Arctic Ice Extent reaching 10 million km2 is a milestone marking recovery of half the ice lost last spring and summer.  Each year the max extent is ~15M km2 and the mid-September min is ~5M km2.  This year in just two months the ice gained back half the ice lost in the six months prior to mid September.  The metric 1 Wadham = 1Mkm2 ice extent is in recognition of the professor who declared the Arctic would be ice-free before 2011, by which he meant less than 1M km2 extent.

The animation shows Arctic ice extents this year for the last two weeks, from day 304 (Oct. 31) to day 319 (Nov. 15). Note on the right side, the Russian shelf seas (from top:  East Siberian, Laptev, Kara) were already ice covered.  At top center, Chukchi adds 200k km2 to reach 90% of max last March. Top left, Beaufort sea fills in to 98% of its March max. Center left is Canadian Arctic Archipelago adding 267k km2 to reach 96% of its max. Lower left shows Baffin Bay and Gulf of St. Lawrence adding 400k km2 up to 67% of its max. .At the bottom center Barents Sea grows 231k km2 to reach 63% of its max.

The graph below shows Oct./Nov. daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note:

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents increase ~3.5M km2 from ~6.3M km2 up to ~9.8M km2.  The 2021 cyan MASIE line started the period ~400k km2 above average and on day 319 retained a surplus of ~380k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit, then lagged behind in the first two weeks, before ending ~200k km2 lower than MASIE (no data yet for yesterday). 2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the ice recovery.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 304 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region	2021319	Day 319 Average	2021-Ave.	2020319	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10136298	9754986	381313	9171330	964968
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1052365	1064248	-11883	1068490	-16125
(2) Chukchi_Sea	868672	614315	254357	539677	328995
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1073635	13503	1078789	8349
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897084	743	889358	8468
(5) Kara_Sea	711109	637483	73626	450888	260220
(6) Barents_Sea	286732	145188	141544	15590	271142
(7) Greenland_Sea	404108	466229	-62120	502768	-98659
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	511295	532632	-21337	446719	64575
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	824385	852284	-27899	854597	-30212
(10) Hudson_Bay	155801	248736	-92935	256849	-101047
(11) Central_Arctic	3216117	3168700	47417	3046118	169999

The overall surplus to average is 381k km2, (4%).  Note large surpluses of ice in Chukchi, Barents and Kara Seas, as well as Central Arctic. The main deficits to average are in Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay, the latter being a shallow basin that will freeze over quickly once it starts.  Note that 2021 ice extent exceeds that of 2020 by nearly a full Wadham,  most of the difference being in Chukchi, Kara, Barents and Central Arctic.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 304 (end of October) for the years 2012 through yesterday 2021.  Note the variability from year to year on the CanAm (left side) with the Beaufort Sea at the top, Canadian Archipelago center left, and Baffin Bay, lower left between Greenland and Newfoundland. More noticeable are the Russian shelf seas fluctuations on the right side.  Some years, like 2020, there is still open water, but this year those seas are frozen over, including from the top Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas down to bottom right.

The graph below shows October daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during October on average Arctic ice extents increase ~3.4M km2 from ~4.9M km2 up to ~8.3M km2.  The 2021 cyan MASIE line started the month ~500k km2 above average and on day 304 retained a surplus of ~160k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit, then lagged behind in the last two weeks, before ending ~100k km2 lower than MASIE. 2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the ice recovery.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 304 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region	2021304	Day 304 Average	2021-Ave.	2020304	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8528046	8369146	158900	6954249	1573797
(1) Beaufort_Sea	982244	946489	35755	1044967	-62723
(2) Chukchi_Sea	659384	436299	223085	369981	289403
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1086959	909416	177543	373761	713197
(4) Laptev_Sea	894716	831110	63606	283776	610940
(5) Kara_Sea	626536	444754	181781	269583	356952
(6) Barents_Sea	55711	77133	-21422	14206	41505
(7) Greenland_Sea	360759	415579	-54820	463525	-102766
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	107176	269121	-161945	232788	-125611
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	557042	788762	-231720	802238	-245196
(10) Hudson_Bay	5061	82352	-77292	73773	-68712
(11) Central_Arctic	3160959	3158164	2794	3023876	137083

The overall surplus to average is 159k km2, (2%).  Note large surpluses of ice in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas).  as well as in Laptev and Kara on the Russian coast. The main deficits to average are in Baffin Bay and CAA, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere. Note that 2021 ice extent exceeds that of 2020 by 1.6M km2, most of the difference being in East Siberian, Laptev and Kara Seas.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

With Arctic ice melting season winding down, warmists will again stoke fears about ice disappearing in the North. In fact, the pattern of Arctic ice seen in historical perspective is not alarming. People are over-thinking and over-analyzing Arctic Ice extents, and getting wrapped around the axle (or should I say axis).  So let’s keep it simple and we can all readily understand what is happening up North.

