For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The highest daily average in the last 18 years occurs on day 61 at 15.08M before descending. Most years are able to clear 15M, but in recent previous years, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 ice extents failed to clear the bar at 15M km2.  Now on February 11, 2024 (day 42) Arctic ice extent has already leaped over that bar 20 days early.

The graph shows how rapidly the Arctic froze this year, reaching 14.4M km2 extent already on January 24.  Then the extent waffled around that level, until suddenly a Hockey Stick shape appeared when 600k km2 of ice was added in just the last four days. That is 400k km2 above average, and well above many other years, including 2006.  SII is also lagging at 400k km2 lower.

The table shows the distribution of ice compared to day 45 averages and other years on that day.

Region	2024042	Day 45 Ave.	2024-Ave.	2006045	2024-2006
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	15040629	14687838	352791	14419407	621223
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070317	667	1069711	1273
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965761	245	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087103	35
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897773	71
(5) Kara_Sea	934647	908486	26161	932726	1920
(6) Barents_Sea	662793	582078	80715	530801	131992
(7) Greenland_Sea	825638	622774	202864	579677	245961
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1340370	1456370	-115999	1227497	112873
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853383	1478	852715	2145
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260579	325	1257433	3470
(11) Central_Arctic	3233243	3208074	25168	3198987	34255
(12) Bering_Sea	631508	700745	-69237	889518	-258010
(13) Baltic_Sea	136308	90991	45317	79904	56404
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1101713	923694	178019	759197	342516

The Pacific basins show a moderate deficit in Bering Sea offset by a large 178k km2 surplus in Okhotsk.  Baffin Bay is down 120k km2, offset by Greenland Sea over 200k km2 and Barents up 81k km2.

These results fly in the face of those claiming for years that Arctic ice is in a “death spiral.”  More sober and clear-eyed observers have called out the alarmists for their exaggerations.  A recent example comes from Allan Alsup Jensen at Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, Denmark.  His December 2023 paper is Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Since 2007 no significant decline has been observed

Abstract

The NSIDC website, IPCC’s reports and some scientific papers have announced that the Arctic Sea ice extent, when it is lowest in September month, in recent years has declined dramatically, and in few decades the sea ice is supposed to disappear completely in the summer. In that way new and shorter ships routes will open up north of the continents.

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. However, before that time period, from 1978 to 1996, the downward trend was minimal, and in the last 17 years from 2007 to 2023 the downward trend has also been about zero. Therefore, there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted, in one or two decades.

Regarding the extent of the summer (February) sea ice at the Antarctic, the downward trend during the years 1979-2021 was very small but in 2022 and 2023 a considerable decline was observed, and a decline was also clearly observed for the whole period of 2007- 2023. That was in contradiction to what happened in the Arctic. The pattern of the annual levels was not the same for the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating different drivers in the North and the South.

Figure 4: The minimum extent of the sea ice at Antarctic
in February month 1979-2023 (data from NSIDC.org)

These data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.

Postscript Feb. 14

Some seek to deny the current plateau in Arctic Sea Ice by saying that extent measure is only surface, while volume would be a truer metric.  That is true in theory, but in practice obtaining accurate and consistent data on sea ice thickness is a challenge yet to be reached.  As you can imagine, detecting a depth dimension from satellites is fraught with errors, especially with drift ice not land anchored, moving around, sometimes piling up from winds.  The scientific effort to measure volume has a short history and several uncertainties to ovecome before it can be trusted.

