In the chart below MASIE shows May Arctic ice extent is below average and lower than 2015 at this point in the year.

Comparing the first 5 months of the melt season shows why 2016 so far is a so-so melt season, meaning not very good, not very bad; or same old, same old if you prefer.

Monthly	2016	2015	2016-2015
Averages	MASIE	MASIE	MASIE
Jan	13.922	13.941	-0.019
Feb	14.804	14.683	0.121
Mar	14.769	14.668	0.101
Apr	13.917	14.121	-0.204
May	12.086	12.646	-0.560
YTD Ave.	13.900	14.012	-0.112

Until May, the two years had the same average extents.

Looking into the details, the difference arises from some marginal seas melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively unaffected.  In fact, the overall difference between 2016 and 2015 is similar to comparable losses from maximums in a single place: Sea of Okhotsk:  To date 1231k km2 of ice lost this year vs. 696k km2 lost in 2015 in that sea at the same date.

Ice Extents			Ice Extent
Region	2015152	2016152	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11451596	11019134	-432462
(1) Beaufort_Sea	964315	826699	-137616
(2) Chukchi_Sea	842142	851939	9797
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1079340	1067698	-11641
(4) Laptev_Sea	866996	879446	12450
(5) Kara_Sea	765985	805737	39752
(6) Barents_Sea	249999	79548	-170451
(7) Greenland_Sea	536081	515701	-20380
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1015753	863421	-152333
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	806783	814863	8080
(10) Hudson_Bay	1005981	1040263	34282
(11) Central_Arctic	3219508	3131102	-88406
(12) Bering_Sea	14523	61632	47108
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	1441	1441
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	82806	78103	-4703

Of interest this year is the Beaufort Gyre cranking up ten days into May, compacting ice and reducing extent by about 150k km2, and putting the loss there ahead of last year.  As Susan Crockford points out (here), this is not melting but ice breaking up and moving. Of course, warmists predict that will result in more melting later on, which remains to be seen. In any case, Beaufort extent is down 23% from its max, which amounts to 5% of losses from all Arctic seas so far.

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas, as expected in May.

2016152	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% Total Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	4058466	26.92%	100%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	243746	22.77%	5%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	114050	11.81%	3%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	19422	1.79%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	18363	2.05%	0%
(5) Kara_Sea	129252	13.82%	3%
(6) Barents_Sea	519831	86.73%	12%
(7) Greenland_Sea	144011	21.83%	3%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	781161	47.50%	18%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	38316	4.49%	1%
(10) Hudson_Bay	220608	17.50%	5%
(11) Central_Arctic	115608	3.56%	3%
(12) Bering_Sea	706600	91.98%	16%
(13) Baltic_Sea	96141	98.52%	2%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1230594	94.03%	28%

Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas, along with Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence; all of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September, and only Baffin has more than 15% of its ice left. The entire difference between 2016 and 2015 arises from Okhotsk starting with about 500k km2 more ice this year, and arriving at this date virtually tied with 2015.

CPC shows the Arctic Oscillation waffling between positive and negative values, recently negative and forecasted to rise back toward neutral. Generally, negative AO signifies higher pressures over Arctic ice, with less cloud, higher insolation and more melting.  The outlook at this point is mixed.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, and is now trending toward a lower May extent.  OTOH 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO hovering around neutral, giving no direction whether cloud cover will reduce the pace of melting or not.

A so-so year is like a glass half full or half empty.  If you are hoping for an Arctic ice decline, 2016 so far is good, but not very.  If you want Arctic ice to hold steady, the year is bad, but not very.

Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

In the chart below MASIE shows Arctic ice extent is below average and lower than 2015 at this point in the year.

Looking into the details, it is clear that the marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central ice pack is holding steady.

Ice Extents			Ice Extent
Region	2015136	2016136	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12585032	12116610	-468423
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1033428	942536	-90892
(2) Chukchi_Sea	930045	933354	3309
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087120	-17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	899673	864423	-35250
(6) Barents_Sea	337707	222091	-115616
(7) Greenland_Sea	615714	575320	-40395
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1201099	1015356	-185743
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	833900	830174	-3726
(10) Hudson_Bay	1175953	1185893	9940
(11) Central_Arctic	3237268	3198923	-38345
(12) Bering_Sea	153646	160277	6630
(13) Baltic_Sea	66	2839	2774
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	180119	198519	18400

Another difference this year is the Beaufort Gyre cranking up ten days ago, compacting ice and reducing extent by about 150k km2, and putting the loss ahead of last year.  As Susan Crockford points out (here), this is not melting but ice breaking up and moving. Of course, warmists predict that will result in more melting later on, which remains to be seen. In any case, Beaufort extent is down 12% from max, which amounts to 1% of the NH ice loss so far.

