Covid Statistical Shenangians

Babylon Bee sees the humor in this craziness: Latest Computer Model Predicts Between 0 And 12.6 Billion New COVID-19 Deaths By Summer.  Excerpts in italics  with my bolds.

U.S.—After several embarrassing and widely divergent revisions to the coronavirus projections of infection, hospitalization, and death rate used by government officials around the world to justify shutting down the global economy, experts at John Hopkins have now deployed a state-of-the-art super-scientific computer model and have now determined that between 0 and 12.6 billion people will contract the disease and be completely dead by summer.

“The panel of experts came together to give Americans the true picture of what we are looking at,” said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as he pointed to lots of completely accurate up-to-date charts and graphs from the study. “This is not just the flu. This is going to wipe out between 0 and 12.6 billion people before summer hits.”

As a result of the new predictions, the CDC has revised their guidelines for essential workers to not only continue to wear a face covering and regularly take their temperature, but to also begin praying to whatever higher power they choose as they await the impending death of everyone on June 1.

The CDC website was updated with an infographic informing Americans they had a final 34 days to “slow the spread.”

“We told everyone that there would be no ventilators and that hospitals were going to be overwhelmed across the entire nation by April, even with extensive social distancing recommendations and shutdowns in place,” stated Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and member of the White House’s coronavirus task force. “It didn’t happen quite that way, so we went to get better numbers. Now it looks like in this new expert modeling that everyone will actually die by June 1. We are super serious.”

“It is absolutely vital that no one shake hands ever again. Though after June 1 it won’t matter as much,” he added.

William Briggs does the forensic analysis of distorted statistical analysis and exaggerations at his blog Coronavirus Update XI — Robbing The Cemeteries To Pad Death Totals 

Read all about it!

  • As I predicted, they’re mining history to dig up old deaths. Now the forecasts won’t look as bad.
  • The man in charge of Pennsylvania’s health system got caught juicing coronavirus death numbers. How embarrassing.
  • America’s reported case ratio is 32% of world total. America’s reported death ratio is 24% of world total. In best medical system. Either we’re dying off fast, or our numbers are being juiced.
  • We have shown for weeks true infection rate must be higher; here’s why.
  • Estimated true cases about 20 to 40 million, worldwide.
  • Estimated true cases about 5 to 10 million, US.
  • Testing therefore can and will be used to drag this all out, by making it appear virus is spreading.
  • An interesting H1N1 comparison.
  • All-dead stats in comparison with other years is not in here. But it’s coming.

Month or so back I predicted coronavirus models would be treated like global warming models. In them, the modelers are always “discovering” new lower temperatures in the past (to make our times hotter). In the same way, and in order not to admit model failure, they’d have to make up the corona body deficit. Models said around median 175 thousand dead in the US even with full lockdowns.

When it became clear we weren’t coming anywhere near the original huge numbers, Fauci first modified the forecast. Like a proctologist discovering his missing pen, he pulled “60,000” out of his…stethoscope. Nobody questioned him on how he arrived at that figure.

Even that number began to look doubtful, though, as we saw. That’s when they switched from “dying from” to “dying with”. When that wasn’t enough, we heard of “dying with suspicion”. Remember that NYC “discovered” a few thousand deaths they called coronavirus, but which were never measured? Or did we already forget?

Even NYC’s “discovery” wasn’t enough. I predicted that since you can’t make up dead bodies, like you can with Chicago voters, for total all-death counts, they’d have to reclassify some older deaths as COVID. . . They’re doing it!

3 comments

  1. Bob Webster · April 28, 2020

    Ron,

    Excellent article on the folly of using unproven, unvalidated “models” to guide critical pandemic response policy.

    It’s even worse than just poor model performance.

    I wrote this piece back in mid April after detecting a peculiar change in past data: WHO is MANIPULATING the RECORDS of WORLDWIDE DAILY NEW WUHAN CORONAVIRUS CASES? – And why? An implausible alteration of 11 days of records in April demands a serious explanation (April 18, 2020) I emailed Prof. Lauren Gardner (who is in charge of the worldwide COVID-19 online “Dashboard” that contained these figures) and asked for an explanation since there was nothing online that I could find to explain this.

    Much like the scientists responsible for “homogenization” of the temperature record refused to explain to Congress what they were doing and why for many years, this manipulation of the trends goes without explanation. I’ve never heard back from Prof. Gardner.

    One would think Democrats would be anxious to avoid a pandemic that hits urban Democrat voter plantations worse than any other area… until you realize that Democrat dead voters are a significant voting bloc for Democrat candidates.

    Best,

    Bob Webster 2881 St. Barts Square Vero Beach, FL 32967 (772) 299-4422

    >

    Like

    • Ron Clutz · April 28, 2020

      Thanks Bob. There is an additional factor at work;

      Like

  2. Genghis · April 29, 2020

    Ron,
    AOC will be thrild as she doesn’t have to wait 10 years for the world to end.

    Like

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