After a sub-par March maximum, by end of May 2025 Arctic ice closed the gap with the 19-year average. Then in June the gap reopened and in July the melting pace matched the average, abeit four days in advance of average.

During this period the average year loses ~2.5M km2 of ice extent.   MASIE on day 166 was ~300k km2 down, and the gap increased to almost 550k km2 by June 30 (day 181). The deficit to average then reduced to ~350k km2, which persisted over the last 12 days

including yesterday, day 196. The graph shows MASIE 2025 matching the average on day 192, four days in advance.

The regional distribution of ice extents is shown in the table below. (Bering and Okhotsk seas are excluded since both are now virtually open water.)

Region	2025196	Day 196	2025-Ave.	2020196	2025-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8007061	8358377	-351316	7556873	450188
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1022304	866531	155773	931056	91248
(2) Chukchi_Sea	718615	643869	74745	612932	105683
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	976061	921340	54721	659117	316945
(4) Laptev_Sea	645741	559270	86471	174286	471454
(5) Kara_Sea	153545	360645	-207100	159679	-6134
(6) Barents_Sea	14342	56080	-41738	39446	-25105
(7) Greenland_Sea	387402	402761	-15359	400498	-13096
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	268783	311662	-42878	232167	36616
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	630633	711293	-80660	733866	-103233
(10) Hudson_Bay	155460	349275	-193815	520027	-364567
(11) Central_Arctic	3032353	3171652	-139299	3093040.21	-60687

The table shows  the two largest deficits, the Atlantic Kara basin combined with Hudson Bay, exceed the total difference from average. In addition are lower ice extents in Central Arctic and Canadian Archipelago, offset by surpluses in Beaufort Sea and other Eurasian shelf basins.  Note that Hudson Bay with 350k km2 average ice extent yesterday will have less than 100k in three weeks.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher  temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post NH and Tropics Lead UAH Temps Lower May 2025.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

After a sub-par March maximum, in April and now in May 2025, Arctic ice has closed the gap with the 19-year average.

During May the average year loses 1.71 M km2 of ice extent.   MASIE showed 2025 losing slightly more, 1.78 M km2, while SII showed close to average at month end.   Throughout May both MASIE and SII tracked close to the 19 year average with a dipping lower mid month.

The regional distribution of ice extents is shown in the table below.

Region	2025151	Day 151	2025-Ave.	2007151	2025-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11641897	11739951	-98055	11846659	-204762
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1066232	1010120	56112	1059461	6771
(2) Chukchi_Sea	941331	872869	68462	894617	46714
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1074738	1065906	8832	1069198	5540
(4) Laptev_Sea	779394	828746	-49352	754651	24744
(5) Kara_Sea	736946	831977	-95031	895678	-158732
(6) Barents_Sea	291895	315440	-23544	323801	-31906
(7) Greenland_Sea	670528	584085	86443	591919	78609
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	853619	904731	-51112	934257	-80637
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	843914	812776	31138	818055	25859
(10) Hudson_Bay	1046462	1081957	-35494	1077744	-31282
(11) Central_Arctic	3216938	3220915	-3977	3230109.43	-13171
(12) Bering_Sea	73534	115851	-42316	112352.8	-38819
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	6015	-6015	0	0
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	44702	175668	-130966	83076	-38375

The table shows  major deficits in the Pacific basins of Okhotsk and Bering combined are 173k km2. On the Atlantic side, Kara and Laptev combined to lose 144k km2.  The other regions are a mix of surpluses and deficits giving an overall result about 100k km2 below average or 0.8%.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher  temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post April 2025 UAH Temps Little Changed For Now.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

NOAA refers to the Month end Arctic ice extent by averaging the last five days extents.  Thus monthly gains and losses of ice can be obtained by subtracting the previous month end ice amount.  The chart above shows the April month end Arctic ice extents since 2007, comparing the two relevant datasets: Sea Ice Index (SII, based on satellite microwave sensors) and Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE, based on multiple sources including several satellite sensors and visual analysis).

A sine wave pattern is evident starting after the low 2007 extent, rising to a peak in 2012, declining to 2019, before returning to the mean the last four years.

