Previous posts showed 2020 Arctic Ice breaking the 15M km2 ceiling, while wondering whether the ice will have staying power.  “Yes” is the answer, at least through the first third of March.

By end of February, ice extent this year was well above the 13- year average, then dipped lower before growing again surplus to average and other recent years.  This is important since March monthly average is considered the ice extent maximum for the year. Note also the SII is matching and currently exceeding the MASIE estimates.

The chart below shows the distribution of ice across the various regions comprising the Arctic zone.

Region	2020071	Day 071 Average	2020-Ave.	2018071	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	15015552	15016528	-976	14608334	407218
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070115	540	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965984	22	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087135	3	1087137	0
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897645	200	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	930542	923821	6721	933916	-3374
(6) Barents_Sea	658816	625730	33086	679863	-21047
(7) Greenland_Sea	617321	624974	-7654	526061	91259
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1516513	1597523	-81010	1488350	28163
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	852766	1517	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1259848	1055	1260838	66
(11) Central_Arctic	3248013	3215629	32384	3172178	75835
(12) Bering_Sea	818900	738395	80505	401469	417431
(13) Baltic_Sea	14681	87191	-72510	130767	-116086
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1062110	1048073	14037	1120721	-58611

As of yesterday, Day 2020071 matches the NH 13-year average and also most regions.  Two deficits to average are in Baffin Bay and Baltic Sea, offset by surpluses in Bering and Okhotsk, as well as Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Note current Bering Sea ice is twice the extent in 2018.

 

Update on Large Arctic Ice Extents as of March 5, 2020

After crashing through the 15M km2 ceiling, both MASIE and SII show the extents holding over that amount.

In addition to surpluses in Bering and Okhotsk Seas in the Pacific, Barents Sea is now growing significant ice on the European side. At 823k km2, Bering is 145% of 2019 maximum, while Barents is 94% of 2019 max.

Background from Previous Posts

As noted in a previous February post, March marks the moment of truth regarding the Arctic maximum extent. Ten days later 2020 met the challenge.

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average in the last 13 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M before descending. Six of the last 13 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2014 and 2016 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short.

As of yesterday, 2020 cleared 15M km2 as recorded both by MASIE and SII.

During February MASIE and SII both show ice extent hovering around the 13 year average, matching it exactly on day 52 at 14.85M km2. Then the ice cover shrank before growing strongly the last five days to overtake the 13 year average on day 61 at 15.05M km2.

Region	2020060	Day 060 Average	2020-Ave.	2018060	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14999007	14987840	11167	14535979	463028
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070222	433	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	963804	2168	965971	1
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087039	98	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897824	21	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	919052	928455	-9403	921526	-2474
(6) Barents_Sea	735450	634497	100953	512601	222848
(7) Greenland_Sea	596926	621572	-24646	518130	78796
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1464407	1544205	-79798	1783076	-318669
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853074	1209	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260887	1260890	-2	1260838	49
(11) Central_Arctic	3247904	3211522	36382	3087802	160103
(12) Bering_Sea	746111	674028	72083	340789	405322
(13) Baltic_Sea	30173	103770	-73598	134750	-104577
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1110709	1097753	12956	1079823	30886

As reported previously, Pacific sea ice is a big part of the story this year.  Out of the last 13 years, on day 52 only two years had Okhotsk ice extent higher than 2020, and only four years had higher Bering ice. Those surpluses offset a small deficit in Greenland Sea ice. And on day 61, the last push came from Bering and Okhotsk.

Typically, Arctic ice extent loses 67 to 70% of the March maximum by mid September, before recovering the ice in building toward the next March.

What will the ice do this year?  Where will 2020 rank in the annual Arctic Ice High Jump competition?

 

As noted in a previous post ten days ago, March marks the moment of truth regarding the Arctic maximum extent. Now ten days later 2020 met the challenge.

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average in the last 13 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M before descending. Six of the last 13 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2014 and 2016 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short.

As of yesterday, 2020 cleared 15M km2 as recorded both by MASIE and SII.

