The title of this post is over the top, but was provoked by the repeated claims last summer earth was going to hell right now.  For example,

The world’s summer of hell.  Hot, hot, hot: Summer of extremes setting heat records around the world, July 2018, CBC

Summer 2018: On the highway to hell? August 2018, Beyond Ratings

Earth at risk of becoming ‘hothouse’ if tipping point reached, if we can’t stop it we’re in a hell of a mess..August 2018, CNN

The Summer of Hell.  Climate change is here and we are living in its embers.  August 2018 The Week (US)

Meanwhile, back in reality, Arctic ice is spreading everywhere.  The image below shows the European side in the last two weeks:

Laptev and East Siberian in the middle are frozen solid. On the right Kara has added 400k km2 ice extent up to 700k km2, 75% of March maximum.  Below is the freezing proceeding on the Canadian side.

Baffin Bay in the center next to Greenland is extending south and added 300k km2.  Hudson Bay on the left added 400k km2, with the western coastline freezing all the way down into James Bay.  The graph below shows 2018 is matching the 11-year average after being down in October.

Both MASIE and SII have 9.9M km2 ice extents matching the average for day 320, Nov. 16.  2007, 2012 and 2017 all recovered from their September lows, while 2016 was much slower to refreeze.

Region	2018320	Day 320  Average	2018-Ave.	2007320	2018-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	9937017	9942096	-5078	9824193	112824
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1069588	1064590	4999	1059182	10406
(2) Chukchi_Sea	615028	667249	-52222	519486	95541
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1085198	1077597	7601	1055581	29617
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897648	197	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	701192	655668	45524	774297	-73105
(6) Barents_Sea	65798	167138	-101340	149482	-83684
(7) Greenland_Sea	378273	482289	-104016	533946	-155672
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	711715	555346	156369	545899	165816
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853337	851902	1435	852539	798
(10) Hudson_Bay	426092	261863	164228	244531	181560
(11) Central_Arctic	3107467	3186378	-78911	3163043	-55576

Deficits in Chukchi, Greenland and Barents Seas are offset by surpluses in Kara Sea, Baffin and Hudson Bays.

Meanwhile, in Nunavut, it is a great time to be a polar bear, even more of them than people want.

When Hell Freezes Over (Eagles Reunion Tour)

 

Russian Coastline Freezes in last Ten days

With the Canadian Arctic already frozen over, the action has moved to the Russian side.  The image above shows East Siberian and Laptev basins filling in completely.  Meanwhile on the right Kara Sea has gone from open water to nearly half of last March maximum.  Kara went from 114k km2 on day 298 to 435k km2 yesterday, 47% of March max.

The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents totaling 9.0M km2 yesterday,  matching the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  Notice that 2018 lagged the average by 900k km2 on day 296 and overcame that gap in 13 days.  Presently, 2018 is tracking  300k km2 above 2007, 600k km2 more than 2012, and  1.3M km2 more than 2016. NOAA’s Sea Ice Index continutes to match MASIE through this period.

 

The current IMS Snow and Ice Chart shows how snow is covering Siberia completely, and has spread over northern and eastern canada.  Snow cover is an important indicator for the coming Arctic and NH winter, as explained by Dr. Judah Cohen in his latest AER arctic oscillation update (here).  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

What unfolds next with the stratospheric PV (Polar Vortex) and troposphere-stratosphere coupling could be critical for determining the average temperature for the winter (December-January-February). Currently the GFS is predicting that the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere will become relatively quiet after this week. This will allow the stratospheric PV to recover and strengthen the second half of November. If the stratospheric PV becomes relatively strong and circular in shape in early December and couples to the mid and lower troposphere, this will likely result in a mild to extremely mild pattern across much of the NH including the Eastern US and northern Eurasia. At least for the Eastern US, it will be very difficult to recover from a mild start to winter and the winter temperatures would likely average mild regardless of what transpired the remainder of winter. Across northern Eurasia including Europe I think the outcome is a little more in doubt, as we saw last winter, Northern Eurasia and Europe can still average below normal for winter even with a mild start.

