The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 151 (end of May) through yesterday June 30, 2023  As usual, the Pacific basins Bering and Okhotsk (far left) became ice-free and are no longer included in these updates. Years vary as to which regions retain more or less ice.  For example, this year Hudson Bay (bottom right) lost half its ice by June 30, earlier than average.  That is a shallow basin and can quickly lose its ice in coming days.  Despite this early melting, the NH Ice extent remains greater than the 17 year average.

The graph below compares the June monthly ice extents 2007 to 2023 and compared to the 17 year average.

Clearly June ice appears as a plateau, and most years MASIE shows greater extents than SII, with differences of only a few 100k km2.  Previously 2019-20 were in deficit to average, but June 2022-3 have returned to surplus years.  More on MASIE dataset at the end.

The graph shows the melting pattern during June 2023 remained above average all month, and greatly exceeded 2007 and 2020, especially in the last 2 weeks.  June 30, 2023 was 322k km2 in surplus, and exceeded 2007 by 0.4 Wadhams (M km2).

The table below shows ice extents by regions comparing 2023 with 17-year average (2006 to 2022 inclusive) and 2007.

Region	2023181	Day 181 Average	2023-Ave.	2007181	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10072140	9750262	321878	9672969	399171
(1) Beaufort_Sea	919937	927608	-7671	939209	-19272
(2) Chukchi_Sea	804545	723247	81299	670088	134457
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1021758	1010088	11669	901963	119795
(4) Laptev_Sea	738148	699906	38242	658742	79406
(5) Kara_Sea	568642	542617	26025	657478	-88836
(6) Barents_Sea	99262	117038	-17776	130101	-30839
(7) Greenland_Sea	650550	499950	150600	548399	102152
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	703359	513540	189819	450461	252898
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	743003	780546	-37543	773611	-30607
(10) Hudson_Bay	577518	707353	-129835	718441	-140923
(11) Central_Arctic	3241230	3204305	36925	3218999	22231

2023 is 322k km2 above average (3.3%). The main deficit is in Hudson Bay, more than offset by large  surpluses in Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea, along with additonal ice elsewhere.

Footnote on MASIE Data Sources:

MASIE reports are based on data primarily from NIC’s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). From the documentation, the multiple sources feeding IMS are:

Platform(s) AQUA, DMSP, DMSP 5D-3/F17, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13, GOES-9, METEOSAT, MSG, MTSAT-1R, MTSAT-2, NOAA-14, NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, NOAA-18, NOAA-N, RADARSAT-2, SUOMI-NPP, TERRA

Sensor(s): AMSU-A, ATMS, AVHRR, GOES I-M IMAGER, MODIS, MTSAT 1R Imager, MTSAT 2 Imager, MVIRI, SAR, SEVIRI, SSM/I, SSMIS, VIIRS

Summary: IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) has an extensive history of monitoring snow and ice coverage.Accurate monitoring of global snow/ice cover is a key component in the study of climate and global change as well as daily weather forecasting.

The Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs (POES/GOES) operated by NESDIS provide invaluable visible and infrared spectral data in support of these efforts. Clear-sky imagery from both the POES and the GOES sensors show snow/ice boundaries very well; however, the visible and infrared techniques may suffer from persistent cloud cover near the snowline, making observations difficult (Ramsay, 1995). The microwave products (DMSP and AMSR-E) are unobstructed by clouds and thus can be used as another observational platform in most regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery also provides all-weather, near daily capacities to discriminate sea and lake ice. With several other derived snow/ice products of varying accuracy, such as those from NCEP and the NWS NOHRSC, it is highly desirable for analysts to be able to interactively compare and contrast the products so that a more accurate composite map can be produced.

The Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS first began generating Northern Hemisphere Weekly Snow and Ice Cover analysis charts derived from the visible satellite imagery in November, 1966. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the analysis (190 km and 7 days, respectively) remained unchanged for the product’s 33-year lifespan.

As a result of increasing customer needs and expectations, it was decided that an efficient, interactive workstation application should be constructed which would enable SAB to produce snow/ice analyses at a higher resolution and on a daily basis (~25 km / 1024 x 1024 grid and once per day) using a consolidated array of new as well as existing satellite and surface imagery products. The Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover chart has been produced since February, 1997 by SAB meteorologists on the IMS.

Another large resolution improvement began in early 2004, when improved technology allowed the SAB to begin creation of a daily ~4 km (6144×6144) grid. At this time, both the ~4 km and ~24 km products are available from NSIDC with a slight delay. Near real-time gridded data is available in ASCII format by request.

