Arctic Sea Ice

Arctic Ice March Maximum 2025 in Perspective

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, then overcome by 2024.

Climatology takes the March monthly average to indicate the annual maximum and September average as the minimum.  Dynamically, the Arctic gains and loses ice extents in this pattern:

The values in the chart are the month ending ice extents (last five days average) minus the ice extents at end of the previous month.  Thus positive numbers show ice gained each month, negative numbers ice lost in a given month.  SII (Sea Ice Index) provides a data file calculating and updating these results since 1980. Note that the peak month of March on average declines very slightly, while the minimum month of September on average gains a little ice extent.  Also the greatest average gain of ice is in October and the greatest loss of extent is in July.

Above is a chart of March Monthly averages since 2007. The variability shows, including 2024 well above the 19-year average and 2025 well below.

This graph shows variations of ice extents during March, on average and for some recent years along with 2007.  The exceptional extents in 2024 stand out, along with the more typical 2021 and 2007.  On average during March the Arctic loses about 400k km2 of ice.  2025 started March at 14M km2, about 900k km2 in deficit, and ended virtually the same 14M, 600k km2 below average on day 90. SII was slightly lower than MASIE for three weeks, then ended about the same.

The table below shows the distribution of ice extents across the Arctic regions.

Region 2025090 Ave Day 090 2025-Ave. 2007090 2025-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 14011379 14617665 -606287 14222916 -211537
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1071001 1070241 760 1069711 1290
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965989 964237 1752 966006 -17
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1086266 871 1074908 12229
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897098 747 884340 13505
 (5) Kara_Sea 885597 920703 -35106 892157 -6560
 (6) Barents_Sea 450824 664324 -213500 441970 8854
 (7) Greenland_Sea 703578 665146 38433 686312 17266
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1350818 1386137 -35320 1217467 133351
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854878 853269 1609 850127 4751
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1255273 5631 1229995 30908
 (11) Central_Arctic 3237488 3234612 2876 3242236.7 -4749
 (12) Bering_Sea 593465 711340 -117875 814787.71 -221323
 (13) Baltic_Sea 20341 62183 -41842 45896.93 -25556
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 628758 836750 -207992 794657 -165899

Overall 2025 Arctic ice is 4% below the 19 year average and 1% below 2007.  About half of the 606k km2 deficit is in the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk, typically the first to go to open water. The other major case of early melting is in the Atlantic Barents Sea.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post Ocean Warms, Land Cools UAH February 2025.

 

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_level

Arctic Ice Recovery Stalls January 2025

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Arctic ice recovered more slowly than usual in December and January, likely due to polar vortex pulling freezing air from the Arctic down into lower latitudes, replaced by warmer southern air.  A post at Severe Weather Europe is February 2025 Forecast, describing the dynamics this winter.  

After a mild start, a new Polar Express is looming
for the United States and Canada mid-month.

As January is slowly ending, we can look at preliminary surface temperature data for the month so far. Below is the CDAS analysis, and you can see that January was colder than normal across the entire United States, apart from California and parts of Nevada. But these anomalies do not show the full picture of just how cold some days in the month were, breaking records for several years and even decades in the past.

On the other hand, we can see that Canada had warmer than normal temperatures. This is an expected pattern, as while the colder air was transported further south into the United States, it was replaced by high-pressure and a warmer-than-normal airmass.

The movement of the pressure systems drives these temperature patterns and weather changes. Pairs of pressure systems are also known as Rossby Waves. You can see an example of Rossby waves in the image below by NOAA and how they are all connected and function with the jet stream.

The purple line connecting these pressure systems is called the jet stream. This rapid stream of air is found around 9 to 14 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) above sea level.

In late January, the average temperatures in the northern United States and southern Canada are still around or below freezing, so even a strong positive anomaly does not actually mean warm temperatures in that region. But, it is interesting to see the rapid shift in temperature anomalies as the pressure systems reposition.

February 2025 is about to start, with the latest weather forecasts indicating a very dynamic month over the United States and Canada. After the power struggle between the cold and warmth at the start of the month, another Polar Vortex lobe looms for the United States around mid-month.

