Zero Global Warming This Century

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The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean.  But as an overview consider how recent rapid cooling has now completely overcome the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April and now again in November, 2021 (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020).

 

For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~55 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

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The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby.  These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event.  The exhibit shows since 1947 GMT warmed by 0.8 C, from 13.9 to 14.7, as estimated by Hadcrut4.  This resulted from three natural warming events involving ocean cycles. The most recent rise 2013-16 lifted temperatures by 0.2C.  Previously the 1997-98 El Nino produced a plateau increase of 0.4C.  Before that, a rise from 1977-81 added 0.2C to start the warming since 1947.

Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate.  On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. 

Update August 3, 2021

Chris Schoeneveld has produced a similar graph to the animation above, with a temperature series combining HadCRUT4 and UAH6. H/T WUWT

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See Also Worst Threat: Greenhouse Gas or Quiet Sun?

November Update Ocean and Land Air Temps Plunge

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With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea.  While you will hear a lot about 2020-21 temperatures matching 2016 as the highest ever, that spin ignores how fast is the cooling setting in.  The UAH data analyzed below shows that warming from the last El Nino is now fully dissipated with chilly temperatures setting in all regions.  Last month both land and ocean cooled off dramatically.

UAH has updated their tlt (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for November.  Previously I have done posts on their reading of ocean air temps as a prelude to updated records from HADSST3 (still not updated from September). This month also has a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years. Sometimes air temps over land diverge from ocean air changes, but last month showed air over land and oceans both plummeted down everywhere.

Note:  UAH has shifted their baseline from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 beginning with January 2021.  In the charts below, the trends and fluctuations remain the same but the anomaly values change with the baseline reference shift.

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  Thus the cooling oceans now portend cooling land air temperatures to follow.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

After a technical enhancement to HadSST3 delayed updates Spring 2020, May resumed a pattern of HadSST updates toward the following month end (Sept. last update).  For comparison we can look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6 which are now posted for November.  The temperature record is derived from microwave sounding units (MSU) on board satellites like the one pictured above. Recently there was a change in UAH processing of satellite drift corrections, including dropping one platform which can no longer be corrected. The graphs below are taken from the new and current dataset.

The UAH dataset includes temperature results for air above the oceans, and thus should be most comparable to the SSTs. There is the additional feature that ocean air temps avoid Urban Heat Islands (UHI).  The graph below shows monthly anomalies for ocean temps since January 2015.

Note 2020 was warmed mainly by a spike in February in all regions, and secondarily by an October spike in NH alone. In 2021, SH and the Tropics both pulled the Global anomaly down to a new low in April. Then SH and Tropics upward spikes, along with NH warming brought Global temps to a peak in October.  That warmth is now gone as November 2021 ocean temps plummeted everywhere.

Land Air Temperatures Tracking Downward in Seesaw Pattern

We sometimes overlook that in climate temperature records, while the oceans are measured directly with SSTs, land temps are measured only indirectly.  The land temperature records at surface stations sample air temps at 2 meters above ground.  UAH gives tlt anomalies for air over land separately from ocean air temps.  The graph updated for November is below.

Here we have fresh evidence of the greater volatility of the Land temperatures, along with extraordinary departures by SH land.  Land temps are dominated by NH with a 2020 spike in February, followed by cooling down to July,and a second spike in November.  Note the mid-year spikes in SH winter months.  In December all of that was wiped out. Then 2021 follows a similar pattern with NH spiking in January, then dropping before rising in the summer to peak in October 2021. As with the ocean air temps, all that was erased in November with a sharp cooling everywhere.

The Bigger Picture UAH Global Since 1995

The chart shows monthly anomalies starting 01/1995 to present.  The average anomaly is 0.04, since this period is the same as the new baseline, lacking only the first 4 years. 1995 was chosen as an ENSO neutral year.  The graph shows the 1998 El Nino after which the mean resumed, and again after the smaller 2010 event. The 2016 El Nino matched 1998 peak and in addition NH after effects lasted longer, followed by the NH warming 2019-20.   A small upward bump in 2021 has been reversed with temps now returning again to the mean.

TLTs include mixing above the oceans and probably some influence from nearby more volatile land temps.  Clearly NH and Global land temps have been dropping in a seesaw pattern, more than 1C lower than the 2016 peak.  Since the ocean has 1000 times the heat capacity as the atmosphere, that cooling is a significant driving force.  TLT measures started the recent cooling later than SSTs from HadSST3, but are now showing the same pattern.  It seems obvious that despite the three El Ninos, their warming has not persisted, and without them it would probably have cooled since 1995.  Of course, the future has not yet been written.

 

5 comments

  1. HiFast · December 3, 2021

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

    Like

  2. oldbrew · December 4, 2021

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    The next few years with expected lower than ‘normal’ solar cycle activity should be illuminating, one way or another.

    Like

  3. erl happ · December 4, 2021

    I offer an interpretation of the dynamics behind change in hemispheric and global air and sea surface temperatures in 12 chapters downloadable from my website: https://reality348.wordpress.com/ or directly

    The temperature of the surface of the sea is driven by the extent of overturning and evaporation, both related to differences in surface pressure between zones of endemically high and low surface pressure. Classically, in the case of ENSO it is the difference between surface pressure over the very cold waters to the west of Chile and the very warm waters to the north of Australia that are sometimes described as the ‘Maritime Continent’ that is the best proxy (apart from the temperature of the waters south of the Galapagos) to the state of upwelling across the Pacific, and globally.

    The importance of the upwelling dynamic as a contributor to near surface air temperature is assessed in Chapter 12.

    We place great store on changes in the temperature of the surface of the sea. But, that statistic is not a reliable guide to that status of the Earth’s energy budget. The emphasis on warmest month or warmest decade is ‘unscientific’.

    Paradoxically, cloud cover falls away as the surface of the sea cools and the ocean warms to depth. In general, in the most susceptible latitudes, the air above 500 hPa warms (and cloud evaporates) as the surface of the sea cools due to upwelling phenomena and evaporation. The most susceptible latitudes appear to be those between the Equator and 40° South.

    70% of the surface of the globe is ocean. It’s surface temperature is the classical ‘red herring’.

    Like

    • Ron Clutz · December 5, 2021

      Thanks, Erl, for supplying some thunder from down under. I’ve downloaded your pdf and will take some time to understand it.

      Meanwhile I’m off today to watch the Dune movie with my grandson.

      Like

  4. erl happ · December 4, 2021

    Sorry, I thought it better not to give the direct address.

    Like

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