To Be a Man, Or Not to Be (Fight Degendering)

This article is an update on the continuing assault by gender ideologues on young males’ masculinity.  Spencer Klavan writes at the American Mind Be a Man. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Gender theorists know what they are doing when they target children. We should know what we’re doing when we fight back.

 In August of 2018, the American Psychological Association issued its first-ever “Guidelines for Psychological Practice with Boys and Men,” of which the first directive is that psychologists should “strive to recognize that masculinities are constructed based on social, cultural, and contextual norms.” In other words, treatment of boys and men should begin from the premise that manhood is culturally contingent and therefore alterable. The goal of therapeutic practice then becomes “to help boys and men over their lifetimes navigate restrictive definitions of masculinity and create their own concepts of what it means to be male.”

Graduate programs in psychology cannot gain accreditation or train students for licensing without the APA’s official imprimatur. It stands to reason that schools will feel strongly encouraged, at the very least, to conform their instruction with what the Association dictates. Not that institutions of higher learning typically need such encouragement: at Stony Brook University in New York, for example, the Center for the Study of Men and Masculinities is dedicated to deconstructing “traditional” manhood. Their website offers resources such as an article on “academic efforts to decode men.” It is to these resources that one is directed via hyperlink if one attempts to access any discussion thread about manhood which has been deemed toxic by the major chat website, Reddit.

 

Professional ideologues, then, are making their best efforts to train biological males out of their natural impulses toward strength, endurance, physical courage, and emotional self-control.

Boys who find themselves lacking in these characteristics—as every young man does at some point in his development—typically experience a sense of inadequacy. Traditionally, caring adults have tried to alleviate that inadequacy by helping boys grow into themselves—by helping them attain the masculinity that is their birthright but not yet their achievement. The new diagnostic recommendation, however, is to treat all such feelings of self-reproach as needless impositions from an outmoded worldview in need of radical deconstruction.

What conservatives typically emphasize in response is that biological sex does matter, that men’s yearnings to be manly are indeed authentic and spontaneous. This is entirely true. But it misses something, something that Aristodemus knew: there is also a part of gender which is learned and taught. We experience certain natural ambitions, but then we build societies and traditions which honor and channel those ambitions. Most boys are born with an interest in fighting and competing, but no boy is born knowing how to play football or hold a gun. We school one another, generation to generation, in the ways of manhood.

Therefore if you train impressionable boys to disassociate themselves from their sex, they will indeed lose the sense of grounding and orientation that comes with proper instruction—they will indeed become “feminized” like the children of Cumae. That is why the efforts to degender our society are often focused on children. Public schools now teach gender theory using cartoon characters as diagrams. Little girls wearing male clothing were cheered on national television in October of this year at the Democrats’ “Equality Town Hall.” In the same month a seven-year-old boy was very nearly subjected by court order (subsequently amended) to hormonal alteration by a mother who encourages him to consider himself female. If it sounds alarmist to say that “gender theorists are coming for your children,” good. They are coming, and it is alarming.

 

The answer to this is not only to insist that “male” and “female” are real, natural categories: it is also to acknowledge that one natural component of those categories is aspiration. There is nothing harmful in exhorting a boy to “be a man.” If he is not yet—and no boy is—he will be told by activists and perhaps his teachers that he does not need to be. But the longings of his heart will tell him that he should, that he can. It is the business of gender theory to extinguish those longings. It should be our business to defend them at all costs.

Update: Climate Hail Mary by Broke Cities

Previous post is reprinted later on.  This update is an article at Issues and Insights last week by Horace Cooper The Shameless Hypocrisy Of Cities Suing For Climate Change ‘Damages’.   Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

North and South American natives once spoke of the mythical El Dorado, a sacred city made entirely of gold. History records that conquistadors embarked on expeditions throughout the Americas in pursuit of El Dorado and legendary riches. Ultimately their quests yielded nothing but misery and loss.

Conquistador Francisco Vázquez de Coronado went through Arizona seeking in vain untold golden treasures to make them all rich.

A modern-day parallel exists among several municipal governments and Rhode Island, which have set out on an equally unrealistic quest for a modern-day “jackpot justice” – a scheme to reap billions from several energy companies.

Using an already discredited “public nuisance” legal claim, Rhode Island and several cities have filed lawsuits that blame all of Earth’s climate change on a few profitable energy companies. The suits allege that, by producing oil, these energy companies have contributed to climate change, which, they argue, may cause damage to their communities in the future. Their cases, incidentally, fail to mention the large amounts of fossil fuels used by these same cities for public transportation, municipal airports, city buildings, and public improvement projects.

sierra-2018-11-internationalcarboncourt-wb

Litigants point to a July ruling in which an activist Rhode Island judge overturned a previous decision to move Rhode Island’s climate change case to federal court. Having watched federal courts dismiss many of these claims outright, the plaintiffs believe they have a better chance of success in lower, state courts. Baltimore was also successful in blocking a motion to move its lawsuit to federal court.

Still, climate litigants would be wise to keep the champagne firmly corked as these recent rulings in Rhode Island and Baltimore will likely be overturned. In North Dakota earlier this year, a similar nuisance case against Purdue Pharma was dismissed by a judge who found the plaintiffs failed to meet the required burden of proof. Moreover, the courts reviewing the Oklahoma case are likely to take a more skeptical view of the nuisance tactic, which has generally fared poorly on appeal. For example, a nuisance suit against lead paint manufacturers initially succeeded, only to fail on appeal in 2009, ironically before the Rhode Island Supreme Court.

A major driver of legal precedent denying the use of nuisance ordinances comes from an Obama-era Supreme Court ruling. In the 8-0 American Electric Power v. Connecticut decision in 2011, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that corporations cannot be sued for greenhouse gas emissions because the Clean Air Act specifically tasks the Environmental Protection Agency and Congress with the proper regulatory authority. Put another way, only the executive and legislative branches – not the judicial branch – may regulate and impose climate change policy. That precedent was properly cited last year when New York City’s climate lawsuit was bounced out of court. Also last year, a federal judge dismissed Oakland and San Francisco’s lawsuit for being outside the court’s authority.

In addition to the utter lack of legal substantiation, these lawsuits reveal how these municipalities are speaking out of both sides of their mouths. In one setting they downplay risks of climate change and in other settings they pretend the risks have never been higher.

Consider San Francisco’s 2017 municipal bond offering which reassuringly told potential investors, “The City is unable to predict whether sea-level rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm will occur, when they may occur, and if any such events occur, whether they will have a material adverse effect on the business operations or financial condition of the City and the local economy.” Yet in its multi-billion-dollar climate lawsuit, the city went full-on Chicken Little, warning, “Global warming-induced sea level rise is already causing flooding of low-lying areas of San Francisco.”

The example isn’t isolated. Marin County, California’s lawsuit alarmingly asserted that there’s a 99-percent risk of an epic climate-change-related flood by 2050. But a municipal bond offering to potential investors failed to warn of any potential climate change dangers claimed within its lawsuit. San Mateo County’s prospectus advising bond investors that it’s “unable to predict whether sea-level rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm will occur” didn’t stop it from forecasting a 93-percent chance cataclysmic flood by 2050 in its lawsuit against oil companies. The examples go on.