Below is the surface temperature anomaly, averaged for next week. You can see the large supply of colder air over the northern United States and western Canada. Another cooler area is forecast for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.

But most of the central and southern half of the United States is forecast to have above-normal temperatures. We often see such a division in the weather patterns, where the colder and warmer air separate along the jet stream.

Going into the weather trend for the second half of February, we will use the extended-range ensemble forecasts. These forecasts serve as trends that show the prevailing idea of where the pressure systems are positioned and how the airmass is expected to move.

The continuous low-pressure systems over Canada helped to initiate large-scale cold air transport from the Arctic into the United States and Canada, also powered by the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere.

We continue to see the presence of the low-pressure area over Canada in the forecast for February. But the forecast now indicates an interesting core movement of the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere, likely to initiate another deep cold event around mid-month over the United States and Canada.

Impact on Arctic Ice Extents

The 19-year average for January shows Arctic ice extents started at 13.13M km2 and ended the month at 14.36M km2.  2024 started somewhat higher and matched average at the end.  Other recent years have been lower, and 2025 started 540k km2 in deficit and 818k km2 below average at month end. The gap had closed to 400k km2 before losing extents at the end.  SII and MASIE tracked closely this month.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 19-year averages and some recent years.  2007 seven was close to the average, so 2018 is shown for comparison.

Region 2025031 Ave Day 031 2025-Ave. 2018031 2025-2018
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13543740 14362137 -818398 13792271 -248532
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1071001 1070386 614 1070445 556
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 965989 965974 15 965971 18
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087063 74 1087120 18
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897824 21 897845 0
 (5) Kara_Sea 921520 917381 4139 895363 26157
 (6) Barents_Sea 428814 563859 -135044 481947 -53133
 (7) Greenland_Sea 614789 613370 1418 501411 113378
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 1080930 1328380 -247450 1406903 -325972
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854878 853510 1368 853109 1769
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1260903 1260778 125 1260838 66
 (11) Central_Arctic 3211379 3210507 872 3184817 26562
 (12) Bering_Sea 534452 648807  -114354 382206 152245
 (13) Baltic_Sea 39334 62876  -23542 41713.99 -2380
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 559692 823877  -264185 704398 -144707

This year’s ice extent is 818k km2 or 5.7% below average.  About half of the deficit comes from the Pacific basins of Bering and Okhotsk sea.  The other two major losses are in Barents Sea and Baffin Bay.  With the annual maximum typically occurring mid-March, it is likely the ice then will also be lower than usual.   

 

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and NH snow cover.

 

Arctic Shipping Update: NSR Freezes in 10 Days

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The previous post below sounded the alarm about ice halting Arctic shipping early.  October 14, the two Northern Sea Route choke points are in place:  Chukchi (bottom left) blocking entrance to Bering sea, and Laptev (upper left) stopping traffic to European seas. By yesterday  Laptev and East Siberian seas are completely covered, each over 95% of last March max extents. Chukchi is at 50% with its coastline covered. Kara (top left) is also adding ice rapidly. Less obviously Canadian Archipelago (lower center) doubled in 10 days up to 300k km2.

The graph below shows October ice extents on average and for some notable years.

The October gain in ice extents averages ~3.5M km2 up to 8.6M km2.  It is the month adding the most ice each year.  2024 has recovered more slowly than usual or than 2023, tracking along with 2007. The re-freezing has accelerated in the last 10 days.

Ice-strengthened supramax Kumpula (Arc 4) on the NSR being escorted by nuclear icebreaker Vaygach. (Source: Courtesy of ESL Shipping)

The report comes from Malte Humpert at gCaptain  Early Winter Ice Halts Arctic Shipping Traffic Weeks Ahead of Schedule.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The summer shipping window on Russia’s Northern Sea Route is coming to a rapid close weeks ahead of schedule. A number of vessels and convoys are rushing to complete their transits before the route shuts down in the next three weeks.

