Good Reasons to Distrust Climatists

The most recent case of climatists’ bad behavior is the retraction of a peer-reviewed paper analyzing the properties of CO2 as an IR active gas, concluding that additional levels of atmospheric CO2 will have negligible effect on temperatures.  From the Daily Sceptic:

Another important paper taking issue with the ‘settled’ climate narrative has been cancelled following a report in the Daily Sceptic and subsequent reposts that went viral across social media. The paper discussed the atmospheric ‘saturation’ of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and argued that higher levels will not cause temperatures to rise. The work was led by the widely-published Polish scientist Dr. Jan Kubicki and appeared on Elsevier’s ScienceDirect website in December 2023. The paper has been widely discussed on social media since April 2024 when the Daily Sceptic reported on the findings. Interest is growing in the saturation hypothesis not least because it provides a coherent explanation for why life and the biosphere grew and often thrived for 600 million years despite much higher atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases. Alas for control freaks, it also destroys the science backing for the Net Zero fantasy.

Below are some comments responding to a Quora question, text in italics with my bolds and added images:

What are some reasons why some people do not believe in climate change or global warming despite scientific evidence? Is there any additional information that could help us understand their perspective?

Answer from Mike Jonas,  M.A. in Mathematics, Oxford University, UK, 

Good scientists do not lie and cheat to protect their science, they are happy to discuss their evidence and their findings, and they always understand that everything needs to be replicable and verifiable.

When Climategate erupted on the scene, and the climate scientists behind the man-made global warming narrative were found to have lied and cheated, all honest scientists thought that would be the end of it. Instead, what happened was that those climate scientists closed ranks and carried on, supported by a massive amount of government (ie, the public’s) money. One of the first things they did was to deflect Climategate by saying the emails involved had been hacked so should be ignored, but some of the people involved confirmed that all of the emails really were genuine.

It has been about 15 years since Climategate, and study after study has shown virtually all of the components of the man-made global warming narrative to be incorrect, even that none of the computer models used by the IPCC are fit for purpose,

And yet they maintained their closed ranks,
and the government money kept pouring in.

Did you know that the IPCC does not do any research (please do check that, on their web page About – IPCC they state “The IPCC does not conduct its own research”). It is, as its name says, an inter-governmental organisation, and it is run by and for governments. They say lots of persuasive sciency things, but the simple fact is that they cherry-pick and corrupt the science to achieve their ends. Regrettably, almost all the scientific societies are on the gravy train too. This is part of what the highly respected physicist Professor Hal Lewis said in his resignation letter to the American Physical Society (APS):

It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare.

I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge?
It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it.

If you want to find out more about this “greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud”, the website Watts Up With That? is a good place to start (the fraudsters absolutely hate it), and it links to many other good websites. It has the full text of Hal Lewis’ resignation letter at:

Hal Lewis: My Resignation From The American Physical Society – an important moment in science history

Answer from Susannah Moyer

It’s curious that climate science is the rare scientific field where dissenting scientists, those with contrarian views, are unwelcome and even ostracized.

There are some well known climate scientists that have doubts about the role of CO2 and man made global warming as it pertains to global temperature. They have raised the issue that computer generated prediction models have been inaccurate in predicting temperature patterns because the modeling requires assumptions that have not been shown to be accurate.

Here is a contrarian view from climate scientists who have published climate research results in Nature, which is no small feat:

McNider and Christy are professors of atmospheric science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and fellows of the American Meteorological Society. Mr. Christy was a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore.

It is not a known fact by how much the Earth’s atmosphere will warm in response to this added carbon dioxide. The warming numbers most commonly advanced are created by climate computer models built almost entirely by scientists who believe in catastrophic global warming. The rate of warming forecast by these models depends on many assumptions and engineering to replicate a complex world in tractable terms, such as how water vapor and clouds will react to the direct heat added by carbon dioxide or the rate of heat uptake, or absorption, by the oceans.

