are ignored while projections from models are broadcast and circulated like gossip. The only amplification going on is the promotion of global warming alarms.

megaphone

Postscript: I did a study last of 25 World Class surface temperature records (all European) and found the same patterns (here).

Footnote:  I’ve had two reports from readers that my posts do not appear properly in their devices, in one case the email message and the other in browsers Firefox and Chrome.  I am not seeing this in my email notices or in my Chromium-based browser.  Please let me know it you are experiencing such difficulties or not.

2022 Arctic Ice Usual June Swoon

The image above shows melting of Arctic sea ice extent over the last half of June 2022.  As usual the process of declining ice extent follows a LIFO pattern:  Last In First Out.  That is, the marginal seas are the last to freeze and the first to melt.  Thus on the extreme left of the image, the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk seas are entirely open water.  Meanwhile on the lower right, Hudson Bay ice retreats 400k km2 from north to south.  Note center right Hudson Strait opens up between Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay.  At the top center Barents Sea ice retreated down to 40k km2 or 5% of its last maximum. Kara Sea upper left lost 340k km2 down to 45% of its last max.  Center left Laptev has melted somewhat, but still retains 76% of its maximum ice extent. The central mass of Arctic ice is intact with some fluctuations back and forth, and as well as Beaufort Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) were slow to melt in June, retaining 97% of maximum ice in each basin.

The graph below shows the ice extent retreating during June compared to some other years and the 16 year average (2006 to 2021 inclusive).

The chart black line shows that on average in June Arctic ice extent goes down 1.8M km2.  2020, as well as 2007 started June above average, but ended the month matching average. SII was higher than MASIE some days, but ended up the same.  Since Hudson Bay melts the most at this time, the dark green line shows the Arctic total excluding Hudson Bay (HB).  The light green is 2022 minus HB, showing that most of the surplus to average ice was in Hudson Bay starting June, and then retreated to average in the second half of June.  Again note that Hudson Bay is outside the Arctic circle and will be open water soon.

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Bering and Okhotsk are open water at this point and are dropped from this and future monthly updates. 

Region 2022181 Day 181 Average 2022-Ave. 2020181 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 9732940 9751345  -18405  9164791 568149 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1033264 921004  112260  983906 49358 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 717500 723606  -6105  734107 -16607 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1060947 1006910  54037  879242 181705 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 690688 700482  -9794  522834 167855 
 (5) Kara_Sea 416591 550493  -133903  292013 124578 
 (6) Barents_Sea 48841 121301  -72460  145978 -97137 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 480208 501184  -20976  422780 57427 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 647844 505146  142698  479013 168831 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 828864 777527  51337  772844 56020 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 618405 712913  -94508  687820 -69416 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3181467 3205732  -24265  3235700 -54234 

The main deficits to average are in  Kara, Barents and Hudson Bay,  offset by surpluses in  Beaufort, East Siberian, Baffin Bay and CAA.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Mid June Arctic Ice Returns to Mean

The Arctic ice melting season was delayed this year as shown by the end of May (day 151) surplus of 600k km2 over the 16-yr average.  Since then both MASIE and SII show a steep decline in Arctic ice extents, now matching the average for June 15 (day 166).  The reports show that Barents alone lost 320k km2, Laptev down 200k km2, Baffin Bay lost 165k km2, Chukchi, Kara, Greenland seas all lost around 100k km2 each.

For the month of June Hudson Bay will take the stage.  Above average early in June. Hudson Bay lost 100k km2 the last six days. Being a shallow basin, it will likely lose much of its 1M km2 in a few weeks.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Floodings

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_level
The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region 2022166 Day 166 Average 2022-Ave. 2020166 2022-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 10788609 10854645  -66036  10425585 363024 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1054571 964886  89685  1005355 49216 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 799723 796983  2740  775535 24188 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1059777 1050162  9615  1013223 46554 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 686049 773271  -87221  782244 -96194 
 (5) Kara_Sea 712542 715202  -2659  513253 199289 
 (6) Barents_Sea 79046 206557  -127511  164943 -85896 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 539319 566915  -27596  578130 -38812 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 799919 706060  93859  592090 207829 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 838798 795875  42923  792582 46215 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 957895 986396  -28501  937993 19902 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3216668 3220647  -3979  3231087 -14419 

The main deficits are in Laptev and Barents Seas, mostly offset by surpluses in Beaufort, Baffin and Canadian Archipelago.