However an alternate path is that the energy pulse predicted for this week is not unique but is followed by subsequent pulses that further perturb the stratospheric PV. I see no evidence of this from the latest GFS forecasts, however in my opinion the NH tropospheric circulation remains favorable for subsequent PV disruptions. I think the place to watch is Siberia. As long as Siberia remains cold further energy pulses are likely with disruption to the stratospheric PV. However if Siberia turns mild for an extended period then we should expect a relatively strong PV for at least several weeks.

I would also like to note several trends. Snow cover extent remains above normal across North America. I do believe that snow cover can foreshadow the weather and the early season cold air outbreak across Eastern North America was at least preconditioned by the extensive snow cover for the entire fall this year. As long as the snow cover remains extensive and resilient, eastern North America remains at risk for subsequent cold air or Arctic outbreaks. However in the near term snow cover advance has been most impressive across Asia and with the more extensive snow cover, cold air is building across Siberia and is predicted to become more widespread. And just as I discussed above how long the snow and cold persist across Asia could be critical for the character of the winter not just locally but even remotely including the Eastern US.

 

 

 

 

Big Chill in last Two Weeks

The major growth in ice extent came in the Russian basins (right side).  The image above shows massive gains in ice extent in East Siberian and Laptev seas. East Siberian added 460k km2 for a total of 895, or 82% of last March maximum.  Laptev was mostly open water in September, but added 600k km2 in the last two weeks for a total of 700k km2 or 78% of last March maximum. With the Canadian Arctic on the left already frozen over, the gains were smaller, limited to northern Hudson Bay (top left) and Baffin Bay filling in from the north.

The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents totaling 8.2M km2 yesterday,  400k km2 below the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  Note how 2018 started October on average, then went fairly flat the first week or so, falling 900k km2 below average.  Recent gains in ice extent exceed average gains, closing the gap.  Presently, 2018 is three days behind the average, matching 2007 and tracking above 2016 and 2012. NOAA’s Sea Ice Index matched MASIE throughout October.

The current IMS Snow and Ice Chart shows how snow is covering Siberia completely, and has spread over northern and eastern canada.

The table below shows the regional distribution of Arctic ice extents.

Region	2018304	Day 304  Average	2018-Ave.	2007304	2018-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8167466	8561136	-393671	8175072	-7606
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1069285	948751	120534	1038126	31159
(2) Chukchi_Sea	412073	468794	-56721	242685	169389
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	894863	954841	-59978	835071	59792
(4) Laptev_Sea	698238	896167	-197929	887789	-189551
(5) Kara_Sea	299264	462673	-163409	311960	-12695
(6) Barents_Sea	4058	81432	-77375	52823	-48765
(7) Greenland_Sea	341543	416633	-75090	443559	-102016
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	427557	271561	155996	289374	138184
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	823551	789952	33599	817220	6331
(10) Hudson_Bay	131284	85823	45461	48845	82439
(11) Central_Arctic	3063891	3173126	-109235	3206345	-142454

The deficits are mainly on the Russian and European seas, only partly offset by surpluses in Beaufort, CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bays.

 

 

 

Siberian Big Chill in last Ten days

With the Canadian Arctic already frozen over, the action has moved to the Russian side.  The image above shows massive gains in ice extent in East Siberian and Laptev basins. East Siberian added 383k km2 for a total of 821, or 75% of last March maximum.  Laptev was mostly open water in September, but added 550k km2 in the last ten days for a total of 650k km2 or 72% of last March maximum.

The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents totaling 7.8M km2 yesterday,  400k km2 below the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  Note how 2018 started on average, then went fairly flat the first week or so, falling 900k km2 below average.  Recent gains in ice extent exceed average gains, closing the gap.  Presently, 2018 is about four days behind the average, tracking above 2016, 2012 and 2007. NOAA’s Sea Ice Index is matching MASIE through most of October.

The current IMS Snow and Ice Chart shows how snow is covering Siberia completely, and has spread over northern and eastern canada.