We might forgive these modelers if their forecasts had not been so consistently and spectacularly wrong. From the beginning of climate modeling in the 1980s, these forecasts have, on average, always overstated the degree to which the Earth is warming compared with what we see in the real climate.

For instance, in 1994 we published an article in the journal Nature showing that the actual global temperature trend was “one-quarter of the magnitude of climate model results.” As the nearby graph shows, the disparity between the predicted temperature increases and real-world evidence has only grown in the past 20 years.

“Consensus” science that ignores reality can have tragic consequences if cures are ignored or promising research is abandoned. The climate-change consensus is not endangering lives, but the way it imperils economic growth and warps government policy making has made the future considerably bleaker. The recent Obama administration announcement that it would not provide aid for fossil-fuel energy in developing countries, thereby consigning millions of people to energy poverty, is all too reminiscent of the Sick and Health Board denying fresh fruit to dying British sailors.

Another questioner, Dr. Koonin was undersecretary for science in the Energy Department during President Barack Obama’s first term and is currently director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University. His previous positions include professor of theoretical physics and provost at Caltech, as well as chief scientist of BP, where his work focused on renewable and low-carbon energy technologies.

But—here’s the catch—those questions are the hardest ones to answer. They challenge, in a fundamental way, what science can tell us about future climates.

Firstly, even though human influences could have serious consequences for the climate, they are physically small in relation to the climate system as a whole. For example, human additions to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the middle of the 21st century are expected to directly shift the atmosphere’s natural greenhouse effect by only 1% to 2%. Since the climate system is highly variable on its own, that smallness sets a very high bar for confidently projecting the consequences of human influences.

A second challenge to “knowing” future climate is today’s poor understanding of the oceans. The oceans, which change over decades and centuries, hold most of the climate’s heat and strongly influence the atmosphere. Unfortunately, precise, comprehensive observations of the oceans are available only for the past few decades; the reliable record is still far too short to adequately understand how the oceans will change and how that will affect climate.

A third fundamental challenge arises from feedbacks that can dramatically amplify or mute the climate’s response to human and natural influences. One important feedback, which is thought to approximately double the direct heating effect of carbon dioxide, involves water vapor, clouds and temperature.

Climate Science Is Not Settled

Another group questioning what some consider “settled science”:

  • Claude Allegre, former director of the Institute for the Study of the Earth, University of Paris;
  • J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting;
  • Jan Breslow, head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism, Rockefeller University;
  • Roger Cohen, fellow, American Physical Society;
  • Edward David, member, National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences;
  • William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton;
  • Michael Kelly, professor of technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.;
  • William Kininmonth, former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology;
  • Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric sciences, MIT;
  • James McGrath, professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University;
  • Rodney Nichols, former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences;
  • Burt Rutan, aerospace engineer, designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne;
  • Harrison H. Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S. senator;
  • Nir Shaviv, professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem;
  • Henk Tennekes, former director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service;
  • Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva.

Although the number of publicly dissenting scientists is growing, many young scientists furtively say that while they also have serious doubts about the global-warming message, they are afraid to speak up for fear of not being promoted—or worse. They have good reason to worry. In 2003, Dr. Chris de Freitas, the editor of the journal Climate Research, dared to publish a peer-reviewed article with the politically incorrect (but factually correct) conclusion that the recent warming is not unusual in the context of climate changes over the past thousand years. The international warming establishment quickly mounted a determined campaign to have Dr. de Freitas removed from his editorial job and fired from his university position. Fortunately, Dr. de Freitas was able to keep his university job.

This is not the way science is supposed to work, but we have seen it before—for example, in the frightening period when Trofim Lysenko hijacked biology in the Soviet Union. Soviet biologists who revealed that they believed in genes, which Lysenko maintained were a bourgeois fiction, were fired from their jobs. Many were sent to the gulag and some were condemned to death.

