The previous post below sounded the alarm about ice halting Arctic shipping early.  October 14, the two Northern Sea Route choke points are in place:  Chukchi (bottom left) blocking entrance to Bering sea, and Laptev (upper left) stopping traffic to European seas. By yesterday  Laptev and East Siberian seas are completely covered, each over 95% of last March max extents. Chukchi is at 50% with its coastline covered. Kara (top left) is also adding ice rapidly. Less obviously Canadian Archipelago (lower center) doubled in 10 days up to 300k km2.

The graph below shows October ice extents on average and for some notable years.

The October gain in ice extents averages ~3.5M km2 up to 8.6M km2.  It is the month adding the most ice each year.  2024 has recovered more slowly than usual or than 2023, tracking along with 2007. The re-freezing has accelerated in the last 10 days.

The report comes from Malte Humpert at gCaptain  Early Winter Ice Halts Arctic Shipping Traffic Weeks Ahead of Schedule.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The summer shipping window on Russia’s Northern Sea Route is coming to a rapid close weeks ahead of schedule. A number of vessels and convoys are rushing to complete their transits before the route shuts down in the next three weeks.

Unlike the last couple of summers when Russia’s Arctic coastal waterways were fully clear of sea ice, residual winter ice persisted in the eastern section this year. This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas.

NSRIO: Ice is still present in the eastern sector of the NSR preventing free passage of ships without ice class. The nuclear icebreaker Sibir has been operating in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas since the end of June together with the nuclear icebreaker Vaygach, which has been in the area since mid-July. In several areas of the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas heavy ice conditions are still observed, which directly affects the admission of low ice class vessels to these areas. The western part of the NSR is mostly ice-free. Above is a map of ice conditions as of August 7, 2024.

Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration announced that vessels with no ice class will have to vacate the waterway by October 15, around 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule. For vessels with light and medium ice classifications the navigation season will end on October 20 and October 31 respectively.

The last permitted start of convoys heading east will be October 10, leaving just one more week for vessels to begin their Arctic transit.

This year’s early shutdown comes three years after narrowly avoiding a major incident three years ago. In October 2021 Russian authorities reacted too late to begin closing down the NSR as winter sea ice drifted into the main shipping channel and trapped two dozen vessels for more than a month. A 30 centimeter or one foot thick ice layer had formed by the end of October across hundreds of miles of Arctic Ocean.
 
Several icebreakers, including the powerful nuclear vessel Yamal, rushed to the scene from Murmansk over 3,000 nautical miles away to help free the stranded vessels. Over the course of more than 6 weeks several icebreakers worked to break the vessels free and escort them to safety out of the eastern section of the Northern Sea Route. The situation did not fully resolve until the end of December when the last vessels were freed.

Vessels stuck in thick winter sea ice in November 2021 awaiting rescue. (Source: Rosatomflot)

Currently a number of container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers
and LNG tankers are passing through the route.

In the Far East two LNG carriers and two oil tankers, including the Suezmax tanker Sai Baba, are currently passing through the waters adjacent to the Bering Strait. They are staying clear of multi-year ice around Wrangel Island which has persisted and troubled shipping all summer. A nuclear icebreaker had remained on standby for much of the summer keeping the shipping lane open.

Select container ships, crude oil tankers, and bulk and LNG carriers currently on the NSR. (Source: Shipatlas)

Further west along the route, the first-ever conventional Panamax container ship in the Arctic is about halfway through its transit. The vessel had originally intended to also conduct its return voyage via the Arctic, but will now likely have to return to Asia via the Suez Canal or South Africa route.

A massive Capesize bulk carrier without any ice class, Dodo, is also rushing to complete its eastbound voyage to Caofeidian, China.