COVID-19 Status in US: Statistics vs. Hype

The complete report by statisticians Kevin Dayaratna and Norbert Michel is A Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Breakthrough Infections and Deaths.  

Summary of Principal findings:

According to estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Delta variant represented more than 80 percent of new U.S. COVID-19 cases at the end of July 2021. This fact has almost surely added to Americans’ concerns about the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines since coverage of breakthrough cases has permeated the news. The CDC has also sent mixed messages, creating confusion and unnecessary fear. The overall evidence remains clear: Vaccines provide people with significant protection against serious illness or death from the coronavirus, including the Delta variant. Public health guidelines should reflect this reality.

  • The CDC announced new COVID-19 guidelines for the vaccinated based on data that allegedly imply that vaccines offer little protection against the Delta variant.
  • The new data simply do not support such evidence, and the CDC’s latest move to re-impose mask mandates runs the risk of increasing vaccine hesitancy.
  • Health guidelines must reflect the reality that vaccines provide significant protection against serious illness or death from the virus, including the Delta variant.
COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Vaccines

Chart 1 presents new daily cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic.

As Chart 1 demonstrates, COVID-19 cases and deaths declined significantly for much of the first half of 2021 as more Americans were vaccinated. While the U.S. is experiencing a surge in cases due to the Delta variant, most of these cases are among the unvaccinated, and COVID-19 deaths are nowhere near the levels before vaccines were authorized.

Furthermore, as of August 4, 2021, more than 164 million Americans were fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with 191 million people having acquired partial immunity through at least one dose. More than 80 percent of Americans 65 and older are fully vaccinated

Yet, among those fully vaccinated, the CDC reports 7,525 COVID-19 patients who either were hospitalized or died, a figure representing 0.005 percent of the fully vaccinated.  This CDC statistic reflects data as of August 2, 2021. 

According to the CDC, 74 percent of these cases were people ages 65 and older, 26 percent of these hospitalizations were reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19, and 21 percent (316) of the 1,507 fatal cases were reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.

The CDC “Study” of Barnstable County, Massachusetts

According to The New York Times, the State of Massachusetts and Barnstable County have adult vaccination rates of 74.8 percent and 76 percent, respectively.  These statistics assume full vaccination.  The town of Provincetown itself (where many of the celebratory events took place) has a vaccination rate of 95 percent.  Although it is unclear what the actual vaccination rate was among the attendees, Dr. Ingu Yun, who attended the festivities and engaged in a similar analysis associated only with fully vaccinated people, suggests that the vaccination rate of attendees was well above 90 percent.

That is, assuming a 90 percent vaccination rate, only 1.21 percent of the estimated 54,000 vaccinated attendees, and 4.67 percent of the estimated 6,000 unvaccinated, tested positive for COVID-19. Of course, the festivities had many out-of-town visitors, making it difficult to ascertain the true vaccination rate among attendees.

What Are Your Odds Now

Of course, there will continue to be breakthrough cases, but the CDC’s own data indicate that the truth is the vaccines have had over 90% efficacy against hospitalization and death.

Not surprisingly, however, among the unvaccinated, COVID-19 can still be quite deadly, especially for the elderly and those with chronic conditions. The following chart puts those odds in perspective with other causes of death.

As the chart illustrates, however, the odds of dying of COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated, although not zero, are slim to none. In fact, those under 65 have significantly higher odds of getting struck by lightning.



  1. Bob Webster · August 30, 2021

    Problem with these numbers is that they are polluted with PCR test “cases” that are inappropriate because PCR cannot distinguish between a live virus and a viral remnant. Had Dr. Mullis, PCR’s creator, not died in August 2019, the CDC & WHO would NEVER have gotten away with using PCR to define a “case” of COVID-19.

    Also, the numbers reflect the unusual all-encompassing COVID-19 death guidelines that deliberately encompass vastly more deaths than were actually caused by COVID-19.

    Then, of course, one has to wonder why a case of a vaccinated person is considered a “breakthrough case” and not a “vaccine failure”… and is that “case” determined by PCR or a genuine test for the virus?

    Analyzing the change in US deaths (all causes) over the years 2017-2020, there were 39,140 more deaths during 2020 than the average of the prior two year (increases). That number, ironically, is very near the estimated death toll had the standard influenza death guidelines (reasonable) been used rather than the (unreasonabl) COVID-19 death guidelines (created to grossly exaggerate deaths).

    Sadly, any analysis of “cases” and “deaths” is meaningless because the data are unreliable and tainted.

    People bellyache because Florida no longer reports the tainted data on a daily basis… in fact, it’s hard to find on a weekly basis. Yet one could argue that reporting any of the misleading data is a mistake.

    If real COVID-19 deaths (those actually caused by COVID-19) were counted, the number of adverse vaccine reaction deaths would be far more significant in comparison.

    The performance of the CDC and FDA throughout this pandemic is dismal at best and criminal at worst. It seems their entire objective was to create panic and division. At that, they succeeded.


    • Ron Clutz · August 30, 2021

      When vaccinated people get infected but not hospitalized, their immune systems get the credit, whether aided by vaccine or by previous infection with mild or no symptoms. Why does anyone think a vaccine prevents infection? The whole notion of “breakthrough” is a trick on the public by the zero cases snowflakes. And as you say, getting infected doesn’t make you a “case” unless you get ill. More disinformation.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. jchr12 · August 30, 2021

    Statistically, in La La Land, world figures indicate 4.9m deaths over 2 seasons with 7.9bn people. Quick ‘n’ dirty analysis suggests 0.05% raw mortality over 2 periods = c0.02% identical to flu, which has ‘disappeared’. That assumes, rightly mentioned by Bob, that all deaths recorded as Covid within 28 days of a faulty + PCR test with a 93% inaccuracy, were in fact ‘of’ Covid rather than simply ‘with’ some sort of viral infection that may not even have been Covid, or indeed an existing infection.

    Meanwhile, in the faintly sane world, all cause mortality remains somewhat below average, and no account of those dying from the vaccines.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Ron Clutz · August 30, 2021

      Yes indeed. All th numbers are juiced. Still “covid deaths” inflated as they are small compared to normal mortality.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. tom0mason · August 31, 2021

    Maybe not quite on topic but …
    Mary Holland at the UN states some salient points about ‘mandatory’ vaccination …


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