Update Aug.23 Arctic Ice, Cyclone and Ships

Today’s MASIE ice chart shows some recovery of ice extent, mostly in BCE region (Beaufort, Chukchi, E. Siberian seas).  This happens to be the location of two ships exploring the ice extent: Northabout (Polar Ocean Challenge) and Serenity (Celebrity Cruiseliner).

20160823google1

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are August 22, 2016 from MASIE. Click to zoom in.

As the image shows, Northabout has moved close to shore due to a tongue of ice extending south, while Serenity has passed through the Bering Strait, heading towards Barrow, but with some ice ahead.  The pictured ice edges are from yesterday, but show a line of ice that could threaten the Beaufort passage.  That is especially an issue for Northabout, a small sailing boat foregoing any assistance from icebreakers.

The cyclone is winding down, but who knows what and where the ice will be.

Background

Image from The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel at Jeff Masters blog.

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole has compressed the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 672k km2 in just 4 days. 300k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 100k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  SII had been running ~200k km2 below MASIE and they are now close, with both showing an uptick yesterday.

MASIE 2016 day235

 

That is good news for the Northabout, and also for Serenity, the cruiseship scheduled to use the Northwest Passage. Of course, it will be not so good if they are caught directly in the winds and ice movements.

20160821google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is 20160820 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

 

The Big Picture of Arctic land, ocean, ice and clouds.

20160821google3

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

Celebrity Serenity

I was once told by a fellow cruise passenger not to call our ship a boat.  He said in the Navy they knew if you were in a boat it meant something awful had happened to your ship.

The Good Ship Northabout

 

 

 

 

 

Power (and $) to the People

Donald Trump was half right when speaking recently in Montana, saying that people should have the say whether to frack or not in their backyard.

“I’m in favor of fracking, but I think that voters should have a big say in it. I mean, there’s some areas, maybe, that don’t want to have fracking, and I think if the voters are voting for it that’s up to them.”

UK Prime Minister has got it all right when she announced that the wealth will be shared with residents receiving checks directly if they choose to go with the extraction. Green and anti-fossil fuel activists are scrambling to denounce her move as “bribery” while ignoring their own undemocratic posture.  They worry about losing their power to stop progress when the discourse changes from “Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) to “Please In My Back Yard” (PIMBY).

A £1 billion shale wealth fund unveiled by former chancellor George Osborne in November will set aside up to 10 per cent of the tax proceeds from fracking to benefit the communities hosting wells.

But now the Prime Minister is amending the scheme so the money can go direct to residents rather than being given to councils or community trusts to spend, as Mr Osborne planned.

It is expected that the new fund could deliver as much as £10 million to each community where wells are sited.

Speaking ahead of the launch of a consultation on the fund, Mrs May said she wanted to make sure that individuals benefit personally from economic decisions.

She indicated that the model could be applied to other Government programmes, such as the Community Infrastructure Levy charge on property development in England and Wales.

“The Government I lead will always be driven by the interests of the many – ordinary families for whom life is harder than many people in politics realise,” said Mrs May. “As I said on my first night as Prime Minister, when we take the big calls, we’ll think not of the powerful but of you. This announcement is an example of putting those principles into action.”
Source: Fracking payments: Households in line for cash under Government plans Shropshire Star

Summary

Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan don’t get enough credit for leading the free world to out-prosper the socialist block, thereby leading to the iron curtain collapsing, and eventually to economic reforms even in places like China and Cuba.

Today we are facing a growing tyranny of unelected bureaucrats at the EU and the UN whose power and resources are committed to a statist, left-wing agenda, using climate hysteria as justification.

Theresa May looks to be up for the fight. But will the next US President be a willing partner against entrenched special interests, activists and rent-seekers, or will it be someone beholden to them and to the status quo?

 

Update Aug.22: Arctic Ice, Cyclone and Ships

Today’s MASIE ice chart shows further compression and also shifting locations of sea ice in the BCE region (Beaufort, Chukchi, E. Siberian seas).  This happens to be the location of two ships exploring the ice extent: Northabout (Polar Ocean Challenge) and Serenity (Celebrity Cruiseliner).

20160822google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are for August 21, 2016 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

As the image shows, Northabout is contending with a tongue of ice extending south toward the shoreline, while Serenity in on her way through the Bering Strait.  The pictured ice edges are from yesterday, but show a line of ice that could threaten the Beaufort passage.  That is especially an issue for Northabout, a small sailing boat foregoing any assistance from icebreakers.