During February MASIE and SII both show ice extent hovering around the 13 year average, matching it exactly on day 52 at 14.85M km2. Then the ice cover shrank before growing strongly the last five days to overtake the 13 year average on day 61 at 15.05M km2.

Region	2020060	Day 060 Average	2020-Ave.	2018060	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14999007	14987840	11167	14535979	463028
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070222	433	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	963804	2168	965971	1
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087039	98	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897824	21	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	919052	928455	-9403	921526	-2474
(6) Barents_Sea	735450	634497	100953	512601	222848
(7) Greenland_Sea	596926	621572	-24646	518130	78796
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1464407	1544205	-79798	1783076	-318669
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853074	1209	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260887	1260890	-2	1260838	49
(11) Central_Arctic	3247904	3211522	36382	3087802	160103
(12) Bering_Sea	746111	674028	72083	340789	405322
(13) Baltic_Sea	30173	103770	-73598	134750	-104577
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1110709	1097753	12956	1079823	30886

As reported previously, Pacific sea ice is a big part of the story this year.  Out of the last 13 years, on day 52 only two years had Okhotsk ice extent higher than 2020, and only four years had higher Bering ice. Those surpluses offset a small deficit in Greenland Sea ice. And on day 61, the last push came from Bering and Okhotsk.

Typically, Arctic ice extent loses 67 to 70% of the March maximum by mid September, before recovering the ice in building toward the next March.

What will the ice do this year?  Where will 2020 rank in the annual Arctic Ice High Jump competition?

 

For ice extent in the Arctic, the bar is set at 15M km2. The average in the last 13 years occurs on day 62 at 15.04M before descending. Six of the last 13 years were able to clear 15M, but recently only 2014 and 2016 ice extents cleared the bar at 15M km2; the others came up short.

During February MASIE and SII both show ice extent hovering around the 13 year average, matching it exactly on day 52 at 14.85M km2. Other recent years were lower until 2019 caught up, before dropping off in the final week of the month.  We shall see what this year does with only 10 to 14 days left before the March maximum is recorded.

Region	2020052	Day 052 Average	2020-Ave.	2018052	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14875470	14857903	17567	14312247	563223
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070222	433	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	964814	1158	955104	10868
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087039	98	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897824	21	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	906378	917433	-11055	917969	-11591
(6) Barents_Sea	648148	613817	34332	552077	96071
(7) Greenland_Sea	538698	613963	-75264	428606	110092
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1502218	1495888	6330	1757430	-255211
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853074	1209	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1259931	1260881	-950	1260838	-907
(11) Central_Arctic	3246709	3213870	32839	3150241	96468
(12) Bering_Sea	731776	685013	46763	194708	537067
(13) Baltic_Sea	25524	104858	-79334	94201	-68677
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	1117881	1022253	95628	1060733	57148

As reported previously, Pacific sea ice is a big part of the story this year.  Out of the last 13 years, on day 52 only two years had Okhotsk ice extent higher than 2020, and only four years had higher Bering ice. Those surpluses offset a small deficit in Greenland Sea ice.

Typically, Arctic ice extent loses 67 to 70% of the March maximum by mid September, before recovering the ice in building toward the next March.

What will the ice do this year?  Where will 2020 rank in the annual Arctic Ice High Jump competition?

 

A previous post noted the Pacific ice see saw had returned, with Bering Sea slow to recover.  The image above shows that now both Pacific seas are recovering ice strongly in the second half of January 2020. As supported by the table later, the pace of refreezing was slow to begin but 2020 extents are now quite ordinary and tracking the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive). Okhotsk Sea on the left has steadily grown 250k km2 ice extent to be currently at 68% of last March maximum.  Bering on the right added 170k km2 and now exceeds last March max by 3%.