Aside from the shameless hypocrisy of mayors wooing potential investors while claiming pending climate disaster in court, the motivation behind these lawsuits is clear. Many cities filing lawsuits against energy companies are financial train wrecks, seeking billions to offset their mismanagement. Huge legal awards – enough to make their fiscal troubles vanish – have a powerful allure.

The prospect of jackpot justice has fogged their judgment just as surely as the conquistadors who vainly searched for El Dorado.

If anything, the mayors of Oakland, New York, San Diego, and others are seeking pots of Fool’s Gold. These greedy politicians should stop abusing the legal system, wasting taxpayer dollars, and put a halt to their fantasy gold-digging.

Previous Post:  Climate Hail Mary by Inept Cities

Some cities in desperate financial straits due to their own mismanagement are hoping to bail out by suing oil companies. Several are in California where the current governor blames droughts, fires and mudslides on climate change. So Governor Brown is a role model for all politicians how to scapegoat nature instead of taking responsibility for their own failings as leaders. As I have long said, COP stands not only for UN Conference of Parties, but also for the ultimate political COP-Out. (Note: A “Hail Mary” is a desperate football pass into the end zone as the game ends.)

A recent editorial in the Washington Times exposes the ruse Big talk at City Hall isn’t likely to replace oil, natural gas and coal Excerpts below with my bolds.

The civic shakedown of the oil and gas producers continues, and the frenzy has spread to California. Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York started it in January when he said he would seek billions of dollars in reparations from five major companies, including Exxon, BP and Chevron.

“It’s time for Big Oil to take responsibility for the devastation they have wrought,” he said, “and to start paying for the damage they have done.” He blames the devastation from the 2012 Superstorm Sandy on climate change, “a tragedy that was wrought by the actions of the fossil-fuel companies.” The Sierra Club and other radical environmental groups couldn’t have said it better. These greens have long sought to shut down the oil and coal-mining companies.

San Francisco, Oakland and Los Angeles now threaten similar lawsuits to extort money from the reliable producers of cheap energy. These cities claim that the forest fires and mudslides that devastated Southern California were caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Coal companies are now joining the mayor’s conspiracy. Forest fires in the West? Hurricanes in the East? Heaven forfend. Surely that never happened before.

Many big cities have been living beyond their means for years, running up billion dollar pension liabilities. Someone has to pay the tab for the fiscal hangover, and extortion may be the way to require others to pay the bills. What better target than Big Oil? Attempting extortion has got so out of hand that Richmond, Calif., one of whose largest employers is a large oil refinery, is eager to join the extortion racket.

Even if every American energy company shut down entirely — which may be the hidden agenda here — the enormous increase in carbon emissions from China and India alone would swamp the effects of American fossil-fuel production and consumption. If global warming was actually causing forest fires and hurricanes, Mayor de Blasio should be suing China, not British Petroleum.

Even more fraudulent is that New York City, Oakland, San Francisco and other plaintiffs have been burning fossil fuels for decades to provide power for their cities. Exxon only drills the oil. It’s the cities of New York, San Francisco and Oakland that burn it and send the carbon into the atmosphere. And what about the police cars, trucks, buses, ambulances and thousands of other city-owned vehicles? They use the fuels that Exxon and Chevron produce, and even the batteries in electric vehicles that must be frequently recharged use recharging stations powered mostly by fossil fuels. In the first six months of 2017 more than 70 percent of all the electricity produced in the United States came from coal and natural gas.

Fossil fuel starvation diets are available to all. But the mayors know very well that without cheap and abundant oil, coal and natural gas, their cities and the commerce that springs from there would come to a grinding halt. The schools, factories, shelters, shopping centers, restaurants, apartment buildings and skyscrapers would shut down without the energy from the oil and gas produced by the companies the mayors are suing. The cities wouldn’t survive for a day. Big talk, like oil, gas and coal, is cheap. It’s too bad that all that hot air at City Hall can’t be harnessed to produce electricity. If it could, there’s enough of it to put oil, gas and coal companies out of business.

 

Harnessing hot air for a useful purpose.

See also Is Global Warming A Public Nuisance?

New York Vs. Exxon Trial Hearings End

A legal summary of the proceedings comes from Seth Kerschner Laura Mulry article at White & Case
Trial Concludes for Exxon in New York Climate Change Investor Fraud Case. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Overview

In New York Supreme Court, Exxon was on trial for allegedly misleading investors about the business costs of climate change. The central allegation was that Exxon fraudulently used two distinct sets of metrics to calculate financial risks relating to climate change: one that was shared with investors and another that was used internally. New York State alleged that the practice exposed investors to greater risks than Exxon had disclosed and inflated the company’s value. Exxon maintained that it made accurate disclosures about the two cost metrics to investors, that the state was conflating the two metrics, and that there was no material impact to Exxon regardless of which metric it applies. The state is seeking between $476 million and $1.6 billion as the basis for a shareholder restitution fund, among other relief. The outcome of the case could have significant implications going forward on (i) how companies disclose and internally account for climate change risks and (ii) the outcomes of future climate change litigation.

(Left) New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood announced her office’s lawsuit against Exxon for climate fraud. October 24, 2018. (Right) Attorney General of New York, Letitia James took over January 6, 2019 and has also opened a civil investigation into President Donald Trump’s business dealings.

The bench trial commenced on October 22, 2019 and was the first lawsuit to go to trial in the United States that addresses how companies manage and disclose climate change-related risks. The New York Attorney General (NYAG) filed the civil lawsuit against Exxon Mobil Corporation (Exxon) in October 2018; it was the culmination of an investigation by NYAG that began in 2015. NYAG alleged statutory and common law securities fraud claims, however, in its closing remarks on November 7, 2019, NYAG dropped two of the four fraud claims. NYAG’s remaining claims include alleged violations of the state’s Martin Act, one of the strictest anti-fraud laws in the country that does not require an intent to defraud or knowledge of fraud for there to be a violation of the law, and a persistent fraud claim. NYAG requests injunctive relief, damages, disgorgement of all amounts gained as a result of the alleged fraud, and restitution.

NYAG asserted that Exxon engaged in a “longstanding fraudulent scheme” to deceive investors by providing misleading statements that (i) Exxon was effectively managing risks posed by regulations to address climate change, such as carbon taxes, and (ii) such regulations did not pose a significant risk to the company. NYAG asserted that Exxon’s internal practices were inconsistent with these statements, were undisclosed to investors, and exposed the company to greater risk from climate change regulation than investors were led to believe.

According to the NYAG complaint, Exxon used internal climate change cost projections that differed from publicly-disclosed projections and are in alleged violation of US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Exxon claimed NYAG is trying to show a false discrepancy by conflating two cost projections that serve different purposes. NYAG claimed that Exxon provided misleading statements to investors in reports that Exxon drafted in response to shareholder proposals and resolutions requesting information about climate change-related risks, its 2015 Corporate Citizen Report, and in its 2014 and 2016 proxy statements, among other public documents. NYAG asserted that Exxon’s alleged climate cost misrepresentations are material to the company’s investors, who include public pension funds in New York and around the United States that hold billions of dollars of Exxon stock.

