The image is an animation of MASIE ice charts over the last 16 days from Nov. 21 to yesterday, Dec. 7, 2019.   At the top is Kara Sea icing, along with Barents, both higher than the 12 year average at this time.  On the left Laptev and East Siberian have filled with ice.  Chukchi on the bottom left was mostly water, but in the last two weeks added 250k km2 up to 742k km2, now 77% of March maximum.  Bottom center shows Beaufort Sea and CAA filled with ice. On the right, Hudson Bay is making great progress freezing from its west coast inward, tripling in two weeks up to 816k km2, 65% of March max.

MASIE daily results for mid November to yesterday show 2019 ice recovering steadily, reducing the deficit to average.
Because several seas are already maxed out, Arctic ice extent recovery slows down in this period, going on average (2007 through 2018 inclusive) from 10M km2 to 12.3M km2.  2019 was as much as 600k km2 below average a week ago, but has now halved that deficit, with the accelerating freezing of shallow Hudson Bay.  Both MASIE and SII 2019 tracks are matching 2018, converging on the 12 year average, and ahead of both 2016 and 2007.

The table for day 341 shows distribution of ice across the regions making up the Arctic ocean.

Region	2019341	Day 341 Average	2019-Ave.	2007341	2019-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11291517	11589573	-298056	10895496	396021
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1069314	1341	1058293	12362
(2) Chukchi_Sea	742243	858135	-115892	631443	110801
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1084944	1082660	2284	1042607	42337
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897834	10	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	930183	821052	109132	811361	118822
(6) Barents_Sea	356907	294913	61995	216824	140083
(7) Greenland_Sea	504346	560612	-56266	488047	16300
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	606755	785677	-178922	744348	-137593
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853080	1202	852556	1726
(10) Hudson_Bay	816467	850137	-33669	894568	-78101
(11) Central_Arctic	3211488	3197839	13649	3176298	35190
(12) Bering_Sea	123482	190201	-66719	39832	83650
(13) Baltic_Sea	5497	6999	-1502	2898	2599
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	84415	115149	-30734	37290	47125

Presently 2019 ice extent according to MASIE is 298k km2 (2.6%) below the 12 year average and 400k km2 more than 2007. Most of the deficit to average is in Chukchi Sea, along with Baffin and Hudson Bays a little late refreezing this year.  The Pacific Bering and Okhotsk seas have barely started with ice. Other places are close to normal, with Kara and Barents Seas showing surpluses.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.

 The image is an animation of MASIE ice charts over the last three weeks from Oct.1 to yesterday, Nov.20, 2019.   At the top is Kara Sea icing, along with Barents, both higher than the 12 year average at this time.  On the left Laptev and East Siberian have filled with ice.  Chukchi on the bottom was mostly water, but in 3 weeks tripled from 170k km2 up to 518k km2, now 54% of March maximum.  Bottom right shows Beaufort Sea and CAA filled with ice. On the right, Hudson Bay has begun freezing down its west coast, while Baffin Bay is freezing southward.  Both of these bays are slower than average and a main reason 2019 NH ice extent remains below average presently.

MASIE daily results for November show 2019 ice recovering steadily, reducing the deficit to average.
Note that Arctic ice recovers strongly in November going on average (2007 through 2018 inclusive) from 8.6M km2 to 11.1M km2.  2019 ended October as much as 654k km2 below average, but now shows a deficit of 296k km2.  All of the tracks appear to be converging except for 2016, which had a much slower pace of refreezing.

The table for day 324 shows distribution of ice across the regions making up the Arctic ocean.

Region	2019324	Day 324 Average	2019-Ave.	2007324	2019-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	9888503	10184933	-296430	10069799	-181296
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1063360	1066882	-3523	1046467	16892
(2) Chukchi_Sea	517822	702499	-184678	622683	-104861
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1083955	1077768	6187	1059995	23959
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897094	751	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	807562	674120	133443	760883	46680
(6) Barents_Sea	255306	178393	76913	130915	124391
(7) Greenland_Sea	502301	490127	12174	546284	-43983
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	362245	600845	-238600	532589	-170343
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	851989	2294	852142	2141
(10) Hudson_Bay	256575	374668	-118093	380911	-124336
(11) Central_Arctic	3206293	3171926	34367	3184762	21531

Presently 2019 ice extent according to MASIE is 296k km2 (3%) below the 12 year average and 181k km2 less than 2007. Most of the deficit to average is in Chukchi Sea, along with Baffin and Hudson Bays refreezing slowly this year.  Other places are close to normal, with Kara and Barents Seas showing surpluses.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.