 

 

 

October Days in Nunavut

Previous posts described how the Northwest Passage was treacherously laden with ice this year.  The image above shows how the freezing proceeded in this region over the last 16 days.  Oct. 1 the CAA ice extent (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) was 609k km2, then waffled back and forth until growing sharply the last four days to 786k km2.  On the right, Baffin Bay also doubled in that period up to 150k km2.  On the left and bottom, Beaufort Sea added 324k km2 up to 943k km2, nearly 90% of the maximum last March.

The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents totaling 5.96M km2 yesterday,  700k km2 below the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  Note how 2018 started on average, then went fairly flat the first week or so, and lately is adding extent at the same rate as the average.  Presently, 2018 is about five days behind the average, tracking closely the 2016 ice growth.  NOAA’s Sea Ice Index is matching MASIE,  while 2007 and 2012 are not far behind.

The current IMS Snow and Ice Chart shows how snow cover is spreading rapidly across both Canada and Siberia.  Dr. Judah Cohen comments on this aspect at his AER blog Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

I present what is I believe is the latest European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter forecast in Figure i taken from climate.copernicus.eu. The ECMWF model is generally considered the best forecast model on the planet. The first thing that jumps out at me is the predicted classic or text book positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern with a deep Aleutian Low, ridging or elevated heights across northwestern North America including Alaska and troughing or low heights in the Southeastern US. The ECMWF model is also predicting a quasi-negative NAO with the southern pole or center of action more classically represented than the northern pole. But in regards to the US winter this represents a suppressed storm track along the Eastern Seaboard. A positive PNA should yield an overall cold winter to the Eastern US. The ECMWF model is most confident in a relatively cold winter in the Southeastern US with greater uncertainty in the Northeastern US while the suppressed storm track will bring elevated risks of East Coast snowstorms. And El Niño does tend to focus the greatest snow threat, at least relative to normal, in the Mid-Atlantic. If you are a winter weather enthusiast especially a snow lover living in the Mid-Atlantic this ECMWF winter forecast should have you very excited.

The other feature that jumps out at me is high latitude blocking. I already mentioned the blocking near Alaska but there is a second center near Scandinavia that extends eastward into the Barents-Kara Seas. If the ECMWF was predicting a textbook negative NAO this block would be closer to Greenland. I believe that if the ECMWF forecast is correct and the block sets up near Scandinavia this is not as cold for Europe as the classic negative NAO but would instead focus the cold more in Asia. However I do think some of that cold would likely be drawn eastward underneath the blocking high and could result in a cold, possibly snowy winter for Central and/or Southeastern Europe. The other thing to watch is that a blocking high near Scandinavia and the Barents-Kara Seas coupled with a deep Aleutian Low is ideal for transferring energy from the troposphere into the stratosphere forcing a PV disruption. Now I don’t believe the ECMWF forecast is a consequence of a polar vortex disruption but is strongly suggestive of one. And if one does occur, then I would expect an increased probability of a more classic negative NAO to follow.

 

 

 

With ten years of hyped claims about Arctic sea ice declining, it takes effort to remember that ice in the Northern Hemisphere isn’t going away.  This year’s monthly average for September (the annual minimum) is slightly lower than 2017, but still well above 2007.  MASIE shows a surplus of 300k km2 and SII shows 450k km2.  As a result, both linear trends are slightly positive, though I would call it a “plateau, ” as opposed to a “death spiral.”

Twelve Days in Nunavut

Previous posts described how the Northwest Passage was treacherously laden with ice this year.  The image above shows the flash freezing in this region over the last twelve days.  Sept. 18 the CAA ice extent (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) was 321k km2, close to its annual minimum.  Yesterday MASIE showed 606k km2,  a increase of 90% in that region.

The graph shows MASIE reporting Arctic ice extents totalling 4.93M km2 yesterday,  35k km2 below the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  NOAA’s Sea Ice Index is the same as MASIE, 2007 was 845k km2 lower, and 2012 1.1M km2 less ice extent.  A dip on day 252 to  4.43M km2 was an early daily minimum for the year.  As shown in the first graph, the September monthly average exceeded 2007 by 300k in MASIE and  400k km2 in SII.

