The MASIE image of Arctic ice extent from yesterday shows 4.5M km2, which has persisted for the last 3 days.  Day 247 is just 13 days short of the most frequent day of annual minimum.  So this is the crunch time in the annual battle between the ocean water and ice.  The decline of ice extent is shown below since August 15 (August being the month of greatest loss of ice).

It shows that 2016 extent dipped below 4.4M, but has been steady at 4.5 M for the first 3 days of Sept. and is close to 2015 at this point.  SII is showing ~300k km2 less ice than MASIE in Sept. The table below shows ice extents in the regions:

Region	2016247	2015247	Difference
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4517221	4594179	-76958
(1) Beaufort_Sea	283557	493132	-209575
(2) Chukchi_Sea	392413	236968	155445
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	175341	331333	-155992
(4) Laptev_Sea	383872	59062	324810
(5) Kara_Sea	8023	8196	-174
(6) Barents_Sea	217	126	90
(7) Greenland_Sea	158466	151300	7166
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	13984	73188	-59205
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	242154	247177	-5023
(10) Hudson_Bay	239	51561	-51322
(11) Central_Arctic	2858376	2941319	-82944

Note that Baffin and Hudson Bays are much lower this year, but they have little left to lose compared to 2016.  The rest of the seas have offsetting surpluses and deficits in different places.  The most significant issue is Central Arctic being lower than last year, which may foretell a lower September monthly minimum.  Time will tell.

Summary of Year To Date

Someone asked how the annual average ice extent was coming along this year, so I crunched the numbers.

The graph summarizes the changing extents of Arctic ice as measured by two primary datasets: MASIE (Multi-sensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent) and SII (Sea Ice Index -solely from satellite passive microwave sensors).

Measured in M km2, the two highest lines are the monthly average extents reported for the first 8 months of 2016. The two horizontal lines show the YTD average from the 8 months. At the bottom are the deviations from 10 yr. Averages for each month (from each dataset).

It is clear that MASIE was reporting slightly more ice early on, and then the two estimates have been close together since. The deviation below average grew up through May, with SII reporting 1M km2 deficit. As of August, both MASIE and SII are showing ice extent down about 0.5M km2.

The 10 yr. Averages of extents for the YTD (8 months) are exactly 12M km2 in both datasets. So Masie YTD is ~3% below average and SII YTD is ~5% down.

Summary

There will be much to do about Arctic ice death spirals in the weeks ahead as 2016 continues to show lower extents. Most likely the September average will be lower than last year, an event lasting perhaps 2-3 weeks before refreezing brings it back over last year’s minimum. Only someone pushing an agenda would claim such a short phenomenon contained within a single month of the year shows the climate is changing.

For more on making sense of Arctic Ice graphs see Ice House of Mirrors

For those who want to see numbers, the table is below.

Monthly	2006-2015	2016	2006-2015	2016	2016	2016-10yr Ave	2016-10yr Ave
Averages	MASIE	MASIE	SII	SII	SII Deficit	MASIE	SII
Jan	13.872	13.922	13.780	13.472	-0.450	0.049	-0.308
Feb	14.785	14.804	14.632	14.210	-0.593	0.019	-0.422
Mar	15.008	14.769	14.886	14.405	-0.364	-0.239	-0.481
Apr	14.308	13.917	14.307	13.694	-0.223	-0.391	-0.613
May	12.767	12.086	12.960	11.900	-0.186	-0.681	-1.060
June	10.952	10.419	11.192	10.353	-0.066	-0.533	-0.839
July	8.401	8.067	8.421	7.920	-0.147	-0.334	-0.501
Aug	6.066	5.531	5.838	5.390	-0.141	-0.535	-0.448
YTD Ave.	12.020	11.689	12.002	11.418	-0.271	-0.331	-0.584

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are nearing the end of the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September 16 or so.  Early on, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, lower in May and narrowing the gap late June and late July. Note: 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with El Nino over, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO has been hovering around neutral, now possibly indicating cloud cover reducing the pace of melting.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

Footnote:  Regarding the colder than normal water in the North Atlantic

A 2016 article for EOS is entitled Atlantic Sea Ice Could Grow in the Next Decade

Changing ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could lead to winter sea ice coverage remaining steady and even growing in select regions.