The image is an animation of MASIE ice charts over the last two weeks.  Upper right is Kara Sea icing, upper center is Laptev freezing over, and upper left is East Siberian filling with ice.  Chukchi on the left is still mostly water, and along with Beaufort Sea the main reason 2019 NH ice extent remains below average at this time.

MASIE daily results for October show 2019 recovering slowly early on, then adding ice faster the second half of the month.
Note that Arctic ice recovers strongly in October going on average (2007 through 2018 inclusive) from 5M km2 to 8.6 M km2.  2019 was as much as 1.3M km2 below average mid-October, before ending the month 654k km2 down..The graph shows 2018 and 2007 matching with 2019 converging as of October 31.  SII and MASIE show the same average for the month with SII about 170k km2 lower at the end.

The table for day 304 shows distribution of ice across the regions making up the Arctic ocean.

Region	2019304	Day 304 Average	2019-Ave.	2007304	2019-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	7873831	8527820	-653989	8175072	-301241
(1) Beaufort_Sea	700342	956166	-255824	1038126	-337784
(2) Chukchi_Sea	169401	471301	-301900	242685	-73284
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	959948	949415	10532	835071	124876
(4) Laptev_Sea	795682	879595	-83913	887789	-92107
(5) Kara_Sea	568308	462083	106225	311960	256348
(6) Barents_Sea	165838	79203	86635	52823	113015
(7) Greenland_Sea	430074	403101	26973	443559	-13485
(8)Baffin_Bay_Gulf_St._Lawrence	120175	277951	-157775	289374	-169198
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	727405	785367	-57963	817220	-89816
(10) Hudson_Bay	3816	82445	-78629	48845	-45029
(11) Central_Arctic	3222143	3169720	52423	3206345	15798

Presently 2019 ice extent according to MASIE is 654k km2 (8%) below the 12 year average and 301k km2 less than 2007. Most of the deficit to average is in the Pacific seas of Beaufort and Chukchi. along with Baffin and Hudson Bays refreezing slowly this year.  Other places are close to normal, with Central Arctic higher than average and much greater than 2007.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.

The animated Canadian ice chart shows complete closure of the Queen Maude region in recent days on both sides of Bellot Strait.  In the last 2 weeks ice extent in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago doubled, now at 590k km2, 70% of its maximum in March. Below is some detail from a previous post.

The animation of Canadian ice charts shows the Northwest Passage filling with ice over the last two weeks, choking off the open water. In the top center, ice grows south in Peel Sound closing access from Resolute.  Meanwhile in the center left ice is pushing down M’Clintock channel and filling in Victoria Strait.  As of yesterday, the two ice masses joined to block the Bellot strait from Fort Ross to the east.

The graph below shows the ice recovery since day 260, the average daily minimum for the year.

The graph shows the tracks converging while remaining below the 12 year average.  Note the average annual minimum is 4.5M km2.  While 2019 was well below that on day 260, just two weeks later 2019 ice extent reached the 4.5M km2 level on day 274.

Background on Northwest Passage September 1, 2019

Background information is reprinted later on.  Above shows the last two weeks of shifting ice concentrations in the NWP choke point, Queen Maud region. Aug. 19 Prince Regent Inlet, top center was plugged, while Peel Sound, top left opened up and allowed passage.  In just a week or so, Prince Regent turned green (<3/10 covered) to blue.  At the same time thick ice dissipated in Franklin Strait, center left, opening the way SW. In just the last few days a tongue of thick ice has formed at the extreme top of Peel Sound, obstructing entrance from the north.

Note on the map right edge the reference to Foxe Basin, a body of open water south of Baffin Island.  The channel connecting into Gulf of Boothia is blocked most years, but was open in 2016, and passable now.  This is an alternate NWP route when Bellot Strait is also open.

This is today’s map of vessels in the NWP.  Cargo ships in green, tugs in cyan, Passenger ships in blue, yachts in purple.  Note that Peel Sound was the preferred route earlier, now ships are using Bellot strait.

Less Artic Ice This year

The CAA region (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) shown above has much less ice this year, along with most of the Arctic ocean.

