Arctic Ice Hockey Stick August 2021

Arctic2021235 w HS

The graph above shows August daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents decline ~2M km2 from ~6.8M km2 down to ~4.8M km2.  The Hockey Stick shape refers to the 2021 cyan MASIE line starting ~227k km2 below average but matching average by day 230, and in the last five days produced a surplus of 414k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit and also matched MASIE average day 230, but tracking the downward average since.  2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the summer melt.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region 2021235 Day 235 Average 2021-Ave. 2007235 2021-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 5745634 5331499 414135 5309870 435765
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 872981 605537 267444 730813 142168
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 539676 329819 209856 178493 361182
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 508990 445221 63769 63523 445468
 (4) Laptev_Sea 61548 205077 -143529 295384 -233836
 (5) Kara_Sea 136181 58898 77283 155754 -19573
 (6) Barents_Sea 6047 24071 -18025 17998 -11951
 (7) Greenland_Sea 84815 202922 -118108 334622 -249808
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 40877 33602 7275 50303 -9426
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 465781 354257 111524 323329 142452
 (10) Hudson_Bay 64148 35761 28387 61078 3070
 (11) Central_Arctic 2964500 3035379 -70879 3097316 -132816

The overall surplus to average is 414k km2, (8%).  Note large surpluses of ice in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas).  Meanwhile Laptev on the Russian coast melted out early, as has Greenland Sea.  Kara and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) are holding considerable ice.  We are about a month away from the annual minimum mid September, but at this point it appears that extents will be greater than the last two years.



Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.


  1. HiFast · August 24, 2021

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.


  2. oldbrew · August 26, 2021

    Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
    It will be interesting to see what, if anything much, happens when solar minimum finally fades and the sunspot numbers pick up.


  3. Pingback: Arctic Ice Hockey Stick August 2021 – Climate-
  4. Jack broughton · August 27, 2021

    Ron, did you see the article in TheEngineer today about the use of AI to predict arctic ice futures?

    If so, is it sensible?

    Best regards,
    Jack broughton.


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