 

 

 

May 31 Arctic Ocean Frozen Solid

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 151 (end of May) from 2006 to yesterday 2022. It is evident that typically there are some regional seas starting to melt by this date, whereas 2022 remains frozen solid.  More detailed analysis is below, but note the 2022 surplus is 600k km2, or 5% above the 16 year average for day 151.  That extra ice extent amounts to 0.6 Wadhams, or 6826 Manhattan Islands, whichever index you prefer.  The graph below shows May 2022 daily ice extents compared to the 16-year average and some other years of note.

The black line shows during May on average Arctic ice extents decline ~1.8M km2 down to 11.7M km2.  The 2022 cyan MASIE line only lost 1.3M km2, starting the month 141k km2 above average and on day 151 showed a surplus of  598k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) starter lower than MASIE, then ran over in later weeks, ending May nearly the same. The dark green line is average Arctic ice, excluding Bering and Okhotsk (B&O), which started melting early in 2022. The light green line is 2022 without B&O.  As of day 151, the 2022 B&O extent matches the average B&O, so the ~600k km2 surplus is entirely in the core Arctic ocean.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 151 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region 2022151 Day 151 Average 2022-Ave. 2021151 2022-2021
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 12281289 11682840 598449 11605537 675752
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1060171 1003588 56582 1034779 25392
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 894077 865036 29040 900868 -6792
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1085478 1064424 21054 1051959 33520
 (4) Laptev_Sea 877340 824419 52921 738294 139047
 (5) Kara_Sea 870898 829705 41193 824068 46831
 (6) Barents_Sea 421071 305918 115153 325745 95326
 (7) Greenland_Sea 665639 562229 103411 615174 50465
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 976116 897470 78647 812548 163568
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854703 810848 43855 811040 43663
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1122388 1088994 33395 1084892 37496
 (11) Central_Arctic 3245183 3216568 28615 3232324 12859
 (12) Bering_Sea 116552 115657 895 89124 27428
 (13) Baltic_Sea 915 199 717 0 915
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 89260 96309 -7049 83572 5688

The overall surplus to average is 598k km2, (5%).  The surplus is found in every region, except for a slight deficit in Okhotsk

bathymetric_map_arctic_ocean

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Mid May Arctic Ice Persistent

An early-spring sunset over the icy Chukchi Sea near Barrow (Utqiaġvik), Alaska, documented during the OASIS field project (Ocean_Atmosphere_Sea Ice_Snowpack) on March 22, 2009. Image credit: UCAR, photo by Carlye Calvin.

Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, staying above that level the first week of March, then followed by typical melting in March and April.  Now in May,  Arctic sea ice is not retreating as fast as usual.  The chart below shows by day 134 (May 14), the overall ice extent in cyan  was 353k km2 above the 16 year average in black.

Note the much higher ice extents in 2022 compared to 2021 (+543k) or 2007 (+619k).  The green lines show that the above normal ice this year is despite low extents in Bering and Okhotsk (B&O) seas.  The averages in dark green (excluding B&O) are below 2022 in light green (excluding B&O) by 477k km2.  IOW everywhere in the Arctic except Okhotsk ice extents are almost 1/2 Wadham above average, nearly matching day 134 Arctic including Bering and Okhotsk.  Remember also that B&O are outside the Arctic circle, have no Polar bears, and are among the first to melt out every spring.

The table below shows ice extents in the seas comprising the Arctic, comparing 2022 day 134 with the same day average over the last 16 years and with 2007.

Region 2022134 Day 134 Average 2022-Ave. 2007134 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13084542 12731703 352839 12465425 619117
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1042530 1048465 -5934 1057649 -15119
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 958909 927455 31454 952925 5984
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1081479 5659 1080156 6981
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 881321 16524 850822 47022
 (5) Kara_Sea 894992 886185 8807 876053 18939
 (6) Barents_Sea 612751 417074 195677 351553 261198
 (7) Greenland_Sea 674248 623405 50843 560102 114147
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1206195 1080371 125824 1029612 176583
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854685 840361 14324 830604 24081
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1213151 1190185 22966 1161738 51413
 (11) Central_Arctic 3248013 3224787 23226 3234305 13708
 (12) Bering_Sea 257260 319952 -62692 309846 -52586
 (13) Baltic_Sea 9044 8179 865 6368 2675
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 125465 200107 -74641 159942 -34476

The table shows that 2022 ice extent is above average by 353k km2, or 2.8%, and exceeding 2007 by 619k km2 at this date. The two deficits to average are Bering and Okhotsk, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere,  especially in Barents and Baffin Bay.