To account for the impact of future climate change regulations, Exxon stated that it “rigorously and consistently” applied an escalating proxy cost of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (together, GHGs) to its business, according to NYAG’s complaint. NYAG claimed, however, that Exxon’s GHG proxy cost representations were materially false and misleading because Exxon did not in fact apply the GHG proxy cost it represented to investors in its business decisions. NYAG claimed that, in projecting its future costs for purposes of making investment decisions, conducting business planning, and assessing oil and gas reserves, Exxon applied either (i) an undisclosed, lower set of GHG proxy costs in its internal corporate guidance, (ii) an even-lower cost based on existing climate regulations that held flat for decades into the future or (iii) no GHG-related costs at all. Exxon maintained that it made accurate disclosures about the two cost metrics to investors and claimed that NYAG is manipulating the content of such disclosures to make it appear as though Exxon misled the public.

The linchpin of the case may rest on whether Exxon conflated two distinct climate change cost projections. Exxon’s publicly-disclosed GHG proxy cost assumed carbon costs would be significantly higher than the internal GHG cost estimate. Exxon did not dispute that it used two distinct projections for the future impacts of climate regulations and argued that each had a legitimate business purpose: the publicly-disclosed GHG proxy cost was used to project global energy demand (and future prices) and the GHG cost was a proprietary internal number used to evaluate investment opportunities. Exxon representatives, including former Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson, testified that Exxon’s publicly-disclosed GHG proxy cost represented a “macro level” assessment of climate change mitigation policies that Exxon expects to see adopted around the world, from fuel efficiency standards in the United States to carbon taxes in Europe, and was used in a data guide used by the company. Exxon’s position is that the different, lower GHG costs that Exxon used internally represented “micro level” direct costs and capital projects at specific Exxon facilities and were informed by a more limited set of regulations applicable to specific projects. Exxon has contended in court that the publicly-disclosed GHG proxy cost, which is a purported demand-side estimate of how future regulations, like a carbon tax, would depress global demand for oil, is only one part of its climate cost calculations. NYAG argued that Exxon obfuscated differences in the two accounting projections and a reasonable investor had every reason to believe that Exxon was using the two sets of costs interchangeably.

Exxon maintains that there was and would be no impact on its value or finances, including corporate earnings, regardless of whether it applied a higher or lower GHG cost estimate. Exxon asserted that NYAG failed to identify a specific oil or gas project investment decision that would have been swayed by applying the higher GHG proxy cost and that the practice of having two distinct cost metrics had no impact on how investors assessed the company.

Richard Auter, the head of the Exxon audit team at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), testified that (i) he was not aware of any attempt by Exxon to conceal or manipulate the two cost metrics and (ii) GHG proxy costs do not have a material impact on Exxon’s financial health. Mr. Auter stated that the publicly-disclosed GHG proxy costs “were part of management’s planning and budgeting process, but they do not reflect real costs in many situations.”

NYAG claimed that Exxon’s failure to employ the publicly-disclosed GHG proxy costs was most prevalent in its projections for investments with high GHG emissions. Applying the publicly-disclosed GHG proxy costs to these investments would have had a particularly significant negative impact on the company’s economic and financial projections and assessments, according to NYAG. NYAG alleged that using the lower cost estimate for future GHG costs made projects with high GHG emissions look more attractive than those projects would have looked if the higher GHG proxy cost were applied. NYAG stated that Exxon chose not to use the higher, publicly-disclosed GHG proxy costs in connection with 14 oil sands projects in Canada, which allegedly resulted in understating costs in the company’s cash flow projections by more than $25 billion. Bitumen from oil sands is harder to extract and then must be upgraded into synthetic crudes, so the extraction process from oil sands projects typically emits higher GHG emissions than other oil and gas upstream operations. NYAG claimed that, while corporate estimates projected GHG prices continuing to rise up to $80 per ton in 2040, Exxon planners in Canada applied a cost estimate that held flat at $24 per ton through to the end of the assets’ projected life (decades into the future) and didn’t apply to all of the assets’ GHG emissions.

Throughout the three-year probe and trial, NYAG claimed that Exxon senior management sanctioned the alleged fraudulent conduct, including Mr. Tillerson. NYAG stated that Mr. Tillerson knew for years that the company’s GHG proxy cost representations were misleading, but allowed the gap between the two cost metrics to persist. NYAG alleged that, in May 2014, Exxon’s corporate greenhouse gas manager gave a presentation to the company’s senior management, including Mr. Tillerson, that warned that the way the company had been accounting for climate risks was misleading and recommended aligning the cost metrics in evaluating investments. NYAG asserted that, after Exxon revised its internal guidance, Exxon’s planners realized that applying the increased GHG proxy cost figures would result in severe consequences to its economic and financial projections, such as “massive GHG costs” and “large write-downs” (i.e., reductions in estimated volume) of company reserves. NYAG claimed that, when confronted with the negative impacts from applying GHG proxy costs in a manner consistent with the company’s representations to investors, Exxon’s management directed the company’s planners to adopt what an Exxon employee allegedly called an “alternate methodology.” NYAG claimed that Exxon then applied only the existing GHG-related costs presently imposed by governments (i.e., legislated costs) and assumed that those existing costs would remain in effect indefinitely into the future, contrary to the company’s repeated representations to investors that it expects governments to impose increasingly stringent climate regulations in the future. By applying this “alternate methodology,” NYAG alleged that Exxon (i) avoided the significant write-downs it would have incurred had it abided by its stated risk management practices and (ii) failed to take into account significant GHG costs resulting from expected climate change regulation.

Climate Activists storm the bastion of Exxon Mobil, here seen without their shareholder disguises.

Exxon’s counsel argued that certain of NYAG’s key Exxon investor witnesses are politically-motivated and bought the company’s stock with the sole purpose to lobby the company on climate change issues. Exxon noted that one such investor, the New York City comptroller’s office, supports efforts to divest from fossil fuels.

In its closing remarks, NYAG abruptly dropped its common law fraud and equitable fraud claims. Exxon’s counsel responded that NYAG dropped the claims for strategic purposes before the judge could rule against them due to a lack of evidence and indicated that the two dropped claims caused severe reputational harm to the company and its executives, including Mr. Tillerson in particular. Exxon’s counsel stated that Exxon and its officials deserved a ruling to clear their reputations. The court dismissed the two claims with prejudice and invited Exxon’s counsel to submit post-trial briefing on whether Exxon had a right to a stipulation stating that NYAG lacked evidence to prove the dismissed fraud claims at trial.

Exxon and other energy companies are also the subject of other climate change lawsuits brought by (i) local and state governments seeking damages to help pay for the costs imposed by rising seas and extreme weather caused by climate change and (ii) children and non-profit organizations that claim that the federal and state governments are responsible for preventing and addressing the consequences of climate change. [For more information on climate change litigation see links at end.]

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts Attorney General commenced an investigation of Exxon in 2015 similar to that of NYAG’s and filed a lawsuit against Exxon on October 24, 2019 for alleged violations of Massachusetts’ investor and consumer protection laws relating to the company’s climate change-related disclosure and advertising. Exxon has fought the New York and Massachusetts investigations in courtrooms. In a New York federal court, a judge earlier this year rejected Exxon’s plea to block the dual investigations. Exxon has argued that the states’ attorneys general were violating Exxon’s First Amendment right to free speech relating to climate change. Exxon has asserted that the claims are politically-motivated, targeting energy companies to be held accountable for climate change.