Unfortunately for those wanting an ice free Arctic (well, no more than 1 Wadham they say), the volume record so far shows the same plateau:

“Satellite derived sea ice thickness (CryoSat 2, AWI algorithm v2.6) shows an anomaly thickness pattern very similar to that from PIOMAS, but CS2 shows negative anomalies propagating north of the Canadian Archipelago into the central Arctic while PIOMAS has neutral conditions there. A positive thickness anomaly around Wrangle Island is spatially more extensive in CS2. January 2024 adds another month to the record of CS2 data which now spans 13 years. Neither CS2 nor PIOMAS show any discernible trend over that time period underlining the importance of internal variability at decadal timescales.”  Source: Polar Science Center

 

Impressive Arctic ice recovery continued in January, growing a month’s worth in just three weeks, as seen in the animation below:

In three weeks of January 2024, the Arctic added nearly a full Wadham of ice (1M km2). The animation shows Hudson Bay (lower right) freezing completely.  Just above Hudson, you can see the Gulf of St. Lawrence icing over, and Baffin Bay adding ice, extending fast ice all the way to Newfoundland, now up to 64% of its annual maximum.

At the extreme and lower left, Okhotsk and Bering Seas also grow rapidly. Okhotsk grew ice extent up to 914k, 81% of its max last March.  Bering grew up to 514k km2, 68% of its max.  At the top Kara freezes over and Barents and Greenland Seas add ice to their margins.The graph below shows the January ice recovery.

Note the average January ends at 14.36 km2 while 2024 has already reached 14.33 km2, up from 13.39 km2 at the start, and presently  288k km2 above average. SII started slightly lower than MASIE and tracked quite closely since. Note that other recent years have varied below the 18-year average at month end.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 18-year averages and some recent years.

Region	2024022	Day 22	2024-Ave.	2018022	2024-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14333601	14045488	288112	13505957	827644
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070983	1070317	667	1070445	538
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965999	7	965971	35
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	932571	910022	22549	891776	40795
(6) Barents_Sea	712531	530554	181977	322465	390067
(7) Greenland_Sea	703581	601855	101726	465828	237753
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1050488	1239519	-189031	1330666	-280179
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853382	1479	853109	1752
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260695	209	1260838	66
(11) Central_Arctic	3230107	3203377	26730	3165195	64912
(12) Bering_Sea	513853	600796	-86943	343164	170689
(13) Baltic_Sea	93892	56072	37820	44364	49528
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	914275	720482	193793	782100	132175

This year’s ice extent is 288k km2 or 2.1% above average.  Only Baffin Bay and Bering have deficits to average, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, espcially Greenland, Barents and Okhotsk seas. Many of the others are already maxed out.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and NH snow cover.

 

Many noticed the Gore effect during COP28 when Arctic ice extents grew rapidly to catch up and exceed normal. Now in the first 10 days of January Arctic ice is growing way faster than normal. On the left, both Bering and Okhotsk seas are now ~65% of their maxes. Kara at top is 100% of max and Barents next to Kara is 83% of max. Overall, the Arctic has already reached 93% of last year’s Mid March maximum.

Coincidently, COP28 also triggered heavy snow bringing chaos to southern Germany causing Munich to suspend flights to anywhere, including Dubai. Now January is breaking the glazed ceiling outstriping past conditions.

The graph below shows the gains in ice extent the first 10 days of January 2024, the 18 year average and some other recent years, as well as SII (Sea Ice Index).

MASIE and SII are both well above the 18 year average, and almost 10 days ahead of it. 2024 is on the verge of breaking 14M km2, just 400k km2 short of normal extents at end of January.  

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2024010	Day 10	2024-Ave.	2007010	2024-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13940138	13508235	431903	13334598	605540
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070352	614	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965221	785	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087137	0
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897836	8	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	934227	914139	20088	909703	24524
(6) Barents_Sea	593194	463310	129884	363027	230166
(7) Greenland_Sea	722914	577267	145647	576959	145955
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	941219	1088951	-147732	934564	6655
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853418	1442	852767	2094
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1249501	11402	1260839	65
(11) Central_Arctic	3233482	3202675	30807	3204750	28732
(12) Bering_Sea	492428	503203	-10775	606863	-114435
(13) Baltic_Sea	128886	33634	95252	3303	125582
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	729537	565328	164209	585350	144187

Note that Arctic ice now nearly 14M km2 and  432k km2 above average, or 3.2%.  As shown in the table above, the only deficit to average is in Baffin Bay,  Offsetting are surpluses elsewhere, especially in Greenland sea, along with Barents and Okhotsk seas. Really, the only regions left to grow much up to max are Baffin Bay, Bering and Okhotsk seas.