After a sub-par March maximum, now in April, 2025, Arctic ice has closed the gap with the 19-year average.

During April the average year loses 1.1M km2 of ice extent.  Meanwhile 2025 lost only 0.538 M km2, about half as much.  The end result is MASIE showing a slight deficit and SII a small surplus at end of April.

The regional distribution of ice extents is particularly revealing, as shown in the table below.

Region	2025120	Day 120 Ave.	2025-Ave.	2007120	2025-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13428208	13510326	-82118	13108068	320140
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1071001	1068240	2761	1059189	11811
(2) Chukchi_Sea	963094	957153	5942	949246	13848
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1085746	1391	1080176	6961
(4) Laptev_Sea	893105	891206	1899	875661	17444
(5) Kara_Sea	927530	915007	12523	864664	62866
(6) Barents_Sea	563013	552738	10275	396544	166470
(7) Greenland_Sea	703059	661036	42023	644438	58621
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1129634	1194283	-64650	1147115	-17481
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854878	849548	5330	838032	16846
(10) Hudson_Bay	1249532	1238910	10622	1222074	27458
(11) Central_Arctic	3244486	3231137	13349	3241034.13	3452
(12) Bering_Sea	441499	477412	-35913	475489	-33990
(13) Baltic_Sea	11180	21561	-10382	14683.79	-3504
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	287204	363423	-76219	295743	-8539

The table shows only three significant deficits to average; Okhotsk is -72k km2, and Bering adds -40k, together greater than the overall -82k km2, which is 0.6% below average.  The other deficit in Baffin Bay is  offset by surpluses in nearly every other Arctic basin with the exception of Baltic Sea. Clearly the core Arctic ocean is solidly frozen, with a few fringe seas going to open water slightly ahead of schedule.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post March 2025 UAH Yo-yo Temps.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, then overcome by 2024.

After a sub-par March maximum, now in mid-April, 2025 Arctic ice has mostly closed the gap with the 19-year average.

Day 75 is mid-March, typically near the highest daily extents of the year.  At that time 2025 was ~500k km2 below average, or Half a Wadham in deficit. By end of March this year the gap below average reached 600k km2.  However, note that over these 30 days MASIE shows an average ice extent loss of 781k km2, while 2025 lost almost no ice in April, hanging around the 14M km2 mark.  Both MASIE and SII showed the same resilience pattern in April 2025, well above 2021 and especially 2007.  The regional distribution of ice extents is particularly revealing.

Region	2025105	Day 105 Ave.	2025-Ave.	2007105	2025-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13927695	14126275	-198580	13588722	338973
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1071001	1069881	1119	1068692	2309
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965989	964751	1238	961638	4352
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1085653	1484	1078666	8471
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	893756	4089	843501	54344
(5) Kara_Sea	921800	923592	-1792	890594	31206
(6) Barents_Sea	517245	621900	-104655	439904	77341
(7) Greenland_Sea	710333	661040	49293	673585	36749
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1306106	1274576	31530	1215526	90580
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854878	853052	1826	848812	6066
(10) Hudson_Bay	1248738	1246317	2422	1208588	40150
(11) Central_Arctic	3246240	3234033	12206	3235648.34	10591
(12) Bering_Sea	657229	646796	10433	600281.22	56948
(13) Baltic_Sea	13278	43789	-30511	23534.37	-10256
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	427895	601889	-173994	491121	-63226

The table shows only two significant deficits to average; Okhotsk alone is -174k km2, nearly matching the overall total of -199k km2, which is 1.4% below average.  The other deficit in Barents is mostly offset by surpluses in nearly every other Arctic basin with the exception of Baltic Sea. Clearly the core Arctic ocean is solidly frozen, with a few fringe seas going to open water slightly ahead of schedule.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post Ocean Warms, Land Cools UAH February 2025.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, then overcome by 2024.

Climatology takes the March monthly average to indicate the annual maximum and September average as the minimum.  Dynamically, the Arctic gains and loses ice extents in this pattern:

The values in the chart are the month ending ice extents (last five days average) minus the ice extents at end of the previous month.  Thus positive numbers show ice gained each month, negative numbers ice lost in a given month.  SII (Sea Ice Index) provides a data file calculating and updating these results since 1980. Note that the peak month of March on average declines very slightly, while the minimum month of September on average gains a little ice extent.  Also the greatest average gain of ice is in October and the greatest loss of extent is in July.

