Michael Baume writes at Spectator Climate change policy: a greater risk than climate change?. Excerpts in italics with my bold. H/T John Ray
Pragmatism is belatedly beating carbon purity as the West seeks to survive the economic consequences of Russia’s monstrous Ukraine war. Only months after its Glasgow swearing of allegiance to the climate catechism that requires faith in scientifically untested computer-programmed prophesies, the West has seen the light – and the energy needed to power it.
- By grabbing at the vilified, carbon-emitting economic lifeline of fossil fuels,
- By rediscovering the energizing virtues of the spurned coal,
- By embracing the scorned fracking in a desperate search for gas,
- By re-opening the closed off-shore petroleum leases to keep industry working, and
- By preferring ‘dangerous’ nuclear power to winters of freezing in the dark,
A severe dose of reality has slowed the West’s race to economic destruction. The two wheels of the climate change cart – the scientifically unprovable words ‘catastrophic’ and ‘irreversible’ – that is carrying the democratic world to economic subjugation under a Putin-Xi authoritarian axis, are looking increasingly wobbly.
These two words, the key to the climate debate, have never been
the subject of empirical, observed scientific proof.
There is little disagreement that there is climate change; the climate has always been changing. But ‘catastrophic’ and ‘irreversible’ (beyond a computer-generated ‘tipping point’) that occupy the central role as drivers of the claimed climate crisis, exist only in computer modelling of what many scientists, in good faith, believe to be the likely outcome of observable current trends. The dogma that ‘the science is settled’ on climate change requires a belief not in proven scientific facts but in the accuracy of scientists’ computer projections of the yet-to-be-demonstrated future consequences of observable facts.
So why should these scientists be believed? The traditional ‘scientific method’ of examining a theory provides the best, but by no means certain, prospect of believable outcomes. This involves surviving the ‘falsification’ principle of rigorous endeavours to refute the theory, so that the scientific consensus eventually accepts it as truth. That is the rock on which the climate change crisis rests. But as an article in last week’s Conversation noted, ‘even if scientists have repeatedly tried, but failed, to refute a given theory, the history of science suggests at some point in the future it may still turn out to be false when new evidence comes to light.’
After decades of steadily increasing support for the ‘climate crisis’ theory,
evidence to the contrary is raising its head.
This is in addition to the negative impact of repeated failures of a multitude of past official forecasts of impending climate disaster. Earlier this year, four leading Italian scientists from universities in Milan, Verona and Padua and the National Institute of Nuclear Physics, published a review of historical climate data, finding no clear positive trend of extreme events and concluding that the current fear of a ‘climate emergency’ is not supported by the scientific data.
This means, they said, that altering our priorities with negative effects ‘could prove deleterious to our ability to face the challenges of the future, (and) squandering natural and human resources’. Their paper, A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming, is a survey of recent research (mirroring the IPCC’s approach) that appeared in the European Physical Journal Plus. ‘Since its origins, the human species has been confronted with the negative effects of the climate; historical climatology has repeatedly used the concept of climate deterioration in order to explain negative effect of extreme events (mainly drought, diluvial phases and cold periods) on civilisation. Today, we are facing a warm phase and, for the first time, we have monitoring capabilities that enable us to objectively evaluate its effects’.
These show that, ‘On the basis of the observational data, the climate crisis that,
according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not yet evident.’
The scientists found that rainfall intensity and frequency was stationary in many parts of the world. Tropical hurricanes and cyclones showed little change over the long term, and the same is true of US tornadoes. Other meteorological categories including natural disasters, floods, droughts and ecosystem productivity showed no ‘clear positive trend of extreme events’. Regarding ecosystems, the scientists noted a considerable ‘greening’ of global plant biomass in recent decades caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Satellite data show ‘greening’ trends over most of the planet, increasing food yields and pushing back of deserts
But the scientists nevertheless believe there is a need for action on the climate: ‘We should work to minimise our impact on the planet and to minimise air and water pollution…. How the climate of the twenty-first century will play out is a topic of deep uncertainty. We need to increase our resiliency to whatever the future climate will present us…
(But) we need to remind ourselves that addressing climate change is not an end in itself
and is not the only problem the world is facing.’
This cautionary note was echoed in a report quoted in the latest Weekend Australian from some of Australia’s most senior climate scientists led by UNSW Professor Andy Pitman. It warned that bank regulators, with little understanding of the uncertainty inherent in climate model projections, could cause ‘major systemic risk to the global financial system’ by their continued use.’ It is not science designed for the financial sector’, as physical climate models do not represent weather, so imposing a serious limitation in determining future climate risk for the financial sector. Yet Australia’s Reserve Bank will use network-derived climate scenarios in its internal analysis of climate-related risks. Most regulators, banks, insurers and investors are using projection-based scenarios ‘without fully accounting for uncertainty’.
This follows Pitman’s submission to APRA on its draft guidelines on climate risk that the corporate sector could be preparing for the financial costs of climate change based on misleading and flawed advice from the prudential regulator. ‘There is next to no capacity to provide advice to business on how the joint probability of multiple extreme weather events will change in the future.’
The only thing certain about climate science is uncertainty.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
The climate change narrative is based upon an application of the Fallacy of Misplaced Concreteness by the argument made by a modern climate model under which an “abstract” event of the future for Earth’s climate system is mistaken for a “concrete” event of the future. where an “abstract” event of the future lacks a location in space and time while a “concrete” event of the future has such a location.
Richard Betts, Stefan Rahmstorf and Friederike Otto were contacted by ‘fact checkers’ at AFP and have condemned the Italian climate crisis study as misleading and cherry-picking data. Otto and Rahmstorf have even hysterically called for it to be withdrawn. Betts claims that the paper ignores AR6 and its conclusions about extreme weather, but the paper was only submitted for publication just a few short months before AR6 WG1 was published. AR5 WG1 confirms most of what the Italians say. AR6 used a new set of extreme weather indices (Met Office HadEx3) which are exaggerating the trends in extreme weather since 1950. Yet another case of changing climate/weather history to suit the narrative.
Jaime, thanks for commenting and for the tip regarding HadEx3. I see this publication in AGU:
Development of an Updated Global Land In Situ-Based Data Set of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: HadEX3. From the abstract:
“Both the short and long time scale behavior of HadEX3 agrees well with existing products. Changes in the temperature indices are widespread and consistent with global-scale warming. The extremes related to daily minimum temperatures are changing faster than the maximum. Spatial changes in the linear trends of precipitation indices over 1950–2018 are less spatially coherent than those for temperature indices. Globally, there are more heavy precipitation events that are also more intense and contribute a greater fraction to the total.”
Can you refer me to analyses that find issues with HadEx3 trends?
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Ron, you have to read through the entire paper to realise that there is a significant difference between the way the indices for HadEX3 have been calculated compared to HadEX and HadEX2. In particular, the first two versions used the reference period 1961-90, whereas HadEX3 now exists in two versions using 1961-90 and 1981-2010, which show considerable difference in the trends of extremes, with 1981-2010 generally giving lower trends. Which version did IPCC AR6 use I wonder? There are a number of other important differences between HadEX3 and earlier versions. Although the authors maintain that there is ‘good agreement’ between HadEX2 and 3, the trends in the latter, particularly for temperature indices and particularly since 1950-60, looking at their own graphs, consistently exceed version 2 (common ref. period 1961-90).
Of course, there has been some warming, IMO all coming from ENSO events.
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