I have noticed at some other blogs people complain about my monthly Arctic ice updates focusing on extents starting in 2007. This post will show why that time period is entirely reasonable as a subject for analysis. I will use the ever popular NOAA dataset derived from satellite passive microwave sensors.  It sometimes understates the ice extents, but everyone refers to it and it is complete from 1979 to present.  Here’s what NOAA reports (in M km2):

We are frequently told that only the March maximums and the September minimums matter, since the other months are only transitional between the two.  So the graph above shows the mean ice extent, averaging the two months March and September. We have 8 more days to go in September 2021, so that number is a low-ball estimate (4.9M km2) that will likely go higher.

If I were adding this to the Ice House of Mirrors, the name would be The X-Ray Ice Mirror, because it looks into the structure of the time series.   For even more clarity and simplicity, here is the table:

NOAA NH Annual Average Ice Extents (in M km2).  Sea Ice Index v3.0 (here)

Year	Average	Change	Rate of Change
1979	11.697
1996	11.353	-0.344	-0.020 per year
2007	9.405	-1.949	-0.177 per year
2021	9.773	+0.368	+0.026 per year

The satellites involve rocket science, but this does not.  There was a small loss of ice extent over the first 17 years, then a dramatic downturn for 11 years, 9 times the rate as before. That was followed by the current 14-year plateau with a slight gain comparable to the beginning loss.  All the fuss is over that middle period, and we know what caused it.  A lot of multi-year ice was flushed out through the Fram Strait, leaving behind more easily melted younger ice. The effects from that natural occurrence bottomed out in 2007.

Kwok et al say this about the Variability of Fram Strait ice flux:

The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978–1996) is 670,000 km2, ;7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 km2 in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 km2 in 1995. . .The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 km3 ranging from a low of 1375 km3 in the 1990 flux to a high of 2791 km3 in 1994.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261010602/download

Conclusion:

Some complain it is too soon to say Arctic Ice is recovering, or that 2007 is a true change point.  The same people were quick to jump on a declining period after 1996 as evidence of a “Death Spiral.”

Footnote:

No one knows what will happen to Arctic ice.

Except maybe the polar bears.

And they are not talking.

Except, of course, to the admen from Coca-Cola

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on day 248 in 2007 (matching 14 year average), then the same day in 2019, 2020, and yesterday in 2021.  Note that Hudson Bay upper left is open water, and below that Baffin Bay next to Greenland is also ice-free.  In the center Canadian Archipelago holds a lot of ice, especially this year.  Also unusual in 2021 is ice covering Svalbard lower right all the way to Europe mainland.  Also upper right 2021 shows ice in Chukchi touching Russian coastline.

The graph above shows mid-August to mid-Sept daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.  During the 17 days from August 18 to yesterday, the black  line shows Arctic Ice extent declined on average by 1M km2 (1 Wadham).  Meanwhile the cyan line shows MASIE 2021 ice extents lost only 171k km2, and Sea Ice Index (SII) in orange lost 317k km2. Note on day 230 all three lines started at the same value.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region	2021248	Day 248 Average	2021-Ave.	2007248	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	5464375	4672631	791744	4751076	713299
(1) Beaufort_Sea	798213	522472	275741	665051	133162
(2) Chukchi_Sea	524060	202259	321800	116358	407702
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	408523	310662	97862	6329	402195
(4) Laptev_Sea	51574	143286	-91712	280600	-229026
(5) Kara_Sea	122087	30192	91896	103072	19015
(6) Barents_Sea	18	15631	-15612	10766	-10748
(7) Greenland_Sea	98270	176374	-78104	334524	-236254
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	16983	23131	-6148	31787	-14804
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	440366	288302	152064	270755	169612
(10) Hudson_Bay	39285	15338	23947	29961	9324
(11) Central_Arctic	2963852	2944150	19702	2900617	63235

The overall surplus to average is 792k km2, (+17%).  Note large surpluses of ice in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas).  Meanwhile Laptev on the Russian coast melted out early, as has Greenland Sea.  Kara and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) are holding considerable ice.  We are about 12 days away from the annual minimum mid September, but at this point it appears that extents will be much greater than the last two years.

See also Abundant August Arctic Ice with 2021 Minimum Outlook

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

The graph above shows August daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents decline ~2M km2 from ~6.8M km2 down to ~4.8M km2.  The Hockey Stick shape refers to the 2021 cyan MASIE line starting ~227k km2 below average but matching average by day 230, and in the last five days produced a surplus of 414k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit and also matched MASIE average day 230, but tracking the downward average since.  2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the summer melt.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region	2021235	Day 235 Average	2021-Ave.	2007235	2021-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	5745634	5331499	414135	5309870	435765
(1) Beaufort_Sea	872981	605537	267444	730813	142168
(2) Chukchi_Sea	539676	329819	209856	178493	361182
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	508990	445221	63769	63523	445468
(4) Laptev_Sea	61548	205077	-143529	295384	-233836
(5) Kara_Sea	136181	58898	77283	155754	-19573
(6) Barents_Sea	6047	24071	-18025	17998	-11951
(7) Greenland_Sea	84815	202922	-118108	334622	-249808
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	40877	33602	7275	50303	-9426
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	465781	354257	111524	323329	142452
(10) Hudson_Bay	64148	35761	28387	61078	3070
(11) Central_Arctic	2964500	3035379	-70879	3097316	-132816