The cyclone is expected to weaken later this week, but who knows what and where the ice will be.

Background from August 21

Image from The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel at Jeff Masters blog.

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole is starting to compress the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 672k km2 in just the last 4 days. 300k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 100k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  SII had been running ~200k km2 below MASIE and they are now a match.

MASIE 2016 day233

That is good news for the Northabout, and also for Serenity, the cruiseship scheduled to use the Northwest Passage. Of course, it will be not so good if they are caught directly in the winds and ice movements.

20160821google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is 20160820 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

 

The Big Picture of Arctic land, ocean, ice and clouds.

20160821google3

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

 

 

 

Adapting Works! Mitigating Fails.

adapt2

Two schools of thought regarding future climates:
Adaptation: As changes occur, adapt our methods and practices to survive and prosper in new conditions.
Mitigation: Cut down on use of fossil fuels to mitigate or prevent future global warming.

The Paris Agreement and various cap-and-trade schemes intend to Mitigate future warming. Lots of gloom and doom is projected (forecast) by activists claiming mitigation is the only way. But the facts of our experience say otherwise.

What has been human experience with Adapting to climate change?

Feeding ourselves is the most fundamental social need, so we should look at the history of Agriculture and climate change. Here is a data-rich study:
Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839–2009, by Alan L. Olmstead and Paul W. Rhodes Accessed at PNAS (here).

Numerous researchers have speculated about how farmers might change cultivars, cropping patterns, and farming methods to mitigate some of the costs of abrupt climatic changes (8). Researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) anticipate that North American wheat farmers may extend the margin of wheat production roughly 1,000 km north into northern Canada and Alaska, whereas heat and drought will make cultivation untenable in many areas of the southern Great Plains (9). To provide perspective on these and other predictions, this paper asks how farmers responded to past climatic challenges.

The spread of wheat cultivation across North America required that farmers repeatedly adapt to unfamiliar and hostile climatic conditions. The variations in climatic conditions that settlers encountered rivaled the magnitude of the predicted changes at given locations over the next century. We quantify the extent of the geographic variations and decipher how wheat growers learned to produce in new environments. Because of the paucity of Mexican data before 1929, most of our analysis of “North America” refers to Canada and the United States. Inclusion of Mexico in the later part of the 20th century highlights the role of the Green Revolution in pushing production into hotter and drier zones. (my bolds)

Because of climate change, some areas presumably will decrease or cease wheat production, whereas other areas, particularly in northern Canada and Alaska, are expected to enter production. Although the anticipated movement in the wheat frontier is substantial, it is unlikely to be as great as the past geographic shifts in production. The difficulties in extending the transportation infrastructure to facilitate future shifts also appear less imposing than those overcome to open the Plains and Prairies. The challenging problems deal with adapting growing practices and creating improved cultivars. (my bold)

wheatline2

Shift in the North American spring–winter wheat frontier, 1869–1929.

The last two columns of the table, which show the differences between the Columbus baseline and the other four locations, illustrate the wide array of climatic conditions to which wheat has been adapted in North America during the past 170 y. Even with the predicted annual mean temperature by 2100, farmers near Edmonton, AB, and Dickerson, ND, will confront substantially colder conditions than eastern wheat growers faced circa 1839. Even with the anticipated increase in precipitation, the northern farmers will have to make do with about half the precipitation that the earlier generation of eastern farmers received. The predicted changes in Dodge City, KS, and Ciudad Obregón, Sonora, Mexico, suggest both hotter and drier conditions than were common at the center of North American production in 1839 (again, a climate akin to that in Columbus, OH, in the baseline period). Note, however, that the difference in temperature between Columbus and Ciudad Obregón was roughly six times the increase predicted in the latter city by 2100. Wheat production is sensitive to seasonal fluctuations in weather conditions, which probably will become more variable in the future and which are not captured by annual mean data (29). Nevertheless, the historical record of adapting wheat cultivation to areas with widely varying climates is impressive. (my bold)

For the most part, the settlement process required adapting cultivation to colder and more arid regions, not to hotter climates as predicted in the future. Farming with less water is more of a problem if the temperature also is hotter. However, biological innovations also were crucial to the expansion of production in hot-arid areas such as Texas, Oklahoma, central California, and northern Mexico. The currently predicted changes during the next century will, in a sense, reverse the predominant historical path of the past two centuries by creating a warmer and wetter environment in the Plains and Prairies that will partially approach the conditions that existed in the Middle Atlantic region when it constituted the North American wheat belt. (my bold)