The researchers analyzed simulations from the Community Earth System Model, modeling both atmosphere and ocean circulation. They found that decadal-scale trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are largely explained by changes in ocean circulation rather than by large-scale external factors like anthropogenic warming.

From the Abstract of Yeager et al.

We present evidence that the extreme negative trends in Arctic winter sea-ice extent in the late 1990s were a predictable consequence of the preceding decade of persistent positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and associated spin-up of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Initialized forecasts made with the Community Earth System Model decadal prediction system indicate that relatively low rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation in recent years will result in a continuation of a THC spin-down that began more than a decade ago. Consequently, projected 10-year trends in winter Arctic winter sea-ice extent seem likely to be much more positive than has recently been observed, with the possibility of actual decadal growth in Atlantic sea-ice in the near future.

Someone asked how the annual average ice extent was coming along this year, so I crunched the numbers.

The graph summarizes the changing extents of Arctic ice as measured by two primary datasets: MASIE (Multi-sensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent) and SII (Sea Ice Index -solely from satellite passive microwave sensors).

Measured in M km2, the two highest lines are the monthly average extents reported for the first 8 months of 2016. The two horizontal lines show the YTD average from the 8 months. At the bottom are the deviations from 10 yr. Averages for each month (from each dataset).

It is clear that MASIE was reporting slightly more ice early on, and then the two estimates have been close together since. The deviation below average grew up through May, with SII reporting 1M km2 deficit. As of August, both MASIE and SII are showing ice extent down about 0.5M km2.

The 10 yr. Averages of extents for the YTD (8 months) are exactly 12M km2 in both datasets. So Masie YTD is ~3% below average and SII YTD is ~5% down.

Summary

There will be much to do about Arctic ice death spirals in the weeks ahead as 2016 continues to show lower extents. Most likely the September average will be lower than last year, an event lasting perhaps 2-3 weeks before refreezing brings it back over last year’s minimum. Only someone pushing an agenda would claim such a short phenomenon contained within a single month of the year shows the climate is changing.

For more on making sense of Arctic Ice graphs see Ice House of Mirrors

For those who want to see numbers, the table is below.

Monthly	2006-2015	2016	2006-2015	2016	2016	2016-10yr Ave	2016-10yr Ave
Averages	MASIE	MASIE	SII	SII	SII Deficit	MASIE	SII
Jan	13.872	13.922	13.780	13.472	-0.450	0.049	-0.308
Feb	14.785	14.804	14.632	14.210	-0.593	0.019	-0.422
Mar	15.008	14.769	14.886	14.405	-0.364	-0.239	-0.481
Apr	14.308	13.917	14.307	13.694	-0.223	-0.391	-0.613
May	12.767	12.086	12.960	11.900	-0.186	-0.681	-1.060
June	10.952	10.419	11.192	10.353	-0.066	-0.533	-0.839
July	8.401	8.067	8.421	7.920	-0.147	-0.334	-0.501
Aug	6.066	5.531	5.838	5.390	-0.141	-0.535	-0.448
YTD Ave.	12.020	11.689	12.002	11.418	-0.271	-0.331	-0.584

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are nearing the end of the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September 16 or so.  Early on, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, lower in May and narrowing the gap late June and late July. Note: 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with El Nino over, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO has been hovering around neutral, now possibly indicating cloud cover reducing the pace of melting.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

Footnote:  Regarding the colder than normal water in the North Atlantic

A 2016 article for EOS is entitled Atlantic Sea Ice Could Grow in the Next Decade

Changing ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could lead to winter sea ice coverage remaining steady and even growing in select regions.