Comparing the Arctic seas extents with their maximums shows the melting at the margins:

2016136	NH Max Loss	% Loss Sea Max	% NH Loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	2960990	19.64%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	127909	11.95%	1%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	32636	3.38%	0%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	0	0.00%	0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	0	0.00%	0%
(5) Kara_Sea	70565	7.55%	0%
(6) Barents_Sea	377288	62.95%	3%
(7) Greenland_Sea	84393	12.79%	1%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	629226	38.26%	4%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	23004	2.70%	0%
(10) Hudson_Bay	74977	5.95%	1%
(11) Central_Arctic	47787	1.47%	0%
(12) Bering_Sea	607955	79.14%	4%
(13) Baltic_Sea	94743	97.09%	1%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1110178	84.83%	8%

It is clear from the above that the bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas, along with Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence; all of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.  The entire difference between 2016 and 2015 arises from Okhotsk starting with about 500k km2 more ice this year, and arriving at this date virtually tied with 2015.

Note: Some seas are not at max on the NH max day.  Thus, totals from adding losses will vary from NH daily total.

AER says this about the Arctic Oscillation (AO):

Currently, the AO is negative and is predicted to slowly trend towards neutral (Figure 1). The current negative AO is reflective of positive geopotential height anomalies across much of the Arctic, especially the North Atlantic side and mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes.

September Minimum Outlook

Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH minimums come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March, and is now trending toward a lower May extent.  OTOH 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  The AO is presently neutral, giving no direction whether cloud cover will reduce the pace of melting or not.  Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

 

On May1, we have the complete Arctic ice extent record for April 2016.  So we can look at how the melt season is progressing. As you can see, the ice is down a little, but no reason to put out a distress signal.

These are results from MASIE, the most accurate dataset. SII from NOAA is shown with the data available as of today. Clearly, SII is having unresolved technical difficulties, and April stats are NA.

MASIE shows 2016 less than the ten-year average and slightly less than last year at end of April. 2016 average for April is about 200k km2 less than 2015, exactly offsetting the surpluses of ice in February and March.

Here is how the melting is occurring in the various Arctic seas.

April 30, 2016 day 121	km2 loss	% loss
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	1774019	11.77%
(6) Barents_Sea	250990	41.87%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	461154	28.04%
(12) Bering_Sea	432513	56.30%
(13) Baltic_Sea	76897	78.80%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	800810	61.19%

The losses are the difference from the recorded maximums. All other seas are at or more than 96% of max.

Since some seas are not at max on the day of NH max, adding losses from individual seas will vary from the NH total.

So May starts with this year and last in similar overall positions. However, the details are different. Here is the two Day 121 extents compared.

Ice Extents	2015	2016	Ice Extent
Region	2015121	2016121	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13369057	13303581	-65476
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070445	1070445	0
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965922	965989	67
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1086657	1087120	463
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	934122	904700	-29422
(6) Barents_Sea	441590	348389	-93201
(7) Greenland_Sea	583660	633443	49783
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1329843	1183429	-146415
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853214	853178	-36
(10) Hudson_Bay	1230587	1254066	23479
(11) Central_Arctic	3240913	3238746	-2167
(12) Bering_Sea	401377	335719	-65658
(13) Baltic_Sea	4407	20686	16279
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	326536	507886	181351

The table shows a small overall difference of 65k km2. The losses are principally in Bering, Barents and Baffin bay, offset by surpluses in Okhotsk and Greenland Seas. So far the main locations of persistent ice are showing no signs of melting: BCE, Central Arctic and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).

Summary

Arctic ice is melting as it normally does in April, and no one knows what will happen in May and afterwards.  Stay tuned.

Lots of stories predicting (hoping) that Arctic ice will go lower than 2012 and resuscitate the  Arctic “death spiral”.  And we can surely predict that Peter Wadhams will predict a September Arctic minimum of 1M km2, as he does every year.

But there’s a long way to go before then, and some historical context is in order.

September Minimum Outlook
Historically, where will ice be remaining when Arctic melting stops? Over the last 10 years, on average MASIE shows the annual minimum occurring about day 260. Of course in a given year, the daily minimum varies slightly a few days +/- from that.