The three-week bench trial in New York began on October 22, 2019 and the parties have until November 18, 2019 to file post-trial submissions. The presiding Justice Barry Ostrager has said that he will issue a ruling within 30 days after such submission deadline, with a verdict expected sometime in mid-December. NYAG requested that the court (i) enjoin Exxon from violating New York law, (ii) direct a comprehensive review of Exxon’s failure to apply a proxy cost consistent with its representations and the economic and financial consequences of that failure, (iii) award damages caused, directly or indirectly, by the fraudulent and deceptive acts, (iv) award disgorgement of all amounts obtained in connection with the alleged violations of law and all amounts by which Exxon has been unjustly enriched, (v) award restitution of all funds obtained from investors in connection with or as a result of the alleged fraudulent and deceptive acts, and (vi) award the state its costs and fees, including attorney’s fees.

The decision reached in this case is likely to be cited in future climate change litigation. If Exxon prevails, litigation over companies’ climate change-related disclosure could wane.

Companies should be on alert that they could be scrutinized by shareholders, governmental officials, and the public for how they disclose and internally account for climate change-related risks. It may be prudent for companies to align publicly-disclosed climate-related metrics and methodologies with their internal climate-related risk management and accounting practices. At a minimum, companies should ensure that their public disclosure is not misleading and consider any appropriate disclosure on internal climate-related metrics used in business decisions or in the preparation of publicly-disclosed financial information.

The case is People of the State of New York v. ExxonMobil Corp., case number 452044/2018, in the Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York. NYAG’s October 24, 2018 complaint can be found here. Exxon’s October 7, 2019 pre-trial memorandum can be found here.

Click here to download PDF.

Background:  Inside “Blame Big Oil” Litigation

Legal Calamity: Climate Nuisance Lawsuits

Critical Climate Intelligence for Jurists (and others)

 

Energy is Life

cavemen not right

From the earliest days of human life, we have always known that our lives depend on the energy we can gain and apply to meet our needs.  It is obvious around the world that in places where energy is scarce and expensive, human labor is cheap and people live in poverty.  Where energy is cheap and available, people earn a much higher standard of living.  These realities have escaped the notice of today’s policymakers, obsessed with their fear of CO2.   Derrick Hollie writes at Real Clear Energy ‘Affordable and Reliable’ Energy Makes Life Possible. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

In the United States, we have an abundance of affordable and reliable energy. But some of us take having access to energy for granted. We expect to plug in and charge our mobile devices, flip a light switch and click on the television. And without fail, it all works. It’s not until our power—and our way of life—is interrupted that most of us think about energy and where it comes from.

California’s recent blackout revealed that having reliable electricity is an economic privilege, and interviews from across the state suggest those less affluent continue to have more losses and were disproportionately forced off the grid.

As it is, Californians already pay among the highest rates in the U.S. for their power, and unfortunately these costs are projected to rise even more. These increases often have a higher burden on low-income households that already struggle to keep up with rising cost, leading many down the path to energy poverty. The issue plagues not only California residents, but many more across the country including in Pennsylvania, where utility rates for customers are much higher than neighboring states. In Georgia a study finds energy consumption among the highest in America, and in New Mexico a new state law will increase cost to consumers, with the most negative impacts felt by lower income families who spend a larger share of their monthly income on energy.

The irony is that each state listed has an abundance of natural resources that can be accessed. But lawmakers, caving to environmentalist and special interest groups that don’t speak for the poor, continue to put forth expensive policy ideas like the Green New Deal that promote false hope and unrealistic outcomes for those who already grapple each month to make ends meet.

I recently had an opportunity to speak with several residents of Richmond, Virginia, who face these challenges. And it breaks my heart to see a single mother who must decide on whether to feed her children or pay the electric bill. That’s a choice no American citizens should have to make.

Today we use more energy than ever before, and to keep up with the growing demand, we need an approach that makes better use of what we have, especially if it can lower costs, create jobs and increase funding to critical services we rely on like roads, emergency management, and education.

A recent Shale Crescent USA study shows end users have saved $1.1 trillion over the past 10 years due to increased natural gas production that has reduced the price of natural gas in the United States. Meanwhile California, rich with its own natural resources, increased its crude oil imports from foreign countries from 5% in 1992 to 57% in 2018. This is a glaring example of hypocrisy, and here’s why. Booming shale production helped the U.S. overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s top oil exporter for the first time ever this year. How can our natural resources be worthy enough to supply other countries, but not good enough for us here at home?

We need market-oriented energy policy that will allow America to keep exploring and developing our resources safely, and to follow the example of environmental stewardship set by areas like Port Fourchon, Louisiana. The port serves as a major oil and gas hub on the Gulf Coast with some of the largest boat and marine companies in the world operating from there. It’s also a commercial and fishing Mecca that continues to amaze scientists and researchers from around the world.

During the California blackout, many residents were not able to cook and relied on flashlights and oil-burning lamps for lighting. San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo urged residents to be “safe and not to drive in blacked-out areas.” We live in the 21st Century in the richest country in the world, and nobody here should be without electricity. Affordable energy makes us better and more resilient.

And the truth is, nature doesn’t give us what we need to survive—we must create it through energy development. Fossil fuels have allowed us to create a life that Americans have grown to appreciate, thanks to innovations from pharmaceuticals to agriculture to mobile devices.

We are better off now than ever before, and politicians shouldn’t deny our comfort and prosperity to the least fortunate among us.

 

See also Social Benefits of Carbon

Ungrateful Millennials Richer than Rockefeller

 

October Ocean Air Temps Cooling, Land to Follow

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With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea.  UAH has updated their tlt (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for October.  Previously I have done posts on their reading of ocean air temps as a prelude to updated records from HADSST3. This month also has a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years.

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

After a technical enhancement to HadSST3 delayed March and April updates, May was posted early in June, hopefully a signal the future months will also appear more promptly.  For comparison we can look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6 which are now posted for October. The September data had appeared questionable, but UAH has now validated those numbers. The temperature record is derived from microwave sounding units (MSU) on board satellites like the one pictured above. Recently there was a change in UAH processing of satellite drift corrections, including dropping one platform which can no longer be corrected. The graphs below are taken from the new and current dataset.

The UAH dataset includes temperature results for air above the oceans, and thus should be most comparable to the SSTs. There is the additional feature that ocean air temps avoid Urban Heat Islands (UHI).  The graph below shows monthly anomalies for ocean temps since January 2015.After a June rise in ocean air temps, all regions dropped back down to May levels in July and August.  A spike occured in September, which has now been erased by plummeting ocean air temps in the Tropics and SH. NH ocean air also cooled slightly, but the Global drop was driven by the much greater SH ocean area.

Land Air Temperatures Tracking Downward in Seesaw Pattern

We sometimes overlook that in climate temperature records, while the oceans are measured directly with SSTs, land temps are measured only indirectly.  The land temperature records at surface stations sample air temps at 2 meters above ground.  UAH gives tlt anomalies for air over land separately from ocean air temps.  The graph updated for October is below.
Here we have freash evidence of the greater volatility of the Land temperatures, along with an extraordinary departure by SH land.  Despite the small amount of SH land, it spiked in July, then dropped in August so sharply along with the Tropics that it pulled the global average downward against slight warming in NH.  Now the last two months NH has risen to match SH, while the Tropics dropped (very small land area),  The overall pattern shows global land temps tend to follow NH temps, except for this recent rise led by SH.