The historical record offers insight into the capability of agriculture to adapt to climatic challenges. Using a new county-level dataset on wheat production and climate norms, we show that during the 19th and 20th centuries North American grain farmers pushed wheat production into environments once considered too arid, too variable, and too harsh to cultivate. As summary measures, the median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annual temperature norm was 3.7 °C lower. This shift, which occurred mostly before 1929, required new biological technologies. The Green Revolution associated with the pioneering work of Norman Borlaug represented an important advance in this longer process of biological innovation. However, well before the Green Revolution, generations of North American farmers overcame significant climatic challenges. (my bold)

How successful has mitigation been?

A recent report of California’s cap-and-trade concluded:

The problem is that the permits are selling at a slower and slower rate. The surplus of allowances is becoming so large in systems run by Europe, California and Quebec — which together account for more than 90 percent of global trading — that by 2022 it could cover the emissions spewing from every car on Earth for a full year, according to estimates by the London environmental group Sandbag Climate Campaign CIC and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

In California’s market, all 23 million allowances sold in an auction in 2014. In May 2016, 7.3 million permits found buyers, only 11 percent of what was put up for sale.

ReGGI, the carbon market joined by Northeastern US states is also ineffective but has the potential to threaten affordable electricity there. See my post: Cap and Trade Hype

Even more telling is the recent revolt by Democrat politicians against the way California distributes proceeds from auctions of carbon credits. From the LA Times: A big question complicating the climate debate: Where’s the money for poor people?

Unless more money gets directed to poor communities, lawmakers whose votes may be needed to continue the climate change efforts say they’re wary. Assemblyman Jim Cooper (D-Elk Grove), a leader in the business-aligned bloc of his party, said he hasn’t made up his mind, in part, because he’s outraged that people living in a handful of wealthy Bay Area and West Los Angeles communities have received by far the largest shares of state rebates to purchase electric cars.

“It’s welfare for the rich,” Cooper said. “It’s dead wrong in my book. It should be wrong in anybody’s book.”

Inadvertently, they are scraping the lipstick off the Mitigation Pig. They know (but don’t say out loud) this scheme does little to lower fossil fuels, and has even less impact on future climates. But it does create a pot of money, and they want the poor to have their share. If you are going to redistribute wealth, at least transfer it from the rich to the poor, as Robin Hood did. Mitigation is failing in every imaginable way.

Conclusion

Farmers have successfully grown and harvested crops in places formerly deemed too cold or too arid, and most of the new fields were in the North. Remarkably, today’s average climate where wheat is produced is both drier and colder:
“The median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annual temperature norm was 3.7 °C lower.”

Agriculture has demonstrated our massive capacity to adapt to changing conditions, whether it becomes warmer or cooler, wetter or drier.

The rational climate change policy has been proven successful: Don’t Fight It, Adapt.

Footnote:

Bumper crops expected
Grain companies predict near-record western harvest
Source: The Western Producer

The 2016 harvest is shaping up to be a whopper, according to Western Canada’s largest elevator companies.

Arctic Cyclone Clears the Ice

 

Image from The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016: After Four Years, a Summer Sequel at Jeff Masters blog.

The Arctic Cyclone operating near the north pole is starting to compress the ice extents, The graph below shows the results: Overall ice extent which had recently stabilized lost 672k km2 in just the last 4 days. 300k km2 was lost in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas) and another 100k km2 in CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  SII had been running ~200k km2 below MASIE and they are now a match.

MASIE 2016 day233

That is good news for the Northabout, and also for Serenity, the cruiseship scheduled to use the Northwest Passage. Of course, it will be not so good if they are caught directly in the winds and ice movements.

20160821google2

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is 20160820 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

 

The Big Picture of Arctic land, ocean, ice and clouds.

20160821google3

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

 

 

 

On the Hubris of Climatism

 

Canadian Michael Hart speaks out on climatism in his new book, Hubris: The Troubling Science, Economics, and Politics of Climate Change (link to interview with Hart at Tallbloke’s Talkshop)

The wide-ranging interview contains many insights, including this one that IMO gets at a deep, underlying motive:

Alarm over a changing climate leading to malign results is in many ways the product of the hunger for stability and direction in a post-Christian world. Humans have a deep, innate need for a transcendent authority. Having rejected the precepts of Christianity, people in the advanced economies of the West are turning to other forms of authority. Putting aside those who cynically exploit the issue for their own gain – from scientists and politicians to UN leaders and green businesses – most activists are deeply committed to a secular, statist, anti-human, earth-centric set of beliefs which drives their claims of a planet in imminent danger from human activity.