 

 

Impressive Arctic ice recovery continued in December as seen in the animation below:

The month of December 2023 shows Hudson Bay (lower right) starting with some western shore ice and ending 92% ice covered, adding in that basin ~800k km2. Just above Hudson, you can see the Gulf of St. Lawrence icing over, and Baffin Bay adding ice as well, now up to 50% of its annual maximum.

At the extreme and lower left, Okhotsk and Bering Seas also start with little shore ice. Okhotsk grew ice extent from 57k km2 up to 530k, 62% of its max last March.  Bering grew from 48k up to 478k km2, 56% of its max.  At the top Kara freezes over and Barents and Greenland Seas add ice to their margins. The graph below shows the December ice recovery. (Day 365 coming, and may be delayed by holiday.)

Note the average year adds 2M km2 while 2023 added ~2.5M, now 361k km2 above average. SII started 200k km2 lower than MASIE and ended up with the same deficit. Note that the other years are not far from the 17-year average at year end.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 17-year averages and some recent years.

Region	2023364	Day 364	2023-Ave.	2007364	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13335688	12974817	360871	13049737	285951
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070352	614	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	963344	2662	965971	35
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087120	17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897841	4	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	923106	880831	42275	871851	51255
(6) Barents_Sea	423772	415592	8179	334577	89194
(7) Greenland_Sea	739662	579776	159886	666135	73528
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	911691	965051	-53360	1074827	-163136
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853421	1439	852556	2304
(10) Hudson_Bay	1165656	1234412	-68757	1260856	-95201
(11) Central_Arctic	3218074	3205662	12412	3199726	18348
(12) Bering_Sea	472476	391321	81155	373942	98534
(13) Baltic_Sea	44969	27442	17527	9972	34997
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	530117	377911	152206	371241	158876

This year’s ice extent is 361k km2 or 2.8% above average.  Only Baffin Bay and Hudson have deficits to average, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, espcially Greenland, Bering and Okhotsk seas. Many of the others are already maxed out.

Comparing Arctic Ice at End of Years

At  the bottom is a discussion of statistics on year-end Arctic Sea Ice extents.  The values are averages of the last five days of each year.  End of December is a neutral point in the melting-freezing cycle, midway between September minimum and March maximum extents.

Background from Previous Post Updated to Year-End 2023

Some years ago reading a thread on global warming at WUWT, I was struck by one person’s comment: “I’m an actuary with limited knowledge of climate metrics, but it seems to me if you want to understand temperature changes, you should analyze the changes, not the temperatures.” That rang bells for me, and I applied that insight in a series of Temperature Trend Analysis studies of surface station temperature records. Those posts are available under this heading. Climate Compilation Part I Temperatures

This post seeks to understand Arctic Sea Ice fluctuations using a similar approach: Focusing on the rates of extent changes rather than the usual study of the ice extents themselves. Fortunately, Sea Ice Index (SII) from NOAA provides a suitable dataset for this project. As many know, SII relies on satellite passive microwave sensors to produce charts of Arctic Ice extents going back to 1979.  The current Version 3 has become more closely aligned with MASIE, the modern form of Naval ice charting in support of Arctic navigation. The SII User Guide is here.

There are statistical analyses available, and the one of interest (table below) is called Sea Ice Index Rates of Change (here). As indicated by the title, this spreadsheet consists not of monthly extents, but changes of extents from the previous month. Specifically, a monthly value is calculated by subtracting the average of the last five days of the previous month from this month’s average of final five days. So the value presents the amount of ice gained or lost during the present month.

These monthly rates of change have been compiled into a baseline for the period 1980 to 2010, which shows the fluctuations of Arctic ice extents over the course of a calendar year. Below is a graph of those averages of monthly changes up to and including this year. Those familiar with Arctic Ice studies will not be surprised at the sine wave form. December end is a relatively neutral point in the cycle, midway between the September Minimum and March Maximum.