As the graph shows, MASIE ice extent this year is presently as low as 2012, year of the Great Arctic Cyclone.  SII is showing about 300k km2 more ice, and matching MASIE 2018 and 2007.  All are below the 12 year average at Sept. 1 (day 244).

Background:  The Outlook in 2007

From Sea Ice in Canada’s Arctic: Implications for Cruise Tourism by Stewart et al. December 2007. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Although cruise travel to the Canadian Arctic has grown steadily since 1984, some commentators have suggested that growth in this sector of the tourism industry might accelerate, given the warming effects of climate change that are making formerly remote Canadian Arctic communities more accessible to cruise vessels. Using sea-ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, we argue that Global Climate Model predictions of an ice-free Arctic as early as 2050-70 may lead to a false sense of optimism regarding the potential exploitation of all Canadian Arctic waters for tourism purposes. This is because climate warming is altering the character and distribution of sea ice, increasing the likelihood of hull-penetrating, high-latitude, multi-year ice that could cause major pitfalls for future navigation in some places in Arctic Canada. These changes may have negative implications for cruise tourism in the Canadian Arctic, and, in particular, for tourist transits through the Northwest Passage and High Arctic regions.

The most direct route through the Northwest Passage is via Viscount Melville Sound into the M’Clure Strait and around the coast of Banks Island. Unfortunately, this route is marred by difficult ice, particularly in the M’Clure Strait and in Viscount Melville Sound, as large quantities of multi-year ice enter this region from the Canadian Basin and through the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

As Figure 5 illustrates, difficult ice became particularly evident, hence problematic, as sea-ice concentration within these regions increased from 1968 to 2005; as well, significant increases in multi-year ice are present off the western coast of Banks Island as well. Howell and Yackel (2004) illustrated that ice conditions within this region during the 1969–2002 navigation seasons exhibited greater severity from 1969 to1979 than from 1991 to 2002. This variability likely is a reflection of the extreme light-ice season present in 1998(Atkinson et al., 2006), from which the region has since recovered. Cruise ships could use the Prince of Wales Strait to avoid the choke points on the western coast of Banks Island, but entry is difficult; indeed, Howell and Yackel (2004) showed virtually no change in ease of navigation from 1969 to 2002.

An alternative, longer route through the Northwest Passage passes through either Peel Sound or the Bellot Strait. The latter route potentially could avoid hazardous multi-year ice in Peel Sound, but its narrow passageway makes it unfeasible for use by larger vessels. Regardless of which route is selected, a choke point remains in the vicinity of the Victoria Strait (Fig. 5). This strait acts as a drain trap for multi-year ice that has entered the M’Clintock Channel region and gradually advances south-ward (Howell and Yackel, 2004; Howell et al., 2006). While Howell and Yackel (2004) showed slightly safer navigation conditions from 1991 to 2002 compared to 1969 to 1990, they attributed this improvement to the anomalous warm year of 1998 that removed most of the multi-year ice in the region. From 2000 to 2005, when conditions began to recover from the 1998 warming, atmospheric forcing was insufficient to break up the multi-year ice that entered the M’Clintock Channel. Instead the ice became mobile, flowing southward into the Victoria Strait as the surrounding first-year ice broke up earlier (Howell et al., 2006).

During the past 20 years, cruises gradually have become an important element of Canadian Arctic tourism, and currently there seems to be consensus about the cruise industry’s inevitable growth, especially in the vicinity of Baffin Bay. However, we have stressed the likelihood that sea-ice hazards will continue to exist and will present ongoing navigational challenges to tour operators, particularly those operating in the western regions of the Canadian Arctic.

Fast Forward to Summer of 2018:  Northwest Passage Proved Impassable

Reprinted from post on September 3, 2018:  News today from the Northwest Passage blog that S/V CRYSTAL has given up after hanging around Fort Ross hoping for a storm or melting to break the ice barrier blocking their way west.

As the vessel tracker shows, they have been forced to Plan C, which is returning to Greenland and accept that the NW Passage is closed this year. The latest ice chart gave them no hope for getting through.  Note yachts can sail through green (3/10), so the hope is for red to yellow to green.  But that did not happen last year.

The image below shows the ice with which they were coping.

More details at NW Passage blog 20180902 S/V CRYSTAL and S/V ATKA give up and retreat back to Greenland – Score ICE 3 vs YACHTS 0

 

The animation of Canadian ice charts shows the Northwest Passage filling with ice over the last two weeks, choking off the open water. In the top center, ice grows south in Peel Sound closing access from Resolute.  Meanwhile in the center left ice is pushing down M’Clintock channel and flling in Victoria Strait.  As of yesterday, the two ice masses joined to block the Bellot strait from Fort Ross to the east.