Source: Northern Sea Route Information Office

Unlike the last couple of summers when Russia’s Arctic coastal waterways were fully clear of sea ice, residual winter ice persisted in the eastern section this year. This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas.

NSRIO: Ice is still present in the eastern sector of the NSR preventing free passage of ships without ice class. The nuclear icebreaker Sibir has been operating in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas since the end of June together with the nuclear icebreaker Vaygach, which has been in the area since mid-July. In several areas of the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas heavy ice conditions are still observed, which directly affects the admission of low ice class vessels to these areas. The western part of the NSR is mostly ice-free. Above is a map of ice conditions as of August 7, 2024.

Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration announced that vessels with no ice class will have to vacate the waterway by October 15, around 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule. For vessels with light and medium ice classifications the navigation season will end on October 20 and October 31 respectively.

The last permitted start of convoys heading east will be October 10, leaving just one more week for vessels to begin their Arctic transit.

This year’s early shutdown comes three years after narrowly avoiding a major incident three years ago. In October 2021 Russian authorities reacted too late to begin closing down the NSR as winter sea ice drifted into the main shipping channel and trapped two dozen vessels for more than a month. A 30 centimeter or one foot thick ice layer had formed by the end of October across hundreds of miles of Arctic Ocean.
 
Several icebreakers, including the powerful nuclear vessel Yamal, rushed to the scene from Murmansk over 3,000 nautical miles away to help free the stranded vessels. Over the course of more than 6 weeks several icebreakers worked to break the vessels free and escort them to safety out of the eastern section of the Northern Sea Route. The situation did not fully resolve until the end of December when the last vessels were freed.

Vessels stuck in thick winter sea ice in November 2021 awaiting rescue. (Source: Rosatomflot)

Currently a number of container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers
and LNG tankers are passing through the route.

In the Far East two LNG carriers and two oil tankers, including the Suezmax tanker Sai Baba, are currently passing through the waters adjacent to the Bering Strait. They are staying clear of multi-year ice around Wrangel Island which has persisted and troubled shipping all summer. A nuclear icebreaker had remained on standby for much of the summer keeping the shipping lane open.

Select container ships, crude oil tankers, and bulk and LNG carriers currently on the NSR. (Source: Shipatlas)

Further west along the route, the first-ever conventional Panamax container ship in the Arctic is about halfway through its transit. The vessel had originally intended to also conduct its return voyage via the Arctic, but will now likely have to return to Asia via the Suez Canal or South Africa route.

A massive Capesize bulk carrier without any ice class, Dodo, is also rushing to complete its eastbound voyage to Caofeidian, China.

 

 

Arctic Shipping Update: NSR Flash Freezing

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The previous post below sounded the alarm about ice halting Arctic shipping early.  Now the two choke points are blocked nine days later. Chukchi sea (left) is blocking entrance to Bering sea.  Laptev (right) is blocking traffic into European Barents and Kara seas.

Ice-strengthened supramax Kumpula (Arc 4) on the NSR being escorted by nuclear icebreaker Vaygach. (Source: Courtesy of ESL Shipping)

The report comes from Malte Humpert at gCaptain  Early Winter Ice Halts Arctic Shipping Traffic Weeks Ahead of Schedule.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The summer shipping window on Russia’s Northern Sea Route is coming to a rapid close weeks ahead of schedule. A number of vessels and convoys are rushing to complete their transits before the route shuts down in the next three weeks.

Source: Northern Sea Route Information Office

Unlike the last couple of summers when Russia’s Arctic coastal waterways were fully clear of sea ice, residual winter ice persisted in the eastern section this year. This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas.

NSRIO: Ice is still present in the eastern sector of the NSR preventing free passage of ships without ice class. The nuclear icebreaker Sibir has been operating in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas since the end of June together with the nuclear icebreaker Vaygach, which has been in the area since mid-July. In several areas of the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas heavy ice conditions are still observed, which directly affects the admission of low ice class vessels to these areas. The western part of the NSR is mostly ice-free. Above is a map of ice conditions as of August 7, 2024.

Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration announced that vessels with no ice class will have to vacate the waterway by October 15, around 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule. For vessels with light and medium ice classifications the navigation season will end on October 20 and October 31 respectively.

The last permitted start of convoys heading east will be October 10, leaving just one more week for vessels to begin their Arctic transit.

This year’s early shutdown comes three years after narrowly avoiding a major incident three years ago. In October 2021 Russian authorities reacted too late to begin closing down the NSR as winter sea ice drifted into the main shipping channel and trapped two dozen vessels for more than a month. A 30 centimeter or one foot thick ice layer had formed by the end of October across hundreds of miles of Arctic Ocean.
 
Several icebreakers, including the powerful nuclear vessel Yamal, rushed to the scene from Murmansk over 3,000 nautical miles away to help free the stranded vessels. Over the course of more than 6 weeks several icebreakers worked to break the vessels free and escort them to safety out of the eastern section of the Northern Sea Route. The situation did not fully resolve until the end of December when the last vessels were freed.

Vessels stuck in thick winter sea ice in November 2021 awaiting rescue. (Source: Rosatomflot)

Currently a number of container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers
and LNG tankers are passing through the route.

In the Far East two LNG carriers and two oil tankers, including the Suezmax tanker Sai Baba, are currently passing through the waters adjacent to the Bering Strait. They are staying clear of multi-year ice around Wrangel Island which has persisted and troubled shipping all summer. A nuclear icebreaker had remained on standby for much of the summer keeping the shipping lane open.

Select container ships, crude oil tankers, and bulk and LNG carriers currently on the NSR. (Source: Shipatlas)

Further west along the route, the first-ever conventional Panamax container ship in the Arctic is about halfway through its transit. The vessel had originally intended to also conduct its return voyage via the Arctic, but will now likely have to return to Asia via the Suez Canal or South Africa route.

A massive Capesize bulk carrier without any ice class, Dodo, is also rushing to complete its eastbound voyage to Caofeidian, China.

Here’s ice activity in last week in the NSR from Chukchi Sea in the east (left side), and threatening in Laptev Sea (right).

Arctic Ice In Perspective 2024

Posted on by Ron Clutz

With Arctic ice melting season winding down, warmists again stoked fears about ice disappearing in the North. In fact, the pattern of Arctic ice seen in historical perspective is not alarming. People are over-thinking and over-analyzing Arctic Ice extents, and getting wrapped around the axle (or should I say axis).  So let’s keep it simple and we can all readily understand what is happening up North.

I have noticed at some other blogs people complain about my monthly Arctic ice updates focusing on extents starting in 2007. This post will show why that time period is entirely reasonable as a subject for analysis. I will use the ever popular NOAA dataset derived from satellite passive microwave sensors.  It sometimes understates the ice extents, but everyone refers to it and it is complete from 1981 to present.  Here’s what NOAA reports (in M km2):

We are frequently told that only the March maximums and the September minimums matter, since the other months are only transitional between the two.  So the graph above shows the mean ice extent, averaging the two months March and September.  The data comes from Sea Ice Index (SII).

If I were adding this to the Ice House of Mirrors, the name would be The X-Ray Ice Mirror, because it looks into the structure of the time series.   For even more clarity and simplicity, here is the table:

NOAA NH Annual Average Ice Extents (in M km2).  Sea Ice Index v3.0 (here)

Year Average Change Rate of Change
1981 11.385    
1997 11.077 -0.308 -0.019 per year
2007 9.405 -1.672 -0.167 per year
2024 9.626  +0.221 +0.013 per year

The satellites involve rocket science, but this does not.  There was a small loss of ice extent over the first 16 years, then a dramatic downturn for 10 years, 9 times the rate as before. That was followed by the current 17-year plateau with a slight gain comparable to the beginning loss.  All the fuss is over that middle period, and we know what caused it.  A lot of multi-year ice was flushed out through the Fram Strait, leaving behind more easily melted younger ice. The effects from that natural occurrence bottomed out in 2007.

