The chart above from DMI shows why Arctic ice is melting slowly. This year the daily mean temperature never went below freezing, From now on it will only grow colder.  August is significant because it is the last month that NH ice extent declines.  Those familar with the datasets know that March monthly average is taken as the annual maximum ice extent, and September monthly average serves as the annual minimum. Importantly both months are neutral, i.e. the ice extent values are nearly the same at the month start and  end.  All the melting occurs April to August, all the freezing October to February.

[ It reminds me what a Saskatchewan grain farmer told me: “Around here we only have AAA farmers”. I asked what he meant and he replied: “April to August and then Arizona.”]

The arctic ice extents are now reported through August 15, 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex had hampered ice formation with incursions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This factor receded in May and June, with July and August extents closing the gap with the averages. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) goes through the Russian shelf seas of Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas on the way to Bering Strait in Beaufort Sea.

The image from  August 15 shows the Arctic Ocean core is still solid, while parts of the Eurasian NSR have open water on the left vertical side. Ice persists in Laptev (top left) and Chukchi (bottom Left).  As usual in August, Hudson Bay (bottom right) is full open water, as is Baffin Bay (middle right).  At this point Canadian Archipelago has opened up the eastern end of the NW passage, but still has extensive fast ice in Beaufort sea (bottom center)

The chart below shows the 20-year Mid August averages for Arctic ice extents, along with 2026, 2025 and 2007 as well as SII v.4. Note that on average during this period 2.4M km2 of ice extent is lost. In August, MASIE tracked average throughout, before showing surplus ice the last week.  SII v.4 continues to greatly underestimate Arctic ice extent, ending this period  0.73M km2 lower than MASIE, nearly 3/4 of a Wadham in deficit.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 227 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region	2026227	Day 227 ave	2026-Ave.	2007227	2026-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	6081763	5893684	188079	5673110	408653
(1) Beaufort_Sea	924043	717443	206601	770413	153630
(2) Chukchi_Sea	666327	442909	223417	260048	406278
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	489246	566073	-76828	172718	316527
(4) Laptev_Sea	417965	244265	173700	292592	125373
(5) Kara_Sea	53320	90006	-36686	201115	-147794
(6) Barents_Sea	36	20953	-20917	17324	-17288
(7) Greenland_Sea	137031	217917	-80886	316155	-179124
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	62564	57852	4712	86165	-23600
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	387590	403530	-15941	375984	11606
(10) Hudson_Bay	18844	63303	-44459	91653	-72809
(11) Central_Arctic	2923673	3068368	-144694	3087687	-164013

The table shows that many regions are close to or above the 20-year average. The seas of Laptev, Chukchi and Beaufort are in surplus. The only sizeable deficits are in East Siberian, Greenland Sea and Central Arctic. Bering and Okhotsk seas are left off the list since they are open water now as usual. Note 2026 is 3% above average and 409k km2 higher than 2007.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.