Above is a chart of March Monthly averages since 2007. The variability shows, including 2024 well above the 19-year average and 2025 well below.

This graph shows variations of ice extents during March, on average and for some recent years along with 2007.  The exceptional extents in 2024 stand out, along with the more typical 2021 and 2007.  On average during March the Arctic loses about 400k km2 of ice.  2025 started March at 14M km2, about 900k km2 in deficit, and ended virtually the same 14M, 600k km2 below average on day 90. SII was slightly lower than MASIE for three weeks, then ended about the same.

The table below shows the distribution of ice extents across the Arctic regions.

Region	2025090	Ave Day 090	2025-Ave.	2007090	2025-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14011379	14617665	-606287	14222916	-211537
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1071001	1070241	760	1069711	1290
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965989	964237	1752	966006	-17
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1086266	871	1074908	12229
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897098	747	884340	13505
(5) Kara_Sea	885597	920703	-35106	892157	-6560
(6) Barents_Sea	450824	664324	-213500	441970	8854
(7) Greenland_Sea	703578	665146	38433	686312	17266
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1350818	1386137	-35320	1217467	133351
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854878	853269	1609	850127	4751
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1255273	5631	1229995	30908
(11) Central_Arctic	3237488	3234612	2876	3242236.7	-4749
(12) Bering_Sea	593465	711340	-117875	814787.71	-221323
(13) Baltic_Sea	20341	62183	-41842	45896.93	-25556
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	628758	836750	-207992	794657	-165899

Overall 2025 Arctic ice is 4% below the 19 year average and 1% below 2007.  About half of the 606k km2 deficit is in the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk, typically the first to go to open water. The other major case of early melting is in the Atlantic Barents Sea.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post Ocean Warms, Land Cools UAH February 2025.

 

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

Arctic ice recovered more slowly than usual in December and January, likely due to polar vortex pulling freezing air from the Arctic down into lower latitudes, replaced by warmer southern air.  A post at Severe Weather Europe is February 2025 Forecast, describing the dynamics this winter.  

After a mild start, a new Polar Express is looming
for the United States and Canada mid-month.

As January is slowly ending, we can look at preliminary surface temperature data for the month so far. Below is the CDAS analysis, and you can see that January was colder than normal across the entire United States, apart from California and parts of Nevada. But these anomalies do not show the full picture of just how cold some days in the month were, breaking records for several years and even decades in the past.

On the other hand, we can see that Canada had warmer than normal temperatures. This is an expected pattern, as while the colder air was transported further south into the United States, it was replaced by high-pressure and a warmer-than-normal airmass.

The movement of the pressure systems drives these temperature patterns and weather changes. Pairs of pressure systems are also known as Rossby Waves. You can see an example of Rossby waves in the image below by NOAA and how they are all connected and function with the jet stream.

In late January, the average temperatures in the northern United States and southern Canada are still around or below freezing, so even a strong positive anomaly does not actually mean warm temperatures in that region. But, it is interesting to see the rapid shift in temperature anomalies as the pressure systems reposition.

February 2025 is about to start, with the latest weather forecasts indicating a very dynamic month over the United States and Canada. After the power struggle between the cold and warmth at the start of the month, another Polar Vortex lobe looms for the United States around mid-month.

Below is the surface temperature anomaly, averaged for next week. You can see the large supply of colder air over the northern United States and western Canada. Another cooler area is forecast for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.

But most of the central and southern half of the United States is forecast to have above-normal temperatures. We often see such a division in the weather patterns, where the colder and warmer air separate along the jet stream.

Going into the weather trend for the second half of February, we will use the extended-range ensemble forecasts. These forecasts serve as trends that show the prevailing idea of where the pressure systems are positioned and how the airmass is expected to move.

The continuous low-pressure systems over Canada helped to initiate large-scale cold air transport from the Arctic into the United States and Canada, also powered by the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere.

