Arctic Ice Exceeds at Minimum

It is the most typical day this decade for the annual Arctic ice extent minimum. Some take any year’s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image below shows extents from 2007, mostly smaller than 2017.

While the daily average extent for the last 10 years bottomed out on day 260, years like 2016 and 2009 hit minimum on day 254.  This year’s extent was at 4.7M km2 for a week, hit bottom at 4.6M on day 253, then rose up and over 4.8M km2.  SII (Sea Ice Index) 2017 is similar to MASIE, though a bit lower lately. The graph below shows September comparisons through day 260.
Note that as of day 260, 2017 has gone 300k km2 above average, 500k km2 more than 2016, 700k km2 higher than 2007, and 1400k km2 greater than 2012.  All regions have added ice, with Central Arctic the only exception.  That is likely due to Central Arctic sea already full of ice at 3.1M km2.

The table shows ice extents in the regions for 2017, 10 year averages and 2007 for day 260.

Region 2017260 Day 260
Average
2017-Ave. 2007260 2017-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 4757445 4449204 308241 4045776 711669
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 411648 468835 -57187 481384 -69736
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 106342 145834 -39492 22527 83815
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 320193 257482 62711 311 319882
 (4) Laptev_Sea 241780 123163 118617 235869 5912
 (5) Kara_Sea 21251 20846 405 44067 -22816
 (6) Barents_Sea 1664 24778 -23114 7420 -5756
 (7) Greenland_Sea 90072 213695 -123622 333181 -243109
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 65653 26566 39086 26703 38950
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 430824 247034 183790 225526 205299
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1932 6975 -5042 2270 -338
 (11) Central_Arctic 3071252 2912912 158339 2665244 406008

The largest deficits to average are in BCE and Greenland Sea, more than offset by huge surpluses in Central Arctice, CAA and Laptev.  Note the strong growth in East Siberian offsetting the Beaufort deficit.

Over this decade, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, but looks like fluctuations around a plateau since 2007. By mid-September, all the peripheral seas have turned to water, and the residual ice shows up in a few places. The table below indicates where  ice is found in September. (Shows day 260 amounts with 10 year averages)

Arctic Regions 2007 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average
Central Arctic Sea 2.67 3.16 2.64 2.98 2.93 2.92 3.07 2.91
BCE 0.50 1.08 0.31 1.38 0.89 0.52 0.84 0.87
LKB 0.29 0.24 0.02 0.19 0.05 0.28 0.26 0.17
Greenland & CAA 0.56 0.41 0.41 0.55 0.46 0.45 0.52 0.46
B&H Bays 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.03
NH Total 4.05 4.91 3.40 5.13 4.44 4.20 4.76 4.45

BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) on the Asian side are quite variable as the largest source of ice other than the Central Arctic itself.   Greenland Sea and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) together hold almost 0.5M km2 of ice at minimum, fairly consistently.   LKB are the European seas of Laptev, Kara and Barents, a smaller source of ice, but a difference maker some years, as Laptev was in 2016 and 2017.  Baffin and Hudson Bays are almost inconsequential.  The biggest contributors to 2017 success are Central Arctic, Canadian Archipelago and Laptev.

For context, note that the average maximum has been 15M, so on average the extent shrinks to 30% of the March high before growing back the following winter.

Update Sept. 20

Dave Burton asked a great question in his comment below, and triggered this response:

Dave, thanks for asking a great question. All queries are good, but a great one forces me to dig and learn something new, in this case a more detailed knowledge of what goes into MASIE reports. My answer above refers only to a sub-product which combines MASIE with JAXA.

You asked, where do they get their data? The answer is primarily from NIC’s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). From the documentation, the multiple sources feeding IMS are:

Platform(s) AQUA, DMSP, DMSP 5D-3/F17, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13, GOES-9, METEOSAT, MSG, MTSAT-1R, MTSAT-2, NOAA-14, NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, NOAA-18, NOAA-N, RADARSAT-2, SUOMI-NPP, TERRA

Sensor(s): AMSU-A, ATMS, AVHRR, GOES I-M IMAGER, MODIS, MTSAT 1R Imager, MTSAT 2 Imager, MVIRI, SAR, SEVIRI, SSM/I, SSMIS, VIIRS

Summary: IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) has an extensive history of monitoring snow and ice coverage.Accurate monitoring of global snow/ice cover is a key component in the study of climate and global change as well as daily weather forecasting.

The Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs (POES/GOES) operated by NESDIS provide invaluable visible and infrared spectral data in support of these efforts. Clear-sky imagery from both the POES and the GOES sensors show snow/ice boundaries very well; however, the visible and infrared techniques may suffer from persistent cloud cover near the snowline, making observations difficult (Ramsay, 1995). The microwave products (DMSP and AMSR-E) are unobstructed by clouds and thus can be used as another observational platform in most regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery also provides all-weather, near daily capacities to discriminate sea and lake ice. With several other derived snow/ice products of varying accuracy, such as those from NCEP and the NWS NOHRSC, it is highly desirable for analysts to be able to interactively compare and contrast the products so that a more accurate composite map can be produced.

The Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS first began generating Northern Hemisphere Weekly Snow and Ice Cover analysis charts derived from the visible satellite imagery in November, 1966. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the analysis (190 km and 7 days, respectively) remained unchanged for the product’s 33-year lifespan.

As a result of increasing customer needs and expectations, it was decided that an efficient, interactive workstation application should be constructed which would enable SAB to produce snow/ice analyses at a higher resolution and on a daily basis (~25 km / 1024 x 1024 grid and once per day) using a consolidated array of new as well as existing satellite and surface imagery products. The Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover chart has been produced since February, 1997 by SAB meteorologists on the IMS.

Another large resolution improvement began in early 2004, when improved technology allowed the SAB to begin creation of a daily ~4 km (6144×6144) grid. At this time, both the ~4 km and ~24 km products are available from NSIDC with a slight delay. Near real-time gridded data is available in ASCII format by request.

In March 2008, the product was migrated from SAB to the National Ice Center (NIC) of NESDIS. The production system and methodology was preserved during the migration. Improved access to DMSP, SAR, and modeled data sources is expected as a short-term from the migration, with longer term plans of twice daily production, GRIB2 output format, a Southern Hemisphere analysis, and an expanded suite of integrated snow and ice variable on horizon.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ims_1.html

Footnote

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year’s charts can not be compared with another year? Researchers do this, including Walt Meier in charge of Sea Ice Index. That said, I understand his interest in directing people to use his product rather than one he does not control. As I have said before:

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset

 

4 comments

  1. angech · September 18, 2017

    Turn seems to have occurred. If the region between the East Siberian and Laptev seas freezes quickly splitting the Artic in half we may be in for a grand refreezing year. Much easier to freeze two smaller areas than one large one. In recent years there has always been a large, slow to refreeze area here.

    Like

  2. daveburton · September 20, 2017

    How much is MASIE affected by the failures of the F19 & F17 satellites in February & April, 2016, respectively? Where does their data come from, now?

    Like

  3. Ron Clutz · September 20, 2017

    Dave , AFAIK NIC gets satellite data from JAXA, so not an issue. Details at
    https://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g10005-masam2/#acquisition_proc

    Like

  4. Ron Clutz · September 20, 2017

    Dave, thanks for asking a great question. All queries are good, but a great one forces me to dig and learn something new, in this case a more detailed knowledge of what goes into MASIE reports. My answer above refers only to a sub-product which combines MASIE with JAXA.

    You asked, where do they get their data? The answer is primarily from NIC’s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). From the documentation, the multiple sources feeding IMS are:

    Platform(s) AQUA, DMSP, DMSP 5D-3/F17, GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-13, GOES-9, METEOSAT, MSG, MTSAT-1R, MTSAT-2, NOAA-14, NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-17, NOAA-18, NOAA-N, RADARSAT-2, SUOMI-NPP, TERRA

    Sensor(s): AMSU-A, ATMS, AVHRR, GOES I-M IMAGER, MODIS, MTSAT 1R Imager, MTSAT 2 Imager, MVIRI, SAR, SEVIRI, SSM/I, SSMIS, VIIRS

    Summary: IMS Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Analysis

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) has an extensive history of monitoring snow and ice coverage.Accurate monitoring of global snow/ice cover is a key component in the study of climate and global change as well as daily weather forecasting.

    The Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs (POES/GOES) operated by NESDIS provide invaluable visible and infrared spectral data in support of these efforts. Clear-sky imagery from both the POES and the GOES sensors show snow/ice boundaries very well; however, the visible and infrared techniques may suffer from persistent cloud cover near the snowline, making observations difficult (Ramsay, 1995). The microwave products (DMSP and AMSR-E) are unobstructed by clouds and thus can be used as another observational platform in most regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery also provides all-weather, near daily capacities to discriminate sea and lake ice. With several other derived snow/ice products of varying accuracy, such as those from NCEP and the NWS NOHRSC, it is highly desirable for analysts to be able to interactively compare and contrast the products so that a more accurate composite map can be produced.

    The Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS first began generating Northern Hemisphere Weekly Snow and Ice Cover analysis charts derived from the visible satellite imagery in November, 1966. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the analysis (190 km and 7 days, respectively) remained unchanged for the product’s 33-year lifespan.

    As a result of increasing customer needs and expectations, it was decided that an efficient, interactive workstation application should be constructed which would enable SAB to produce snow/ice analyses at a higher resolution and on a daily basis (~25 km / 1024 x 1024 grid and once per day) using a consolidated array of new as well as existing satellite and surface imagery products. The Daily Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice Cover chart has been produced since February, 1997 by SAB meteorologists on the IMS.

    Another large resolution improvement began in early 2004, when improved technology allowed the SAB to begin creation of a daily ~4 km (6144×6144) grid. At this time, both the ~4 km and ~24 km products are available from NSIDC with a slight delay. Near real-time gridded data is available in ASCII format by request.

    In March 2008, the product was migrated from SAB to the National Ice Center (NIC) of NESDIS. The production system and methodology was preserved during the migration. Improved access to DMSP, SAR, and modeled data sources is expected as a short-term from the migration, with longer term plans of twice daily production, GRIB2 output format, a Southern Hemisphere analysis, and an expanded suite of integrated snow and ice variable on horizon.

    http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ims_1.html

    Like

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