Gwyn Morgan explains at Financial Post Hard facts puncture anti-fossil fuel fantasies. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.
The belief that 84% of global energy supplied by oil and gas can be replaced by so-called ‘green energy’ is a fantasy
The marvelous Christmas movie Polar Express, starring the inimitable Tom Hanks, ends with the words “anything is possible, if you only believe.” Except, as adults understand, many things aren’t possible, not even if some people do believe them. An obvious example is the fantasy that the 84 per cent of global energy supplied by oil and gas can be replaced by so-called “green energy.”
Since the first UN COP (“Conference of the Parties”) meeting in 1995, world oil demand has increased from 64 to 100 million barrels per day. But even as demand increased, the “environmental, social and governance” (ESG) movement encouraged investors to unload their oil industry holdings. Faced with share valuations reflecting their perceived status as a “sunset Industry,” the rational course for oil company leaders was to pay out large dividends rather than reinvest in production growth. As demand grew, supply therefore stagnated. The Ukraine crisis revealed just how narrow the supply margin has become. Regrettably, most of that margin is in the hands of Vladimir Putin, leaving European countries that depend on Russian oil no choice but to continue to provide the funds with which he ravages the Ukrainian people.
This is the tragedy sanctimonious ESG zealots have wrought.
Meanwhile, back in the world capital of “if you only believe” fantasies, the prime minister of a country endowed with one of the world’s largest reserves of oil has presided over a seven-year long anti-oil industry scourge, thwarting multiple proposed export pipelines that could now have been supplying those captive market countries.
Sharing his anti-oil zealotry seems to be a necessary qualification for Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney recently went to Washington to present the Senate Energy Committee with plans to increase Canadian oil exports, thereby freeing-up more U.S. oil to help Europe reduce Russian oil purchases. The idea received a warm reception. Unfortunately, Kenney’s message was promptly contradicted by Federal Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who told the same committee that shifting to renewables and hydrogen “will provide true energy and national security to Europe.” In other words, don’t count on Canada to help de-fund Putin’s murderous war unless it lasts five or ten more years.
It’s incomprehensible that during a global oil and gas shortage brought on by the wanton destruction of a civilized democracy, our prime minister thinks all will be well if only Canada rids itself of fossil-fueled vehicles. Deep in delusion, he considers this a perfect time to announce a plan to have 60 per cent of new cars and light duty trucks be “zero emission” by 2030.
When you live in a perennial state of fantasy, facts don’t matter. But here are facts that do matter to Canadians forced to face the real-world impact.
Fact 1: High cost. The federal budget promises a $5000/vehicle rebate. There are 24 million gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles in Canada. Subsidizing replacement of just one million would cost $5 billion. The budget also contains $900 million for new charging stations. That’s helpful in urban centres but providing a charging station network necessary to allow e-vehicles to travel interurban highways would cost tens of billions more.
Fact 2: Revenue needs. The Trudeau government’s longer-term plan is to get rid of all fossil-fueled vehicles. Federal and provincial fuel taxes now total a stunning $22 billion each and every year. These revenues fund the cost of building and maintaining urban streets and highways. How long can it be before governments are forced to regain those revenues from electrical vehicle charging levies?
Fact 3: Grid stress. The average Canadian motorist drives 15,000 km per year and the average electric passenger vehicle uses 19 kw/hr per 100 km. That works out to 2,850 kw/hr per year, more than 25 per cent of current Canadian household consumption. Many of the country’s electrical generation and distribution grids are already near capacity. Electric vehicle advocates say the problem will be mitigated by mandating low amperage during off-peak, late-night hours. But most highway drivers travel during the day when the grid is near capacity. And they will need high-amperage DC quick-chargers during these already supply-tight hours.
Fact 4: Land demand. Refueling with gasoline or diesel takes around five minutes. But even rapid chargers need 30 minutes. That means six times more land occupied by charging stations. How much of that land will be taken from agricultural production?
Fact 5: More emissions, not fewer. Canada’s 24 million fossil-fueled cars and pickup trucks emit 14 per cent of the country’s 1.5 per cent share of global emissions. If all 24 million were converted to battery power, global emissions would be reduced by just two-tenths of one per cent. Emissions growth from China’s coal-fired power plants would offset that in just a few days. And that two-tenths of a per cent doesn’t count emissions produced from mining and transporting the materials that go into all those batteries. Nor does it consider that 20 per cent of Canada’s electricity is generated with fossil fuels.
Those factors clearly wipe out any benefit, unless we include the benefit that living a fantasy allows people, our leader included, not to have to think about all those Ukrainians we could have saved by helping Europe say “no” to Russia’s oil — if only our oil industry hadn’t been hamstrung.
This is another outstanding essay that lays out the reality of the importance of fossil fuel energy to meet our everyday needs. I hope many elected officials and regulators read this and think. This is consistent with the writings and posts of Donn Dears, Ken Haapala, Judith Curry, George and Bill Holliday and many other realists that understand energy and economic prosperity. Thank you for writing and posting. Dick Storm
Thanks Dick, I know you are also working hard at your blog to get some critical intelligence out there. I worry that political leaders are impervious to analyses skeptical of the climate crisis narrative, though take some comment the original essay was published in the Financial Post. I posted it with window dressing to hopefully draw additional attention and occasion second thoughts about the dogma.
California is having a hole my beer moment with respect to the Canadian energy fantasy.
They have a 100% target for eliminating all new car sales by 2035. They already have a 30% electricity generation deficit. They are also planning to shut down the last nuke plant, another 5% loss in total generation in 3 years.
They have no intent on allowing any reality to step onto their virus signaling orgy.
Add to this, they are attempting to buy out the leases of all offshore permits. And enact more NIMBY regulation to shut down the extraction industry.
All to import a the deficit from foreign sources.
California will become the new Jonestown. The rich elite that control policy won’t care. But the other 95% of the state will be forced to leave(if they can) or get buried in the NIMBY fantasy.
Can’t wait until 2024, when Gov Newsom makes his crowning achievement to be President.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.