Try to Remember: There’s Ice in September

Arctic Sept 2007 to 2018

With ten years of hyped claims about Arctic sea ice declining, it takes effort to remember that ice in the Northern Hemisphere isn’t going away.  This year’s monthly average for September (the annual minimum) is slightly lower than 2017, but still well above 2007.  MASIE shows a surplus of 300k km2 and SII shows 450k km2.  As a result, both linear trends are slightly positive, though I would call it a “plateau, ” as opposed to a “death spiral.”


Twelve Days in Nunavut

Previous posts described how the Northwest Passage was treacherously laden with ice this year.  The image above shows the flash freezing in this region over the last twelve days.  Sept. 18 the CAA ice extent (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) was 321k km2, close to its annual minimum.  Yesterday MASIE showed 606k km2,  a increase of 90% in that region.


The graph shows MASIE reporting Arctic ice extents totalling 4.93M km2 yesterday,  35k km2 below the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  NOAA’s Sea Ice Index is the same as MASIE, 2007 was 845k km2 lower, and 2012 1.1M km2 less ice extent.  A dip on day 252 to  4.43M km2 was an early daily minimum for the year.  As shown in the first graph, the September monthly average exceeded 2007 by 300k in MASIE and  400k km2 in SII.

The table below shows ice extents in the regions comprising the Arctic in September.

Region 2018273 Day 273 
2018-Ave. 2007273 2018-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 4931836 4966893 -35057 4086883 844953
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 622520 527098 95422 498743 123777
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 134120 210769 -76649 51 134069
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 378263 329380 48884 311 377952
 (4) Laptev_Sea 19790 186004 -166214 235245 -215455
 (5) Kara_Sea 235 30387 -30152 15367 -15132
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 18890 -18890 4851 -4851
 (7) Greenland_Sea 242190 235559 6631 353210 -111020
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 70138 51991 18148 42247 27891
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 606394 367879 238515 307135 299259
 (10) Hudson_Bay 4611 4458 153 1936 2674
 (11) Central_Arctic 2852432 3003376 -150944 2626511 225921

The total extent is down 35k km2 (less than 1%) below the 11 year average.  The deficit in Chuckchi is more than offset by surpluses in Beaufort and East Siberian.  On the European side are deficits in Laptev, Kara and Central Arctic, almost covered by the huge surplus in Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).

It’s all good.  It’s natural.

Try To Remember lyrics by Tom Jones from “The Fantasticks”  1960





  1. Hifast · October 1, 2018

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.


  2. angech · October 1, 2018

    Keep the good work up.I see you have got Tamino rattled again. He used a cherry pick argument against you conveniently cutting out 90% of the true values and just using anomalies.
    Looking at that Chukchi ice edge one can see extensive thin ice feathering out which might do a similar rapid referee in the next 2 weeks. The CAB east though looks at the moment as if it will need time to spread unless there is also some drift that way.


  3. angech · October 1, 2018



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