The table below shows ice extents in the regions comprising the Arctic in September.

Region	2018273	Day 273  Average	2018-Ave.	2007273	2018-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4931836	4966893	-35057	4086883	844953
(1) Beaufort_Sea	622520	527098	95422	498743	123777
(2) Chukchi_Sea	134120	210769	-76649	51	134069
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	378263	329380	48884	311	377952
(4) Laptev_Sea	19790	186004	-166214	235245	-215455
(5) Kara_Sea	235	30387	-30152	15367	-15132
(6) Barents_Sea	0	18890	-18890	4851	-4851
(7) Greenland_Sea	242190	235559	6631	353210	-111020
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	70138	51991	18148	42247	27891
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	606394	367879	238515	307135	299259
(10) Hudson_Bay	4611	4458	153	1936	2674
(11) Central_Arctic	2852432	3003376	-150944	2626511	225921

The total extent is down 35k km2 (less than 1%) below the 11 year average.  The deficit in Chuckchi is more than offset by surpluses in Beaufort and East Siberian.  On the European side are deficits in Laptev, Kara and Central Arctic, almost covered by the huge surplus in Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).

It’s all good.  It’s natural.

Try To Remember lyrics by Tom Jones from “The Fantasticks”  1960

 

 

Four Days in Nunavut

Previous posts described how the Northwest Passage was treacherously laden with ice this year.  The image above shows the flash freezing in this region over the last four days.  Sept. 19 the CAA ice extent (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) was 320k km2, close to its annual minimum.  Yesterday MASIE showed 450k km2,  a 40% increase.

The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents totalling 4.74M km2 yesterday,  124k km2 above the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  NOAA’s Sea Ice Index is 119 k km2 lower, 2007 was 462k km2 lower, and 2012 1.2M km2 less ice extent.  A dip on day 252 to  4.43M km2 will certainly be the daily minimum for the year.  With typical refreezing to month end, we can expect the September monthly average will exceed 2007 by at least 300k to 400k km2.

 

 

 

 

People are overthinking and over-analyzing Arctic Ice extents, and getting wrapped around the axle (or should I say axis).  So let’s keep it simple and we can all readily understand what is happening up North.

I will use the ever popular NOAA dataset derived from satellite passive microwave sensors.  It sometimes understates the ice extents, but everyone refers to it and it is complete from 1979 to 2017.  Here’s what NOAA reports (in M km2):

If I were adding this to the Ice House of Mirrors, the name would be The X-Ray Ice Mirror, because it looks into the structure of the time series.   For even more clarity and simplicity, here is the table:

NOAA NH Annual Average Ice Extents (in M km2).  Sea Ice Index v3.0 (here)

Year	Average	Change	Rate of Change
1979	12.328
1994	12.011	-0.317	0.021 per year
2007	10.474	-1.537	0.118 per year
2017	10.393	-0.081	0.008 per year

The satellites involve rocket science, but this does not.  There was a small loss of ice extent over the first 15 years, then a dramatic downturn for 13 years, 6 times the rate as before. That was followed by the current plateau with virtually no further loss of ice extent.  All the fuss is over that middle period, and we know what caused it.  A lot of multi-year ice was flushed out through the Fram Strait, leaving behind more easily melted younger ice. The effects from that natural occurrence bottomed out in 2007.

Kwok et al say this about the Variability of Fram Strait ice flux:

The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978–1996) is 670,000 km2, ;7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 km2 in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 km2 in 1995. . .The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 km3 ranging from a low of 1375 km3 in the 1990 flux to a high of 2791 km3 in 1994.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261010602/download

Conclusion:

Some complain it is too soon to say Arctic Ice is recovering, or that 2007 is a true change point.  The same people were quick to jump on a declining period after 1994 as evidence of a “Death Spiral.”

Update September 25, 2018

Oh the irony!  Tamino accuses me of emulating Michael Mann and “hiding the decline” of sea ice, as opposed to temperatures.  In that case, where is my Nobel Prize?

