2026 March Arctic Ice Recovery Slowed by Vortex

The arctic ice extents are now reported through end of March 2026, the month whose average is taken as the annual maximum.  As noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This may be changing according to the most recent image from AER PV blog.

Figure 12. Observed 10 mb geopotential heights (dam; contours) and temperature anomalies (°C; shading) across the Northern Hemisphere averaged from 17 Mar. (b) Same as (a) except forecasted averaged from 28 Mar to 1 Apr 2026. The forecasts are from the 00Z 17 Mar 2026 GFS ensemble.

Remarkably, the 2025 annual daily extent maximum of 14.48M km2 was on day 73 of that year.  Arctic ice reached 14.55 on day 63 in 2026, and continued near that level until day 74, before starting the usual decline.

The chart below shows the 20-year averages for Arctic ice extents for March along with 2026, 2025 and 2006 as well as SII v.4.

 

The 20-year average maximum daily ice extent appears at 14.93M km2 on day 71 before starting to decline. MASIE 2006 and 2026 started this period the same and tracked each other until 2026 ended higher by ~200k km2, and slightly above 2025.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 90 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region 2026090 Day 90 Average 2026-Ave. 2006090 2026-2006
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14149101 14587351 -438250 13913402 235699
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1071070 1070279 791 1068683 2387
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 966006 964325 1681 959091 6915
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1086309 828 1084627 2510
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897135 709 897773 71
 (5) Kara_Sea 930404 918948 11456 922164 8240
 (6) Barents_Sea 582189 653649 -71460 623912 -41723
 (7) Greenland_Sea 569080 667067 -97988 604935 -35856
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1403737 1384371 19366 1026934 376804
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854931 853349 1582 851691 3240
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260887 1255554 5333 1240389 20498
 (11) Central_Arctic 3223020 3234756 -11736 3241074 -18054
 (12) Bering_Sea 819147 705446 113701 662863 156284
 (13) Baltic_Sea 36855 60091 -23235 129348 -92492
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 433109 826350 -393242 588167 -155058

The table shows that most regions are close to or above the 20-year average.  The majority of the 3% overall deficit is from Sea of Okhotsk, down ~400k km2,  Smaller deficits are in Barents and Greenland seas, partly offset by a surplus in Bering sea. All of those regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.

 

 

As for the March Monthly Averages, here is the history:

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

 

X-Weather Shattered Solar, Coal Undaunted

Drone footage shows hundreds of solar panels ripped apart and scattered across farmland after a powerful tornado tore through Wheatfield overnight. Homes in the area also suffered heavy damage as the violent storm carved a path of destruction. Photo credit Joemar Sombero

Energy Bad Boys draw the lessons from an Indiana tornado impacting power supply in their blog article Solar Scattered, Coal Still Standing. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

What an Indiana tornado revealed about the cost of fragile power

On Tuesday, March 10th, an EF-1 tornado destroyed the Dunns Bridge Solar I and II facilities owned by the Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO). The facilities, located outside of Wheatfield, Indiana, had 2.4 million solar panels, totaling 700 megawatts (MW) of power capacity, and reportedly cost $1 billion to construct—a little over $1,400 per kilowatt (kW).

The Chief Deputy of Jasper County Sheriff’s Department, Brandon Napier, noted, “Just the path of the tornado that came through, we have several large solar fields to the east of the town here it went right through the solar field and just ripped a lot of them out.”

While the solar panels were damaged by the tornado, we are not aware of any reports of damage at the nearby R.M. Schahfer Generating Station, a 950 MW coal facility that NIPSCO was planning to retire at the end of 2025. However, it is still running thanks to a 202(C) order issued by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requiring the plant to continue operations. Click on the map below to explore the custom Google Map we made this week of the facilities.

To enlarge, open in new tab.

This article will explore the cost of the destroyed solar facility compared to the nearby R.M. Schahfer Plant, and explore how energy costs have changed in the NIPSCO service territory in response to changes in the company’s generation fleet, using some cool data from S&P Global.

According to S&P Global, the Dunns Bridge solar projects were built to “support Northern Indiana Public Service’s goal of becoming coal-free by 2028, reducing carbon emissions by more than 90 percent by 2030, compared to a 2005 baseline, according to the utility.”

The situation begs several questions:

  • If climate change is going to make the weather more extreme, how does it make any sense to shut down coal plants and build energy generation facilities, like solar, that are destroyed by extreme weather?
  • Are the company’s coal-free and emissions reduction goals increasing the company’s exposure to costs associated with weather events, and why should ratepayers be saddled with these additional costs?
  • Was there any damage to the R.M. Schahfer coal plant or the onsite battery storage facility at Dunns Bridge?
  • What type of insurance policy is in place for the solar facility, and what deductible would the company be required to pay, if any?
  • What liability, if any, does the company have for the cleanup of the site and surrounding areas?
  • How is any of this in the best interests of ratepayers?

The Cost of Tornado-Truncated Solar Facility

Let’s be incredibly uncharitable and look at the anticipated levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the solar facility over its projected 25-year useful lifetime, and its actual, tornado-truncated lifetime.

Dunns Bridge I began generating power in June of 2023, producing a total of 1.3 million megawatt hours (MWh) up until December of 2025, the most recent month for which data are available. Dunns Bridge II began generating power in January of 2025, and through December, it produced 812,439 MW of power, which is good for a 21.3 percent capacity factor.

We calculated the LCOE over two time periods: a 25-year lifecycle, a standard assumption in the industry, and a 2-year lifecycle to account for the facility being destroyed very early in its lifecycle. The results are about what we would expect. Our estimated subsidized costs over 25 years are approximately equal to S&P Global’s reported PPA cost for the facilities, including subsidies.