Polar Bear on Ice in Baffin Bay Between Baffin Island and Greenland

 

May 8 Arctic Ice A-OK

My previous Arctic ice report was limited by technical difficulties, now resolved as shown by the animation above.  So this update comes a week into May, with the animation covering the last three weeks from mid April.   The dramatic melting in the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk (left) sets them apart from the rest of Arctic sea ice. As noted before, those two basins are outside the Arctic circle, have no polar bears and are the first places to become open water in the Spring. Elsewhere sea ice persisted, actually growing in Barents and Greenland seas.

[The staff at National Ice Center were extremely helpful, as usual.  Their work is distinctive, valuable and deserving of your appreciation.  See Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset]

The melting effect on NH total ice extents during this period is presented in the graph below.

The graph above shows ice extent mid-April through May 7 comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII.  2022 ice extents have tracked the average, going surplus for the last 10 days. .Both 2021 and 2007 are well below average, on day 127 lower than 2022 by 318k km2 and 443k km2 respectively. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Bering and Okhotsk ice are excluded.  On this basis 2022 Arctic ice was nearly 400k km2 in surplus on May 7, and prior to yesterday, the horizontal line shows little loss of ice extent elsewhere than in the Pacific.

Region 2022127 Day 127 Average 2022-Ave. 2007127 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13272388 13096082  176306  12954671 317717 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1053640 1059642  -6001  1056022 -2382 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 959821 949409  10412  955497 4324 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1085912  1225  1081248 5889 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 892770  5075  870216 27628 
 (5) Kara_Sea 928813 897443  31370  883059 45754 
 (6) Barents_Sea 642899 476820  166079  430155 212745 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 732835 616488  116347  639861 92974 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1185073 1140285  44787  1076913 108159 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854685 845807  8879  845091 9594 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1216867 1212411  4456  1192270 24597 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3248013 3223344  24669  3241053 6960 
 (12) Bering_Sea 275935 401584 -125649  398914 -122980 
 (13) Baltic_Sea 14465 13264  1201  10416 4050 
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 172221 278245  -106023  269684 -97463 

The only deficits to average are in Bering and Okhotsk, more than offset by surpluses everywhere else, especially in Barents and Greenland seas, along with Kara and Baffin Bay.  At this point, overall NH sea ice is 88% of last March maximum (15.1M kim2).  All regions are well above 90% of their maxes, except for Barents (81%), Baffin Bay (66%), Bering (33%) and Okhotsk (20%).

 

April 1st Footnote:

It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:

In addition, cold Spring temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:

Not only Polar bears are flourishing!

 

May 1 Arctic Ice Persists Strangely

Double-click to enlarge image.

Arctic ice extent changes for the last two weeks are shown in the MASIE animation above. Note that the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk (upper left) melted dramatically.  Meanwhile on the Atlantic side ice persisted, actually growing in Barents and Greenland seas.

The strangeness concerns weirdness in Google Earth Pro treatment of kmz files from MASIE.  Previous I have used these to produce animations like the one below for the month of March.

Today when attempting to do the same for April, this is what was shown.

That is a screen capture since Google Earth could not render an image.  I hope it is just a temporary technical difficulty.  But I can’t help but imagine this depicting some kind of military map with a two-pronged attack by red forces with a single resisting force in red and blue. Is it more virtuous canceling of all things Russian at the expense of scientific inquiry? (The mask with colors was only imposed on the Northern Hemisphere)

The melting effect on NH total ice extents during April is presented in the graph below.

The graph above shows ice extent through April comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII.  On average ice extents lost 1.1M km2 during April.  2022 ice extents started slightly lower, then tracked average, ending slightly above average. Both 2021 and 2007 ended  below average, by 200k km2 and 400k km2 respectively. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Bering and Okhotsk ice are excluded.  On this basis 2022 Arctic was nearly 400k km2 in surplus at end of April.

Region 2022120 Day 120 Average 2022-Ave. 2007120 2022-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13623874 13507670  116204  13108068 515806 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070776 1067739  3036  1059189 11587 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 963424 955654  7770  949246 14178 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1085485  1652  1080176 6961 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 889961  7884  875661 22184 
 (5) Kara_Sea 932842 911757  21084  864664 68178 
 (6) Barents_Sea 654813 547685  107129  396544 258270 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 777073 640123  136950  644438 132635 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1243689 1205315  38374  1147115 96574 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854685 848564  6121  838032 16653 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1240262 1238267  1995  1222074 18188 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3247307 3229654  17652  3241034 6272 
 (12) Bering_Sea 334929 482018 -147089  475489 -140560 
 (13) Baltic_Sea 22696 20622  2074  14684 8012 
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 294259 381697  -87438  295743 -1484 

The only deficits to average are in Bering and Okhotsk, more than offset by surpluses everywhere else, especially in Barents and Greenland seas. 2007 extents were lower by 516k km2 (half a Wadham)

 

April 1st Footnote:

It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:

In addition, cold Spring temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:

Not only Polar bears are flourishing!