But my humble efforts to tell the truth pale in comparison with Mann’s campaign to erase the medieval warm period.  His temperature trickery is described in Rise and Fall of the Modern Warming Spike

Footnote:

No one knows what will happen to Arctic ice.

Except maybe the polar bears.

And they are not talking.

Except, of course, to the admen from Coca-Cola

October Update:  Full September 2018 Results

More details at Try to Remember: There’s Ice in September

One week ago on day 252 MASIE reported the lowest daily extent of the year at 4.43M km2.  One week later the image above shows how the ice edges have refrozen and extended.  Note also the significant snowfall both in Canada and Russia

Mid September we can see the long predicted collapse of Arctic ice is postponed for yet another year.  The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents above 4.5M km2 for the month of September.  A dip on day 252 to  4.43M km2 will likely be the daily minimum for the year, since 200k km2 of ice has been added in the last week.  The graph also shows that 2018 is presently 96k km2 above the 11 year average ice extent, 350k km2 more than 2016,  472k km2 more than 2007, and 1.2M km2 (a full Wadham!) more than the record setting 2012.

Interestingly, in September until yesterday NOAA’s officially referenced Sea Ice Index (SII) was showing more ice than MASIE, by about 200k km2.  That means the SII September monthly result will continue the plateau in Arctic ice since 2007.

The table below shows ice extents in the various basins comprising the Arctic Ocean for day 259 for 2018 and 2007 in comparison to the 11 year averages (2007 to 2017 inclusive).

Region	2018259	Day 259  Average	2018-Ave.	2007259	2018-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4622484	4526053	96431	4150314	472171
(1) Beaufort_Sea	560233	471483	88750	515813	44420
(2) Chukchi_Sea	163790	150187	13604	48053	115737
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	467586	270891	196695	311	467275
(4) Laptev_Sea	27262	140510	-113248	238846	-211584
(5) Kara_Sea	235	23504	-23268	52498	-52263
(6) Barents_Sea	0	23798	-23798	7420	-7420
(7) Greenland_Sea	83223	203153	-119930	329643	-246420
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	40128	29596	10532	32287	7841
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	346993	274872	72121	237669	109324
(10) Hudson_Bay	6051	7085	-1034	4355	1697
(11) Central_Arctic	2926584	2929894	-3309	2682144	244440

Presently, 2018 is about 100k km2  or 2% above average, and 472k km2 or 11% more than 2007.  The Eastern Arctic shows surpluses in East Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort, and CAA.  The Western Arctic shows deficits in Laptev, Kara, Barents and Greenland seas.  The Central Arctic is matching average, while East Siberian sea ice is 73% above average.

As reported previously, the Northwest Passage through Nunavut was closed this year due to excessive and thick multiyear ice blocking the way.  The chart below shows the conditions as of Sept. 14.

It won’t get any better than this for yachts attempting the passage west, since more than 3/10 (green) ice conditions blocks their progress.  A post at the Northwest Passage blog S/V CRYSTAL Escape from Prince Regent Inlet  explains how the passage is closing.

Breaking through the ice corridor, already close to the shore, we suddenly saw something unusual. Static ice so far began to flow very rapidly towards the shore! In this way he closed the road ahead of us and – which is much worse – cut off our retreat. We turned back and rushed to escape. It was the only option.

We drove the gas to the top, and the free water in front of the bow disappeared in her eyes . Giant ice floes moved towards the shore like in a river stream. We jumped out of some of the channels with maybe a meter of side wall, and the path behind us disappeared after a few dozen seconds.

After about thirty minutes of such a crazy slalom we got to the water so slow that the danger of being closed and pressed to the shore was averted . That was good news for us. The bad news was that this time we were unable to get out of Prince Regent Inlet. It was waiting for the next chance . (note: the log is translated from Polish)

Update September 19, 2018

Here is the latest ice chart showing that in Franklin strait, all the green conditions (<3/10) are now gone, while red and brown are taking over.

Bottom line: They succeeded to get out and are now docked on Greenland coast.