To them, a planet with fewer people is the ultimate goal, achievable only through centralized direction and control. As philosopher of science Jeffrey Foss points out, “Environmental science conceives and expresses humankind’s relationship to nature in a manner that is – as a matter of observable fact – religious.” It “prophesies an environmental apocalypse. It tells us that the reason we confront apocalypse is our own environmental sinfulness. Our sin is one of impurity. We have fouled a pure, ‘pristine’ nature with our dirty household and industrial wastes. The apocalypse will take the form of an environmental backlash, a payback for our sins. … environmental scientists tell people what they must do to be blameless before nature.”

Hart says that unfortunately society has gone a long way down the wrong road, but the outcome can be changed.

I remain cautiously optimistic. Popular support for climate change action peaked a few years ago. In Europe, which has gone furthest in implementing climate change policies, politicians are beginning to look for ways to moderate earlier initiatives. In North America, rhetoric has far outstripped actions while the Obama administration has relied on stealth to implement its climate change agenda. At the same time, climate change has added to the momentum of the broader secularization of society and the pursuit of anti-human policies and programs. We are, sadly, farther down that road than we have ever been before.

Again, it will take a determined effort by people of faith and conscience to convince our political leaders that they have been gulled by a political movement exploiting fear of climate change to push a utopian, humanist agenda that most people would find abhorrent. As it now stands, politicians are throwing money that they do not have at a problem that does not exist in order to finance solutions that make no difference. The time has come to call a halt to this nonsense and focus on real issues that pose real dangers. In a world beset by war, terrorism, and continuing third-world poverty, there are far more important things on which political leaders need to focus.

Read the first chapter here:

https://www.academia.edu/29923495/_Hubris_The_Troubling_Science_Economics_and_Politics_of_Climate_Change_by_Michael_Hart_Chapter_One_here_interview_by_Margaret_Wente_of_Globe_and_Mail_my_comment

From the Preface:

The world will be a better place

  • when governments agree to tame this monster and refocus their energies on issues within their competence;
  • when religious leaders and other elites accept that they have fallen prey to a movement whose motives are much darker and more damaging than they realize;
  • and when the media adopt a more balanced approach and provide the public with the critical assessment that is often missing from their reporting.

It is time for all three to accept that the UN is pursuing a path that can only result in a less prosperous and more divided world.

Northabout Nears E. Siberian Sea

 

20160818google2rev

Update August 19 2016

Today’s tracking shows Northabout is approaching the strait leaving Laptev and entering East Siberian Sea.  It appears to be open water all the way to Beaufort Sea.

20160818google5

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice extent is for August 18, 2016 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

Update August 15, 2016

It appears that Northabout, the Polar Ocean Challenge sailboat, is positioning for an end run around the Laptev wall.  The ship location is current, the ice edges are yesterday’s chart from MASIE. (Click on the image to zoom in)

20160814GoogleRev

Update 18:00 EST August 15, 2016

It looks like Northabout is sailing free in Laptev.

20160815googlelater

 

Update August 14, 2016

It appears that Northabout is sheltering in a cove, before seeking a way around the Laptev wall. Below the Google Earth image of ice edges from NIC shows how the strait has opened up along with navigable shore lines.

Aug13googleRev

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are provided by MASIE for August 13, 2016.

The Big Picture from August 11, 2016.

masie_August 11rev

The Polar Ocean Challenge involves the sailing ship Northabout circumnavigating the North Pole counterclockwise starting from Bristol UK. The chart above from MASIE shows the two choke points in the itinerary: The Laptev Wall of ice at the beginning and the Nunavut Gauntlet of ice at the end. The image shows If Northabout can get past Laptev, it is relatively clear sailing all the way to Beaufort where Nunavut awaits.

20160809en

The above chart from AARI shows how Northabout has passed through the strait from Kara into Laptev and is in a holding pattern up against the wall.  Caleb has some great photos (here) of the views from the deck, along with some comments respecting the explorers despite their being misled by global warming theorists.