The graph makes evident the six spring/summer months of melting and the six autumn/winter months of freezing.  Note that June-August produce the bulk of losses, while October-December show the bulk of gains. Also the peak and valley months of March and September show very little change in extent from beginning to end.

The table of monthly data reveals the variability of ice extents over the last 4 decades.

The values in January show changes from the end of the previous December, and by summing twelve consecutive months we can calculate an annual rate of change for the years 1979 to 2023.

As many know, there has been a decline of Arctic ice extent over these 40 years, averaging 70k km2 per year. But year over year, the changes shift constantly between gains and losses, ranging up to +/- 500k km2.  Since 1989 the average yearend gain/loss is nearly zero, -0.033k km2 to be exact.

Moreover, it seems random as to which months are determinative for a given year. For example, much ado was printed about 2023 losing more ice than usual June through September. But then the final 3 months of 2023 more than made up for those summer losses, resulting in a sizeable gain for the year.

As it happens in this dataset, October has the highest rate of adding ice. The table below shows the variety of monthly rates in the record as anomalies from the 1980-2010 baseline. In this exhibit a red cell is a negative anomaly (less than baseline for that month) and blue is positive (higher than baseline).

Note that the  +/ –  rate anomalies are distributed all across the grid, sequences of different months in different years, with gains and losses offsetting one another.  As noted earlier,  in 2023 the outlier negative months were June through September where unusual amounts of ice were lost.  Then unusally strong gains in October and December resulted in a large annual gain, compared to the baseline. The bottom line presents the average anomalies for each month over the period 1979-2021.  Note the rates of gains and losses mostly offset, and the average of all months in the bottom right cell is virtually zero.

A final observation: The graph below shows the Yearend Arctic Ice Extents for the last 34 years.

Year-end Arctic ice extents (last 5 days of December) show three distinct regimes: 1988-1998, 1998-2010, 2010-2022. The average year-end extent 1989-2010 is 13.4M km2. In the last decade, 2011 was 13.0M km2, and six years later, 2017 was 12.3M km2. 2021 rose back to 13.06  2022 slipped back to 12.6M, and 2023 is back up to 13.0M. So for all the the fluctuations, the net is zero, or a gain of half a Wadham (0.5M) from 2010. Talk of an Arctic ice death spiral is fanciful.

These data show a noisy, highly variable natural phenomenon. Clearly, unpredictable factors are in play, principally water structure and circulation, atmospheric circulation regimes, and also incursions and storms. And in the longer view, today’s extents are not unusual.

 

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

 

As COP28 began, Arctic ice extrent grew rapidly and by its end the Arctic was completely normal. On lower left, Chukchi sea filled in and below Bering sea started serious freezing. Lower right Hudson Bay more than doubled up to 800k km2, 2/3 of its maximum extent.  Center right Baffin Bay grew to 45% of max.

Coincidently, COP28 also triggered heavy snow bringing chaos to southern Germany causing Munich to suspend flights to anywhere, including Dubai.

The graph below shows the gains in ice extent mid-November to Mid December for 2023, the 17 year average and some other recent years, as well as SII (Sea Ice Index)

MASIE showed 2023 and 2022 tracking the 17 year average and ending very close together.  2007 fluctuated a lot, well below average in December before rising at the end.  SII tracked ~400k km2 lower most of this period, before rising to match MASIE in the last few days.

 

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2023349	Day 349	2023-Ave.	2007349	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12104311	12162108	-57797	12000124	104187
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1070103	863	1069711	1255
(2) Chukchi_Sea	948805	934827	13978	796459	152347
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1086539	598	1077192	9945
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897835	9	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	826874	847433	-20559	842174	-15300
(6) Barents_Sea	370088	335870	34218	285179	84909
(7) Greenland_Sea	688238	546548	141690	571916	116322
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	819365	824803	-5438	852443	-33079
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853420	1440	852556	2304
(10) Hudson_Bay	800760	1101080	-300320	1248305	-447546
(11) Central_Arctic	3212059	3204043	8016	3192331	19728
(12) Bering_Sea	226652	236725	-10073	93340	133312
(13) Baltic_Sea	55323	11920	43403	10353	44970
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	231640	200090	31550	206342	25297

Note that Arctic ice now exceeds 12M km2, or 80% of last March maximum.  As shown in the table above, the main deficit to average is in Hudson Bay, likely to be overcome with the current rapid growth. Offsetting are surpluses elsewhere, mostly in Greenland sea, along with Barents and Baltic seas.