The longer term picture from UAH is a return to the mean for the period starting with 1995:

TLTs include mixing above the oceans and probably some influence from nearby more volatile land temps.  Clearly NH and Global land temps have been dropping in a seesaw pattern, more than 1C lower than the 2016 peak, prior to these last 2 months. TLT measures started the recent cooling later than SSTs from HadSST3, but are now showing the same pattern.  It seems obvious that despite the three El Ninos, their warming has not persisted, and without them it would probably have cooled since 1995.  Of course, the future has not yet been written.

High Stakes Impeachment Poker

Charles Lipson is a respected U. of Chicago political scientist who writes disapassionately and insightfully about the zero sum impeachment game under way in Washingston DC. He provides multiple perspectives in his article published at Real Clear Politics: The Democrats’ High-Risk Gamble on Impeachment. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and images.

Democrats and Deep State Are All In

The Democrats’ activist base considers Donald Trump fundamentally unfit to hold office. Their impeachment drive is really about this damning judgment, not about any specific act such as withholding Ukrainian aid or wanting to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. They say Trump is erratic, narcissistic, self-serving, and unforgivably gauche. He cozies up to dictators and would like to become one himself. Every day, he tramples the presidency’s historic norms. Surely the voters who put him there made a catastrophic error, or, rather, the antiquated Electoral College did. In short, Trump is not just a bad president — the worst in modern history — he is an illegitimate and dangerous one, at home and abroad.

Their harsh view is no masquerade. It is sincere, deeply held, and shared by most elected Democrats. Many, perhaps most, career civil servants agree and consider the president only nominally their boss. That’s why they consider it their constitutional duty to hold him in check. That’s why former heads of the CIA openly praised the “Deep State,” why former FBI Director James Comey wanted his agents to monitor the president in the White House itself. If that means targeting Trump and his key aides for disguised FBI interviews or leaking classified phone calls, so be it. The fight over the Deep State is partly about this profound distrust of Trump (and his distrust of them) and partly about the president’s rising opposition to a century of progressive legislation, executive orders, and court decisions, which grant extensive power to government bureaucrats.

This revulsion is the backdrop to the Democrats’ impeachment effort and the earlier appointment of a special counsel. The crucial point is this: Democrats see the actions they have investigated for three years less as specific crimes and more as steadily accumulating evidence of Trump’s unfitness for office and his repeated violation of his oath, as they understand it. “Democrats of all stripes look at Donald Trump’s business and personal history and see a man who serially does not follow laws and therefore should not be president,” said one well-informed Democrat. For his party, “Ukraine is a big deal because it confirms this view.”

Pelosi Is Playing Several Angles

Although House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shares those sentiments, she is too shrewd, too experienced to be carried away by her party’s most rabid voices. She is also too vulnerable to ignore them. The loudest voices come from deep-blue districts, but she needs to win purple ones, too, to keep her majority. That’s why impeachment has twin goals: to appease the party’s activist base (in Congress and the primaries) and to win the general election by damaging Trump and his Republican allies.

There are other possible goals. One is to sink moderate Senate Republicans in close 2020 races, which could flip control if Democrats win in Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina and hold onto other seats. Another is keeping Joe Biden’s rivals, particularly Sen. Elizabeth Warren, frozen in Washington for a Senate trial during the early primaries. National Democrats, led by Pelosi, are deeply worried that Warren, if she is the nominee, will not only lose the presidency but cost them heavily down the ballot. A third is to distract from Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s upcoming report on possible surveillance abuse by senior Obama appointees.

Still, Pelosi’s highest priorities are retaining her position as speaker and, if possible, retaking the White House. Only then would winning the Senate give the Democrats true governing power.

Enormous Downside Risk

The downside of this impeachment gamble is painfully obvious. Without substantially more evidence against Trump, Democrats cannot win overwhelming public support and, without that, they won’t come close to the two-thirds vote in the Senate needed to remove the president. If the upper chamber doesn’t convict, voters are bound to ask why Democrats have spent the past four years on this fruitless quest and neglected their other duties. What legislative accomplishments can they highlight for voters next November? Hardly any. Only a big sign saying “The Resistance.”

How well is this gamble going? Still too early to tell. Recent polls show about half the country now favors impeachment and removal, but, significantly, the president’s numbers are about 10 percentage points better in vital swing states. Rank-and-file Republicans and their officeholders are still solidly behind the president. The big unknown is what effect public hearings and a Senate trial will have.

To remove a president, the Democrats need strong bipartisan support, both among voters and in Congress. They don’t have it. One big problem is that so many Democrats and their media allies have cried “wolf” before. Indeed, they have cried it continually since Trump was elected. The second problem is House Democrats have conducted the inquiry behind closed doors and withheld the transcripts for weeks (only now, under pressure, are they beginning to release them). They’ve made up the rules as they go, refusing to let Republicans call witnesses, refusing to let the president’s lawyers ask questions or even observe the process. Why? No good answers have been provided, nor for why the investigation is being held in a secure room by the Intelligence Committee. Hiding it in the basement is a sad metaphor for what should be a public process. After all, the materials are not classified, and the Judiciary Committee has handled every previous impeachment. The more partisan the process, the less bipartisan and legitimate the outcome.

Republicans See A Rigged Witch Hunt in Process

To Republicans, the impeachment drive looks less like a somber, quasi-judicial proceeding and more like something concocted by Dean Wormer to expel John Belushi’s “Bluto” Blutarsky and Delta House from Faber College. The House rules are ad hoc inventions. The secret hearings, scheduled by Chairman Adam Schiff, can continue as long as he wants, calling only his witnesses. He will then write a report, saying the evidence was appalling and unrefuted, and hand everything over to the Judiciary Committee to conduct public hearings. If Chairman Jerrold Nadler’s previous hearings are any guide, they will quickly descend into an ugly street brawl.

It’s not hard for Republicans to attack this whole process as fundamentally unfair. They say, rightly, that it violates the most basic tenets of Anglo-Saxon jurisprudence:

    • Accusations must be specific and backed by clear evidence;
    • All evidence and accusations must be presented in open court;
    • Rules of procedure must be fixed and unbiased, not arbitrary and ad hoc;
    • The accused is presumed innocent and must be given full rights to see all the evidence, confront the accusers, and rebut all charges, including cross-examining witnesses, challenging documents, and presenting exculpatory evidence.

None of these rules has applied to this impeachment inquiry, at least not yet.

Although impeachment is a political act, it is still governed by the constitutional requirement limiting it to “high crimes and misdemeanors,” such as treason and bribery. The Framers specifically rejected a proposal to include “malfeasance in office,” fearing it would open the process to vague charges and transform our system of divided powers into a unified parliamentary system, controlled by Congress.

White House Has to Play Both Short and Long Game

The White House cannot expect to win this battle solely by condemning it as unfair. It must ultimately frame a persuasive, substantive rebuttal to the charges leaking out of Schiff’s committee. That means convincing the public the president is innocent or, as Bill Clinton did, convincing them the charges are not serious enough to overturn an election. Trump can also say the election is so near that we should let voters decide for themselves.

For the moment, however, the White House is wise to concentrate on the unfair process. The public can assess whether those leading the inquiry are even-handed or hell-bent to remove the president. Are they giving him and his supporters a fair chance to present their side? Americans understand these basic rules. We treasure them as bulwarks of our democratic freedom. The House majority breaks them at its peril.