Kwok et al say this about the Variability of Fram Strait ice flux:

The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978–1996) is 670,000 km2, ;7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 km2 in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 km2 in 1995. . .The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 km3 ranging from a low of 1375 km3 in the 1990 flux to a high of 2791 km3 in 1994.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261010602/download

Conclusion:

Some complain it is too soon to say Arctic Ice is recovering, or that 2007 is a true change point.  The same people were quick to jump on a declining period after 1996 as evidence of a “Death Spiral.”

Footnote:

No one knows what will happen to Arctic ice.

Except maybe the polar bears.

And they are not talking.

Except, of course, to the admen from Coca-Cola

 

Arctic Shipping Ends Early Due to Growing Ice

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Ice-strengthened supramax Kumpula (Arc 4) on the NSR being escorted by nuclear icebreaker Vaygach. (Source: Courtesy of ESL Shipping)

The report comes from Malte Humpert at gCaptain  Early Winter Ice Halts Arctic Shipping Traffic Weeks Ahead of Schedule.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The summer shipping window on Russia’s Northern Sea Route is coming to a rapid close weeks ahead of schedule. A number of vessels and convoys are rushing to complete their transits before the route shuts down in the next three weeks.

Source: Northern Sea Route Information Office

Unlike the last couple of summers when Russia’s Arctic coastal waterways were fully clear of sea ice, residual winter ice persisted in the eastern section this year. This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas.

NSRIO: Ice is still present in the eastern sector of the NSR preventing free passage of ships without ice class. The nuclear icebreaker Sibir has been operating in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas since the end of June together with the nuclear icebreaker Vaygach, which has been in the area since mid-July. In several areas of the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas heavy ice conditions are still observed, which directly affects the admission of low ice class vessels to these areas. The western part of the NSR is mostly ice-free. Above is a map of ice conditions as of August 7, 2024.

Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration announced that vessels with no ice class will have to vacate the waterway by October 15, around 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule. For vessels with light and medium ice classifications the navigation season will end on October 20 and October 31 respectively.

The last permitted start of convoys heading east will be October 10, leaving just one more week for vessels to begin their Arctic transit.

This year’s early shutdown comes three years after narrowly avoiding a major incident three years ago. In October 2021 Russian authorities reacted too late to begin closing down the NSR as winter sea ice drifted into the main shipping channel and trapped two dozen vessels for more than a month. A 30 centimeter or one foot thick ice layer had formed by the end of October across hundreds of miles of Arctic Ocean.
 
Several icebreakers, including the powerful nuclear vessel Yamal, rushed to the scene from Murmansk over 3,000 nautical miles away to help free the stranded vessels. Over the course of more than 6 weeks several icebreakers worked to break the vessels free and escort them to safety out of the eastern section of the Northern Sea Route. The situation did not fully resolve until the end of December when the last vessels were freed.

Vessels stuck in thick winter sea ice in November 2021 awaiting rescue. (Source: Rosatomflot)

Currently a number of container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers
and LNG tankers are passing through the route.

In the Far East two LNG carriers and two oil tankers, including the Suezmax tanker Sai Baba, are currently passing through the waters adjacent to the Bering Strait. They are staying clear of multi-year ice around Wrangel Island which has persisted and troubled shipping all summer. A nuclear icebreaker had remained on standby for much of the summer keeping the shipping lane open.

Select container ships, crude oil tankers, and bulk and LNG carriers currently on the NSR. (Source: Shipatlas)

Further west along the route, the first-ever conventional Panamax container ship in the Arctic is about halfway through its transit. The vessel had originally intended to also conduct its return voyage via the Arctic, but will now likely have to return to Asia via the Suez Canal or South Africa route.

A massive Capesize bulk carrier without any ice class, Dodo, is also rushing to complete its eastbound voyage to Caofeidian, China.

Here’s ice activity in last week in the NSR from Chukchi Sea in the east (left side), and threatening in Laptev Sea (right).

