In the chart below MASIE shows Arctic ice extent is below average and lower than 2015 at this point in the year.

Looking into the details, it is clear that the marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central ice pack is holding steady.

Ice Extents			Ice Extent
Region	2015136	2016136	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12585032	12116610	-468423
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1033428	942536	-90892
(2) Chukchi_Sea	930045	933354	3309
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087120	-17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	899673	864423	-35250
(6) Barents_Sea	337707	222091	-115616
(7) Greenland_Sea	615714	575320	-40395
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1201099	1015356	-185743
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	833900	830174	-3726
(10) Hudson_Bay	1175953	1185893	9940
(11) Central_Arctic	3237268	3198923	-38345
(12) Bering_Sea	153646	160277	6630
(13) Baltic_Sea	66	2839	2774
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	180119	198519	18400

Another difference this year is the Beaufort Gyre cranking up ten days ago, compacting ice and reducing extent by about 150k km2, and putting the loss ahead of last year.  As Susan Crockford points out (here), this is not melting but ice breaking up and moving. Of course, warmists predict that will result in more melting later on, which remains to be seen. In any case, Beaufort extent is down 12% from max, which amounts to 1% of the NH ice loss so far.

Comparing the Arctic seas extents with their maximums shows the melting at the margins:

2016136	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% NH Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	2960990	19.64%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	127909	11.95%	1%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	32636	3.38%	0%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	0	0.00%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	0	0.00%	0%
(5) Kara_Sea	70565	7.55%	0%
(6) Barents_Sea	377288	62.95%	3%
(7) Greenland_Sea	84393	12.79%	1%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	629226	38.26%	4%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	23004	2.70%	0%
(10) Hudson_Bay	74977	5.95%	1%
(11) Central_Arctic	47787	1.47%	0%
(12) Bering_Sea	607955	79.14%	4%
(13) Baltic_Sea	94743	97.09%	1%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1110178	84.83%	8%

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas, along with Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence; all of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.  The entire difference between 2016 and 2015 arises from Okhotsk starting with about 500k km2 more ice this year, and arriving at this date virtually tied with 2015.

Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

AER says this about the Arctic Oscillation (AO):

Currently, the AO is negative and is predicted to slowly trend towards neutral (Figure 1). The current negative AO is reflective of positive geopotential height anomalies across much of the Arctic, especially the North Atlantic side and mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, and is now trending toward a lower May extent.  OTOH 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO is presently neutral, giving no direction whether cloud cover will reduce the pace of melting or not.  Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.