Unforeseen Climate Debates Coming

The Trump administration is rolling out nominees for various cabinet positions and the transition team is submitting questions to federal departments required for their due diligence prior to the handover of executive responsibility.

All this is normal procedure, yet the climate establishment is going ballistic. The Progress websites have gone into overdrive, led by Podesta and funded by Soros and Steyer. It is a massive outpouring of articles intended to inflame and incite outrage against anything the Trumpers are up to in taking up their mandate.

Other alarmists are producing reports like this recent one: Trump’s transition: sceptics guide every agency dealing with climate change, from the Guardian (here).  In all such communications, the appointees are profiled, and denigrated:

Trump has assembled a transition team in which at least nine senior members deny basic scientific understanding that the planet is warming due to the burning of carbon and other human activity. These include the transition heads of all the key agencies responsible for either monitoring or dealing with climate change. None of these transition heads have any background in climate science.

Trump has also nominated Oklahoma attorney general Scott Pruitt to lead the EPA and is expected to pick congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers to head the interior department. Pruitt has claimed that scientists “continue to disagree” about the causes and extent of global warming while McMorris Rodgers has said that former vice-president Al Gore, who has championed climate action, “deserves an ‘F’ in science.”

Time for Climatists to Put Up or Shut Up

Amazingly, these long-entitled activists are blind to the opportunity now presented to them. For many years, climate alarmists have refused to debate the science of their position, declaring that the “science is settled.” People like John Christy suggested that there could be at least a little funding for “red teams” to present the counter view to IPCC consensus science. All was for naught when true believers were in power.

Now there will be roundtable discussions at the highest levels of powerful departments and agencies, such as Energy, Interior, NASA, and EPA. If the incoming powers-to-be are uneducated in climate science, let those concerned about global warming make their case, show their facts, convince skeptical people through reason and persuasion. It is now time to put up or shut up. It is exactly the wrong time to be appealing to emotions and trying to stir up craziness. Moral indignation and trash-talking the other side is the opposite of engaging in discussion and debate over what is claimed to be an essential issue of our times.

We may yet have the great climate debates so long avoided by those convinced they had all the answers and the others should just trust them. If climatists have something reasonable to say and not just fear and bullying, it is time to step up to the plate.

As Greg Sorrell writes at the Federalist (here), the Trump administration is right to take emotion out of climate policy.

One of the last formal debates was prior to 2009 Copenhagen COP. Pre-debate the audience was 61% Pro and 39% Con on the premise: Climate change is mankind’s defining crisis, and demands a commensurate response. Post-debate, it was 53% Pro and 47% Con.  With such results occurring frequently, climatists stopped participating.

Political Climate Action

The current world political climate is shame-and-blame in order to gain approvals for the Paris accord. Thus pressure is applied to political officials at every level to show their colors on acting to “fight climate change.”

For example, Hillary declared to great applause: “I believe in Science.” (I don’t know where to start on that.) This week Canada PM Trudeau announced he would impose a federal carbon tax of $10 a tonne starting in 2018, rising to $50 a tonne in 2022 on any province that did not enact its own equivalent carbon pricing. Several provincial premiers walked out at that point, disappointed that collaboration and consensus-building had only one predetermined outcome.

There is no place to hide these days, and politicians who have a rational position on climate science (in contrast to Hillary) had better legislate on the issue. A common sense legislative motion could read something like this (followed by supporting documentation and references).

Whereas, Extent of global sea ice is at or above historical averages;

Whereas, Populations of polar bears are generally growing;

Whereas, Sea levels have been slowly rising at the same rate since the Little Ice Age ended 150 years ago;

Whereas, Oceans will not become acidic due to buffering from extensive mineral deposits and marine life is well adapted to pH fluctuations that do occur;

Whereas, Extreme weather events have not increased in recent decades and such events are more associated to periods of cooling rather than warming;

Whereas, Cold spells, not heat waves, are the greater threat to human life and prosperity;

Therefore, This chamber agrees that climate is variable and prudent public officials should plan for future periods both colder and warmer than the present. Two principle objectives will be robust infrastructure and reliable, affordable energy.

Comment:

The underlying issue is the assumption that the future can only be warmer than the present. Once you accept the notion that CO2 makes the earth’s surface warmer (an unproven conjecture), then temperatures can only go higher since CO2 keeps rising. The present plateau in temperatures is inconvenient, but actual cooling would directly contradict the CO2 doctrine. Some excuses can be fabricated for a time, but an extended period of cooling undermines the whole global warming mantra.

It’s not a matter of fearing a new ice age. That will come eventually, according to our planet’s history, but the warning will come from increasing ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere. Presently infrastructures in many places are not ready to meet a return of 1950s weather, let alone something unprecedented.

