The Economic and Health Effects of Mass Covid-19 Vaccination

John Gibson provides this timely analysis at Brownstone Institute: The Economic and Health Effects of Mass Covid-19 Vaccination.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

On or about the 1st of December 2021, the world will pass a notable milestone: more doses of Covid-19 vaccines will have been administered than there are people in the world. The two ‘clocks’ that let me predict this date are here and here. Of course, some people have had three (or more) doses, and others none but already a majority of the world’s population have been jabbed at least once with a Covid-19 vaccine.

Given this massive rollout, we should start to see some effects in the aggregate data. Such data provides observational evidence—correlations rather than causal relationships. Yet these correlations can be informative, especially as pivotal randomized control trials for Covid-19 vaccines, that might be expected to reveal causal effects, were not designed to answer the questions many people have about the vaccines.

It was therefore disingenuous, dishonest even, for health bureaucrats Walensky, Walke, and Fauci to write a “Viewpoint” in JAMA in February 2021 that claimed:

“…Clinical trials have shown that the vaccines authorized for use in the US are highly effective against COVID-19 infection, severe illness, and death.”

Quite rightly, Dr Peter Doshi, a BMJ editor and expert on critiquing clinical trials, wrote a comment showing the claim is false.

Of course this claim, along with many others purportedly based on the trials, is untrue. Given that the clinical trials have been so prone to misinterpretation, and that they were unblinded early, meaning that efficacy beyond six months cannot be established from the trial data, we have to look elsewhere for evidence.

Irrespective of reasons for this prior invisibility, economists are now starting to emerge from their cocoons and their analyses of the aggregate data are becoming available. In terms of the global vaccine rollout, it seems that economic conditions matter more than health conditions. Across 112 countries, the rollout was faster for richer not sicker countries. Amongst OECD countries, which have timely and reliable mortality data and are highly vaccinated, rollout was faster for countries where the negative economic shock in 2020 had been bigger, but not where the health shock (excess mortality) had been bigger.

Evidence is also emerging on aggregate effects (and non-effects) from mass vaccination. For 68 countries with full data available, a simple scatter plot shows there was no relationship between the percentage of the population fully vaccinated (by early September, 2021) and new Covid-19 cases in the last 7 days. A concern with such cross-sectional studies is that omitted factors drive the correlations.

A standard economics approach to these issues is to use panel data (repeated observations on the same countries). With such data we can remove the effect of (time-invariant) unobserved characteristics of countries and (spatially-invariant) unobserved features of time periods to mitigate the impact of omitted factors in driving correlations.

Such panel data for 32 highly vaccinated OECD countries (over 1.3 billion doses to date) that also have high frequency all-cause mortality data indicate that aggregate effects of mass vaccination are showing up in the political-economy sphere but not in health terms. The chart below shows relationships between the fully-vaccinated rate and two health outcomes (deaths from Covid-19 and from all-causes), three economic outcomes (personal mobility to various types of places tracked by Google), and one policy outcome (stringency of lockdown rules).

The outcomes are the change from the same month of 2020, when vaccines were unavailable, versus 2021, when mass vaccination was underway (for each month to September). The units for the chart are standard deviations, to allow comparisons across outcomes in various native units (an index for lockdowns, percentage changes for mobility, rates for deaths).

A standard deviation higher fully vaccinated rate is associated with lockdown stringency of one-half a standard deviation lower. This reflects politicians of all stripes tying lockdown to vaccination rates. For example, in September 2021 the New Zealand Prime Minister said “We’re in lockdown because we do not have enough New Zealanders currently vaccinated…” Earlier in the year, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “The way to ensure this [lockdown easing] happens is to get that jab when your turn comes, so let’s get the jab done.”

The rebound in economic activity, as measured by change in consumer mobility compared to the same month of 2020 (so accounting for seasonal factors) is more than one-half a standard deviation higher per standard deviation of the fully vaccinated rate, for retail and recreational locations (and almost as large for transit stations). Conversely, time spent in residential places is about one-half a standard deviation lower, compared to the same month of 2020, in months or countries where the fully vaccinated rate is one standard deviation higher.

Is this rise in being out-and-about due to the vaccines per se, perhaps by making people feel safer, or is it just the response to relaxed lockdown controls? It turns out that it is just the relaxation in lockdown stringency that drives the rise in consumer mobility. Once this is accounted for, there is no independent effect of the vaccination rate on the Google Mobility indicators.

So we can think of the jabs as being a jab in the arm of politicians to relax their iron grip on the freedom of movement for people.

While the correlations for mobility (as an economic activity proxy) and lockdown stringency are large and precisely estimated, the corresponding effects on aggregate health indicators are not apparent. Specifically, for these countries through September 2021, vaccination rates have no relationship with changes in new Covid-19 deaths per million, nor with changes in all-cause mortality. After 1.3 billion doses for these countries (and seven billion doses worldwide), one would expect to see some reduction in deaths. Yet such an effect does not show up in these data.

From these results it seems that mass vaccination is some sort of get-out-of-jail card, as a way to get out of ruinously expensive lockdowns and allow some rebound in economic activity. Yet it was politicians and health bureaucrats who put us in jail in the first place. At any time they could undo what they imposed, with or without mass vaccination. As lockdowns failed to control the virus, and did not reduce excess mortality, politicians could have undone these costly and ineffective interventions without needing to rely on mass vaccination.

Click to access 2111-johngibson.pdf




  1. mickmar21 · November 17, 2021

    No-one knows the long term effects of the vaccine yet what is known is that it is ineffective after a few months.

    already there are a few reports that not only is the vaccine ineffective but it also contributes to mutations in the virus which is concerning.

    When the clinical trials are complete I will form a more complete opinion on this vaccine.


    • Ron Clutz · November 17, 2021

      Mick, one of things I learned from this article is that clinical trials during a pandemic do not prove the public health outcomes. That will only be known in retrospect. What is clear at this point is that vaccine rollouts main benefit was to relax the lockdowns. Health outcomes are ambiguous.


      • mickmar21 · November 18, 2021

        You put that far better than I would have.


  2. jchr12 · November 18, 2021

    Move into late 2021 and we see lockdowns beginning to reappear in two forms: 1, for the unvaccinated (eg Austria) & 2, for all, despite fully vaccinated populations (eg Gibraltar). Thus the conclusion, “Politicians could have undone these costly and ineffective interventions without needing to rely on mass vaccination,” reveals that neither the claims of vaccine efficacy, nor those implementing the draconian, useless, & calamitous ‘remedies’ have any grasp on the realities of the science involved. Neither did they [seem to] comprehend the economic damage that even, ’14 days to flatten the curve’ could clearly have been predicted. We’re in the hands of despots.


  3. Pingback: The Economic and Health Effects of Mass Covid-19 Vaccination – Climate-

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