The researchers analyzed simulations from the Community Earth System Model, modeling both atmosphere and ocean circulation. They found that decadal-scale trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are largely explained by changes in ocean circulation rather than by large-scale external factors like anthropogenic warming.

From the Abstract of Yeager et al.

We present evidence that the extreme negative trends in Arctic winter sea-ice extent in the late 1990s were a predictable consequence of the preceding decade of persistent positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and associated spin-up of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Initialized forecasts made with the Community Earth System Model decadal prediction system indicate that relatively low rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation in recent years will result in a continuation of a THC spin-down that began more than a decade ago. Consequently, projected 10-year trends in winter Arctic winter sea-ice extent seem likely to be much more positive than has recently been observed, with the possibility of actual decadal growth in Atlantic sea-ice in the near future.

This is another post in a series that has become a kind of remote travelogue, seeing from afar some of what the passengers and crew of Crystal Serenity are experiencing in their voyage through the North West Passage. Consistent with the theme of this blog, today again we note a place of unusual scientific interest.

Of course, all these places were originally discovered by intrepid explorers over more than a century since Amundsen first recorded his transit 1903 to 1906. All told, there have been officially 236 successful crossings, which count excludes the many who lost their lives failed attempts.

The image shows that Northabout continues slowly toward her next port of Tuktoyaktuk NWT Canada. Unless something unforeseen occurs, she should be able to pass through the open waters in the southern channels.

Meanwhile, Serenity is positioned at Dundas Harbour just east of Croker Bay of Devon Island. The ship is located near the mouth of Baffin Bay, the body of water between Greenland and Nunavut.

Devon Island Nunavut Largest Uninhabited Island in the World

An outpost was established at Dundas Harbour in August 1924 as part of a government presence intended to curb foreign whaling and other activity. Hudson’s Bay Company leased the outpost in 1933. The following year, 52 Inuit were relocated from Cape Dorset to Dundas Harbour but they returned to the mainland 13 years later.

Dundas Harbour was populated again in the late 1940s to maintain a patrol presence, but it was closed again in 1951 due to ice difficulties. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police detachment was moved to Craig Harbour on southern Ellesmere Island.

Only the ruins of a few buildings remain, along with one of the northernmost cemeteries in the world.

Haughton Crater Devon Island Mars Analog

A team of scientists led by MARS project scientist Dr. Pascal Lee of NASA Ames Research Center identified a new Mars analog site of high promise: the 20 km-diameter Haughton Meteorite Impact Crater and its surroundings on Devon Island, in the Canadian High Arctic. Haughton is a site of much interest because it appears to present not just one or a few potential Mars analog features, but an astonishing variety of these.

More information at Mars Arctic Research Station

August 31 Commentary

The tracking shows Northabout is struggling with some heavy seas and making slow progress toward her next port Tuktoyaktuk NWT Canada.

Today Serenity has been stationed for some hours off an obscure bay of Prince of Wales Island. Coningham Bay has nothing at all to recommend it except:

And in 2013, an explorer created these images and commentary:

This was the scene at Coningham Bay, a shallow, broad bay with a shoal or sandbar extending across much of the entrance, protecting the waters inside. We were anchored just outside of the sheltered sub-bay.

From the very start, we had occasionally been seeing polar bears in the water, on shore and wandering the low hills. Polar bears are typically solitary, so during the summer months the only occasion on which you are likely to see more than one at a time is when there are a mother and cub.

Bears also typically hunt from the ice edge, so their being there on a quiet bay with no ice in sight was unusual, too. Something very special was going on.

Thanks to Mark Grantham for Belugas and bears in the far north

Aug 30 Report Below

Today the tracking shows Northabout is east of Barrow Alaska, having completed the North East Passage, and heading for NWP. Serenity is ahead of them, having left port at Cambridge Bay Nunavut and presently in the Victoria Strait.  The cruise tracker has 3 passenger ships in that area. Given that Serenity’s next scheduled port is Pond Inlet in Baffin Bay on Sept. 4, I’m guessing Serenity is the one in McClintock channel positioned for a visit to nearby Taloyoak.

