In the chart below MASIE shows 2016 Mid-July  Arctic ice extent has slipped below average and 2015. SII is back on line and was reporting similar extents during June (as it has in the past).  But in July SII is showing ~400k km2 less ice most days. (SII and MASIE comparison is here.)

Looking into the details, some marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively unaffected.  Despite greater losses in Okhotsk, 2016 ice extent in June is fairly ordinary with slight differences across the regions.  At the present pace of declining ice extents, 2016 is running three days ahead of the ten-year average, and seven days ahead of 2015.

As the chart below shows, the seas most down from average this year are Kara, Barents, Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay.  Meanwhile higher extents are showing in Chukchi, Laptev, and Hudson Bay, resulting in 2016 slightly below average. Beaufort Sea has returned to average after a weather event in June reduced ice by more than 150k km2.

Region	2016197	Day 197 Average	2016-Ave.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8139126	8345952	-206826
(1) Beaufort_Sea	844302	839527	4775
(2) Chukchi_Sea	698967	632572	66395
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	940706	944437	-3731
(4) Laptev_Sea	838590	592558	246032
(5) Kara_Sea	155252	371043	-215791
(6) Barents_Sea	35	54678	-54642
(7) Greenland_Sea	228393	428257	-199865
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	201400	272271	-70872
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	684418	709717	-25299
(10) Hudson_Bay	445064	316953	128111
(11) Central_Arctic	3100876	3178016	-77140
(12) Bering_Sea	0	1600	-1600
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	2	-2
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	0	3125	-3125

.

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas, now including Kara Sea as expected in July.

2016197	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% Total Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	6938473	46.02%	100%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	226143	21.13%	3%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	267022	27.64%	4%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	146414	13.47%	2%
(4) Laptev_Sea	59220	6.60%	1%
(5) Kara_Sea	779736	83.40%	11%
(6) Barents_Sea	599344	99.99%	8%
(7) Greenland_Sea	431320	65.38%	6%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1443182	87.75%	20%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	168760	19.78%	2%
(10) Hudson_Bay	815807	64.70%	11%
(11) Central_Arctic	145834	4.49%	2%
(12) Bering_Sea	768232	100.00%	11%
(13) Baltic_Sea	97582	100.00%	1%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1308697	100.00%	18%

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas (100% melted),along with Kara Sea, Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence (65+% melted).  All of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.  Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

CPC shows the Arctic Oscillation waffling between positive and negative values, recently positive and forecasted to near neutral. Generally, positive AO signifies lower pressures over Arctic ice, with more cloud, lower insolation and less melting.  The outlook at this point is mixed.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are well into the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  Early on, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, lower in May and now closing the gap. Note: 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with El Nino over, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO has been hovering around neutral, now possibly indicating cloud cover reducing the pace of melting.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

 

Footnote:  Regarding the colder than normal water in the North Atlantic

A 2016 article for EOS is entitled Atlantic Sea Ice Could Grow in the Next Decade

Changing ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could lead to winter sea ice coverage remaining steady and even growing in select regions.

The researchers analyzed simulations from the Community Earth System Model, modeling both atmosphere and ocean circulation. They found that decadal-scale trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are largely explained by changes in ocean circulation rather than by large-scale external factors like anthropogenic warming.

From the Abstract of Yeager et al.

We present evidence that the extreme negative trends in Arctic winter sea-ice extent in the late 1990s were a predictable consequence of the preceding decade of persistent positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and associated spin-up of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Initialized forecasts made with the Community Earth System Model decadal prediction system indicate that relatively low rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation in recent years will result in a continuation of a THC spin-down that began more than a decade ago. Consequently, projected 10-year trends in winter Arctic winter sea-ice extent seem likely to be much more positive than has recently been observed, with the possibility of actual decadal growth in Atlantic sea-ice in the near future.

In the chart below MASIE shows 2016 Mid-June  Arctic ice extent drew near to average and close to 2015, then dropped lower before again converging on average by the end.  Now in July 2016 is matching the average extent measured over the last ten years, 2006-2015.  With SII back on line, it was reporting similar extents during June (as it has in the past).  Recently it is starting to underestimate again, ~400k km2 lower. (SII and MASIE comparison is here.)

Looking into the details, some marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively unaffected.  In fact, a large difference between 2016 and 2015 comes from the losses from maximums in a single place: Sea of Okhotsk.  To date 1303k km2 of ice was lost this year vs. 753k km2 lost in 2015 in that sea at the same date.

