Green Electricity Facts on the Ground

Francis Menton writes at Manhattan Contrarian How About A Pilot Project To Demonstrate The Feasibility Of Fully Wind/Solar/Battery Electricity Generation?  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.H\T John Ray

At this current crazy moment, most of the “Western” world (Europe, the U.S., Canada, Australia) is hell bent on achieving a “net zero” energy system. As I understand this concept, it means that, within two or three decades, all electricity production will be converted from the current mostly-fossil-fuel generation mix to almost entirely wind, solar and storage. On top of that, all or nearly all energy consumption that is not currently electricity (e.g., transportation, industry, heat, agriculture) must be converted to electricity, so that the energy for these things can also be supplied solely by the wind, sun, and batteries. Since electricity is currently only about a quarter of final energy consumption, that means that we are soon to have an all-electric energy generation and consumption system producing around four times the output of our current electricity system, all from wind and solar, backed up as necessary only by batteries or other storage.

A reasonable question is, has anybody thought to construct a small-to-moderate scale pilot project to demonstrate that this is feasible? Before embarking on “net zero” for a billion people, how about trying it out in a place with, say, 10,000, or 50,000, or 100,000 people. See if it can actually work, and how much it will cost. Then, if it works at reasonable cost, start expanding it.

As far as I can determine, that has never been done anywhere. However, there is something somewhat close. An island called El Hierro, which is one of the Canary Islands and is part of Spain, embarked more than a decade ago on constructing an electricity system consisting only of wind turbines and a pumped-storage water reservoir. El Hierro has a population of about 11,000. It is a very mountainous volcanic island, so it provided a fortuitous location for construction of a large pumped-storage hydro project, with an upper reservoir in an old volcanic crater right up a near-cliff from a lower reservoir just above sea level. The difference in elevation of the two reservoirs is about 660 meters, or more than 2000 feet. Here is a picture of the upper reservoir, looking down to the ocean, to give you an idea of just how favorable a location for pumped-storage hydro this is:

The El Hierro wind/storage system began operations in 2015. How has it done? I would say that it is at best a huge disappointment, really bordering on disaster. It has never come close to realizing the dream of 100% wind/storage electricity for El Hierro, instead averaging 50% or less when averaged over a full year (although it has had some substantial periods over 50%). Moreover, since only about one-quarter of El HIerro’s final energy consumption is electricity, the project has replaced barely 10% of El Hierro’s fossil fuel consumption.

Over at the website page for production statistics, it’s still more excitement about tons of carbon emissions avoided (15,484 in 2020!) and hours of 100% renewable generation (1293 in 2020!). I think that they’re hoping you don’t know that there are 8784 hours in a 366 day year like 2020.

So why don’t they just build the system a little bigger? After all, if this system can provide around 50% +/- of El Hierro’s electricity, can’t you just double it in size to get to 100%? The answer is, absolutely not. The 50% can be achieved only with those diesel generators always present to provide full backup when needed. Without that, you need massively more storage to get you through what could be weeks of wind drought, let alone through wind seasonality that means that you likely need 30 days’ or more full storage.

Then take a look at the picture and see if you can figure out where or how El Hierro is going to build that 40 times bigger reservoir. Time to look into a few billions of dollars worth of lithium ion batteries — for 11,000 people.

And of course, for those of us here in the rest of the world, we don’t have massive volcanic craters sitting 2000 feet right up a cliff from the sea. For us, it’s batteries or nothing. Or maybe just stick with the fossil fuels for now.

So the closest thing we have to a “demonstration project” of the fully wind/storage electricity has come up woefully short, and really has only proved that the whole concept will necessarily fail on the necessity of far more storage than is remotely practical or affordable. The idea that our political betters plow forward toward “net zero” without any demonstration of feasibility I find completely incomprehensible.

See also Green Electrical Shocks

 

 

7 comments

  1. jelorenzo · January 31

    The case of the pilot project at El Hierro island was followed and documented by the late Roger Andrews here https://euanmearns.com/?s=Hierro, the last report appeared just a month before he passed away. Unfortunately this website Energy Matters, although always available, has discontinued its operation.

    Liked by 1 person

    • kakatoa · February 5

      Roger would of enjoyed discussing how net metering has hit unsustainable proportions in CA.
      https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2022/01/10/californias-misguided-rooftop-solar-debate/

      Like

      • Ron Clutz · February 5

        Thanks for the link kakatoa. I note the author Borenstein writing from UC Berkeley supports solar energy, just uncomfortable that the middle and lower classes pay the bill for the wealthy installers of rooftop panels. Pretty sure that Roger was outspoken about the futility of thinking wind and solar could replace fossil fuels. He posted this image:

        It shows the reliance of the G20 nations on energy sources.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. Michael Lewis · January 31

    It is impossible to supply our current global energy demand with so-called renewable energy sources, sun, wind, geothermal, tides, hydro, and biomass. (None of these are truly renewable as they all require infrastructure built and maintained with finite material sources). Dispersed energy sources demand dispersed point of use energy production. Small scale demonstration projects cannot be scaled up to global systems.

    The first step in any sane energy policy is to drastically reduce energy demand, increase point of use energy production, and drastically reduce global resource throughout.

    Like

  3. Alonso · January 31

    I live on an island in that archipelago, and everything that surrounds this issue is purely and simply a very expensive eccentricity that has been shoehorned into public opinion and the public funds that the Spanish state receives and reinvests at the expense of of the European funds we receive from the European Union. One more of the inconsistencies of the socialist states that a majority of countries in Western Europe have become.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Ron Clutz · January 31

      Thanks for commenting Alonso. When a notion can’t be scaled to be a viable solution, other choices than wind or solar must be adopted.

      Like

  4. Pingback: Green Electricity Facts on the Ground — Science Matters – Science is distorted by progressive philosophy

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