In March 2008, the product was migrated from SAB to the National Ice Center (NIC) of NESDIS. The production system and methodology was preserved during the migration. Improved access to DMSP, SAR, and modeled data sources is expected as a short-term from the migration, with longer term plans of twice daily production, GRIB2 output format, a Southern Hemisphere analysis, and an expanded suite of integrated snow and ice variable on horizon. Source:  Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS)

Apparently someone posted on Facebook that Arctic ice extent is presently surplus to average, which triggered the fact checking agency employed by the platform.  The content below is from The Cable Fact Check No, short time data can’t determine overall decline of arctic sea ice.  In italics with my bolds and comments in parentheses.

Facebook post has claimed that arctic ice is neither declining nor disappearing.

Attached to the post was an article showing a graph for arctic ice for mid-April through mid-May in 2007, 2018, 2021 and 2023. 

The article was titled: “Arctic Ice Plentiful Mid May 2023”.

The graph indicated that the area of the ocean covered by a certain percentage of ice is higher in 2023 than in the other listed years and similar to the 17-year average.

“The ice is not disappearing,” says the Facebook post, which claimed that data for the month of April and May 2023 shows that the arctic sea ice is not declining. [consistent with “similar to the 17-year average”]

RECORDS SHOW THAT SEA ICE IS DECREASING

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a US agency responsible for aeronautics and space research, the volume of ice has significantly reduced. [Note the switch to the volume metric which is model estimated with considerable uncertainty]

The US agency has also reported that the average age of sea ice is becoming shorter.

Citing far back as the late 1970s, when satellite recording commenced, NASA says most of the ice covering the arctic ocean at that time was greater than 4 years old.

Presently, most of the ice covering the ocean is first-year ice, formed during winter, and very unlikely to withstand a single melt season during summer.  [Really, how about this:

Also, data released by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, explains that the size of the arctic sea has declined since the 1970s. [size of the sea itself?]

Although the 2023 sea ice extents were slightly higher for the period under review – mid-April through mid-May than in 2007, 2018 and 2021 – just like the Facebook post stated. However, the sea ice varies by year and season despite that it is experiencing an overall decline. [Varies, yes, but the decline stopped in 2007:

Sea ice extent is the area of ice that covers the arctic ocean at a given time.

Climate experts have also reported that compiling or analysing short-term data is inadequate for making accurate climatological inferences.

Olusola Ayantobo, a hydro-climatologist and research associate at China’s Tsinghua University, had told TheCable that “station data shouldn’t be used to predict climate change conditions over a particular region”.

The climate expert added that: “Short-term datasets can only be used for weather prediction while a long dataset is appropriate for climate change predictions.” [Note that both their preferred Sea Ice Index (SII) and MASIE the best current condition dataset, validated from 2006 forward, show the same lack of decline in sea ice extent]

Experts say that though two decades might look quite long, however, it is short when studying long-term climate trends.  [True, but the same people predicted an ice-free arctic based on the decline from 1997 to 2007.]

MELTING SEA ICE AGGRAVATES GLOBAL WARMING

The albedo effect explains why the rapid melting of sea ice aggravates climate change. The theory says that the bright surface of the ice reflects solar energy, which has a cooling effect. Also, ocean water, which is darker, absorbs more solar energy, causing more warming. 

The loss of sea ice warms the arctic, hence, contributing to a phenomenon referred to as arctic amplification, a process through which the arctic warms at a faster rate than lower latitudes.

VERDICT

The claim that the sea ice is neither melting nor disappearing is false.

Long-term studies dating back to 1970 show that arctic sea ice has declined significantly. Climate experts have also warned that only long-term data analysis can provide accurate inferences when studying climate trends. [Note: Does that mean ignoring the last 17 years of ice stability?]

This fact check was produced by TheCable with support from Code for Africa’s PesaCheck, International Fact-Checking Network, and African Fact Checking Alliance network. [Code For Africa is funded by 2 investors. Omidyar Network and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are the most recent investors.]

[Comment:  As usual, they are checking a narrative, rather than facts.  And then cherry-pick other facts or statements favoring their preferred narrative.]

Regarding Arctic “Amplification”

An artifact of using anomalies, which are highly variable at higher latitudes:

The Original Post:  Arctic Ice Plentiful Mid May 2023

The image above shows 2023 Arctic ice extents from Mid April (day 106) to Mid May (day 135). As usual, the LIFO pattern is observed: ice that is Last In is the First Out.  The Pacific basins of Okhotsk (top left) and Bering (bottom left) rapidly turn to open water.  Baffin Bay (lower right) melts more slowly. Barents Sea (top center loses ice extent steadily.  Note Hudson Bay (bottom) keeps its ice, and Canadian Archipelago (lower center) retains most of its ice. On the left center, the Eurasian coastline remains frozen.

