Arctic Ice Abounds October 2021


The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 304 (end of October) for the years 2012 through yesterday 2021.  Note the variability from year to year on the CanAm (left side) with the Beaufort Sea at the top, Canadian Archipelago center left, and Baffin Bay, lower left between Greenland and Newfoundland. More noticeable are the Russian shelf seas fluctuations on the right side.  Some years, like 2020, there is still open water, but this year those seas are frozen over, including from the top Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas down to bottom right.

The graph below shows October daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during October on average Arctic ice extents increase ~3.4M km2 from ~4.9M km2 up to ~8.3M km2.  The 2021 cyan MASIE line started the month ~500k km2 above average and on day 304 retained a surplus of ~160k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit, then lagged behind in the last two weeks, before ending ~100k km2 lower than MASIE. 2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the ice recovery.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 304 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region 2021304 Day 304 Average 2021-Ave. 2020304 2021-2020
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 8528046 8369146 158900 6954249 1573797
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 982244 946489 35755 1044967 -62723
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 659384 436299 223085 369981 289403
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1086959 909416 177543 373761 713197
 (4) Laptev_Sea 894716 831110 63606 283776 610940
 (5) Kara_Sea 626536 444754 181781 269583 356952
 (6) Barents_Sea 55711 77133 -21422 14206 41505
 (7) Greenland_Sea 360759 415579 -54820 463525 -102766
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 107176 269121 -161945 232788 -125611
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 557042 788762 -231720 802238 -245196
 (10) Hudson_Bay 5061 82352 -77292 73773 -68712
 (11) Central_Arctic 3160959 3158164 2794 3023876 137083

The overall surplus to average is 159k km2, (2%).  Note large surpluses of ice in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas).  as well as in Laptev and Kara on the Russian coast. The main deficits to average are in Baffin Bay and CAA, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere. Note that 2021 ice extent exceeds that of 2020 by 1.6M km2, most of the difference being in East Siberian, Laptev and Kara Seas.


Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

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