The graph below shows the ice recovery since day 260, the average daily minimum for the year.

The graph shows the tracks converging while remaining below the 12 year average.  Note the average annual minimum is 4.5M km2.  While 2019 was well below that on day 260, just two weeks later 2019 ice extent reached the 4.5M km2 level on day 274.

Background on Northwest Passage September 1, 2019

Background information is reprinted later on.  Above shows the last two weeks of shifting ice concentrations in the NWP choke point, Queen Maud region. Aug. 19 Prince Regent Inlet, top center was plugged, while Peel Sound, top left opened up and allowed passage.  In just a week or so, Prince Regent turned green (<3/10 covered) to blue.  At the same time thick ice dissipated in Franklin Strait, center left, opening the way SW. In just the last few days a tongue of thick ice has formed at the extreme top of Peel Sound, obstructing entrance from the north.

Note on the map right edge the reference to Foxe Basin, a body of open water south of Baffin Island.  The channel connecting into Gulf of Boothia is blocked most years, but was open in 2016, and passable now.  This is an alternate NWP route when Bellot Strait is also open.

This is today’s map of vessels in the NWP.  Cargo ships in green, tugs in cyan, Passenger ships in blue, yachts in purple.  Note that Peel Sound was the preferred route earlier, now ships are using Bellot strait.

Less Artic Ice This year

The CAA region (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) shown above has much less ice this year, along with most of the Arctic ocean.

As the graph shows, MASIE ice extent this year is presently as low as 2012, year of the Great Arctic Cyclone.  SII is showing about 300k km2 more ice, and matching MASIE 2018 and 2007.  All are below the 12 year average at Sept. 1 (day 244).

Background:  The Outlook in 2007

From Sea Ice in Canada’s Arctic: Implications for Cruise Tourism by Stewart et al. December 2007. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Although cruise travel to the Canadian Arctic has grown steadily since 1984, some commentators have suggested that growth in this sector of the tourism industry might accelerate, given the warming effects of climate change that are making formerly remote Canadian Arctic communities more accessible to cruise vessels. Using sea-ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, we argue that Global Climate Model predictions of an ice-free Arctic as early as 2050-70 may lead to a false sense of optimism regarding the potential exploitation of all Canadian Arctic waters for tourism purposes. This is because climate warming is altering the character and distribution of sea ice, increasing the likelihood of hull-penetrating, high-latitude, multi-year ice that could cause major pitfalls for future navigation in some places in Arctic Canada. These changes may have negative implications for cruise tourism in the Canadian Arctic, and, in particular, for tourist transits through the Northwest Passage and High Arctic regions.

The most direct route through the Northwest Passage is via Viscount Melville Sound into the M’Clure Strait and around the coast of Banks Island. Unfortunately, this route is marred by difficult ice, particularly in the M’Clure Strait and in Viscount Melville Sound, as large quantities of multi-year ice enter this region from the Canadian Basin and through the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

As Figure 5 illustrates, difficult ice became particularly evident, hence problematic, as sea-ice concentration within these regions increased from 1968 to 2005; as well, significant increases in multi-year ice are present off the western coast of Banks Island as well. Howell and Yackel (2004) illustrated that ice conditions within this region during the 1969–2002 navigation seasons exhibited greater severity from 1969 to1979 than from 1991 to 2002. This variability likely is a reflection of the extreme light-ice season present in 1998(Atkinson et al., 2006), from which the region has since recovered. Cruise ships could use the Prince of Wales Strait to avoid the choke points on the western coast of Banks Island, but entry is difficult; indeed, Howell and Yackel (2004) showed virtually no change in ease of navigation from 1969 to 2002.

An alternative, longer route through the Northwest Passage passes through either Peel Sound or the Bellot Strait. The latter route potentially could avoid hazardous multi-year ice in Peel Sound, but its narrow passageway makes it unfeasible for use by larger vessels. Regardless of which route is selected, a choke point remains in the vicinity of the Victoria Strait (Fig. 5). This strait acts as a drain trap for multi-year ice that has entered the M’Clintock Channel region and gradually advances south-ward (Howell and Yackel, 2004; Howell et al., 2006). While Howell and Yackel (2004) showed slightly safer navigation conditions from 1991 to 2002 compared to 1969 to 1990, they attributed this improvement to the anomalous warm year of 1998 that removed most of the multi-year ice in the region. From 2000 to 2005, when conditions began to recover from the 1998 warming, atmospheric forcing was insufficient to break up the multi-year ice that entered the M’Clintock Channel. Instead the ice became mobile, flowing southward into the Victoria Strait as the surrounding first-year ice broke up earlier (Howell et al., 2006).