 

 

The animation shows remarkable growth of Arctic ice extent just since COP28 began.  As noted in the previous Arctic ice post, Hudson Bay (lower right) was a lagging region, but freezing accelerated there. At the top, Barents and Greenland sea added ice. As well, both Bering and Okhotsk seas (far left) added fast ice on coastlines. In all, half a Wadham, 517k km2 of ice extent was added in just three days.

Coincidently, COP28 also triggered heavy snow bringing chaos to southern Germany causing Munich to suspend flights to anywhere, including Dubai.

The graph below shows the gains in ice extent erasing a brief deficit to average.

MASIE shows a gain of ~0.5M km2 from day 334 to 336, now exceeding average after being lower briefly.  SII (Sea Ice Index) also rose but is still estimating ice extent ~500k km2 lower.

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2023336	Day 336	2023-Ave.	2007336	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11113626	11059843	53782	10853632	259993
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1069301	1665	1054586	16380
(2) Chukchi_Sea	765844	797154	-31311	607874	157970
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1080765	6372	1023256	63882
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897835	9	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	812779	796332	16446	829462	-16683
(6) Barents_Sea	350616	259899	90717	222769	127847
(7) Greenland_Sea	711570	538651	172919	541176	170393
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	571757	697517	-125760	755390	-183633
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854860	853409	1451	852556	2304
(10) Hudson_Bay	553841	636088	-82247	812965	-259124
(11) Central_Arctic	3220281	3198662	21619	3177278	43003
(12) Bering_Sea	82391	154107	-71716	27916	54475
(13) Baltic_Sea	23276	4889	18387	2898	20378
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	106202	70731	35471	46377	59826

Note that Arctic ice now exceeds 11M km2, or 74% of last March maximum.  As shown in the table above, the main deficits to average are in Hudson and Baffin Bays, along with less ice in Bering Sea. Offsetting are surpluses elsewhere, especially in Barents and Greenland seas.

 

 

The animation shows the continuing growth of Arctic ice extent during November 2023, from day 305 to yesterday, day 334.  For all of the fuss over the September minimum, little is said about Arctic ice growing back rapidly; that’s 4 Wadhams in October, plus another 2,2M in Nov to total 10.6M km2, or 10.6 Wadhams.  The Russian side on the left froze over in October, and now at the center bottom you can see Beaufort sea and Canadian Archipelago icing over completely. At top center Kara and Barents are adding normal ice extents. On the right side are the two lagging basins: Baffin and Hudson Bays, though freezing has started in Hudson bay in the last ten days.  That basin is shallow and likely to freeze over in the next two weeks.

The graph below shows the 30 days of November 2023 compared to the 17 year average (2006 to 2022 inclusive), to SII (Sea Ice Index) and some notable years.

 

Taking the average extent for the final 5 days of October 2023 compared to same for end of November, the added ice extent is 2.2M km2.  The growth slowed at the end resulting in a 290k km2 deficit to average.  Sea Ice Index (SII) is ~200k km2 lower than MASIE. 