Despite greater losses in Okhotsk, 2016 ice extent in July is fairly ordinary with slight differences across the regions.  At the present pace of declining ice extents, the last three days 2016 matches the ten-year average, and is four days ahead of 2015.

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas, now including Kara Sea as expected in June.  Most of the additional ice loss in July comes from Baffin and Hudson Bays.

2016188	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% Total Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	5880825	39.00%	100%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	243265	22.73%	4%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	214347	22.19%	3%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	26723	2.46%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	35559	3.96%	1%
(5) Kara_Sea	648206	69.33%	10%
(6) Barents_Sea	589137	98.29%	10%
(7) Greenland_Sea	300055	45.48%	5%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1266759	77.03%	20%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	88793	10.41%	1%
(10) Hudson_Bay	533623	42.32%	9%
(11) Central_Arctic	80724	2.49%	1%
(12) Bering_Sea	768232	100.00%	12%
(13) Baltic_Sea	97582	100.00%	2%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1306657	99.84%	21%

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas (95+% melted), along with Kara Sea and Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence (70+% melted).  Hudson  Bay has lost 42% of max extent.  All of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.  Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

For additional context on Arctic melt see last Arctic Ice Watch June 30

 

 

 

 

In the chart below MASIE shows 2016 Mid-June  Arctic ice extent drew near to average and close to 2015, then dropped lower before again converging on average by the end.  With SII back on line, it is reporting similar extents during June (as it has in the past), though it appears to start underestimating again. (SII and MASIE comparison is here.)

This year and last had the same average extents until May when a gap opened up associated with the Beaufort gyre high winds breaking up and moving ice to create 150 k km2 open water in that sea. The difference in Beaufort Sea had reduced to ~45 k below average, but the gap has reopened the last 2 days to ~125 k.

Looking into the details, some marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively unaffected.  In fact, a large difference between 2016 and 2015 comes from the losses from maximums in a single place: Sea of Okhotsk.  To date 1303k km2 of ice was lost this year vs. 753k km2 lost in 2015 in that sea at the same date.

Despite greater losses in Okhotsk, 2016 ice extent in June is fairly ordinary with slight differences across the regions.  At the present pace of declining ice extents, 2016 is running three days ahead of the ten-year average, and six days ahead of 2015.

As the chart below shows, the seas most down from average this year are Beaufort, Kara, Barents, and Greenland Sea.  Meanwhile higher extents are showing in Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Hudson Bay, resulting in 2016 below average.

Region	2016182	Day 182 Average	2016-Ave.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	9496516	9736362	-239846
(1) Beaufort_Sea	792915	920245	-127329
(2) Chukchi_Sea	775436	734342	41094
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1065714	1023242	42472
(4) Laptev_Sea	863015	713555	149460
(5) Kara_Sea	362414	561945	-199531
(6) Barents_Sea	25988	110950	-84962
(7) Greenland_Sea	367846	518951	-151105
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	465379	483472	-18093
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	791274	774241	17033
(10) Hudson_Bay	803437	658144	145293
(11) Central_Arctic	3176041	3211595	-35554
(12) Bering_Sea	0	6730	-6730
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	6	-6
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	5914	17526	-11612

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas, now including Kara Sea as expected in June.

2016182	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% Total Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	5581083	37.02%	100%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	277530	25.93%	5%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	190553	19.73%	3%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	21406	1.97%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	34794	3.88%	1%
(5) Kara_Sea	572574	61.24%	10%
(6) Barents_Sea	573391	95.66%	10%
(7) Greenland_Sea	291866	44.24%	5%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1179203	71.70%	20%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	61904	7.26%	1%
(10) Hudson_Bay	457434	36.28%	8%
(11) Central_Arctic	70669	2.18%	1%
(12) Bering_Sea	768232	100.00%	13%
(13) Baltic_Sea	97582	100.00%	2%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1302782	99.55%	22%

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas (95+% melted),along with Kara Sea and Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence (60+% melted).  All of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.  Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

CPC shows the Arctic Oscillation waffling between positive and negative values, recently positive and forecasted to near neutral. Generally, positive AO signifies lower pressures over Arctic ice, with more cloud, lower insolation and less melting.  The outlook at this point is mixed.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are well into the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  Early on, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, lower in May and now closing the gap. Note: 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with El Nino over, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO has been hovering around neutral, now possibly indicating cloud cover reducing the pace of melting.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

 

Footnote:  Regarding the colder than normal water in the North Atlantic

A 2016 article for EOS is entitled Atlantic Sea Ice Could Grow in the Next Decade

Changing ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could lead to winter sea ice coverage remaining steady and even growing in select regions.

