Arctic Ice March Maximum 2025 in Perspective

The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, then overcome by 2024.

Climatology takes the March monthly average to indicate the annual maximum and September average as the minimum.  Dynamically, the Arctic gains and loses ice extents in this pattern:

The values in the chart are the month ending ice extents (last five days average) minus the ice extents at end of the previous month.  Thus positive numbers show ice gained each month, negative numbers ice lost in a given month.  SII (Sea Ice Index) provides a data file calculating and updating these results since 1980. Note that the peak month of March on average declines very slightly, while the minimum month of September on average gains a little ice extent.  Also the greatest average gain of ice is in October and the greatest loss of extent is in July.

Above is a chart of March Monthly averages since 2007. The variability shows, including 2024 well above the 19-year average and 2025 well below.

This graph shows variations of ice extents during March, on average and for some recent years along with 2007.  The exceptional extents in 2024 stand out, along with the more typical 2021 and 2007.  On average during March the Arctic loses about 400k km2 of ice.  2025 started March at 14M km2, about 900k km2 in deficit, and ended virtually the same 14M, 600k km2 below average on day 90. SII was slightly lower than MASIE for three weeks, then ended about the same.

The table below shows the distribution of ice extents across the Arctic regions.

Region 2025090 Ave Day 090 2025-Ave. 2007090 2025-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14011379 14617665 -606287 14222916 -211537
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1071001 1070241 760 1069711 1290
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965989 964237 1752 966006 -17
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1086266 871 1074908 12229
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897098 747 884340 13505
 (5) Kara_Sea 885597 920703 -35106 892157 -6560
 (6) Barents_Sea 450824 664324 -213500 441970 8854
 (7) Greenland_Sea 703578 665146 38433 686312 17266
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1350818 1386137 -35320 1217467 133351
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854878 853269 1609 850127 4751
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1255273 5631 1229995 30908
 (11) Central_Arctic 3237488 3234612 2876 3242236.7 -4749
 (12) Bering_Sea 593465 711340 -117875 814787.71 -221323
 (13) Baltic_Sea 20341 62183 -41842 45896.93 -25556
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 628758 836750 -207992 794657 -165899

Overall 2025 Arctic ice is 4% below the 19 year average and 1% below 2007.  About half of the 606k km2 deficit is in the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk, typically the first to go to open water. The other major case of early melting is in the Atlantic Barents Sea.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post Ocean Warms, Land Cools UAH February 2025.

 

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_level

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