On the Atlantic side there has also been some ice growth on the margins.  Notably Barents Sea on the right has added 160k km2 to exceed its average by 40%, and is now 95% of last March max.  Also visible on the upper left is ice forming in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Baffin Bay ice slowly extending south. The graph below shows the ice extent growing during January compared to some other years and the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 13 year average increases about 1.2M km2 during January, up to 14.4M km2. MASIE 2020 stated with a slower icing rate, dropping 300k km2 lower than average before catching up to reaching the average on January 19 and tracking closely since.  Other years were lower at this point, while MASIE and SII 2020 are showing nearly the same extents.

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Deficits in Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay are offset by a 230k km2 surplus of Barents Sea ice.  At this point the surplus in Okhotsk exceeds the Bering deficit. 

Region	2020030	Day 030 Average	2020-Ave.	2018030	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14333538	14344185	-10647	13819038	514500
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070223	432	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	965999	-27	965971	1
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897842	3	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	934901	914385	20515	880656	54245
(6) Barents_Sea	783310	553930	229380	471973	311337
(7) Greenland_Sea	482444	588685	-106241	506539	-24094
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1260581	1347235	-86653	1384973	-124392
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853059	1223	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260192	1260815	-623	1260838	-646
(11) Central_Arctic	3212864	3207580	5284	3176620	36244
(12) Bering_Sea	584617	645329	-60712	402199	182419
(13) Baltic_Sea	12939	80631	-67693	37943	-25004
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	894008	807371	86637	763761	130247

Footnote:  Interesting comments on January 13 by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Arctic sea ice extent

The positive AO is conducive to sea ice growth and Arctic sea ice growth rate continues to grow slowly and remains well below normal but higher than recent winters; the weather pattern remains favorable for further sea ice growth. Negative sea ice anomalies exist in three regions: the Bering Sea, around Greenland-Canadian Archipelagos and Barents-Kara Seas. The anomalies in the North Pacific sector have shrunk (Figure 16), and based on model forecasts negative sea ice anomalies in the Bering Sea can shrink further in the next two weeks. Below normal sea ice in and around Greenland and the Canadian Archipelagos may favor a negative winter NAO, though there are no signs of such a scenario. Based on recent research low sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi and Bering seas favors cold temperatures in central and eastern North America while low sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, however this topic remains controversial. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Despite a strongly postive AO snow cover has advanced across Eurasia and is now near decadal means. And if the snowfall forecasts for Europe ever verify it could advance further. Above normal snow cover extent in October, favors a strengthened Siberian high, cold temperatures across northern Eurasia and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter followed by cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.

A previous post reprinted below pointed out how Pacific ice recovers in fits and starts, often see sawing between Bering and Okhotsk Seas.  Now both of them are growing faster than the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).  The image above shows how much colder is Alaska this year versus 2019, probably related to Bering icing over.  In the last 9 days, Bering added 100k km2, now up to 85% of last March max.  Okhotsk added 150k km2 up to 67% of last March max.

The graph shows how January 2020 compared to 13 year average and some other years of interest.

This year’s recovery is matching and slightly exceeding average, and ahead of other recent years.  MASIE shows extents slightly higher than SII.

By January there are not many places where Arctic ice extent can grow.  All the Eurasian shelf seas are full, as is the case on the CanAm side: Beaufort, CAA, Hudson Bay covered completely.  Barents  and Greenland Seas have some room to grow, as does Baffin Bay.  But mainly the variability is on the Pacific side, where the usual Bering/Okhotsk see saw is reappearing.

As we have seen in past winters, ice in the Pacific Arctic tends to grow in fits and spurts, often alternating between Bering and Okhotsk Seas.  The above image of the first two weeks of 2020 shows Okhotsk on the left growing ice steadily while Bering waffled back and forth ending with almost the same extent.  Combined the two seas ice extents are slightly below the 13 year average at this time, due to Bering’s slow recovery.

The January graph shows MASIE and SII reporting the same pace of ice recovery and matching 2019.  This is somewhat below the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive) and higher than 2017 and 2018. The table below shows the distribution of ice extent among the Arctic regions on January 14.