20160809enBaffin

Above is the latest chart from AARI showing the present ice situation at the other end of the trip, the Nunavut Gauntlet.  The white part is without data since the Russians are focused on their side of the ocean, but it does show heavy ice in Beaufort Sea on the right,  Within Nunavut, Parry Channel is well blocked, but with some water around the edges.  If and when Northabout gets here, no one knows what they will face.  They are counting on the passage opening this year, unlike previous years.

An image of the ice and snow extents from NOAA by way of National Ice Center (NIC)

A closeup of Nunavut from that chart shows they have a chance by using the southern route, skipping all but the eastern end of Parry Channel, provided the ice is better not worse than now when they approach.

cursnow_alaskaNOAAnunavut

Footnote:

Another view of the Arctic is available from NIC using Google Earth.  The daily shapefile can be downloaded, and it then opens in Google Earth, which allows you to browse and zoom in on regions of interest.  Here is an image from this source:

20160812google

Note: Imagery date is Google Earth capture of land masses. Ice edges are 20160812 from NIC.

 

“Gotcha” Graph from GISS

Lots of buzz over Brian Cox using the latest GISS land and ocean graph to put down Malcolm Roberts in a TV debate in Australia. Likely we will be seeing the image everywhere and alarmists crowing about “deniers” dismissed once and for all. For the record here is the graph showing no pause whatsoever:

This is accomplished by lowering the 1998 El Nino spike relative to 2015 El Nino. To see what is going on, here is a helpful chart from Dr. Ole Humlum at Climate4you

It shows that indeed, GISS is showing 1998 peak lower than several years since, especially 2002, 2010 and 2016. In contrast, the satellite record is dominated by 1998, and may still be in that position once La Nina takes hold later this year. The differences arise because satellites measure air temperature in the lower troposphere, while GISS combines records from land stations with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to fabricate a global average anomaly, including adjusting, gridding and infilling to make the estimate of Global Mean Temperatures and compare to a 30-year average.

An insight into the adjustments is displayed below.

As we have seen before, the past is cooled, and the present warmed to ensure evidence of global warming. Presently it is claimed that July 2016 is the hottest month ever. But stay tuned for future adjustments necessary to keep the warming going.

Dr. Humlum demonstrates that GISS is an unstable temperature record.

Dr. Humlum:

Based on the above it is not possible to conclude which of the above five databases represents the best estimate on global temperature variations. The answer to this question remains elusive. All five databases are the result of much painstaking work, and they all represent admirable attempts towards establishing an estimate of recent global temperature changes. At the same time it should however be noted, that a temperature record which keeps on changing the past hardly can qualify as being correct. With this in mind, it is interesting that none of the global temperature records shown above are characterised by high temporal stability. Presumably this illustrates how difficult it is to calculate a meaningful global average temperature. A re-read of Essex et al. 2006 might be worthwhile. In addition to this, surface air temperature remains a poor indicator of global climate heat changes, as air has relatively little mass associated with it. Ocean heat changes are the dominant factor for global heat changes. (my bold)

Too much trickery going on. I prefer to see actual temperatures, and this graph presents clearly the GISS record without the distortions:

giss-annual-temps4

Or, if you prefer Celsius degrees (range represents human sensory experience of daily and seasonal temperature variability)

giss-annual-tempsincrev

Conclusion 

Brian Cox defended the GISS graph by saying it was from NASA who put men on the moon.  He forgot to mention that several of those men and many scientists who put them there find NASA increasingly unscientific and untrustworthy on climate matters.

It could also be said about the recent GISS graph:  You show us a graph where the past history is different today than GISS reported it a year ago, and different again from 5 and 10 years ago.  Why should we believe this one any more than the other ones?  And why does GISS contradict temperatures recorded directly by NASA satellites?

He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.
George Orwell 1984

Footnote

Same point as Orwell, but with a dash of humour:

A soviet university professor addresses his students: “There’s good news and bad news about this year’s History final exam.  The good news is all the questions are exactly the same as last year’s exam.  The bad news: Many of the answers have changed.”

Mediocre Arctic Ice August 15

 

20160815google3

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are dated August 15, 2016 from MASIE. Click on image to zoom in.

In the chart below MASIE shows 2016 August Arctic ice extent drew near to average and close to 2015, then dropped lower before leveling off a bit yesterday.  Presently mid-August is about 400k less than average and 2015.  With SII back on line, it was reporting similar extents during June (as it has in the past).  This month it is starting to underestimate again, ~200k km2 lower. (SII and MASIE comparison is here.)