Why is there so much passion about global warming, and why has the issue become so vexing that the American Physical Society (APS), from which Dr. Giaever resigned a few months ago, refused the seemingly reasonable request by many of its members to remove the word “incontrovertible” from its description of a scientific issue?

There are several reasons, but a good place to start is the old question
“cui bono?” Or the modern update, “Follow the money.”

 

 

 

 

10 comments

  1. Rafe Champion's avatar
    Rafe Champion · January 14

    The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) was a founding member of the IPCC. Since then the official Met Offices around the world have been hyperactive in spinning “extreme weather events” to maintain the momentum of warming/climate alarmism.

    It is interesting that they neglected one particular kind of extreme weather, namely prolonged periods of very low wind, “wind droughts”, which are known as Dunkelflautes in Europe.

    That became  significant when the rush to net zero prompted the ever-increasing injection of intermittent energy from the sun and wind to the grids of the western world.

    If the planners had been aware of wind droughts they should never have subsidised and mandated sun and wind to displace conventional power.

    Two significant consequences of that decision.

    1. Trillions of dollars spent worldwide to achieve electricity that is more expensive and less reliable with massive damage to the planet.
    2. The creation of a “wind drought trap.”

    The US is in the jaws of the wind drought trap and it remains to be seen if the Trump administration will get them out.

    The power crisis in Texas in February 2021 was a taste of things to come when a bitter cold spell and low winds overnight caused a partial blackout of the state. The inadequately winterised gas supply underperformed and a complete blackout was only narrowly averted.  Hundreds died and a complete blackout could have killed many thousands.

    That is the way things are going in all the grids in the US and in every other system where net zero policies are in place.

    The trap is set slowly over many years as subsidies and mandates for unreliable energy displace conventional power without being able to replace it. There is no way to firm unreliable energy by installing more unreliable energy which is the British and German response.

    The process proceeds towards a “tipping point” when the grid enters a “red zone” where windless nights become dangerous.

    https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/

    There is a “frog in the saucepan” effect because conventional power retires in small steps and that does not cause problems in the early years while there is spare capacity. The trap only causes public alarm when it is too late, as we see in Britain and Germany.

    The US is moving in the same direction and grid managers are becoming increasingly agitated.  Apparently they have not effectively shared their concerns with the general public and there is no electoral pressure on the lawmakers to change course. The incoming administration will have to provide a crash course in wind literacy to change the public perception of wind power and explain the value of coal power, especially in extremely cold conditions.

    The trap closes when the conventional power capacity (traditionally dominated by coal) declines to a critical point, a “tipping point”  where there is not enough to meet the base load overnight. Then the grid is in a “red zone” where windless nights are potentially lethal because there is no wind or solar generation, regardless of the amount of installed capacity.

    The incompetence or negligence of the Government meteorologists around the world allowed this situation to develop because they didn’t issue wind drought warnings even though they know that high pressure systems cause low winds.

    The plot thickens when we discover that the World Meteorological Organization must have known about wind droughts because the first Assessment report of the IPCC recommended a survey of the wind resources of the world to assess the prospects for large-scale wind power. That would have been led by the WMO, working with the official meteorologists around the world.

    Apparently the climate alarmists in the UN set out to wreck the capitalist economies of the west (to save the planet) and they have practically achieved that objective in Britain and Germany where the lights are kept on precariously with imported power while they deindustrialize to reduce demand.

    Australia is on the cusp and it remains to be seen how the old coal burners can keep running for a decade or three until nuclear power may be available at scale.

    Turning to the United States, there is no time to waste to avoid the trap by saving coal and gas generators from the impending EPA regulations that were designed to close them down. 

    Community support for the net zero program must be undermined by explaining the wind drought problem, which makes the energy transition impossible, and the cost of the program, which makes the effort prohibitively expensive. The public need to know that trillions of dollars have been spent to make power more expensive and less reliable, with catastrophic damage to the planet.