 

Mid April Arctic Ice Above Average

Drift ice in Okhotsk Sea at sunrise.

Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, staying above that level the first week of March, then followed by typical melting in March. As the chart below shows, mid March the overall ice extent was ~400k km2 below the 16 year average, before returning to the mean day 89 and tracking the average since then.

Note the much higher ice extents in 2022 compared to 2021 or 2007.  The green lines show that the above normal ice this year is despite low extents in Sea of Okhotsk.  The averages in dark green (excluding Okhotsk) are below 2022 in light green (excluding Okhotsk) by nearly 200k km2.  IOW everywhere in the Arctic except Okhotsk ice extents are well above average.  Remember also that Okhotsk basin is outside the Arctic circle, has no Polar bears, and is among the first to melt out every spring.

The table below shows ice extents in the seas comprising the Arctic, comparing 2022 day 102 with the same day average over the last 16 years and with 2021.

Region 2022102 Day 102 Average 2022-Ave. 2021102 2022-2021
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14276734 14220846 55888 13625046 651688
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070776 1069263 1513 1070689 87
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 966006 963080 2926 966006 0
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1085847 1290 1087137 0
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 895064 2781 897827 18
 (5) Kara_Sea 935023 922556 12467 900979 34045
 (6) Barents_Sea 708728 615602 93126 349338 359390
 (7) Greenland_Sea 646204 655532 -9329 671290 -25086
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1281551 1286670 -5119 1132374 149177
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854685 852712 1973 854597 88
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1246035 14868 1249891 11012
 (11) Central_Arctic 3238576 3230459 8117 3167541 71035
 (12) Bering_Sea 765331 658850 106481 545689 219642
 (13) Baltic_Sea 51751 47121 4630 21897 29854
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 506073 685897 -179824 704441 -198368

The table shows that 2022 ice extent is slightly above average and exceeding 2021 by 652k km2 at this date. Surpluses are sizeable in Bering and Barents, more than offsetting the major Okhotsk deficit. All other regions are showing as typically frozen basins.

Polar Bear on Ice in Baffin Bay Between Baffin Island and Greenland

 

April 1 Resilient Arctic Ice (No Fooling)

Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, followed by a typical small melt in March.  Climatology refers to the March monthly average ice extent as indicative of the annual maximum Arctic ice extent.  The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007, typically around the SII average of 14.7 M km2.  Of course there are regional differences as described later on.

The animation shows ice extent fluctuations during March 2022. Bering Sea (lower left) gained ice over the month, while ice in Okhotsk (higher left) retreated. At the top Kara and Barents seas lost and then gained ice.  Baffin Bay lower right lost ice during March.  The main changes were Baffin losing ~360k km2 of extent and Okhotsk losing ~260k km2.

The effect on NH total ice extents is presented in the graph below.

The graph above shows ice extent through March comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII.  Hovering around 15M km2 the first week, 2022 ice extents dropped sharply mid month, then stabilized and at March end matched the average. Both 2020 and 2021 ended nearly 400k km2 below average. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Okhotsk ice is excluded.  On this basis 2022 Arctic was nearly 400k km2 in surplus, then declined mid month before ending nearly 200k km2 in surplus to average, except for the ice shortage in Okhotsk.

Region 2022090 Day 90 Average 2022-Ave. 2021090 2022-2021
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14563095 14616765  -53670  14266634 296461 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070776 1070116  660  1070689 87 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 966006 963906  2100  966006
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1086102  1035  1087137
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 896958  887  897827 18 
 (5) Kara_Sea 935023 918083  16941  935023
 (6) Barents_Sea 748326 645014  103311  602392 145934 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 616239 652388  -36148  620574 -4334 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1441014 1400528  40486  1243739 197275 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854685 852982  1703  854597 88 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1254217  6687  1260903
 (11) Central_Arctic 3245216 3232275  12941  3192844 52373 
 (12) Bering_Sea 785874 720525 65348  549939 235935 
 (13) Baltic_Sea 52068 63446  -11377  33543 18525 
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 596190 849221  -253031  942085 -345895 

The table shows that the large deficit in Okhotsk is only partially offset by surpluses in Bering and Barents Seas.  All other regions show typical extents at end of March

 

April 1st Footnote:

It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:

In addition, cold March temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:

Not only Polar bears are flourishing!