2024 Arctic Ice Abounds at Average Daily Minimum

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The annual competition between ice and water in the Arctic ocean has reached the maximum for water, which typically occurs mid September.  After that, diminishing energy from the slowly setting sun allows oceanic cooling causing ice to regenerate. Those interested in the dynamics of Arctic sea ice can read numerous posts here.  This post provides a look at mid September from 2007 to yesterday as a context for understanding this year’s annual minimum.

The image above shows Arctic ice extents on day 260 (lowest annual daily extent on average) from 2007 to 2024 yesterday.  Obviously, the regions vary as locations for ice, discussed in more detail later on. The animation shows the ice deficits in years 2007, 2012, 2016, and 2020, as well as surplus years like 2010, 2014, 2022 and 2024.

Note that for climate purposes the annual minimum is measured by the September monthly average ice extent, since the daily extents vary and will go briefly lowest on or about day 260. In a typical year the overall ice extent will end September slightly higher than at the beginning.  2024 September ice extent averaged 4.6M over the first 16 days, and is likely to end the month with at least that amount for the entire month. For comparison, the 17 year average for Sept. 1-16 is 4.7M.

The melting season to mid September shows 2024 tracked lower than average but ended the period slightly above.

The graph above shows September daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note. Day 260 has been the lowest daily ice extent on average for the last 18 years.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents during September decline 358k km2 down to 4.5M Km2 by day 260. The average increase from now on is 490k km2 up to 5.0M km2 end of September.  2024  tracked a little lower than the 18-year average in the second week reaching a low of 4.49M km2 on day 255, before going above average on day 260.

SII was reporting deficits as high as 0.5M km2 (half a Wadham) compared to  MASIE early in September.  For some reason, apparently data access issues, that dataset has not been updated for the last five days.  2023 bottomed out at 4.1M while 2007 daily minimum hit 4.0M, ended ~ 0.5M km2 in deficit to average and 535k km2 less than MASIE on day 260.  2020 ice on day 260 was ~740k km2 in deficit to average.

The main deficit to average is in CAA with a smaller loss in Chukchi, overcome by surpluses almost everywhere, especially in Central Arctic along with Laptev and Greenland seas. And as discussed below, the marginal basins have little ice left to lose.

The Bigger Picture 

We are close to the annual Arctic ice extent minimum, which typically occurs on or about day 260 (mid September). Some take any year’s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image above shows the Arctic heart is beating clear and strong.

Over this decade, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, but since 2007 looks like fluctuations around a plateau. By mid-September, all the peripheral seas have turned to water, and the residual ice shows up in a few places. The table below indicates where we can expect to find ice this September. Numbers are area units of Mkm2 (millions of square kilometers).

Day 260 17 year
Arctic Regions 2007 2010 2014 2016 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 Average 2024
Central Arctic Sea 2.67 3.16 2.98 2.92 2.91 2.50 2.95 3.08 2.96 2.92 2.95
BCE 0.50 1.08 1.38 0.52 1.16 0.65 1.55 0.99 0.50 0.88 1.02
LKB 0.29 0.24 0.19 0.28 0.02 0.00 0.13 0.20 0.39 0.18 0.16
Greenland & CAA 0.56 0.41 0.55 0.45 0.41 0.59 0.50 0.43 0.44 0.47 0.39
B&H Bays 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.05
NH Total 4.05 4.91 5.13 4.20 4.56 3.76 5.17 4.73 4.33 4.49 4.58

The table includes some early years of note along with the last 4 years compared to the 17 year average for five contiguous arctic regions. BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) on the Asian side are quite variable as the largest source of ice other than the Central Arctic itself.   Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) together hold almost 0.5M km2 of ice at annual minimum, fairly consistently.  LKB are the European seas of Laptev, Kara and Barents, a smaller source of ice, but a difference maker some years, as Laptev was in 2016 and 2023.  Baffin and Hudson Bays are inconsequential as of day 260.