Public policy must include preparations for cooling since that is the greater hazard. Cold harms the biosphere: plants, animals and humans. And it is expensive and energy intensive to protect life from the ravages of cold. Society can not afford to be in denial about the prospect of the current temperature plateau ending with cooling.

Footnote:

The Trudeau initiative is an example of the alternative to legislating a rational position. It is virtue-signalling by adopting a token carbon price, which will not lower CO2 concentrations, nor reduce temperatures. The tax will enrich government coffers, which is a key motivation for politicians hiding behind this noble cause.

In 2015, gasoline taxes in Canada represented on average 38.5 cents per litre, which is approximately 35% of the pump price. That includes 10¢/litre federal tax, provincial fuel taxes ranging from 6 to 19 ¢/litre, plus sales taxes. Taxing at $10 a tonne starting in 2018 would add a carbon tax on top as shown below:

Fuel Type UNITS FOR TAX 2018 Added Tax
Gasoline ¢/litre 2.22
Diesel (light fuel oil) ¢/litre 2.56
Jet Fuel ¢/litre 2.61
Natural Gas ¢/litre 1.90
Propane ¢/litre 1.54
Coal – high heat value $/tonne 20.77
Coal – low heat value $/tonne 17.77

These pennies added on top will not change behavior, but millions of consumers’ dollars will be skimmed in a hidden way, including rising transportation costs of everything.

If this was anything other than a tax grab, they would do one or both of two things:

  • Make the tax revenue neutral by paying the monies collected back to consumers; and
  • Make the increases in the carbon tax rate conditional upon rising temperatures as measured by satellites. (as proposed by economist Ross McKitrick)

fuel-tax

Making the Climate Case

This post is to highlight two recent high quality documents making the case against climate alarms. These are important additions to anyone’s library of climate science resources.

Jamal Munshi has published papers on atmospheric ozone, and as a professor emeritus is free to speak his mind on the UN Environmental Program. His paper is entitled The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy 

He provides the history of the UN’s self-serving growth by exploiting two false alarms, first the “ozone hole”, and then “climate change.” The story needs to be remembered and retold against the tide of alarming claims. Since this paper is posted at Tallbloke’s Talkshop, it will likely be part of the intellectual framework for the rising CLEXIT campaign.

Synopsis of The United Nations: An Unconstrained Bureaucracy

The case study takes a close look at the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) by tracing its history from its humble and noble beginnings to the phenomenal growth in size, wealth, reach, and power of this taxpayer funded public sector bureaucracy.

Ozone Depletion:
For the UNEP to achieve its ambition of being the EPA for the world it needed a global catastrophic pollution problem which it could tackle and clean up just as the EPA had cleaned up the air and water in the USA. A series of events that began in the 1970s and culminated in 1985 provided them with just such an opportunity.

In view of the data presented here and in the prior studies we would like to think that the theory of ozone depletion by HHC and the ban on HHC to save the ozone layer are derived from bad science by good people who felt that they had to act quickly in accordance with the precautionary principle. However, because of the enormous gains made by the UNEP in implementing a program to solve a nonexistent problem and in view of a history of corrupt practices at the UN (Zaruk, 2014) (Ball, 2015) (Lynch, 2006) (Schaefer, 2012) (Dewar, 1995) (Rossett, 2006) (Rossett, 2008), intentional fraud and corruption for financial and bureaucratic gains by the United Nations cannot be ruled out.

Planetary Environmentalism: Climate Change
For the UNEP the frightening new global warming and climate change narrative served as yet another planetary air pollution crisis in which it could seize global leadership and grow in terms of size, funding, and power at the expense of taxpayers in donor countries. In this case, the global “air pollutant” was identified as the unnatural and extraneous new carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels. The UNEP responded to the events of 1988 almost immediately. It saw its opportunity and seized it having tasted great success in this kind of situation in the case of HHC pollution and ozone depletion.

The IPCC AR reports are biased. They are primarily concerned with selling the idea of climate change calamity and its mitigation by emission reduction. .Their use of science is limited to its utility in supporting that primary purpose. The bias in IPCC AR documents is documented in a 2010 commentary by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency which took it upon itself to audit the IPCC AR4 WG2 forecasts and concluded that “The IPCC systematically favors adverse outcomes in a way that goes beyond serving the needs of policymakers.” (PBL, 2010). . .Yet another independent audit of the IPCC AR4 was carried out in 2011 by the Inter Academy Council (IAC), an international scientific body. The deficiencies are enumerated below. . . 

From the Summary:
They sold fear of catastrophic global warming and climate change allegedly caused by fossil fuel emissions but failed to duplicate their success in the first episode (ozone depletion) because of methodological flaws and also because their own bureaucratic incompetence created an emissions reduction plan that was too complicated to implement. The complication ensures an endless series of annual meetings of thousands of delegates at exotic locations with the only concrete achievement of each meeting being that of setting the date and place for the next meeting.