The researchers analyzed simulations from the Community Earth System Model, modeling both atmosphere and ocean circulation. They found that decadal-scale trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are largely explained by changes in ocean circulation rather than by large-scale external factors like anthropogenic warming.

From the Abstract of Yeager et al.

We present evidence that the extreme negative trends in Arctic winter sea-ice extent in the late 1990s were a predictable consequence of the preceding decade of persistent positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and associated spin-up of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Initialized forecasts made with the Community Earth System Model decadal prediction system indicate that relatively low rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation in recent years will result in a continuation of a THC spin-down that began more than a decade ago. Consequently, projected 10-year trends in winter Arctic winter sea-ice extent seem likely to be much more positive than has recently been observed, with the possibility of actual decadal growth in Atlantic sea-ice in the near future.

In the chart below MASIE shows June  Arctic ice extent has drawn nearer average and close to 2015 at this point in the year.

This year and last had the same average extents until May when a gap opened up associated with the Beaufort gyre high winds breaking up and moving ice to create 150k km2 open water in that sea. The difference in Beaufort Sea is now ~40k km2 between 2016 and 2015.

Looking into the details, some marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively unaffected.  In fact, a large difference between 2016 and 2015 comes from the losses from maximums in a single place: Sea of Okhotsk:  To date 1275k km2 of ice lost this year vs. 740k km2 lost in 2015 in that sea at the same date.

Despite greater losses in Okhotsk, 2016 ice extent in June is nearly typical with slight differences across the regions.  At the present pace of declining ice extents, 2016 is virtually tied with 2015 and running four days ahead of the ten-year average.

As the chart below shows, the seas down most this year include Beaufort, Barents, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay.  Meanwhile higher extents are showing in Chukchi, Kara, Laptev and Hudson Bay, resulting in 2016 only slightly below 2015 overall.  The Central Arctic Sea is slightly above 2015.

Ice Extents			Ice Extent
Region	2015166	2016166	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10791329	10749626	-41703
(1) Beaufort_Sea	948114	906972	-41142
(2) Chukchi_Sea	747954	836166	88212
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1084037	1084831	794
(4) Laptev_Sea	825271	890792	65522
(5) Kara_Sea	602369	674328	71959
(6) Barents_Sea	170125	76864	-93261
(7) Greenland_Sea	613376	532214	-81162
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	776625	649408	-127218
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	790324	803589	13265
(10) Hudson_Bay	988976	1029192	40216
(11) Central_Arctic	3200053	3221196	21144
(12) Bering_Sea	3875	9080	5205
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	33	33
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	39088	33819	-5269

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas, as expected in June.

2016166	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% Total Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4327974	28.70%	100%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	163473	15.27%	3%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	129823	13.44%	3%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	2289	0.21%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	7017	0.78%	0%
(5) Kara_Sea	260660	27.88%	6%
(6) Barents_Sea	522515	87.18%	11%
(7) Greenland_Sea	127498	19.33%	3%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	995175	60.51%	21%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	49590	5.81%	1%
(10) Hudson_Bay	231679	18.37%	5%
(11) Central_Arctic	25514	0.79%	1%
(12) Bering_Sea	759152	98.82%	16%
(13) Baltic_Sea	97549	99.97%	2%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1274877	97.42%	27%

Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas, along with Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence; all of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September, and only Baffin has more than 12% of its ice left.

CPC shows the Arctic Oscillation waffling between positive and negative values, now forecasted to go positive. Generally, positive AO signifies lower pressures over Arctic ice, with more cloud, lower insolation and less melting.  The outlook at this point is mixed.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are well into the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  Early on, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, lower in May and now closing the gap. Note: 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with El Nino over, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO has been hovering around neutral, now possibly indicating cloud cover reducing the pace of melting.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

 

Footnote:  Regarding the colder than normal water in the North Atlantic

A 2016 article for EOS is entitled Atlantic Sea Ice Could Grow in the Next Decade

Changing ocean circulation in the North Atlantic could lead to winter sea ice coverage remaining steady and even growing in select regions.

The researchers analyzed simulations from the Community Earth System Model, modeling both atmosphere and ocean circulation. They found that decadal-scale trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are largely explained by changes in ocean circulation rather than by large-scale external factors like anthropogenic warming.

From the Abstract of Yeager et al.