We continue to see the presence of the low-pressure area over Canada in the forecast for February. But the forecast now indicates an interesting core movement of the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere, likely to initiate another deep cold event around mid-month over the United States and Canada.

Impact on Arctic Ice Extents

The 19-year average for January shows Arctic ice extents started at 13.13M km2 and ended the month at 14.36M km2.  2024 started somewhat higher and matched average at the end.  Other recent years have been lower, and 2025 started 540k km2 in deficit and 818k km2 below average at month end. The gap had closed to 400k km2 before losing extents at the end.  SII and MASIE tracked closely this month.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 19-year averages and some recent years.  2007 seven was close to the average, so 2018 is shown for comparison.

Region	2025031	Ave Day 031	2025-Ave.	2018031	2025-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13543740	14362137	-818398	13792271	-248532
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1071001	1070386	614	1070445	556
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965989	965974	15	965971	18
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087063	74	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897824	21	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	921520	917381	4139	895363	26157
(6) Barents_Sea	428814	563859	-135044	481947	-53133
(7) Greenland_Sea	614789	613370	1418	501411	113378
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1080930	1328380	-247450	1406903	-325972
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854878	853510	1368	853109	1769
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260778	125	1260838	66
(11) Central_Arctic	3211379	3210507	872	3184817	26562
(12) Bering_Sea	534452	648807	-114354	382206	152245
(13) Baltic_Sea	39334	62876	-23542	41713.99	-2380
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	559692	823877	-264185	704398	-144707

This year’s ice extent is 818k km2 or 5.7% below average.  About half of the deficit comes from the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk sea.  The other two major losses are in Barents Sea and Baffin Bay.  With the annual maximum typically occurring mid-March, it is likely the ice then will also be lower than usual.   

 

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and NH snow cover.

 

With Arctic ice melting season winding down, warmists again stoked fears about ice disappearing in the North. In fact, the pattern of Arctic ice seen in historical perspective is not alarming. People are over-thinking and over-analyzing Arctic Ice extents, and getting wrapped around the axle (or should I say axis).  So let’s keep it simple and we can all readily understand what is happening up North.

I have noticed at some other blogs people complain about my monthly Arctic ice updates focusing on extents starting in 2007. This post will show why that time period is entirely reasonable as a subject for analysis. I will use the ever popular NOAA dataset derived from satellite passive microwave sensors.  It sometimes understates the ice extents, but everyone refers to it and it is complete from 1981 to present.  Here’s what NOAA reports (in M km2):

We are frequently told that only the March maximums and the September minimums matter, since the other months are only transitional between the two.  So the graph above shows the mean ice extent, averaging the two months March and September.  The data comes from Sea Ice Index (SII).

If I were adding this to the Ice House of Mirrors, the name would be The X-Ray Ice Mirror, because it looks into the structure of the time series.   For even more clarity and simplicity, here is the table:

NOAA NH Annual Average Ice Extents (in M km2).  Sea Ice Index v3.0 (here)

Year	Average	Change	Rate of Change
1981	11.385
1997	11.077	-0.308	-0.019 per year
2007	9.405	-1.672	-0.167 per year
2024	9.626	+0.221	+0.013 per year

The satellites involve rocket science, but this does not.  There was a small loss of ice extent over the first 16 years, then a dramatic downturn for 10 years, 9 times the rate as before. That was followed by the current 17-year plateau with a slight gain comparable to the beginning loss.  All the fuss is over that middle period, and we know what caused it.  A lot of multi-year ice was flushed out through the Fram Strait, leaving behind more easily melted younger ice. The effects from that natural occurrence bottomed out in 2007.

Kwok et al say this about the Variability of Fram Strait ice flux:

The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978–1996) is 670,000 km2, ;7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 km2 in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 km2 in 1995. . .The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 km3 ranging from a low of 1375 km3 in the 1990 flux to a high of 2791 km3 in 1994.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261010602/download

Conclusion:

Some complain it is too soon to say Arctic Ice is recovering, or that 2007 is a true change point.  The same people were quick to jump on a declining period after 1996 as evidence of a “Death Spiral.”

Footnote:

No one knows what will happen to Arctic ice.

Except maybe the polar bears.

And they are not talking.

Except, of course, to the admen from Coca-Cola