During the past 20 years, cruises gradually have become an important element of Canadian Arctic tourism, and currently there seems to be consensus about the cruise industry’s inevitable growth, especially in the vicinity of Baffin Bay. However, we have stressed the likelihood that sea-ice hazards will continue to exist and will present ongoing navigational challenges to tour operators, particularly those operating in the western regions of the Canadian Arctic.

Fast Forward to Summer of 2018:  Northwest Passage Proved Impassable

Reprinted from post on September 3, 2018:  News today from the Northwest Passage blog that S/V CRYSTAL has given up after hanging around Fort Ross hoping for a storm or melting to break the ice barrier blocking their way west.

As the vessel tracker shows, they have been forced to Plan C, which is returning to Greenland and accept that the NW Passage is closed this year. The latest ice chart gave them no hope for getting through.  Note yachts can sail through green (3/10), so the hope is for red to yellow to green.  But that did not happen last year.

The image below shows the ice with which they were coping.

More details at NW Passage blog 20180902 S/V CRYSTAL and S/V ATKA give up and retreat back to Greenland – Score ICE 3 vs YACHTS 0

 

The animation shows ice rebuilding in the Northwest Passage over the last two weeks, doubling the extent and choking off the open water.  In the center, ice grows eastward in Barrow Strait closing access to Resolute, and shutting the northern entrance to Peel Sound.  Meanwhile in the center bottom ice is pushing down M’Clintock channel and flling in Victoria Strait.  There is still some open water for yachts to pass. but the direct routes are closing fast.

The current Canadian ice chart shows Peel Sound blocked at the top and Victoria Strait lower down.  The open passage goes around King William island. to reach Cambridge Bay in the west.  The graph below shows the ice recovery since day 260, the average daily minimum for the year.

Background on Northwest Passage September 1, 2019

Background information is reprinted later on.  Above shows the last two weeks of shifting ice concentrations in the NWP choke point, Queen Maud region. Aug. 19 Prince Regent Inlet, top center was plugged, while Peel Sound, top left opened up and allowed passage.  In just a week or so, Prince Regent turned green (<3/10 covered) to blue.  At the same time thick ice dissipated in Franklin Strait, center left, opening the way SW. In just the last few days a tongue of thick ice has formed at the extreme top of Peel Sound, obstructing entrance from the north.

Note on the map right edge the reference to Foxe Basin, a body of open water south of Baffin Island.  The channel connecting into Gulf of Boothia is blocked most years, but was open in 2016, and passable now.  This is an alternate NWP route when Bellot Strait is also open.

This is today’s map of vessels in the NWP.  Cargo ships in green, tugs in cyan, Passenger ships in blue, yachts in purple.  Note that Peel Sound was the preferred route earlier, now ships are using Bellot strait.

Less Artic Ice This year

The CAA region (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) shown above has much less ice this year, along with most of the Arctic ocean.

As the graph shows, MASIE ice extent this year is presently as low as 2012, year of the Great Arctic Cyclone.  SII is showing about 300k km2 more ice, and matching MASIE 2018 and 2007.  All are below the 12 year average at Sept. 1 (day 244).  The table below provides the numbers by regions.

Region	2019244	Day 244 Average	2019-Ave.	2018244	2019-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4113725	4857617	-743892	4514946	-401222
(1) Beaufort_Sea	362877	531979	-169101	529700	-166823
(2) Chukchi_Sea	139335	219474	-80139	178633	-39299
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	96512	356347	-259835	475647	-379135
(4) Laptev_Sea	102556	172240	-69684	21366	81190
(5) Kara_Sea	2479	40884	-38405	235	2244
(6) Barents_Sea	23037	21055	1981	0	23037
(7) Greenland_Sea	127514	171819	-44304	79706	47808
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	10485	27726	-17241	28385	-17900
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	238187	307540	-69353	364406	-126219
(10) Hudson_Bay	0	21905	-21905	23268	-23268
(11) Central_Arctic	3010000	2985788	24211	2813056	196944

The NH ice extent is 744k km2 or 15% below average.  Most of the deficit is in the first four regions, BCE and Laptev.  CAA is almost 70k km2 or 23% below its average.  Other regions have smaller deficits and Central Arctic is in slight surplus.