MASIE 2016 day228

 

Looking into the details, some marginal seas are melting earlier than last year, while the central, enduring ice pack is relatively typical for this time of year.

At the present pace of declining ice extents, 2016 is running 3 days ahead of 2015 and 6 days in advance of the ten-year average.

Comparing the Arctic ice extents with their maximums shows the melting is occurring mostly in the marginal seas:   Down the most are Beaufort, E. Siberian and Kara seas, with Laptev higher.  Chukchi and Central Arctic are also slightly higher.

Region 2016228 Day 228 Average 2016-Ave.
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 5638938 6077428 -438491
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 460422 732896 -272475
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 460556 451013 9543
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 425918 614576 -188658
 (4) Laptev_Sea 436021 258060 177960
 (5) Kara_Sea 34418 113901 -79483
 (6) Barents_Sea 0 28263 -28263
 (7) Greenland_Sea 210175 250577 -40402
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 43329 50525 -7196
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 394745 402828 -8083
 (10) Hudson_Bay 50896 72085 -21188
 (11) Central_Arctic 3121317 3101598 19719
 (12) Bering_Sea 0 23 -23
 (13) Baltic_Sea 0 2 -2
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 0 29 -29

Presently Arctic Ice extent is down from its March maximum by 62.6%.  The bulk of ice losses are coming from Okhotsk, Barents and Bering Seas (100% melted), along with Kara Sea, Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay-St. Lawrence (96+% melted).  All of them are marginal seas that will go down close to zero by September.

For more context on Arctic ice extent see Arctic Ice Watch July 31.  For those who wish to browse Arctic ice in Google Earth, the procedure is simple.  Go to MASIE homepage and download the kmz file.  Clicking on the file should open it in Google Earth (presuming it is on your computer.) Then you can browse, zoom in and out, and take images.

 

 

 

 

Northabout On the Verge

Update August 15, 2016

It appears that Northabout, the Polar Ocean Challenge sailboat, is positioning for an end run around the Laptev wall.  The ship location is current, the ice edges are yesterday’s chart from MASIE. (Click on the image to zoom in)

20160814GoogleRev

Update 18:00 EST August 15, 2016

It looks like Northabout is sailing free in Laptev.

20160815googlelater

 

Update August 14, 2016

It appears that Northabout is sheltering in a cove, before seeking a way around the Laptev wall. Below the Google Earth image of ice edges from NIC shows how the strait has opened up along with navigable shore lines.

Aug13googleRev

Imagery date refers to Google Earth capture of land forms. Ice edges are provided by MASIE for August 13, 2016.

The Big Picture from August 11, 2016.

masie_August 11rev

The Polar Ocean Challenge involves the sailing ship Northabout circumnavigating the North Pole counterclockwise starting from Bristol UK. The chart above from MASIE shows the two choke points in the itinerary: The Laptev Wall of ice at the beginning and the Nunavut Gauntlet of ice at the end. The image shows If Northabout can get past Laptev, it is relatively clear sailing all the way to Beaufort where Nunavut awaits.

20160809en

The above chart from AARI shows how Northabout has passed through the strait from Kara into Laptev and is in a holding pattern up against the wall.  Caleb has some great photos (here) of the views from the deck, along with some comments respecting the explorers despite their being misled by global warming theorists.

20160809enBaffin

Above is the latest chart from AARI showing the present ice situation at the other end of the trip, the Nunavut Gauntlet.  The white part is without data since the Russians are focused on their side of the ocean, but it does show heavy ice in Beaufort Sea on the right,  Within Nunavut, Parry Channel is well blocked, but with some water around the edges.  If and when Northabout gets here, no one knows what they will face.  They are counting on the passage opening this year, unlike previous years.

An image of the ice and snow extents from NOAA by way of National Ice Center (NIC)

A closeup of Nunavut from that chart shows they have a chance by using the southern route, skipping all but the eastern end of Parry Channel, provided the ice is better not worse than now when they approach.

cursnow_alaskaNOAAnunavut

Footnote:

Another view of the Arctic is available from NIC using Google Earth.  The daily shapefile can be downloaded, and it then opens in Google Earth, which allows you to browse and zoom in on regions of interest.  Here is an image from this source:

20160812google

Note: Imagery date is Google Earth capture of land masses. Ice edges are 20160812 from NIC.