The graph above shows July daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents during July decline 2.7M km2 down to 6.9M Km2 by day 213.  2024  tracked a little higher than the 18-year average early in July, then slipped into deficit in the last 10 days.  SII was close to MASIE early in July, then diverged mid month showing up to 666k km2 lower until ending July ~300k km2 less extent than MASIE.  2023 was higher than average, while 2007 ended ~ 540k km2 in deficit to average.  2020 ice ended nearly 1 Wadham or 1M km2 in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH June 2024: Oceans Lead Cool Down.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update.

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 213 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007. At this point in the year, Bering and Okhotsk seas are open water and thus dropped from the table.

The overall deficit to average is 248k km2, (4%).  The major deficits are in Laptev, Beaufort and CAA (Canadian Archipelago), while Kara is the only region with a large surplus.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

There is no charge for content on this site, nor for subscribers to receive email notifications of postings.

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on Day 197 for years 2007 to 2024. The regions vary in the amounts of ice cover Mid July, larger overall in recent years and with more Eurasian ice.

The graph below shows June daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents decline from a maximum of 10.8M km2 on day 167 down to 8.3M Km2 by day 197.  2024  tracked near the 18-year average in June, then was in surplus during July before ending slightly above average.  SII was somewhat higher than MASIE most of June and July until sliding into deficit mid July.  2007 was somewhat below average throughout, while 2020 ice started and ended much in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH June 2024: Oceans Lead Cool Down.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update.

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 197 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007. At this point in the year, Bering and Okhotsk seas are open water and thus dropped from the table.

The overall surplus to average is 80k km2, (1%).  The only major deficits are in Laptev, and secondly in Hudson Bay, going to open water soon anyway.  That is more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, especially in Chukchi, Kara and Baffin Bay.  Note that 2007 had 375k m2 less ice extent at July 15. 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

There is no charge for content on this site, nor for subscribers to receive email notifications of postings.

The graph above shows June daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents decline from a maximum of 11.6M km2 on day 153 down to 9.7M Km2 by day 182.  2024 started slightly higher, then tracked below the 18-year average, before ending above average.  SII was somewhat higher than MASIE most of June until ending nearly the same. 2007 melted faster than average, while 2020 ice started and ended much in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH May 2024: NH Cooling by Land and Sea.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update.

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 182 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007. At this point in the year, Bering and Okhotsk seas are open water and thus dropped from the table.

The overall surplus to average is 167k km2, (2%).  The only major deficit is in Hudson Bay, going to open water next month anyway.  That is more than offset by surpluses everywhere, especially in Chukchi, Kara and Baffin Bay.  Note that 2007 had almost half a Wadham of less ice extent at June 30. 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

There is no charge for content on this site, nor for subscribers to receive email notifications of postings.

The animation shows  Arctic ice melting season picking up first half of April 2024.  Typically, the Pacific side goes to water first, this year Okhotsk (top left) is ahead of schedule.  Also Baffin Bay (bottom right) is opening up early. Elsewhere Arctic drift ice remains, and Barents Sea ice (top center) is well above average for mid April.

The graph below shows mid-March to mid-April daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows on average Arctic ice extents decline from a maximum near 14.9M km2 on day 76 down to ~14.1M Km2 by day 105. Exceptionally 2024 started with 15.1M km2 and exceeded the 18-year average throughout.  SII was somewhat lower than MASIE in most of April until ending nearly the same. Both 2021 melted faster than average, while 2006 ice started and ended much in deficit.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH February 2024: SH Saves Global Warming.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 105 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

The overall surplus to average is 124k km2, (1%).  The only major deficits are in Baffin Bay and in Sea of Okhotsk, the latter going to open water quite early.  Those are more than offset by surpluses everywhere, especially in Barents and Greenland seas.  In fact, Barents is 120% of  its 2023 maximum.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

There is no charge for content on this site, nor for subscribers to receive email notifications of postings.

The animation shows end of March Arctic ice extents on day 91 over the last 19 years (length of MASIE dataset). Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the fluctuations are visible on the marginal basins both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left). Note the higher extents in 2012, followed by lesser ice, now overcome by 2024.

The graph below shows Monthly averages for March since 2007.  March is the maximum month in the annual cycle in contrast to September being the minimum Arctic ice extents. Note the low 2007 extents followed by several years over15M km2, then lesser extents 2015 to 2018, and increasing extents up to 2024 nearly averaging 15M for the month.

The graph below shows March daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during March on average Arctic ice extents nearly reach 15 Wadhams (15M km2) on Day 62, March 2.  A slow decline is normal until Day 91, March 31.  However, that period in 2024 saw Arctic ice go over 15M on day 68 and remain there until day 79. Afterward both MASIE and SII show above average extents to month end.  2006 was the first year in this dataset and ended March ~800k km2 in deficit to average.  2021 and 2023 were ~200k below average on Day 91 while 2024 ended 266k km2 surplus ice.   As usual in transitional months like March and September, SII (Sea Ice Index) shows a similar pattern with generally lower extents.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH February 2024: SH Saves Global Warming.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 91 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

The overall surplus to average is 266k km2, (2%).  The only major deficit is in Baffin Bay, more than offset by surpluses everywhere, especially in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland seas.  Note Arctic ice yesterday was more than a Wadham greater than the same day in 2006.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Arctic Ice Roaring Back in Max Month of March

The animation shows growing Arctic ice extents over the last two weeks. Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the additions are visible on both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left).