For comparison, here are sea ice extents reported from 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2015 for day 260:

Arctic Regions	2007	2012	2014	2015
Central Arctic Sea	2.67	2.64	2.98	2.93
BCE	0.50	0.31	1.38	0.89
Greenland & CAA	0.56	0.41	0.55	0.46
Bits & Pieces	0.32	0.04	0.22	0.15
NH Total	4.05	3.40	5.13	4.44

Notes: Extents are in M km2.  BCE region includes Beaufort, Chukchi and Eastern Siberian seas. Greenland Sea (not the ice sheet). Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).  Locations of the Bits and Pieces vary.

As the table shows, low NH extents come mainly from ice losses in Central Arctic and BCE.  The great 2012 cyclone hit both in order to set the recent record. The recovery since 2012 shows in 2014, with some dropoff last year, mostly in BCE.

Summary

We are only beginning the melt season, and the resulting minimum will depend upon the vagaries of weather between now and September.  At the moment, 2016 was slightly higher than 2015 in March and is trending toward a similar April extent.  Also 2016 melt season is starting without the Blob, with a declining El Nino, and a cold blob in the North Atlantic.  It is too early to put Arctic Ice on life support. Meanwhile we can watch and appreciate the beauty of the changing ice conditions.

The melt season is under way, and ice extents are shrinking in the usual places: Barents, Bering, Baffin Bay and Okhotsk. Nothing much is happening elsewhere.

As of day 2016  106	km2 max lost	%  loss sea max
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	1039707	6.9%
(1) Beaufort_Sea	5246	0.5%
(2) Chukchi_Sea	949	0.1%
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	0	0.0%
(4) Laptev_Sea	0	0.0%
(5) Kara_Sea	9892	1.1%
(6) Barents_Sea	141054	23.5%
(7) Greenland_Sea	0	0.0%
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	370444	22.5%
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	2532	0.3%
(10) Hudson_Bay	2945	0.2%
(11) Central_Arctic	8171	0.3%
(12) Bering_Sea	144767	18.8%
(13) Baltic_Sea	75572	77.4%
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	596646	45.6%
(15) Yellow_Sea	55182	100.0%
(16) Cook_Inlet	5150	100.0%

It should be noted that Greenland Sea set a new max yesterday, and Central Arctic has risen lately near to its max on January 6.  Those seas are more likely to sustain ice extent through the September minimum.

The graph of MASIE data shows 2016 is virtually tied with 2015 and both are below the ten-year average.  SII started to be unreliable after day 97.

Looking at specific seas comparing this year and last:

Ice Extents	2015	2016	Ice Extent
Region	2015106	2016106	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14049007	14037892	-11115
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070445	1065199	-5246
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965040	-966
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087120	-17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	918774	925096	6323
(6) Barents_Sea	391374	458325	66951
(7) Greenland_Sea	579909	659712	79804
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1570273	1274139	-296134
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853214	850646	-2568
(10) Hudson_Bay	1258284	1257926	-358
(11) Central_Arctic	3219523	3237378	17855
(12) Bering_Sea	649827	623466	-26361
(13) Baltic_Sea	9568	22011	12443
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	574873	712050	137177

Clearly the main difference in 2016 is more rapid melting in Baffin Bay, and Bering Sea down slightly.  Many seas are similar, and some are higher including Barents, Greenland and Okhotsk (a lot).

Summary:

Fasten your seat belts–Arctic melt season is underway.  Alarmists are rooting for more water, less ice, thinking that proves fossil fuels are warming the planet (it doesn’t).  Normal people figure some ice loss is a good thing, because it means the next ice age is another year further away.  Too much ice loss is bad because it may lead ignorant politicians to make stupid energy policies.

Anyway, the melt season is always entertaining and unpredictable, with unforeseen weather events overturning expected results.  Stay tuned.

Note:

On another thread I was asked about some recent scary reports about Greenland’s ice sheet. Since that is land ice, it is not included in sea ice measurements.  There is a balanced and informative article on DMI’s observations:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/0414/Greenland-s-early-ice-melt-breaks-records.-What-s-behind-the-thaw

They refer to extent of 1 mm melting of the surface, and note an event in 2012 where 95% of the sheet had 1 mm or more melt water. Snow fall accumulates into ice, and also as the sheet grows, there is some calving of the surplus, also resulting in losses, but not in reducing the total ice.