See also post Conrad Black: Trump is Holding the Cards

Let Them Eat Steak!

Will Coggin writes at USA Today Let them eat steak: Hold the shame, Red meat is not bad for you or the climate.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and images.

Plant-based meat may enjoy the perception of being healthier than real meat, but it has more sodium and calories and can cause weight gain.

Imagine ordering dinner at your favorite restaurant. You know what you want without hesitation: a perfectly marbled 8-ounce steak cooked medium rare. Just before you order, your date tells you they’ve read that cows cause climate change and that meat might be unhealthy. Suddenly, the Caesar salad seems like a better option.

We’ve all been steak-shamed before. Ever since Sen. George McGovern’s 1977 Dietary Goals report declared red meat a health villain, Americans have been chided out of eating red meat. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, red meat consumption has fallen more than 24% since 1976. During that time, study after study has attempted to tie red meat to a laundry list of health problems. Until now.

So many studies, so many flaws

Three studies published recently in the Annals of Internal Medicine did something too few papers do: Ask whether the previous studies had any meat on their bones. The researchers who wrote the report analyzed 61 past studies consisting of over 4 million participants to see whether red meat affected the risk of developing heart disease and cancer.

 

All three came to the same conclusion: Decreasing red meat consumption had little to no effect on reducing risk of heart disease, cancer or stroke.

How can so many studies be wrong?

Nutritional research often relies on survey-based observational studies. These track groups of people and the food they eat, or try to tie a person’s past eating habits to a person’s current state of health. The result is something akin to a crime chart from a mob movie with a random red string connecting random suspects trying to figure out “who dunnit.”

Observational studies rely on participants to recall past meals, sometimes as far back as a month. Even when eating habits are tracked in real time using food diaries, issues arise. Research has shown that participants don’t give honest answers and often pad food diaries with typically “good” foods like vegetables while leaving out things like meat, sweets and alcohol. There’s also the matter of having to accurately report portion sizes and knowing the ingredients of the food eaten in restaurants.

Beef may be healthier than fake meat

The room for error is huge. A much better form of study would be to lock people in cells for a period of time so that you could precisely control what they ate and did and then measure outcomes. Obviously, there are ethical issues with such a structure, which is why observational studies are more common, if flawed.

Some companies like Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat have tried to cash in on the misconception about meat’s healthfulness. According to the market research firm Mintel, 46% of Americans believe that plant-based meat is better for you than real meat. Ironically, the anti-meat messages could be leading people to less healthful options.

Science on your side: Don’t let vegetarian environmentalists shame you on meat

Plant-based meat might enjoy the perception of being healthier, but that perception is far from reality. A lean beef burger has an average of nearly 20% fewer calories and 80% less sodium than the two most popularfake-meat burgers, the Impossible Burger and the Beyond Burger.

Fake meat is also an “ultra-processed” food, filled with unpronounceable ingredients. The National Institutes of Health released a study in May finding that ultra-processed foods cause weight gain. Unlike observational studies, this research was a controlled, randomized study.

Earth will survive your meat-eating

It’s not just the flawed health claims about red meat that deserve a second look. In recent years, we’ve been told reducing meat consumption is essential to saving the planet. But despite what critics say, even if everyone in America went vegan overnight, total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the United States would only be reduced 2.6%.

Eat better meat:Don’t go vegan to save the planet. You can help by being a better meat-eater.

Since the early 1960s, America has shrank GHG emissions from livestock by 11.3% while doubling the production of animal farming. Meat production is a relatively minor contributor to our overall GHG levels. In other countries, it may have a higher impact. The solution is not lecturing everyone else to go meat-free. Sharing our advancements would prove to be a more likely and efficient way to reduce emissions than cutting out meat or replacing it with an ultra-processed analogue.

Those who enjoy a good steak now have a good retort the next time they’re criticized for their choice: Don’t have a cow.

Peak Oil Denier Takes A Victory Lap

View of Oil Well Pumpjack (Horsehead) at Sunset Oil Industry GETTY

Michael Lynch writes at Forbes The Peak Oil Denier Takes A Victory Lap. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Monday’s New York Times includes a story titled “Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming,” which (presumably unintentionally) mimics the title of my 2016 book, “The Peak Oil Scare and the Coming Oil Flood.” Which provides a good reason to look back at the debate and some of the arguments countering my own.

Although I have spent decades writing about oil supply and the tendency of forecasters to be too pessimistic (see references at end of column), for many it was my 2009 New York Times op-ed, which the paper titled “Peak Oil is a Waste of Energy,” that brought attention to my heretical views. And unleashed a heap of opprobrium. Of course, the usual suspects weighed in, such as writers on peak oil websites, such as theoildrum.com, resilience.org, resourceinsights.com, and peakoilmatters.com. It is safe to say they disagreed strongly, often in language unprintable here.

Hubbert 1956 prediction vs US Oil Production.

But beyond the circle of peak oil advocates, many others felt compelled to comment. For various reasons, peak oil became a darling of liberals, with two pieces on The Huffington Post including an offered wager (later withdrawn), essentially unskeptically quoting various sources that disagreed with me. Paul Krugman referred to the high oil prices of 2008 as a “nonbubble” and attributable to “the growing difficulty of finding oil and the rapid growth of emerging economies like China.” Josh Harkinson of Mother Jones relied on peak oil advocates for their critcism of my work, including a misrepresentation of a 1996 oil supply forecast, where I had proved prescient but the peak oilers claimed the forecast was of crude oil rather than petroleum liquids, thereby underestimating 2010 production by about 10 million barrels a day.

Other media published criticism of my op-ed, such as businessinsider.com, which posted an article by a peak oil advocate, that referred to my op-ed as a “screed” and “virtually fact-free,” while including mistakes such as “his belief that the world will somehow achieve a recovery rate of 35%,” without knowing that 35% is the present recovery rate. The New Republic’s Jesse Zwick noted various facts that he believed disproved my thesis, such as that “output at many fields is declining, while global demand is rising fast, outstripping the pace of new discoveries.” Of course, output at most fields is always declining and, as my op-ed noted, estimated discoveries hadn’t kept pace with demand only because the initial estimates are very conservative.

Interestingly, both The New York Times and The Economist published on-line comments questioning my arguments, albeit much more mildly than other critics. Jad Mouawad noted the then-high prices and admitted that oil’s goodbye might be long, while an anonymous commenter on The Economist’s webpage admitted , “I have my doubts.”

What is often amazing is that the arguments made against me were generally either false or irrelevant.

Several mentioned that oil fields are declining, which has been true throughout the history of the industry. A number of others cited the alarming (to them) fact that “Steep falls in oil production means the world now needed to replace an amount of oil output equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s production every two years, Merrill Lynch said in a research report.” They didn’t seem to be aware that Jimmy Carter, in 1977, said, “…just to stay even we need the production of a new Texas every year, an Alaskan North Slope every nine months, or a new Saudi Arabia every three years. Obviously, this cannot continue.” (Obviously, it did.)
While the responsible media like the New York Times and The Economist admitted to uncertainty–which given the complexity of the issue, was sensible—others cited the “irrefutable fact that oil resources are finite and declining” apparently unaware that oil is renewable, generated from organic material by geophysical processes, albeit very slowly.