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2023334	Day 334	2023-Ave.	2007334	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10626375	10921303	-294928	11009948	-383574
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070966	1069463	1503	1058872	12094
(2) Chukchi_Sea	722477	788533	-66056	687829	34649
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1083567	3570	1082015	5122
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897822	23	897613	232
(5) Kara_Sea	799640	792930	6710	826319	-26679
(6) Barents_Sea	262074	248861	13213	216525	45549
(7) Greenland_Sea	607148	533255	73893	618844	-11696
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	591970	671268	-79298	708497	-116527
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854826	853266	1560	850249	4577
(10) Hudson_Bay	379047	574308	-195261	751382	-372335
(11) Central_Arctic	3220511	3192296	28215	3183073	37438
(12) Bering_Sea	47829	145731	-97902	72645	-24816
(13) Baltic_Sea	16936	3593	13343	0	16936
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	63947	62153	1794	53052	10895

As shown in the table above, the deficit is due to lagging growth in Hudson and Baffin Bays, along with less ice in Chukchi and Bering Seas. Typically these basins are among the last to freeze.

 

 

The animation shows the rapid growth of Arctic ice extent during November 2023, from day 304 to yesterday, day 319.  For all of the fuss over the September minimum, little is said about Arctic ice growing back rapidly; that’s 4 Wadhams in October, plus another 1.3M in Nov to total 10M km2, or 10 Wadhams.  The Russian side on the left froze over in October, and now at the center bottom you can see Beaufort sea and Canadian Archipelago icing up. Center right is Baffin Bay growing ice as well.

The graph below shows the last 30 days of 2023 compared to the 17 year average (2006 to 2022 inclusive), to SII (Sea Ice Index) and some notable years.

 

From Mid October to Mid November 2023, MASIE shows NH ice extent growing from 6.3 M km2 to 10M.  That matches 2022 and exceeds the 17 year average by more than 200K km2.   SII (Sea Ice Index) is only slightly lower.

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2023319	Day 319 Ave.	2023-Ave.	2007319	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	9997068	9784253	212815	9737614	259454
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1051194	1063450	-12257	1053727	-2533
(2) Chukchi_Sea	596947	629695	-32748	503783	93164
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1064913	1075985	-11072	1043952	20960
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897217	628	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	696199	658489	37710	765376	-69177
(6) Barents_Sea	245998	154920	91078	145438	100560
(7) Greenland_Sea	613312	460620	152692	527575	85737
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	536576	526706	9870	533931	2645
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	841536	850736	-9200	852539	-11003
(10) Hudson_Bay	161371	234076	-72704	231544	-70173
(11) Central_Arctic	3236821	3174741	62081	3156228	80594

Overall ice extent has 212k km2 above average or 2%.  The only sizeable deficit is in Hudson Bay,  more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, especiallly in Greenland and Barents seas, along with the Central Arctic.

 

 

The animation shows the rapid growth of Arctic ice extent during October 2023, from day 274 to day 304, yesterday.  For all of the fuss over the September minimum, little is said about Arctic ice growing 4M km2, that’s 4 Wadhams in one month!.  Look on the left (Russian side) at the complete closing of the Northern Sea Route for shipping.

The graph below show 2023 compared to the 17 year average (2006 to 2022 inclusive), to SII (Sea Ice Index) and some notable years.

This year October added 3.95M km2 from end of September compared to an average October increase of 3.45M km2.  As of yesterday NH ice extent is 368k km2 above average and nearly 600k km2 greater than 2007.

The table below shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic Ocean basins.

Region	2023304	Ave. Day 304	2023-Ave.	2007304	2023-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8768573	8422636	345938	8175072	593501
(1) Beaufort_Sea	780946	957189	-176243	1038126	-257180
(2) Chukchi_Sea	535578	454974	80604	242685	292894
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1078989	936944	142045	835071	243917
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	842696	55149	887789	10055
(5) Kara_Sea	655623	473780	181843	311960	343664
(6) Barents_Sea	121748	83466	38282	52823	68925
(7) Greenland_Sea	528448	412774	115675	443559	84890
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	243512	256243	-12731	289374	-45861
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	629955	762429	-132474	817220	-187265
(10) Hudson_Bay	82242	69487	12754	48845	33396
(11) Central_Arctic	3207724	3161034	46690	3206345	1379

Overall ice extent has 346k km2 above average or 4%.  Sizeable deficits are in Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago, more than offset by surpluses in Chukchi, East Siberian, Kara and Greenland seas.