The graph below shows 2023 compared to 17 year average and some recent years for this time period.

Firstly, on average this period shows ice declining 1.44 M km2 down to 12.68M km2,  Note that  2023 matched the average in April, then retained more ice than usual during first two weeks of May. Sea Ice Index (SII) was close to MASIE throughout..  The other years, including 2007, were ~300k km2 lower than average.

Region	2023135	Day 135 Average	2023-Ave.	2007135	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12771477	12677903	93574	12431928	339549
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1050531	1046418	4113	1057649	-7118
(2) Chukchi_Sea	943942	926464	17478	953491	-9549
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1085822	1081321	4501	1075314	10508
(4) Laptev_Sea	897060	881069	15991	828738	68322
(5) Kara_Sea	919027	879799	39228	876053	42974
(6) Barents_Sea	407569	418431	-10862	351553	56016
(7) Greenland_Sea	730714	619664	111050	564865	165849
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	979333	1076523	-97190	1018780	-39447
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	841610	839708	1902	830604	11006
(10) Hudson_Bay	1153016	1186552	-33536	1167310	-14294
(11) Central_Arctic	3247995	3223255	24740	3234305	13690
(12) Bering_Sea	296036	301878	-5842	298268	-2231
(13) Baltic_Sea	6134	7668	-1534	6368	-234
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	211027	186778	24249	164833	46194

The table shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic basins.  The main deficits to average are Baffin and Hudson Bays, more than offset by surpluses in Kara and Greenland Seas. Most other regions are surplus with a few slightly negative.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

The image above shows 2023 Arctic ice extents from May 1 (day 121) to May end (day 151).  The Pacific basins of Okhotsk (center left) and Bering (bottom left) rapidly turn to open water.  Baffin Bay (center right) melts more slowly. Barents Sea (top center steadily loses ~200k km2 ice extent.  Note Hudson Bay (bottom) mostly keeps its ice, ending the month with 86% of its March max.  And Canadian Archipelago (lower center) retains 97% of its ice. On the left center, the Eurasian coastline remains mostly frozen.

The graph below shows 2023 compared to 17 year average and some recent years for this time period.

Firstly, on average this period shows ice declining 1.73 M km2 down to 11.72 M km2,  Note that  2023 matched the average May 1,  then retained more ice than usual during May, ending with a decline of 1.24 M km2.  Most of May Sea Ice Index (SII) tracked higher than MASIE, an average 100 km2 extra ice extent..  The other years, including 2006, were 200 to 300k km2 lower than average.

Region	2023151	Day 151 Average	2023-Ave.	2006151	2023-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11996164	11720243	275920	11425616	570548
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1050178	1007125	43053	1063879	-13700
(2) Chukchi_Sea	926367	866851	59516	907609	18758
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1058013	1065740	-7727	1073889	-15876
(4) Laptev_Sea	840340	827727	12614	856108	-15768
(5) Kara_Sea	761159	832280	-71121	848172	-87013
(6) Barents_Sea	214069	313115	-99046	180906	33163
(7) Greenland_Sea	785442	568692	216750	522040	263402
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	958973	902385	56588	721606	237367
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	831728	813589	18138	800561	31167
(10) Hudson_Bay	1079040	1091081	-12041	989550	89490
(11) Central_Arctic	3243187	3218357	24830	3188696	54491
(12) Bering_Sea	131130	115713	15417	179378	-48248
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	243	-243	720	-720
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	115156	95869	19287	89739	25417

The table shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic basins.  The main deficits to average are Kara and Barents Seas, more than offset by surpluses in Beaufort, Chukchi, and Greenland Seas, along with Baffin Bay. Most other regions are surplus with a few slightly negative.  Note that 2023 exceeds May 2006 by  more than half a Wadham (1M km2 ice extent).

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

The image above shows 2023 Arctic ice extents from Mid April (day 106) to Mid May (day 135). As usual, the LIFO pattern is observed: ice that is Last In is the First Out.  The Pacific basins of Okhotsk (top left) and Bering (bottom left) rapidly turn to open water.  Baffin Bay (lower right) melts more slowly. Barents Sea (top center loses ice extent steadily.  Note Hudson Bay (bottom) keeps its ice, and Canadian Archipelago (lower center) retains most of its ice. On the left center, the Eurasian coastline remains frozen.

The graph below shows 2023 compared to 17 year average and some recent years for this time period.