2024 extent of 4.58 is 1.3% over average, mainly due to surpluses in Chukchi and East Siberian seas.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high (31% in 2022) before growing back the following winter.  In this context, it is foolhardy to project any summer minimum forward to proclaim the end of Arctic ice.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice

2024 Arctic Ice Beats 2007 by Half a Wadham

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The graph above shows September daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note. Day 260 has been the lowest daily ice extent on average for the last 18 years.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents during September decline 358k km2 down to 4.5M Km2 by day 260. The average increase from now on is 490k km2 up to 5.0M km2 end of September.  2024  tracked a little lower than the 18-year average in the second week reaching a low of 4.49M km2 on day 255, before going above average on day 260. 

SII was reporting deficits as high as 0.5M km2 (half a Wadham) compared to  MASIE early in September.  For some reason, that dataset has not been updated for the last five days.  2023 bottomed out at 4.1M while 2007 daily minimum hit 4.0M, ended ~ 0.5M km2 in deficit to average and 535k km2 less than MASIE on day 260.  2020 ice on day 260 was ~740k km2 in deficit to average.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH June 2024: Oceans Lead Cool Down.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update.

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_levelThe table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 260 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007. At this point in the year, Bering and Okhotsk seas are open water and thus dropped from the table.

Region 2024260 Day 260 ave 2024-Ave. 2007260 2024-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 4581327 4524401 56926 4045776 535551
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 304967 491931 -186963 481384 -176416
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 360456 167361 193095 22527 337929
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 353456 252958 100498 311 353145
 (4) Laptev_Sea 160792 135574 25218 235869 -75076
 (5) Kara_Sea 0 31612 -31612 44067 -44067
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 14610 -14610 7420 -7420
 (7) Greenland_Sea 165965 191196 -25230 333181 -167216
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 53126 29745 23381 26703 26423
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 228869 274428 -45559 225526 3344
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1692 4595 -2903 2270 -578
 (11) Central_Arctic 2950861 2929452 21409 2665243.87 285617

The overall surplus to average is 57k km2, (1.3%).  The major deficit is in Beaufort, offset by large surpluses in Chukchi and East Siberian seas. 

bathymetric_map_arctic_ocean

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

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September Outlook Arctic Ice 2024

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Figure 1. Distribution of SIO contributors for August estimates of September 2024 pan-Arctic sea-ice extent. No Heuristic methods were submitted in August. “Sun” is a public/citizen contribution. Image courtesy of Matthew Fisher, NSIDC.

2024: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network

The August 2024 Outlook received 24 pan-Arctic contributions (Figure 1). This year’s median
forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.27 million square kilometers with
an interquartile range of 4.11 to 4.54 million square kilometers. This is lower than the 2022 (4.83
million square kilometers) and 2023 (4.60 million square kilometers) August median forecasts
for September. . .This reflects relatively rapid ice loss during the month of July, resulting in August
Outlooks revising estimates downward. The lowest sea-ice extent forecast is 3.71 million square
kilometers, from the RASM@NPS submission); the highest sea-ice extent forecast is 5.23
million square kilometers, submitted by BCCR.

These are predictions for the September 2024 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2024 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (18 year average is 2006 to 2023 inclusive).

The graph puts 2024 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2024 was slightly above the 18-year average for the first 5 months, then tracked slightly lower to average through August. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2024 started slightly higher than MASIE the first 3 months, then ran the same as MASIE until dropping in August 400k km2 below MASIE 2024 and also lower than 2007 and 2012.

The table below provides the monthly Arctic ice extent averages for comparisons (all are M km2)

Monthly MASIE 2024 SII 2024 MASIE -SII MASIE 2024-18 YR AVE SII 2024-18 YR AVE MASIE 2024-2007
Jan 14.055 13.917 0.139 0.280 0.333 0.293
Feb 14.772 14.605 0.167 0.096 0.152 0.121
Mar 14.966 14.873 0.093 0.111 0.199 0.344
Apr 14.113 14.131 -0.018 0.021 0.118 0.418
May 12.577 12.783 -0.207 -0.038 0.123 0.150
June 10.744 10.895 -0.151 -0.072 0.024 -0.082
July 8.181 7.884 0.297 -0.107 -0.160 0.188
Aug 5.617 5.214 0.404 -0.267 -0.423 0.033

The first two data columns are the 2024 YTD shown by MASIE and SII, with the MASIE surpluses in column three.  Column four shows MASIE 2024 compared to MASIE 18 year averages, while column five shows SII 2024 compared to SII 18 year averages.  YTD August MASIE and SII are below their averages, SII by nearly half a Wadham. The last column shows MASIE 2024 holding surpluses over 2007 most of the months, and nearly the same in August.