The overall surplus to average is 414k km2, (8%).  Note large surpluses of ice in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas).  Meanwhile Laptev on the Russian coast melted out early, as has Greenland Sea.  Kara and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) are holding considerable ice.  We are about a month away from the annual minimum mid September, but at this point it appears that extents will be greater than the last two years.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

The graph above shows mid July to mid August daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents decline from ~8.3M km2 down to ~5.9M km2.  The 2021 cyan MASIE line started ~400k km2 below average but as of yesterday was slightly surplus.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with a deficit to MASIE (in cyan) of ~300M km2.  August 14 saw the two indices mid August close together, close to average and surplus to 2007.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region	2021226	Day 226 Average	2021-Ave.	2007226	2021-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	6066634	5889687	176947	5727937	338697
(1) Beaufort_Sea	915133	688804	226329	777766	137366
(2) Chukchi_Sea	572339	404505	167834	260048	312290
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	624917	556990	67927	196982	427934
(4) Laptev_Sea	52213	252434	-200221	316363	-264150
(5) Kara_Sea	173342	88626	84716	201115	-27772
(6) Barents_Sea	5256	29027	-23771	17324	-12068
(7) Greenland_Sea	118995	224977	-105982	316155	-197160
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	23528	59670	-36142	86165	-62637
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	465880	420722	45157	375241	90638
(10) Hudson_Bay	83051	74370	8681	91653	-8603
(11) Central_Arctic	3031058	3088557	-57499	3087868	-56810

The overall surplus to average is 177k km2, (3%).  Note large surpluses of ice in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas).  Meanwhile Laptev on the Russian coast melted out early, as has Greenland Sea.  Kara and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) are holding considerable ice.  We are about a month away from the annual minimum mid September, but at this point it does not appear it will be out of the ordinary.

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

The animation shows Arctic ice extents on Day 212 (end of July) for the years 2007 to 2021 (yesterday).  Evidently, there is considerable variation year over year both on the total amount and where the ice is to be found.  The images are from MASIE (Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent) platform operated by the US National Ice Center (NIC).  More on MASIE can be read at previous post NOAA Loses 1M km2 of Arctic Ice in July

Note that in all years, some regions are open water by day 212:  Sea of Okhotsk (lower left), Bering Sea (lower center). Mostly ice free are Hudson Bay (lower right) and Barents Sea (top left).  Center left along the Russian coastline runs the Northern Sea Route for summertime shipping from Kara Sea (top left) down through the Bering Strait.  As you can see, some years the ice is still plentiful along this route, and other years are almost ice free.  This year, Laptev is largely open water, while Kara (above) and Chukchi (below) still have much ice to challenge the ice breakers.

Of interest also is the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (center right, below Greenland).  Here is found the Northwest Passage by which intrepid sailors seek transit from the Atlantic (right) through to the Pacific by way of Bering Sea.  Again, some years it is open and simple, and other years closed completely.  On day 212, 2021, CAA has more ice than average, so this year could be more challenging than in other recent years.

The graph below shows July daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

On average, July Arctic ice declines from ~9.7M km2 down to 6.9M km2.  This year Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) lost ice rapidly and opened up a deficit to MASIE (in cyan) of ~700M km2.  The last three weeks saw the two indices ending the month close together, slightly below average and matching 2007.  Note that both 2019 and 2020 had much lower extents at end of July.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2007.

Region	2021212	Day 212 Average	2021-Ave.	2007212	2021-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	6621487	6903677	-282190	6344860	276627
(1) Beaufort_Sea	899718	776180	123539	760576	139143
(2) Chukchi_Sea	563418	526326	37091	382350	181068
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	652192	745174	-92982	445385	206807
(4) Laptev_Sea	97962	389632	-291669	314382	-216420
(5) Kara_Sea	230155	159737	70418	239232	-9077
(6) Barents_Sea	37818	32484	5334	23703	14115
(7) Greenland_Sea	149142	298586	-149444	324737	-175595
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	143110	136724	6387	94179	48931
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	594031	547883	46148	510063	83968
(10) Hudson_Bay	113973	151424	-37452	93655	20318
(11) Central_Arctic	3139007	3137899	1108	3154837	-15830

The overall deficit to average is 282k km2, (4%) which matches the deficit in Laptev.  Other places with less than average extents are East Siberian, Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay.  Offsetting these are surpluses in Beaufort, Chukchi, Kara and CAA.