Certainty in such cases should always generate skepticism.

Which highlights the degree to which the peak oil debate was dominated by non-experts, who read that people they assumed to be expert had predicted an imminent peak in oil production and accepted it as true because they wanted it to be, without being aware of the long history of pessimism about future oil production. But the arguments will always have great appeal to those who dislike consumerism, those worried about the environment, and even those in the industry who like the idea that future prices must certainly be higher.

To see that such mistaken views have real-world consequences one only need know that in the 1970s, many governments encouraged the burning of coal for power instead of natural gas, falsely believing that gas was scarce, while more recently, others have argued that peak oil would limit our greenhouse gas emissions. And it’s debates like these, where so many are so certain without expertise or knowledge of the subject, and agitate for often-costly policies to cope with their assumed crisis, that makes the public skeptical of warnings about our imminent doom.

 

Eurasian Arctic Flash Freezing in October

The image is an animation of MASIE ice charts over the last two weeks.  Upper right is Kara Sea icing, upper center is Laptev freezing over, and upper left is East Siberian filling with ice.  Chukchi on the left is still mostly water, and along with Beaufort Sea the main reason 2019 NH ice extent remains below average at this time.

MASIE daily results for October show 2019 recovering slowly early on, then adding ice faster the second half of the month.
Note that Arctic ice recovers strongly in October going on average (2007 through 2018 inclusive) from 5M km2 to 8.6 M km2.  2019 was as much as 1.3M km2 below average mid-October, before ending the month 654k km2 down..The graph shows 2018 and 2007 matching with 2019 converging as of October 31.  SII and MASIE show the same average for the month with SII about 170k km2 lower at the end.

The table for day 304 shows distribution of ice across the regions making up the Arctic ocean.

Region 2019304 Day 304 Average 2019-Ave. 2007304 2019-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 7873831 8527820 -653989 8175072 -301241
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 700342 956166 -255824 1038126 -337784
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 169401 471301 -301900 242685 -73284
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 959948 949415 10532 835071 124876
 (4) Laptev_Sea 795682 879595 -83913 887789 -92107
 (5) Kara_Sea 568308 462083 106225 311960 256348
 (6) Barents_Sea 165838 79203 86635 52823 113015
 (7) Greenland_Sea 430074 403101 26973 443559 -13485
 (8)Baffin_Bay_Gulf_St._Lawrence 120175 277951 -157775 289374 -169198
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 727405 785367 -57963 817220 -89816
 (10) Hudson_Bay 3816 82445 -78629 48845 -45029
 (11) Central_Arctic 3222143 3169720 52423 3206345 15798

Presently 2019 ice extent according to MASIE is 654k km2 (8%) below the 12 year average and 301k km2 less than 2007. Most of the deficit to average is in the Pacific seas of Beaufort and Chukchi. along with Baffin and Hudson Bays refreezing slowly this year.  Other places are close to normal, with Central Arctic higher than average and much greater than 2007.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.

Why People Are So Unreasonable These Days

For some reason, many intellectuals who identify as philosophical skeptics embrace large chunks of climate dogma without critical examination. Steven Pinker is part of the progressive clan, and shares their blind spot, but speaks wisely in a recent article about the precarious balance between reason and intolerance these days. Some excerpts in italics with my bolds show his keen grasp of many aspects of the problems in contemporary discourse, even while he nods superficially to the climate consensus.  His article at Skeptic.com is Why We Are Not Living in a Post-Truth Era:  An (Unnecessary) Defense of Reason and a (Necessary) Defense of Universities’ Role in Advancing it.

Humans Are Rational Beings

In the first part Pinker does a good job clearing away several arguments that humans are not primarily rational anyway.  For example, he summarizes:

So if anyone tries to excuse irrationality and dogma by pointing a finger at our evolutionary origins, I say: Don’t blame the hunter-gatherers. Rational inference, skepticism, and debate are in our nature every bit as much as freezing in response to a rustle in the grass.

Why were truth and rationality selected for? The answer is that reality is a powerful selection pressure. As the science fiction author Philip K. Dick put it, “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.”  Either there is an armadillo in the burrow or there isn’t. Those who were so hidebound by stereotype or habit that they could not deduce out where it was or how to kill it went hungry.

Irrationality Contends Against Reason

Pinker provides insight into the modern struggle to be reasonable in the face of irrationality.

So if we do have the capacity to be rational, why are we so often irrational? There are several reasons. The most obvious was pointed out by Herbert Simon, one of the founders of both cognitive psychology and artificial intelligence: rationality must be bounded. A perfect reasoner would require all the time in the world, and unlimited memory. So we often satisfice, trading accuracy for efficiency.

Also, though reality is always a powerful selection pressure, we did not evolve with the truth-augmenting technologies that have been invented in recent millennia and centuries, such as writing, quantitative datasets, scientific methodology, and specialized expertise.

And annoyingly, facts and logic can compromise our self-presentation as effective and benevolent, a powerful human motive. We all try to come across as infallible, omniscient, and saintly. Rationality can be a nuisance in this campaign, because inconvenient truths will inevitably come to light that suggest we are mere mortals. The dismissal of facts and logic is often damage control against threats to our self-presentation.

Beliefs also can be signals of loyalty to a coalition. As Tooby has pointed out, the more improbable the belief, the more credible the signal. It’s hard to affirm your solidarity with the tribe by declaring that rocks fall down instead of up, because anyone can say that rocks fall down instead of up. But if you say that God is three persons in one, or that Hillary Clinton ran a child sex ring out of a Washington pizzeria, you’ve shown that you’re willing to take risks for the team.

Group loyalty is an underestimated source of irrationality in the public sphere, especially when it comes to politicized scientific issues like evolution and climate change. Dan Kahan has shown that, contrary to what most scientists believe, a denial of the facts of human evolution or anthropogenic climate change is not a symptom of scientific illiteracy. The deniers know as much science as the accepters. They contrast instead on political orientation: the farther to the right, the more denial.

Kahan notes that there is a perverse rationality to this “expressive cognition.” Unless you are one of a small number of deciders and influencers, your opinion on climate change will have no effect on the climate. But it could have an enormous effect on how you’re accepted your social circle—whether you’re seen as someone who at best just doesn’t get it and who at worst is a traitor. For someone in a modern university to deny human-made climate change, or for someone in a rural Southern or Midwestern community to affirm it, would be social death. So, it’s perversely rational for people to affirm the validating beliefs of their social circle. The problem is that what’s rational for the individual may not be rational for the nation or the planet. Kahan calls it the “Tragedy of the Belief Commons..”

Another paradox of rationality is pluralistic ignorance, or the “spiral of silence,” in which everyone believes that everyone else believes something but no one actually believes it. A classic example is drinking in college fraternities: a 1998 Princeton study found that the male students mistakenly believed that their fellow students thought it was cool to drink a lot, and during their time on campus gravitated toward endorsing this false norm themselves.18 The same thing happens in college women’s attitudes toward casual sex.

How can pluralistic ignorance happen? How does a false belief keep itself levitated in midair? Michael Macy and his colleagues show that a key factor is enforcement. Not only does the belief never get challenged, but group members believe they must punish or condemn those who don’t hold it—out of the equally mistaken belief that they themselves may be denounced for failing to denounce. Denunciation is a signal of solidarity with the group, which can lead to a cascade of pre-emptive, self-reinforcing denunciation, and sometimes to “extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds” like witch hunts and other bubbles and manias. Sometimes the bubble can be punctured by a public exclamation that the emperor is naked, but it takes an innocent boy or a brave truth-teller.