We present evidence that the extreme negative trends in Arctic winter sea-ice extent in the late 1990s were a predictable consequence of the preceding decade of persistent positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and associated spin-up of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Initialized forecasts made with the Community Earth System Model decadal prediction system indicate that relatively low rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation in recent years will result in a continuation of a THC spin-down that began more than a decade ago. Consequently, projected 10-year trends in winter Arctic winter sea-ice extent seem likely to be much more positive than has recently been observed, with the possibility of actual decadal growth in Atlantic sea-ice in the near future.

 

In the chart below MASIE shows May Arctic ice extent is below average and lower than 2015 at this point in the year.

Comparing the first 5 months of the melt season shows why 2016 so far is a so-so melt season, meaning not very good, not very bad; or same old, same old if you prefer.

Monthly	2016	2015	2016-2015
Averages	MASIE	MASIE	MASIE
Jan	13.922	13.941	-0.019
Feb	14.804	14.683	0.121
Mar	14.769	14.668	0.101
Apr	13.917	14.121	-0.204
May	12.086	12.646	-0.560
YTD Ave.	13.900	14.012	-0.112

Until May, the two years had the same average extents.

Looking into the details, the difference arises from some marginal seas melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively unaffected.  In fact, the overall difference between 2016 and 2015 is similar to comparable losses from maximums in a single place: Sea of Okhotsk:  To date 1231k km2 of ice lost this year vs. 696k km2 lost in 2015 in that sea at the same date.

Ice Extents			Ice Extent
Region	2015152	2016152	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11451596	11019134	-432462
(1) Beaufort_Sea	964315	826699	-137616
(2) Chukchi_Sea	842142	851939	9797
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1079340	1067698	-11641
(4) Laptev_Sea	866996	879446	12450
(5) Kara_Sea	765985	805737	39752
(6) Barents_Sea	249999	79548	-170451
(7) Greenland_Sea	536081	515701	-20380
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1015753	863421	-152333
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	806783	814863	8080
(10) Hudson_Bay	1005981	1040263	34282
(11) Central_Arctic	3219508	3131102	-88406
(12) Bering_Sea	14523	61632	47108
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	1441	1441
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	82806	78103	-4703

Of interest this year is the Beaufort Gyre cranking up ten days into May, compacting ice and reducing extent by about 150k km2, and putting the loss there ahead of last year.  As Susan Crockford points out (here), this is not melting but ice breaking up and moving. Of course, warmists predict that will result in more melting later on, which remains to be seen. In any case, Beaufort extent is down 23% from its max, which amounts to 5% of losses from all Arctic seas so far.

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas, as expected in May.

2016152	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% Total Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4058466	26.92%	100%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	243746	22.77%	5%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	114050	11.81%	3%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	19422	1.79%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	18363	2.05%	0%
(5) Kara_Sea	129252	13.82%	3%
(6) Barents_Sea	519831	86.73%	12%
(7) Greenland_Sea	144011	21.83%	3%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	781161	47.50%	18%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	38316	4.49%	1%
(10) Hudson_Bay	220608	17.50%	5%
(11) Central_Arctic	115608	3.56%	3%
(12) Bering_Sea	706600	91.98%	16%
(13) Baltic_Sea	96141	98.52%	2%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1230594	94.03%	28%

Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas, along with Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence; all of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September, and only Baffin has more than 15% of its ice left. The entire difference between 2016 and 2015 arises from Okhotsk starting with about 500k km2 more ice this year, and arriving at this date virtually tied with 2015.

CPC shows the Arctic Oscillation waffling between positive and negative values, recently negative and forecasted to rise back toward neutral. Generally, negative AO signifies higher pressures over Arctic ice, with less cloud, higher insolation and more melting.  The outlook at this point is mixed.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, and is now trending toward a lower May extent.  OTOH 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO hovering around neutral, giving no direction whether cloud cover will reduce the pace of melting or not.

A so-so year is like a glass half full or half empty.  If you are hoping for an Arctic ice decline, 2016 so far is good, but not very.  If you want Arctic ice to hold steady, the year is bad, but not very.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

In the chart below MASIE shows Arctic ice extent is below average and lower than 2015 at this point in the year.

Looking into the details, it is clear that the marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central ice pack is holding steady.