I am skeptical of alarms about Greenland, as I posted in Greenland is Melting. Really?

The point is, Greenland ice sheet is also dynamic, meaning there is annually both ice melting and ice forming; the net is what matters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry to be serious on April 1.  I am not a fan of ice charts restricted to one month, for reasons illustrated in the post Ice House of Mirrors (some humor there in honor of this day.) But March monthly average sets the baseline for the year’s melt season, and so there is considerable attention and significance attached to the month just concluded.

Here is a chart showing March 2016 compared to the previous ten Marches according to two different indices of Sea Ice Extent: MASIE (Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent) produced by the National Ice Center and SII (Sea Ice Index) produced by NOAA (both accessed at NSIDC).

It is evident that the March annual maximum is trending slightly upward in MASIE and slightly downward in SII. Note that the indices were quite similar the first five years. Then since 2010, SII has declined quite strongly.

Note on Sea Ice Resolution:

Sea Ice Index from NOAA is based on 25 km cells and 15% ice coverage. That means if a grid cell 25X25, or 625 km2 is estimated to have at least 15% ice, then 625 km2 is added to the total extent. In the mapping details, grid cells vary between 382 to 664 km2 with latitudes.  And the satellites’ Field of View (FOV) is actually an ellipsoid ranging from 486 to 3330 km2 depending on the channel and frequency.  More info is here.

MASIE is based on 4 km cells and 40% ice coverage. Thus, for MASIE estimates, if a grid cell is deemed to have at least 40% ice, then 16 km2 is added to the total extent.

The significantly higher resolution in MASIE means that any error in detecting ice cover at the threshold level affects only 16 km2 in the MASIE total, versus at least 600 km2 variation in SII.  A few dozen SII cells falling below the 15% threshold is reported as a sizeable loss of ice in the Arctic.

Putting NOAA Reports in Context

With the background above, we can interpret NOAA`s meaning when they report (here) that 2016 winter ice extent is the smallest on record. That refers to the annual maximum daily extent they observed on March 24. Climatology usually uses the March average to indicate the year’s maximum (given the volatility of daily readings). As we can see, 2016 March average was higher than 2015, virtually tied with 2006 and just below 2011. SII showed March ice to be 364k km2 less than MASIE.

NOAA: “The extent in 2016 was 431,000 square miles (1.12 million square kilometers) below the 1981–2010 average, which is like carving away an area of ice the combined size of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and most of Louisiana.”

In other words, 2016 is below average by about the size of 2000 grid cells in their system, or 1.5% out of 136,192.  

For more background on the two datasets see here.

2016 in Perspective

As an example, consider how this March compares in the two indices.

In the graph MASIE shows 2016 starting the month at average extent, then declining and then recovering.  2016 ended below average in extent and comparable to 2015.  Meanwhile SII showed much less extent, rising to a late maximum and then declining sharply to be 400k km2 less at day 91.

Results for the first quarter of the year show the large differences between the two indices. SII portrays this winter as abnormally low, while MASIE shows an average year, slightly higher than 2015.

Looking at the extents in the various seas making up the NH Sea Ice, it is clear that all are typical, with three exceptions.  Compared to 2015, Barents and Baffin Bay are down (Barents lost 100k km2 in the last five days), while Okhotsk surplus more than offsets the losses elsewhere.

Summary:

As the divergence of SII increases, it becomes less clear what it is really measuring.

The tables below give the reported ice extents in M km2:

Month	2016	2016	MASIE	SII	SII Deficit
Averages	MASIE	SII	2016-2015	2016-2015	SII-MASIE
Jan	13.922	13.472	-0.019	-0.131	-0.450
Feb	14.804	14.210	0.121	-0.199	-0.593
Mar	14.769	14.405	0.101	0.038	-0.364

 

A stunning turnaround by Arctic Sea Ice. In March Madness terms we could say: “We have a ballgame!.” Those saying Arctic ice would be a big loser in 2016 may have to eat crow.

Yesterday NH ice extent grew dramatically to take a slight lead over the ten year average for day 84, and is 99% of 2016 maximum set on day 61. At 14.91 M km2 that is 330k km2 more than 2015 and 350k km2 more than SII is showing.

Yesterday MASIE showed a new high extent for 2016 in strategically located Barents Sea. Also the Central Arctic grew to a virtual tie with its maximum set early January 2016. All seas gained ice or held their maximums, except for a small loss in Okhotsk.

