The animation shows Arctic ice rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.  Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.  Several days exceeded the 17 year average with yesterday slightly in deficit. The graph below shows the distribution of ice across the Arctic Regions with 2023 compare to average, to some notable years and to estimates from SII (Sea Ice Index)

Note that refreezing starts mid September and accelerates upward.  October has already added 1.4M km2 and will likely end up 3M higher than end of September. As the table below shows, the ice extents are tracking the 17 year average and 600k km2 greater than 2007.

Yesterday the overall extent was ~6.30M km2, ~100k km2 below average (2%).  Deficits were mostly in Beaufort Sea and CAA, offset by surpluses in Chukchi,Laptev, and Greenland seas, along with Central Arctic.

Previous post:  2023 September Arctic Outlook and Results Not Scary

The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.  This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;  MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.  For comparison the 2007 September values were 4.30M for MASIE and 4.27M for SII.  The predictions below refer to the SII value.

2023: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network

The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.35 and 4.80 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 2.88 to 5.47 million square kilometers. We note that the lowest two forecasts predict a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers), but these forecasts are outliers relative to the other contributions.

These are predictions for the September 2023 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2023 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (17 year average is 2006 to 2022 inclusive).

The graph puts 2023 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2023 was slightly below the 17-year average for the first 5 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained or exceeded average through August. September was below average slightly and above 2007. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2023 was running below MASIE except for May/June and is currently just below MASIE and above 2007 and 2012.

The animation shows the rapid refreezing of Arctic ice from September 30 to yesterday October 9.  Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.  As of yesterday, Day 282, this year has again exceeded the 17 year average.

Previous post:  2023 September Arctic Outlook and Results Not Scary

The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.  This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;  MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.  For comparison the 2007 September values were 4.30M for MASIE and 4.27M for SII.  The predictions below refer to the SII value.

2023: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network

The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.35 and 4.80 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 2.88 to 5.47 million square kilometers. We note that the lowest two forecasts predict a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers), but these forecasts are outliers relative to the other contributions.

These are predictions for the September 2023 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2023 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (17 year average is 2006 to 2022 inclusive).

The graph puts 2023 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2023 was slightly below the 17-year average for the first 5 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained or exceeded average through August. September was below average slightly and above 2007. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2023 was running below MASIE except for May/June and is currently just below MASIE and above 2007 and 2012.

The table below provides the numbers for comparisons (all are M km2)

The first two columns are the 2023 YTD shown by MASIE and SII, with the MASIE surpluses in column three.  Column four shows MASIE 2023 compared to MASIE 17 year average, while column five shows SII 2023 compared to SII 17 year average.  YTD September both MASIE and SII ~300k km2 below average. The last column shows MASIE 2023 holding a September surplus of 132k km2 over 2007.

Summary and Update

The experts involved in SIPN were expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022.  The way it came out MASIE September was 285k km2 below average and 132 above 2007.  The Chart below shows the October ice recovery is well under way, now exceeding the average. 

The table shows Day 282 (October 9) ice extents for NH overall and the regions, comparing 2023 to average and several years.

On Day 282 Arctic ice was 127k km2 above average and nearly 870k km2 above 2007. The major deficits were in Beaufort, East Siberian seas and Canadian Archipelago.  They were more than offset by surpluses in Laptev, Greenland sea and Central Arctic as well as smaller surpluses elsewhere.  From previous years we can expect that October 2023 will gain more than 3M km2 of ice extent over the ending extent in September.

The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.  This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;  MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.  For comparison the 2007 September values were 4.30M for MASIE and 4.27M for SII.  The predictions below refer to the SII value.

2023: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network

The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.35 and 4.80 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 2.88 to 5.47 million square kilometers. We note that the lowest two forecasts predict a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers), but these forecasts are outliers relative to the other contributions.

These are predictions for the September 2023 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2023 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (17 year average is 2006 to 2022 inclusive).

The graph puts 2023 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2023 was slightly below the 17-year average for the first 5 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained or exceeded average through August. September was below average slightly and above 2007. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2023 was running below MASIE except for May/June and is currently just below MASIE and above 2007 and 2012.

The table below provides the numbers for comparisons (all are M km2)

The first two columns are the 2023 YTD shown by MASIE and SII, with the MASIE surpluses in column three.  Column four shows MASIE 2023 compared to MASIE 17 year average, while column five shows SII 2023 compared to SII 17 year average.  YTD September both MASIE and SII ~300k km2 below average. The last column shows MASIE 2023 holding a September surplus of 132k km2 over 2007.

Summary and Update

The experts involved in SIPN were expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022.  The way it came out MASIE September was 285k km2 below average and 132 above 2007.  The Chart below shows the October ice recovery is well under way, reaching average briefly.

The table shows Day 281 (October 8) ice extents for NH overall and the regions, comparing 2023 to average and several years.

On Day 281 Arctic ice was 100k km2 below average and nearly 700k km2 above 2007. The major deficits were in Beaufort, East Siberian seas and Canadian Archipelago.  Offsetting were surpluses in Laptev, Greenland sea and Central Arctic as well as smaller surpluses elsewhere.  From previous years we can expect that October 2023 will gain more than 3M km2 of ice extent over the ending extent in September.

2023: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network

The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.35 and 4.80 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 2.88 to 5.47 million square kilometers. We note that the lowest two forecasts predict a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers), but these forecasts are outliers relative to the other contributions.

These are predictions for the September 2023 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2023 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (17 year average is 2006 to 2022 inclusive).

The graph puts 2023 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2023 was slightly below the 17-year average for the first 5 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained or exceeded average through August. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2023 was running below MASIE except for May/Juneand is currently just below MASIE 2007 and 2012.

The table below provides the numbers for comparisons (all are M km2)

The first two columns are the 2023 YTD shown by MASIE and SII, with the MASIE surpluses in column three.  Column four shows MASIE 2023 compared to MASIE 17 year average, while column five shows SII 2023 compared to SII 17 year average.  YTD August both MASIE and SII are very slightly below average. The last column shows MASIE 2017 holding an August surplus of 241k km2 over 2007.

Summary

The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022.  The way MASIE is going, this September looks to be nearly average unless some bad weather intervenes.  While the daily minimum for the year occurs mid September, ice extent on September 30 is typically slightly higher than on September 1.

Footnote:

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year’s charts can not be compared with another year? Researchers do this, including Walt Meier in charge of Sea Ice Index. That said, I understand his interest in directing people to use his product rather than one he does not control. As I have said before:

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset

MASIE: “high-resolution, accurate charts of ice conditions”
Walt Meier, NSIDC, October 2015 article in Annals of Glaciology.