    At the same time the meteorologists should be put on the rack and forced to confess that they have been playing a devious game on instructions from the WMO and the United Nations.

    That will justify the termination of financial support to the offending agencies.

    With leadership from the Federal administration and support from red states, a sustained and effective communication campaign could give climate and energy realism a moral ascendancy over the ideological, financial and political interests that support the climate industrial complex.

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  2. Rafe Champion's avatar
    Rafe Champion · January 14

    It is important to note that mariners at sea and millers on land would have known about “Dunkelflautes” for centuries.

    https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf

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    • Ron Clutz's avatar
      Ron Clutz · January 14

      How easily they forget:

      “Military Intelligence” is an oxymoron.

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  6. brianrlcatt's avatar
    brianrlcatt · January 21

    All the scientific measurements and physical laws we know reject the pseudo science narrative of AGW as a significant contribution to climate change, and disprove the predictions of models, that are based on presumptive, partial and biased guesses, not any provable laws, so are wrong, but require some scientific formation to grasp.

    Perhaps this is a simpler way to explain the obvious and deliberate lies of climate alarmists.

    That is this. We are told by these self appointed “experts” that AGW from increased CO2 is the dominant control of current change i. warming, by a tiny 1.5º since the coldest i 10,000 years in 1850, nowhere near a record for the short Holocene warm period of the ice age cyscles.

    nb: This is unlikely, because the change is tiny within the overall scale of the climate control system whose dominant control feedbacks are excluded from their calculations, as if they remain constant when change happens.They don’t. But what actually happens in nature is more telling.

    Simply test the claim that CO2 controls the climate, so more CO2 brings warming, and less brings cooling. Using data anyone can check in the records of ice cores from both poles.

    The Egyptian period , and Holocene period in general, was some 2 degrees Kelvin warmer than now. In the last interglacail period, the Eemian, it was 4 degrees warmer, most of Greenlands ice was lost, and there were Hippopotami in the Thames and Rhine. During both periods the CO2 levels were 280ppm, 1/3 lower than now.

    So it was several degrees hotter when there was a 1/3 less atmospheric CO2.

    CO2 is not a dominant control of climate. QED.

    To keep the rest simple, it is the measured fact that actual warming since 1979, satellite inception time, is 40% of the average prediction of climate models. The predictions of models exaggerate warming by a margin of 150% on average. All of this is copiously supported by the published and repeated tests of measurement.

    So CO2 is not a significant control of climate and the predictions based on the claims of models that attribute all change to increased greenhouse gases are simply wong, because their design is without scientific merit. UN climate orthodoxy is a deceitful religion, unsupported by any real measurable science, following the methods of embedded belief that cannot be questioned, because it cannot be proven true, but can be proven false. Hence no debate of the facts is allowed, because the facts are “clear.”settled”. A claim that is itself the antithesis of scientific method.

    Climate science is produced by inadequate academic liars, hiding behind the facades of compromised Universities, funded to “prove” a political agenda in models that do not adequately or accurately represent the Earth’s climate system. Climate action is an entirely political fraud, designed to create, and is creating, the economic destruction of the 1st World developed economies which depend on cheap, plentiful energy. Energy that the weak, expensive and intermittent energy sources of prescribed alternatives to fossil fuel can never deliver, while the Asian beneficiaries of this suicidal regulation overtake the advanced nations, with no such limitations on their energy use.

    There is nothing decent, honest or truthful, particularly not their pseudo scientific methods, about the claims of climate crisis or emergency. The claims for this, such as the CO2 controls the climate warnings of fact checkers described above, are demonstrably false. This should tell you all you need to know about how deeply the academic, political and media systems have been compromised by the elites behind this deceitful political engineering, mostly by control of funding and senior appointments. The long march through the institutions by the marxist politicians behind the UN IPCC, which has been a well documented work in progress for at least 4 decades, since the Club of Rome was formed in the 1960’s. .

    There is no climate emergency. There is an energy emergency, created in its name, as above.

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