 

’

Earlier I compared this month in the Arctic to the March Madness of the NCAA basketball tournament, with intense competition and surprising results.  In the first half of March, the ocean water was scoring at will against the ice pack, and warnings of huge losses were announced.

In the second half, however, the ice is making a comeback, and the March outcome is still in doubt. This is important because March average extent sets the baseline for the melt season to come.

MASIE shows significant gains in the last week, while SII has grown to set a new maximum for the year on day 81. Notably, Barents has gained back 228k km2, Greenland Sea added 81k and Bering Sea 138k, and  the Central Arctic 90k. While Okhotsk has lost ice,  as readers already know, Okhotsk Sea is actually outside the Arctic Circle and will melt out completely. Barents and Greenland Seas are located at the nexus of the Arctic and the North Atlantic and impact greatly the Arctic ocean as a whole. Bering is also important positioned at the Pacific gateway into the Arctic.

For more on discrepancies between MASIE and SII see here.

Update March 26

Some have expressed concern that high pressure over the Arctic could accelerate the flow of ice out through the Fram Strait.  That is an important consideration.  In a recent post I pointed to work by Russian scientists showing that in fact the removal of ice bergs through Fram opens up area in the Central Arctic for more ice to form.  Their analysis says that after an acceleration of Fram ice loss, 4 to 6 years later there is an overall increase in ice extent, especially in the Siberian seas.

Guess what?  The massive cyclone in 2012 pushed out lots of ice, and here we are 4 years later with ice growth appearing.

More on this is here: https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/the-great-arctic-ice-exchange/

With the Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected to hover around neutral over the next two weeks, Arctic ice extent is unpredictable.

 

’

Earlier I compared this month in the Arctic to the March Madness of the NCAA basketball tournament, with intense competition and surprising results.  In the first half of March, the ocean water was scoring at will against the ice pack, and warnings of huge losses were announced.

In the second half, however, the ice is making a comeback, and the March outcome is still in doubt. This is important because March average extent sets the baseline for the melt season to come. At this point, 3/4 through March, MASIE shows the average monthly extent below the ten-year average but higher than 2015.

MASIE shows significant gains in the last week, while SII has grown to set a new maximum for the year 2 days ago. Notably, Barents has gained back about 150k km2, Greenland Sea added 70k and Bering Sea 110k, while Okhotsk has lost 100k. As readers already know, Okhotsk Sea is actually outside the Arctic Circle and will melt out completely. While Barents and Greenland Seas are located at the nexus of the Arctic and the North Atlantic and impact greatly the Arctic ocean as a whole. Bering is also important positioned at the Pacific gateway into the Arctic.

For more on discrepancies between MASIE and SII see here.

With the Arctic Oscillation (AO) expected to hover around neutral over the next two weeks, Arctic ice extent is unpredictable.

 

Updating Arctic ice extents for the first 20 days of March the peak ice month. Lots of changes and surprises, just like the NCAA basketball tournament.

MASIE shows March 2 as the daily annual maximum, both on average over ten years, and in 2015. March 1, 2016 was the daily max, and SII shows an extent that day lower by 635k km2.  (SII refers to Sea Ice Index produced by NOAA@NSIDC)

As March has progressed, this year and last MASIE shows ice has declined. Meanwhile MASIE ten year average held steady, and 2016 SII added extent in the last week. The gap between MASIE and SII is narrowing in 2016, though SII extents still average almost 400k km2 less for March.

Ice Extents	2015	2016	Ice Extent
Region	2015080	2016080	km2 Diff.
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14634556	14593011	-41545
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070445	1070445	0
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965989	-17
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087120	-17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897809	-36
(5) Kara_Sea	920392	916674	-3719
(6) Barents_Sea	548675	396037	-152638
(7) Greenland_Sea	666601	557940	-108661
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1829904	1599833	-230072
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	853214	853178	-36
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260871	-33
(11) Central_Arctic	3248013	3191707	-56306
(12) Bering_Sea	657014	642235	-14779
(13) Baltic_Sea	14462	42460	27998
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	606552	1108734	502182

Comparing 2016 on day 80 with 2015 shows the important ice deficits are on the European and Canadian sides: Barents (even lower than last year), along with Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay. In contrast to 2015, Okhotsk is much more normal this year and almost offsets the losses elsewhere.

With AER and CPC showing the Arctic Oscillation neutral presently, and 14-day forecasts for more of the same, no one knows what to expect. We can only watch and see.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

For more on discrepancies between MASIE and SII see here.