Region	2020014	Day 014 Average	2020-Ave.	2018014	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13541376	13776703	-235327	13340428	200948
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070223	432	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	965812	160	965971	1
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897842	3	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	932936	909656	23280	925247	7689
(6) Barents_Sea	619526	508236	111290	393026	226500
(7) Greenland_Sea	483377	610574	-127197	521896	-38519
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1039079	1172487	-133408	1173039	-133960
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853058	1225	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260192	1251600	8592	1260838	-646
(11) Central_Arctic	3233354	3210543	22811	3194383	38971
(12) Bering_Sea	414963	521989	-107026	241830	173133
(13) Baltic_Sea	8863	43903	-35040	24486	-15623
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	651004	626433	24571	696684	-45681

2019 NH ice is 235k km2 below the 13-year average, or 1.7%, and 200k km2 more than 2018 on that date.  The deficits are in Bering, Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay, partly offset by surpluses in Barents, Kara and Okhotsk.

The next month or so will show how the Pacific ice shapes up.

 

 

 

A previous post noted the Pacific ice see saw had returned, with Bering Sea slow to recover.  The image above shows recovery of Arctic sea ice extent over the month of January 2020. As supported by the table later, the pace of refreezing was slow to begin but has now allowed 2020 to match the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive). Okohotsk Sea on the left has grown ice extent steadily to be currently at 66% of last March maximum.  Bering on the right waffled back and forth but gained strongly the last few days.

The graph below shows the ice extent growing during January compared to some other years and the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 13 year average increases about 1.2M km2 during January, up to 14.4M km2. MASIE 2020 stated with a slower icing rate, dropping 300k km2 lower than average before catching up to reaching the average on January 19.  Both 2018 and 2017 were lower at this point, while MASIE and SII are tracking closely together.

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Deficits in Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay are offset by surpluses in Kara and Barents Seas.  At this point the surplus in Okhotsk exceeds the Bering deficit. Going forward, most of the additional ice extent will in the Pacific Seas.

Region	2020019	Day 019 Average	2020-Ave.	2018019	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13933540	13939872	-6332	13431421	502118
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070223	432	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	965999	-27	965971	1
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897842	3	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	933810	911944	21867	902003	31807
(6) Barents_Sea	646750	502965	143784	286684	360065
(7) Greenland_Sea	525324	600387	-75063	453112	72212
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1155618	1245934	-90317	1355009	-199391
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853058	1225	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260192	1257480	2712	1260838	-646
(11) Central_Arctic	3239662	3203861	35801	3161866	77796
(12) Bering_Sea	443027	570321	-127294	309601	133425
(13) Baltic_Sea	9625	52416	-42791	24115	-14491
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	817160	669235	147925	782693	34467

Footnote:  Interesting comments on January 13 by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Arctic sea ice extent

The positive AO is conducive to sea ice growth and Arctic sea ice growth rate continues to grow slowly and remains well below normal but higher than recent winters; the weather pattern remains favorable for further sea ice growth. Negative sea ice anomalies exist in three regions: the Bering Sea, around Greenland-Canadian Archipelagos and Barents-Kara Seas. The anomalies in the North Pacific sector have shrunk (Figure 16), and based on model forecasts negative sea ice anomalies in the Bering Sea can shrink further in the next two weeks. Below normal sea ice in and around Greenland and the Canadian Archipelagos may favor a negative winter NAO, though there are no signs of such a scenario. Based on recent research low sea ice anomalies in the Chukchi and Bering seas favors cold temperatures in central and eastern North America while low sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor cold temperatures in Central and East Asia, however this topic remains controversial. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

Despite a strongly postive AO snow cover has advanced across Eurasia and is now near decadal means. And if the snowfall forecasts for Europe ever verify it could advance further. Above normal snow cover extent in October, favors a strengthened Siberian high, cold temperatures across northern Eurasia and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter followed by cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.