Summary

The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2024 September to be much lower than 2023 and 2022, based largely on the large deficits SII is showing in July and August. The way MASIE is going, this September looks to be lower than its average, but much higher than SII.  While the daily minimum for the year occurs mid September, ice extent on September 30 is typically slightly higher than on September 1.

Footnote:

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year’s charts can not be compared with another year? Researchers do this, including Walt Meier in charge of Sea Ice Index. That said, I understand his interest in directing people to use his product rather than one he does not control. As I have said before:

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset

MASIE: “high-resolution, accurate charts of ice conditions”
Walt Meier, NSIDC, October 2015 article in Annals of Glaciology.

August 2024 Arctic Ice, NOAA Missing Nearly Half a Wadham

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The images above come from AARI (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute) St. Petersburg, Russia. Note how the location of remaining ice at late August varies greatly from year to year.  The marginal seas are open water, including the Pacific basins, Canadian Bays (Hudson and Baffin), and the Atlantic basins for the most part.  Note ice extent fluctuations especially in Eurasian seas (lower right) and in Can-Am seas (upper right).  Notice the much greater ice extent in 2021 compared to 2018. As discussed later on, some regions retain considerable ice at the annual minimum, with differences year to year. [Note: Images prior to 2009 are in a different format.  AARI Charts are (here)

The annual competition between ice and water in the Arctic ocean is approaching the maximum for water, which typically occurs mid September.  After that, diminishing energy from the slowly setting sun allows oceanic cooling causing ice to regenerate. Those interested in the dynamics of Arctic sea ice can read numerous posts here.  This post provides a look at end of August from 2007 to yesterday as a context for anticipating this year’s annual minimum.  Note that for climate purposes the annual minimum is measured by the September monthly average ice extent, since the daily extents vary and will go briefly lowest on or about day 260. In a typical year the overall ice extent will end September slightly higher than at the beginning.

The melting season mid July to mid August shows 2024 melted at nearly the average rate, while retaining more ice extent at the end than some other recent years of note.

Firstly note that on average August shows ice declining 1.8M km2 down to 4.9M km2.  2024 started 288k km2 below average and on day 244 was only 98k km2 or 2% in deficit to average. The extents in Sea Ice Index in orange  were considerably lower during August, meaning that SII August 2024 monthly average will be ~400k km2 lower than MASIE., nearly half a Wadham.

The table for day 244 shows how large how the ice is distributed across the various seas comprising the Arctic Ocean.

Region 2024244 Day 244 ave 2024-Ave. 2007244 2024-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 4802455 4900416 -97962 4525136 277319
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 331017 568911 -237894 629454 -298437
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 508350 261504 246846 96232 412118
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 476831 342187 134644 196 476635
 (4) Laptev_Sea 209967 163938 46029 245578 -35612
 (5) Kara_Sea 253 47999 -47746 74307 -74054
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 15867 -15867 11061 -11061
 (7) Greenland_Sea 101048 171695 -70647 288223 -187174
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 51428 26156 25272 32804 18624
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 224943 301460 -76516 234389 -9445
 (10) Hudson_Bay 3868 19658 -15790 28401 -24533
 (11) Central_Arctic 2893622 2980244 -86622 2883200.58 10421

The largest deficit to average is in Beaufort Sea, followed by smaller losses in Greenland Sea, CAA and Central Arctic.   Hudson Bay and Barents Sea are mostly open water. The offsetting surpluses are in Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev seas.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter. Presently 2024 is at 32% of last March maximum.  In this context, it is foolhardy to project any summer minimum forward to proclaim the end of Arctic ice.

Resources:  Climate Compilation II Arctic Sea Ice