Taloyoak – ᑕᓗᕐᔪᐊᕐᒃ – ‘Large caribou hunting blind’

Taloyoak (population 850) is located on the southwestern coast of Boothia Peninsula at the Northwest Passage. It is the northernmost community on Canada’s mainland. Taloyoak enjoys constant 24-hour sunshine from May 17 to July 27. The sea ice usually breaks up in June. Summer temperatures range from 5°C to 20°C. The snow begins to fall in late September or early October. Winter days have four hours of daylight and temperatures that range from -15°C to -35°C. With winter wind chill it can feel like -50°C.

The local people are Netsilik Inuit descendants of the ancient Thule culture. The hamlet name of ‘Taloyoak’ means ‘large caribou hunting blind’ in Inuktitut. These screens were built with piled stones along the caribou migration routes. Muskoxen are also found near here and the fishing is some of the best in Nunavut. The Netsilingmiut women of Taloyoak have distinctive clothing. Their amautiit (traditional parkas) are often brilliantly coloured, fringed and beaded, plus they are famous for their handmade ‘packing dolls,’ which are very popular. Artistically unique Taloyoak carvings made from stone, whalebone, caribou antler and walrus ivory frequently depict mystical subjects of ancient Inuit legend.

Taloyoak soapstone carving

Background on North West Passage

The man in charge of Serenity, Capt. Birger Vorland, has spent 38 years at sea. Vorland, who is originally from Norway, says the Northwest Passage has special meaning.

“My countryman, Roald Amundsen, did the first transit here between 1903 and 1906,” Vorland says. “We’re going to do it in 32 days and in a lot more comfort.”

The official record of transits through the North West Passage is kept at the Scott Polar Research Institute (here).  The listing begins with that first transit by Amundsen and provides details of the 236 crossings recorded through 2015.  13 ships passed through the NWP last year, and the highest number was 29 in 2013.

Cambridge Bay is partway through the NWP and will be home for the new Canadian High Arctic Research Station, pictured in the foreground above. The CHARS campus is expected to be operational in July of 2017 and fully complete by March of 2018.

The image also shows that the southern route through the Archipelago is mostly open water at this time, and the outlook is good for both Serenity and Northabout to achieve their itineraries. The most interesting section of the Nunavut gauntlet lies in Victoria Strait and McClintock channel.

Arctic ice extents are declining as usual approaching the last 2-3 weeks of the annual melt season.  Estimates are fluctuating a lot due both to drift ice moving around, and also the difficulty of measuring under cloudy and darkening conditions.  The after effects of the recent sizable Arctic cyclone appear in the chart below.

 

The table below compares 2015 and 2016 at day 240.  This year is slightly lower, largely due to Beaufort Sea.  Losses elsewhere in Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, Hudson Bay and E. Siberian are more than offset by surpluses in Chukchi, Laptev and Central Arctic.  Note that several seas that are down provide more open water for the ships exploring NWP this year.

Presently 2016 ice decline is running 3 days ahead of 2015.

Region	2016240	2015240	Difference
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4799401	4972160	-172759
(1) Beaufort_Sea	325257	597329	-272072
(2) Chukchi_Sea	418423	289433	128991
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	237311	332785	-95474
(4) Laptev_Sea	405208	81071	324137
(5) Kara_Sea	28704	10133	18571
(6) Barents_Sea	0	701	-701
(7) Greenland_Sea	120256	207476	-87220
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	20965	140815	-119850
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	258978	301788	-42810
(10) Hudson_Bay	7308	67369	-60061
(11) Central_Arctic	2976412	2942427	33984

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For background on Polar Ocean Challenge see Laptev Wall and Nunavut Gauntlet.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

I was once told by a fellow cruise passenger not to call our ship a boat.  He said in the Navy they knew if you were in a boat it meant something awful had happened to your ship.