The graph below shows March daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during March on average Arctic ice extents nearly reach 15 Wadhams (15M km2) on Day 62, March 2.  A slow decline is normal until Day 75, March 15.  However, that period in 2024 saw Arctic ice increase 430k km2, nearly half a Wadham.  Note also that this year ice extents rose above 15M already in February, and now in March ice has been well above that threshold for the last week.  2006 was the first year in this dataset and on Day 75 was 704k km2 less than yesterday.  As usual in transitional months like March and September SII (Sea Ice Index) shows a similar pattern with generally lower extents.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH January 2024: Ocean Warm, Land Cooling.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 75 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.

The overall surplus to average is 230k km2, (2%).  The only major deficit is in Baffin Bay, more than offset by surpluses in Okhotsk and Greenland seas.  Everywhere else is maxed out.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The highest daily average in the last 18 years occurs on day 61 at 15.08M before descending. Most years are able to clear 15M, but in recent previous years, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 ice extents failed to clear the bar at 15M km2.  On February 11, 2024 (day 42) Arctic ice extent already leaped over that bar 20 days early. Then extent dropped for several days, but has again topped 15 Wadhams with ice in Asian basins contributing greatly.

The animation shows Pacific ice growth in the last week.  Bering Sea on the right changed little, while Okhotsk in the center added ice down to N. Japan, and now well above 2023 March maximum.  The ice patch in far left is the harbor close to Beijing where the Yellow Sea added 20K km2 ice extent in two days.

The graph shows the rapid rise in Arctic ice reaching 15 M km2 extent already on Feb. 11 (day 42)  Then the extent dropped down to 14.6M before rising again to reach a new high of 15.07M. Yesterday Arctic ice was 215k km2 above average, with nearly all the surplus appearing in Okhotsk.  SII showed neither the first peak or the current one in February.

The table shows the distribution of ice compared to day 56 averages and other years on that day.

Note that moderate deficits in Bering Sea and Baffin Bay are more than offset by a large 254k km2 surplus in Okhotsk along with 130k km2 in Greenland Sea.

These results fly in the face of those claiming for years that Arctic ice is in a “death spiral.”  More sober and clear-eyed observers have called out the alarmists for their exaggerations.  A recent example comes from Allan Alsup Jensen at Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability, Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology, Denmark.  His December 2023 paper is Time Trend of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Since 2007 no significant decline has been observed

Abstract

The NSIDC website, IPCC’s reports and some scientific papers have announced that the Arctic Sea ice extent, when it is lowest in September month, in recent years has declined dramatically, and in few decades the sea ice is supposed to disappear completely in the summer. In that way new and shorter ships routes will open up north of the continents.

The facts are, that the Arctic Sea ice extent measured by satellites since 1978 expresses annual variations and it has declined considerably from 1997 to 2007. However, before that time period, from 1978 to 1996, the downward trend was minimal, and in the last 17 years from 2007 to 2023 the downward trend has also been about zero. Therefore, there is no indication that we should expect the Arctic Sea summer ice to disappear completely, as predicted, in one or two decades.

Regarding the extent of the summer (February) sea ice at the Antarctic, the downward trend during the years 1979-2021 was very small but in 2022 and 2023 a considerable decline was observed, and a decline was also clearly observed for the whole period of 2007- 2023. That was in contradiction to what happened in the Arctic. The pattern of the annual levels was not the same for the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating different drivers in the North and the South.

Figure 4: The minimum extent of the sea ice at Antarctic
in February month 1979-2023 (data from NSIDC.org)

These data show that there is no apparent correlation between the variable extent of the Arctic and the Antarctic Sea ice and the gradually increasing CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere as proposed by NSIDC, IPCC and others, also for these areas of cold climate.

Postscript Feb. 14

Some seek to deny the current plateau in Arctic Sea Ice by saying that extent measure is only surface, while volume would be a truer metric.  That is true in theory, but in practice obtaining accurate and consistent data on sea ice thickness is a challenge yet to be reached.  As you can imagine, detecting a depth dimension from satellites is fraught with errors, especially with drift ice not land anchored, moving around, sometimes piling up from winds.  The scientific effort to measure volume has a short history and several uncertainties to ovecome before it can be trusted.

Unfortunately for those wanting an ice free Arctic (well, no more than 1 Wadham they say), the volume record so far shows the same plateau:

“Satellite derived sea ice thickness (CryoSat 2, AWI algorithm v2.6) shows an anomaly thickness pattern very similar to that from PIOMAS, but CS2 shows negative anomalies propagating north of the Canadian Archipelago into the central Arctic while PIOMAS has neutral conditions there. A positive thickness anomaly around Wrangle Island is spatially more extensive in CS2. January 2024 adds another month to the record of CS2 data which now spans 13 years. Neither CS2 nor PIOMAS show any discernible trend over that time period underlining the importance of internal variability at decadal timescales.”  Source: Polar Science Center