Background:  The Outlook in 2007

From Sea Ice in Canada’s Arctic: Implications for Cruise Tourism by Stewart et al. December 2007. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Although cruise travel to the Canadian Arctic has grown steadily since 1984, some commentators have suggested that growth in this sector of the tourism industry might accelerate, given the warming effects of climate change that are making formerly remote Canadian Arctic communities more accessible to cruise vessels. Using sea-ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, we argue that Global Climate Model predictions of an ice-free Arctic as early as 2050-70 may lead to a false sense of optimism regarding the potential exploitation of all Canadian Arctic waters for tourism purposes. This is because climate warming is altering the character and distribution of sea ice, increasing the likelihood of hull-penetrating, high-latitude, multi-year ice that could cause major pitfalls for future navigation in some places in Arctic Canada. These changes may have negative implications for cruise tourism in the Canadian Arctic, and, in particular, for tourist transits through the Northwest Passage and High Arctic regions.

The most direct route through the Northwest Passage is via Viscount Melville Sound into the M’Clure Strait and around the coast of Banks Island. Unfortunately, this route is marred by difficult ice, particularly in the M’Clure Strait and in Viscount Melville Sound, as large quantities of multi-year ice enter this region from the Canadian Basin and through the Queen Elizabeth Islands.

As Figure 5 illustrates, difficult ice became particularly evident, hence problematic, as sea-ice concentration within these regions increased from 1968 to 2005; as well, significant increases in multi-year ice are present off the western coast of Banks Island as well. Howell and Yackel (2004) illustrated that ice conditions within this region during the 1969–2002 navigation seasons exhibited greater severity from 1969 to1979 than from 1991 to 2002. This variability likely is a reflection of the extreme light-ice season present in 1998(Atkinson et al., 2006), from which the region has since recovered. Cruise ships could use the Prince of Wales Strait to avoid the choke points on the western coast of Banks Island, but entry is difficult; indeed, Howell and Yackel (2004) showed virtually no change in ease of navigation from 1969 to 2002.

An alternative, longer route through the Northwest Passage passes through either Peel Sound or the Bellot Strait. The latter route potentially could avoid hazardous multi-year ice in Peel Sound, but its narrow passageway makes it unfeasible for use by larger vessels. Regardless of which route is selected, a choke point remains in the vicinity of the Victoria Strait (Fig. 5). This strait acts as a drain trap for multi-year ice that has entered the M’Clintock Channel region and gradually advances south-ward (Howell and Yackel, 2004; Howell et al., 2006). While Howell and Yackel (2004) showed slightly safer navigation conditions from 1991 to 2002 compared to 1969 to 1990, they attributed this improvement to the anomalous warm year of 1998 that removed most of the multi-year ice in the region. From 2000 to 2005, when conditions began to recover from the 1998 warming, atmospheric forcing was insufficient to break up the multi-year ice that entered the M’Clintock Channel. Instead the ice became mobile, flowing southward into the Victoria Strait as the surrounding first-year ice broke up earlier (Howell et al., 2006).

During the past 20 years, cruises gradually have become an important element of Canadian Arctic tourism, and currently there seems to be consensus about the cruise industry’s inevitable growth, especially in the vicinity of Baffin Bay. However, we have stressed the likelihood that sea-ice hazards will continue to exist and will present ongoing navigational challenges to tour operators, particularly those operating in the western regions of the Canadian Arctic.

Fast Forward to Summer of 2018:  Northwest Passage Proved Impassable

Reprinted from post on September 3, 2018:  News today from the Northwest Passage blog that S/V CRYSTAL has given up after hanging around Fort Ross hoping for a storm or melting to break the ice barrier blocking their way west.

As the vessel tracker shows, they have been forced to Plan C, which is returning to Greenland and accept that the NW Passage is closed this year. The latest ice chart gave them no hope for getting through.  Note yachts can sail through green (3/10), so the hope is for red to yellow to green.  But that did not happen last year.

The image below shows the ice with which they were coping.

More details at NW Passage blog 20180902 S/V CRYSTAL and S/V ATKA give up and retreat back to Greenland – Score ICE 3 vs YACHTS 0