[Comment: Pinker describes the tribal dynamics around social and political issues.  But Pinker does not himself engage the scientific complexities and uncertainties regarding global warming/climate change.  He reduces the issue down to politics, and thinks that people take sides based on their social circles. He implies that even when scientifically literate people are unconvinced of climate alarms, it’s on political grounds.  When Pinker says most scientists believe in the facts of climate change, he is siding with his leftist colleagues in academia, demonstrating that accepting social proof cuts both ways.

So many alarmist platitudes have been denied in reality.  Arctic ice persists instead of disappearing; Polar bears thrive instead of going extinct;  Storms were worse in the past when CO2 was lower; and so on.  See 11 Empty Climate Claims.  It’s the other side of the point made earlier:  Reality is also that which happens, despite your expecting otherwise.

Consider what Cal physics professor Richard Muller said:  There is a real danger in people with Ph.D.s joining a consensus that they haven’t vetted professionally. . . A really good question would be: “Have you studied climate change enough that you would put your scientific credentials on the line that most of what is said in An Inconvenient Truth is based on accurate scientific results? My guess is that a large majority of the climate scientists would answer no to that question, and the true percentage of scientists who support the statement I made in the opening paragraph of this comment, that true percentage would be under 30%. That is an unscientific guestimate, based on my experience in asking many scientists about the claims of Al Gore.  See Meet Richard Muller, Lukewarmist]

Ours Era Mixes High and Low Rationality

Rationality, to be sure, is not increasing everywhere. In some arenas it appears to sinking fast. The most conspicuous is electoral politics, which is almost perversely designed to inhibit our capacity for rationality. Voters act on issues that don’t affect them personally, and are under no pressure to inform themselves or defend their positions. Practical issues like energy and healthcare are bundled with symbolic hot buttons like euthanasia and the teaching of evolution. These bundles are then strapped to regional, ethnic, or religious coalitions, encouraging group-affirming expressive cognition. People vote as if rooting for sports teams, encouraged by the media, which treat politics as a horse race, encouraging zero-sum competition rather than clarification of character and policy.

And as a recent New York Times op-ed (in which I played a cameo) announced, “Social media is making us dumber.” Not long ago many intellectuals deplored the lack of democratic access to mass media. A few media corporations, in cahoots with the government, “manufactured consent” with their oligopoly over the means of production and dissemination of ideas. As we used to say, freedom of the press belongs to those who own one. Social media held out the promise of giving a voice to The People.

We should have been careful about what we wished for. The network dynamics of social media are still poorly understood, but they do not yet host the mechanisms of vetting and reviewing that are necessary for true beliefs to bubble up to prominence from the turbid pools of self-presentation, group solidarity, and pluralistic ignorance. And they have become launch pads for spirals of moralistic grandstanding and pre-emptive denunciation.

We are now living in an era of rationality inequality. At the high end we’ve never been more rational. But at the low end there are arenas that indulge the worst of human psychology. Much work remains to be done in refining the institutions that bring out the rational angels of our nature.

Universities Embracing Irrationality

And this brings me to the role of universities. Universities ought to be the premier institutions of rationality promotion. They have been granted many privileges and perquisites in exchange for fulfilling the mission of adding to the stock of human knowledge and transmitting it to future generations. State universities and colleges are underwritten by the public purse, as is a great deal of tuition and research support in private ones, together with their tax-exempt status. . . Universities have also been granted credentialing and gatekeeping privileges in business and the professions, where a degree is often an entry requirement despite the questionable value added to a student’s capabilities by four years at a university, according to exit audits

Yet despite these perquisites, universities have become notorious as monocultures of left-wing orthodoxy and the illiberal suppression of heterodox ideas (I won’t review the latest follies, but will mention just two words: Halloween costumes).31 As the civil libertarian Harvey Silverglate has put it, “You can say things in Harvard Square that you can’t say in Harvard Yard.”

Why do universities fall short of what one might think of as their essential mission, promoting openminded rationality? There are several hypotheses. In The Coddling of the American Mind, Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt have suggested that (to oversimplify) helicopter Baby Boomer parents reared iGen snowflakes, who melt at the slightest uncomfortable thought. Another explanation points to an increase in homophily—people gravitating to people who are like them, especially liberals and their children in cities and dense suburbs—which bred a uniformity of opinion on university campuses. The sociologists Bradley Campbell and Jason Manning have described the rise of a Culture of Victimhood, in which prestige comes not from a resolve to retaliate against threats (a Culture of Honor) or an ability to control one’s emotions (a Culture of Dignity) but from a claim to have been victimized on the basis of race or gender, a grievance that is predictably ratified and redressed by the campus bureaucracy.  And since any of these dynamics can weave a network of pluralistic ignorance enforced by denunciation mobs, we can’t know how many intimidated students would privately disavow intellectual orthodoxy and the culture of victimhood but are afraid to say so out of a mistaken fear that everyone else avows it.

Some of this regression is a paradoxical byproduct of the fantastic progress we have made in equality. Vanishingly few people in universities actually hold racist, sexist, homophobic, or transphobic attitudes (though they may have different views on the nature of these categories or the causes of group differences). That means that accusations of racism, sexism, homophobia, and transphobia can be weaponized: since everyone reviles these bigotries, they can be used to demonize adversaries, which in turn spreads a terror of being demonized. The accusations are uniquely noxious because it is virtually impossible to defend oneself against them. “Some of my best friends are X” is risible, and testimony about one’s unprejudiced bona fides or a track record of advancing the careers of women and minorities is not much more exculpatory. This places temptation in people’s paths to denounce others for bigotry before they are denounced themselves: it is one of the few means of pre-emptive self-defense.

Should we care about what happens in the universities? It’s sometimes said that academic disputes are fierce because the stakes are so small. In fact, the stakes are significant. The obvious one is whether universities are carrying out their fiduciary duty to advance knowledge in return for their massive absorption of society’s resources and trust. Another is their creeping influence on the rest of society. As Andrew Sullivan wrote in 2018, “we all live on campus now.” Political correctness and social justice warfare have descended from the ivory tower and infiltrated tech, business, healthcare, and government.

Envy Social Justice

Still worse, intolerance on campus is corroding the credibility of university research on vital topics such as climate change and gun violence. Skeptics on the right can say, “Why should we be impressed if climate scientists are unanimous that human activity is threatening the planet? (Or on any other issue?) They work in universities, which everyone knows are echo chambers of PC dogma.”

So we must safeguard the truth and rationality promoting mission of universities precisely because we are not living in a post-truth era. Humans indeed are often irrational, but not always and everywhere. The rational angels of our nature can and must be encouraged by truth-promoting norms and institutions. Many are succeeding, despite what seems like a growth in reason inequality. Universities, as they become infected with political conformity and restrictions on expressible ideas, seem to be falling short in their mission, but it matters to society that they be held to account: so they can repay the perquisites granted to them, secure the credibility of their own research on vital issues, and inoculate students against extreme and simplistic views by allowing them to evaluate moderate and nuanced ones.