By January there are not many places where Arctic ice extent can grow.  All the Eurasian shelf seas are full, as is the case on the CanAm side: Beaufort, CAA, Hudson Bay covered completely.  Barents  and Greenland Seas have some room to grow, as does Baffin Bay.  But mainly the variability is on the Pacific side, where the usual Bering/Okhotsk see saw is reappearing.

As we have seen in past winters, ice in the Pacific Arctic tends to grow in fits and spurts, often alternating between Bering and Okhotsk Seas.  The above image of the first two weeks of 2020 shows Okhotsk on the left growing ice steadily while Bering waffled back and forth ending with almost the same extent.  Combined the two seas ice extents are slightly below the 13 year average at this time, due to Bering’s slow recovery.

The January graph shows MASIE and SII reporting the same pace of ice recovery and matching 2019.  This is somewhat below the 13 year average (2007 to 2019 inclusive) and higher than 2017 and 2018. The table below shows the distribution of ice extent among the Arctic regions on January 14.

Region	2020014	Day 014 Average	2020-Ave.	2018014	2020-2018
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13541376	13776703	-235327	13340428	200948
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070223	432	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	965812	160	965971	1
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897842	3	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	932936	909656	23280	925247	7689
(6) Barents_Sea	619526	508236	111290	393026	226500
(7) Greenland_Sea	483377	610574	-127197	521896	-38519
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1039079	1172487	-133408	1173039	-133960
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853058	1225	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260192	1251600	8592	1260838	-646
(11) Central_Arctic	3233354	3210543	22811	3194383	38971
(12) Bering_Sea	414963	521989	-107026	241830	173133
(13) Baltic_Sea	8863	43903	-35040	24486	-15623
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	651004	626433	24571	696684	-45681

2019 NH ice is 235k km2 below the 13-year average, or 1.7%, and 200k km2 more than 2018 on that date.  The deficits are in Bering, Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay, partly offset by surpluses in Barents, Kara and Okhotsk.

The next month or so will show how the Pacific ice shapes up.

 

 

 

The image above shows recovery of Arctic sea ice extent over the month of December 2019. As supported by the table later, the pace of refreezing allowed 2019 to match and exceed for a few days the 12 year average (2007 to 2018 inclusive).

The month began with seas on the Eurasian side (left) already ice-covered, so no additional extent came from there.  OTOH Hudson Bay (right) filled in completely, gaining from 445k km2 to 1255k km2, virtually to its max.  Most of the action now is on the Pacific side (bottom) where Chukchi iced over, and Bering (center) and Okhotsk (left) have started to freeze in ernest.

The graph below shows the ice extent growing during December compared to some other years and the 12 year average (2007 to 2018 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 12 year average increases almost 2M km2 during December, up to 13.1M km2. MASIE 2019 shows a faster icing rate, starting 600k km2 lower than average before reaching and surpassing the average, ending December in a virtual tie with average.  Both 2018 and 2017 were lower at this point, while MASIE and SII are tracking closely together.

Region	2019365	Day 365 Average	2019-Ave.	2017365	2019-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12980000	13070435	-90436	12628187	351813
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070655	1070266	389	1070445	210
(2) Chukchi_Sea	965972	964161	1811	943883	22090
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087134	3	1087120	18
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897842	3	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	929682	880747	48935	892689	36993
(6) Barents_Sea	479642	424886	54756	331819	147823
(7) Greenland_Sea	590098	568883	21215	555757	34341
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	851131	1016132	-165001	978074	-126943
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853098	1185	853109	1174
(10) Hudson_Bay	1254576	1231781	22795	1260838	-6262
(11) Central_Arctic	3228672	3206086	22586	3191526	37147
(12) Bering_Sea	362317	439846	-77529	194350	167967
(13) Baltic_Sea	8738	32177	-23439	13345	-4607
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	390113	376320	13793	336595	53518

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Bering Sea and Baffin Bay have the only deficits to average, while other regions are at or above average;  Kara and Barents Seas are in surplus.

Footnote:  Interesting comments recently by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations. Excerpts with my bolds.