These episodes serve as evidence that unconstrained and undisciplined public sector bureaucracies do not serve the interest of the public. We conclude that such UN bureaucracies can safely be dismantled without any harm to the public interest.

The second document is a well-reasoned, well-referenced submission by CEI and allies Coalition Letter against the Council on Environmental Quality’s Draft Guidance on consideration of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change effects in enivronmental (NEPA) Reviews. The Final Guidance has just been proclaimed by the White House, despite the strong evidence presented in their submission.

Synopsis of Coalition Letter Against the CEQ Guidance for Environmental Reviews

National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review is an inappropriate framework for making climate policy. Project-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should not be a factor determining whether agencies grant or deny permits for individual projects. The Guidance endorses the alarmist perspective of EPA’s GHG endangerment finding, instructs agencies to quantify indirect (upstream and downstream) as well as direct emissions of individual projects, and recommends the use of social cost of carbon (SCC) calculations in cost-benefit analysis of projects. Each of those elements separately, and especially all in combination, will embolden anti-development groups and politicize rather than improve agency decisions. The Draft Guidance should be withdrawn. A summary of key points follows.(Full text includes extensive supporting evidence)

1.EPA’s greenhouse gas endangerment finding is an inappropriate starting point for project-related environmental risk assessments.

2. NEPA review of project-related GHG emissions will politicize, not improve, agency decisions.

3. Incorporating social cost of carbon (SCC) analysis will turn NEPA review into a pseudo-science.

Conclusion
NEPA review is an inappropriate basis for determining climate change policy, and project-related GHG emissions should not be a factor determining whether agencies grant or deny permits for individual projects.

The Draft Guidance instructs agencies to incorporate analysis of project-related GHG emissions and climate effects in NEPA reviews. That will embolden anti-development groups and politicize rather than improve agency decisions. The Draft Guidance should be withdrawn.

Circling the Climate Wagons

What to make of this recent Report (here):

An Australian university recently censured marine scientist Paul Ridd for “failing to act in a collegial way and in the academic spirit of the institution,” because he questioned popular claims among environmentalists about coral reefs and global warming.

To understand what is going on, some background in organizational sociology is helpful.

In past decades, researchers looking into organizational behavior concluded that the internal discipline inside the organization had to be stronger than the threats or enticements outside. Thus, an army has high regimentation and command drilling in order that soldiers follow orders and perform in the face of armed enemies trying to kill them. Police units operate in hostile environments and rely on similar training and disciplines.

Slightly different examples include missionaries seeking to convert heathens, without themselves losing their beliefs, religous practices or ethics when surrounded by people of another culture.

When it comes to corporations, most of them have sales departments who have a special camaraderie and rituals that keep them pitching skeptical customers in the face of rejection and losing trades to competitors.

All this is context for recognizing that many scientists in the present research funding market operate as salesmen in order to protect and enhance their revenue streams. If they are prone to exaggerated claims, that goes with the role and territory. And if they are called to account for not having the back of fellow salesmen, that is also to be expected.

The behavior of climate scientists at James Cook University is a case of sales managers attacking the credentials of someone undermining their claims and threatening to dispel the fears upon which government funding is based.

Sadly, this is further evidence of the degradation of climate science, which has been thoroughly vetted by Richard Lindzen:  Climate Science Was Broken

 

India: Show Us the Climate Money

Playing his cards close to the vest, India’s prime minister first promised they would soon ratify the Paris accord, then said the climate reparation money must be on the table first.  Details are at GWPF:

INDIA LINKS RATIFICATION OF PARIS AGREEMENT TO CLIMATE FINANCE, DENIES IT WILL RATIFY DEAL THIS YEAR

The climate charade reminds me of what Russians said privately during the Soviet era:  “We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay.”

cg565e788a82606

Dr. Arnd Bernaerts Disappeared

As happened in Soviet Russia, Climate revisionists are rewriting history. Judith Curry was one of 20 leading climate scientists according to the “Climate Council” based in Australia. But in March 2016, the list was reduced to 19, and Dr Curry disappeared (here).

Now the biography of Arnd Bernaerts has disappeared from Wikipedia, despite his obvious contributions to ocean science and law. UN Undersecretary-General Satya N. Nandan: “Mr Bernaerts has given to the international community an invaluable guide to the understanding and implementation of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.” (1988).

Most likely the revisionists are unhappy with Bernaerts’ coining of phrases such as these:

Climate is the continuation of oceans by other means.

Oceans govern climate.

And his writings are extensive and contemporary, as noted on this blog under the category Oceans Make Climate, inspired by my discovery of his work:
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/oceans-matter-reflecting-on-writings-by-dr-arnd-bernaerts/

You can do something against the efforts of alarmists such as William Connolley by responding to Dr. Bernaerts here.

The Deleted Biography is here.