Firstly, on average this period shows ice declining 1.44 M km2 down to 12.68M km2,  Note that  2023 matched the average in April, then retained more ice than usual during first two weeks of May. Sea Ice Index (SII) was close to MASIE throughout..  The other years, including 2007, were ~300k km2 lower than average.

Region	2023135	Day 135 Average	2023-Ave.	2007135	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12771477	12677903	93574	12431928	339549
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1050531	1046418	4113	1057649	-7118
(2) Chukchi_Sea	943942	926464	17478	953491	-9549
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1085822	1081321	4501	1075314	10508
(4) Laptev_Sea	897060	881069	15991	828738	68322
(5) Kara_Sea	919027	879799	39228	876053	42974
(6) Barents_Sea	407569	418431	-10862	351553	56016
(7) Greenland_Sea	730714	619664	111050	564865	165849
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	979333	1076523	-97190	1018780	-39447
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	841610	839708	1902	830604	11006
(10) Hudson_Bay	1153016	1186552	-33536	1167310	-14294
(11) Central_Arctic	3247995	3223255	24740	3234305	13690
(12) Bering_Sea	296036	301878	-5842	298268	-2231
(13) Baltic_Sea	6134	7668	-1534	6368	-234
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	211027	186778	24249	164833	46194

The table shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic basins.  The main deficits to average are Baffin and Hudson Bays, more than offset by surpluses in Kara and Greenland Seas. Most other regions are surplus with a few slightly negative.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

With the end of February, nearly all of the Arctic ocean basins are frozen over, so the growth of ice extent slows down, reaching its annual maximum mid-March.  According to MASIE February on average adds 500k km2, and this year the growth was 880k km2, erasing a starting deficit and matching the month end average. The few basins that can grow ice this time of year tend to fluctuate and alternate waxing and waning, which appears as a see saw pattern in these images.  For example, this year the two Pacific basins combined were slightly above average, but Okhotsk is 33% in surplus, while Bering is 26% in deficit to their last March maximums.

The month of February 2023 was remarkable for a wobbly Polar vortex, which cycles freezing polar air south, replacing it with incursions of warmer air into the Arctic, and then reverses the effect. This results in rising and falling freezing rates.  The graph below shows the ice recovery for February 2023, the 17-year average and some recent years.

The graph (cyan) shows February 2023 starting with a 284k km2 deficit to average, several up and downs in the growth rate, until matching average at month end. 2020 also ended average with a steady refreezing rate.   SII (Sea Ice Index) tracked well below MASIE this month showing 400k km2 lower extent than MASIE yesterday.

February Ice Growth Despite See Saws in Atlantic and Pacific

As noted above, this time of year the Arctic adds ice on the fringes since the central basins are already frozen over.  The animation above shows the Okhotsk (upper left) and Bering (lower left) see saw.  Okhotsk grew steadily to reach 133% of its last maximum, while Bering waffled up and down, ending the month ~100k km2 higher and 74% of its max.

On the right, Atlantic side Barents at the top fluctuated and added little ice ending at 56% of its max.  On the lower right, Baffin Bay, and Greenland Sea (center right) show another see saw.  Greenland Sea waffled adding`80k km2, ending  at 96% of max, while Baffin Bay steadily added 300k km2 to reach 90% of maximum.

The table below presents ice extents in the Arctic regions for day 31 (Jan. 31) compared to the 17 year average and 2018.

Region	2023059	Day 59 Average	2023-Ave.	2018059	2023-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14878631	14899627	-20996	14485052	393579
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070314	652	1070445	521
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965374	632	965971	35
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087106	32	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897836	9	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	884398	926234	-41836	922905	-38507
(6) Barents_Sea	442032	631999	-189967	544938	-102906
(7) Greenland_Sea	745952	611275	134677	473064	272889
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1624859	1519162	105697	1786606	-161747
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854843	853331	1511	853109	1734
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260417	487	1260838	66
(11) Central_Arctic	3185508	3213856	-28349	3065181	120326
(12) Bering_Sea	627138	664021	-36884	336065	291073
(13) Baltic_Sea	81571	98009	-16437	123280	-41709
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1132332	1058413	73919	1069898	62433

The table shows the only major deficit to average appears in Barents seas, more than offset by surpluses in Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay. These few peripheral basins are the only remaining regions with additional ice extent to add.

The polar bears have a Valentine Day’s wish for Arctic Ice.

And Arctic Ice loves them back, returning every year so the bears can roam and hunt for seals.

Footnote:

Seesaw accurately describes Arctic ice in another sense:  The ice we see now is not the same ice we saw previously.  It is better to think of the Arctic as an ice blender than as an ice cap, explained in the post The Great Arctic Ice Exchange.