Mid February is about a month away from the annual maximum Arctic ice extent, and measurements continue to seesaw in the two dynamic places where freezing and drifting cause gains and losses in sea ice. In each region, the gains and losses teeter-totter between two basins.

Here is the Atlantic seesaw with Barents and Baffin.

And here is the Pacific seesaw with Bering and Okhotsk.

While the seesaws are tilting back and forth on the margins, the bulk of the Arctic is frozen solid. And with limited places where more extent can be added, the pace of overall growth has slowed.

The graph shows that 2017 and 2006 are virtually tied at this date. It shows both years are below average by about 450k km2, and SII adds a further deficit by showing 2017 averaging in February ~400k km2 lower than MASIE.

The table below shows ice extents in the seas comprising the Arctic, comparing day 044 2017 with the same day average over the last 11 years and with 2006.

Region	2017044	Day 044 Average	2017-Ave.	2006044	2017-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14287848	14759423	-471575	14318694	-30846
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070445	1070111	334	1069711	734
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965614	392	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087103	35
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897835	10	897773	71
(5) Kara_Sea	908380	908367	12	932924	-24545
(6) Barents_Sea	363927	581052	-217125	507771	-143844
(7) Greenland_Sea	565090	633257	-68167	592221	-27131
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1564353	1451561	112792	1209203	355150
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853214	852984	230	852715	499
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260476	427	1257433	3470
(11) Central_Arctic	3209792	3215238	-5446	3178718	31074
(12) Bering_Sea	564241	759583	-195342	889465	-325224
(13) Baltic_Sea	59994	105815	-45822	68543	-8549
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	834828	895634	-60806	720201	114628
(15) Yellow_Sea	17654	31061	-13407	20909	-3255
(16) Cook_Inlet	9131	12083	-2952	9530	-399

The table indicates some differences in locations of ice surpluses and deficits. Bering Sea has been the largest deficit this year, while Barents is now matching it by losing ~100k in the last week. Greenland Sea is also down slightly compared to average and to 2006. Baffin Bay is the largest surplus to average and to 2006. Okhotsk lost more than 200k km2 in recent days, but still exceeds 2006 by 115k.

The second half of February will be interesting. The average year in the last eleven gained about 200k km2 from now to month end. But the variability ranged from 2006 losing 170K to 2012 gaining 590k km2. What will the ice do this year?

The polar bears have a Valentine Day’s wish for Arctic Ice.

And Arctic Ice loves them back, returning every year so the bears can roam and hunt for seals.

Footnote:

Seesaw accurately describes Arctic ice in another sense:  The ice we see now is not the same ice we saw previously.  It is better to think of the Arctic as an ice blender than as an ice cap, explained in the post The Great Arctic Ice Exchange.