Ice Extents			Ice Extent
Region	2015136	2016136	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12585032	12116610	-468423
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1033428	942536	-90892
(2) Chukchi_Sea	930045	933354	3309
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087120	-17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	899673	864423	-35250
(6) Barents_Sea	337707	222091	-115616
(7) Greenland_Sea	615714	575320	-40395
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1201099	1015356	-185743
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	833900	830174	-3726
(10) Hudson_Bay	1175953	1185893	9940
(11) Central_Arctic	3237268	3198923	-38345
(12) Bering_Sea	153646	160277	6630
(13) Baltic_Sea	66	2839	2774
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	180119	198519	18400

Another difference this year is the Beaufort Gyre cranking up ten days ago, compacting ice and reducing extent by about 150k km2, and putting the loss ahead of last year.  As Susan Crockford points out (here), this is not melting but ice breaking up and moving. Of course, warmists predict that will result in more melting later on, which remains to be seen. In any case, Beaufort extent is down 12% from max, which amounts to 1% of the NH ice loss so far.

Comparing the Arctic seas extents with their maximums shows the melting at the margins:

2016136	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% NH Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	2960990	19.64%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	127909	11.95%	1%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	32636	3.38%	0%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	0	0.00%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	0	0.00%	0%
(5) Kara_Sea	70565	7.55%	0%
(6) Barents_Sea	377288	62.95%	3%
(7) Greenland_Sea	84393	12.79%	1%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	629226	38.26%	4%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	23004	2.70%	0%
(10) Hudson_Bay	74977	5.95%	1%
(11) Central_Arctic	47787	1.47%	0%
(12) Bering_Sea	607955	79.14%	4%
(13) Baltic_Sea	94743	97.09%	1%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1110178	84.83%	8%

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas, along with Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence; all of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.  The entire difference between 2016 and 2015 arises from Okhotsk starting with about 500k km2 more ice this year, and arriving at this date virtually tied with 2015.

Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

AER says this about the Arctic Oscillation (AO):

Currently, the AO is negative and is predicted to slowly trend towards neutral (Figure 1). The current negative AO is reflective of positive geopotential height anomalies across much of the Arctic, especially the North Atlantic side and mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, and is now trending toward a lower May extent.  OTOH 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO is presently neutral, giving no direction whether cloud cover will reduce the pace of melting or not.  Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

 

On May1, we have the complete Arctic ice extent record for April 2016.  So we can look at how the melt season is progressing. As you can see, the ice is down a little, but no reason to put out a distress signal.

These are results from MASIE, the most accurate dataset. SII from NOAA is shown with the data available as of today. Clearly, SII is having unresolved technical difficulties, and April stats are NA.

MASIE shows 2016 less than the ten-year average and slightly less than last year at end of April. 2016 average for April is about 200k km2 less than 2015, exactly offsetting the surpluses of ice in February and March.

Here is how the melting is occurring in the various Arctic seas.

April 30, 2016 day 121	km2 loss	% loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	1774019	11.77%
(6) Barents_Sea	250990	41.87%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	461154	28.04%
(12) Bering_Sea	432513	56.30%
(13) Baltic_Sea	76897	78.80%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	800810	61.19%

The losses are the difference from the recorded maximums. All other seas are at or more than 96% of max.

Since some seas are not at max on the day of NH max, adding losses from individual seas will vary from the NH total.

So May starts with this year and last in similar overall positions. However, the details are different. Here is the two Day 121 extents compared.

Ice Extents	2015	2016	Ice Extent
Region	2015121	2016121	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13369057	13303581	-65476
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070445	1070445	0
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965922	965989	67
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1086657	1087120	463
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	934122	904700	-29422
(6) Barents_Sea	441590	348389	-93201
(7) Greenland_Sea	583660	633443	49783
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1329843	1183429	-146415
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853214	853178	-36
(10) Hudson_Bay	1230587	1254066	23479
(11) Central_Arctic	3240913	3238746	-2167
(12) Bering_Sea	401377	335719	-65658
(13) Baltic_Sea	4407	20686	16279
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	326536	507886	181351

The table shows a small overall difference of 65k km2. The losses are principally in Bering, Barents and Baffin bay, offset by surpluses in Okhotsk and Greenland Seas. So far the main locations of persistent ice are showing no signs of melting: BCE, Central Arctic and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).

Summary

Arctic ice is melting as it normally does in April, and no one knows what will happen in May and afterwards.  Stay tuned.

Lots of stories predicting (hoping) that Arctic ice will go lower than 2012 and resuscitate the  Arctic “death spiral”.  And we can surely predict that Peter Wadhams will predict a September Arctic minimum of 1M km2, as he does every year.

But there’s a long way to go before then, and some historical context is in order.

September Minimum Outlook
Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH extents come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March and is trending toward a similar April extent.  Also 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  It is too early to put Arctic Ice on life support. Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.