I have said many times the first thing that you learn as a seasonal forecaster is humility and these are one of those times. What is humbling me at the moment is that I have expected a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) based on fall Arctic predictors – extensive Siberian snow cover, more limited Arctic sea ice extent and a relatively warm Arctic. Following the PV weakening or disruption, severe winter weather would be more frequent at least regionally across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). But to be honest it is hard to see from today’s viewpoint how this verifies. And as I have shared on Twitter the new operational GFS, the FV3, has been especially bullish on a strong PV.

The biggest challenge that I see right now is the center of low mid-tropospheric heights currently just north of Alaska and is expected to expand in breadth over the next two weeks enough so to fill the entire Arctic basin. This a fairly class pattern of low heights in the Arctic and high heights in the mid-latitudes resulting in a cold Arctic/warm continents pattern, all consistent with a positive AO. It seems a bit ironic (at least to me) that with the record low sea ice in the Chukchi-Bering seas this fall, the incredibly warm year Alaska just experienced both in part due to persistent ridging in the region, this same region is predicted to now experience an extended period of low heights and below normal temperatures. As an aside, this is something that I had a hard time anticipating even just a few weeks ago. 

So, for now I remain steadfast in the winter forecast that based on high fall snow cover/low Arctic sea ice that they will in tandem perturb the PV. Given the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) I expect a scenario somewhere between winter 2016/17 and winter 2017/18. Both of those winters were westerly QBO winters and the most significant disruption of the stratospheric PV took place in February.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

The image above, supported by the table later on shows that in December ice has recovered in the central Arctic with open water found only on the margins, as is typical this time of year. The animation shows progression of ice extent from Dec. 1 to Dec. 22, 2019.

Most dramatic is Hudson Bay on the left filling in over these 3 weeks, from 445k km2 up to 1214k km2, 96% of maximum. At the top, Chukchi Sea also ices over, from 589k km2 to 933k km2, 97% of max. Above Chukchi is Bering Sea just starting with fast ice, and Okhotsk upper right growing ice as usual. The two places lagging behind in ice recovery are Bering Sea and Baffin Bay.

The graph below shows the ice extent growing during December compared to some other years and the 12 year average (2007 to 2018 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 12 year average increases almost 2M km2 during December, up to 13.1M km2. MASIE 2019 shows a faster icing rate, starting 600k km2 lower than average and now down 200k km2, or 1.5%. MASIE and SII are tracking quite closely this month.  By month end all years appear to be converging on the 12-year average.

Region	2019356	Day 356 Average	2019-Ave.	2010356	2019-2010
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12428357	12623541	-195184	12257118	171239
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070223	1070266	-42	1070445	-222
(2) Chukchi_Sea	933276	953650	-20374	964317	-31041
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087133	4	1087137	0
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897842	3	897845	0
(5) Kara_Sea	929742	864955	64786	934937	-5195
(6) Barents_Sea	447093	358194	88899	607130	-160037
(7) Greenland_Sea	533666	562497	-28831	579647	-45980
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	751185	924722	-173536	630041	121144
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854282	853082	1201	853214	1068
(10) Hudson_Bay	1213848	1199010	14839	767479	446370
(11) Central_Arctic	3225391	3199892	25499	3244808	-19417
(12) Bering_Sea	147493	312873	-165379	219969	-72475
(13) Baltic_Sea	11462	20025	-8564	100363	-88902
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	324167	306066	18101	283712	40455

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average.  Bering Sea and Baffin Bay have the only large deficits to average, while Kara and Barents Seas are in surplus.

Footnote:  Interesting comments today by Dr. Judah Cohen at his blog regarding the Arctic fluctuations. Excerpts with my bolds.

I have said many times the first thing that you learn as a seasonal forecaster is humility and these are one of those times. What is humbling me at the moment is that I have expected a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) based on fall Arctic predictors – extensive Siberian snow cover, more limited Arctic sea ice extent and a relatively warm Arctic. Following the PV weakening or disruption, severe winter weather would be more frequent at least regionally across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). But to be honest it is hard to see from today’s viewpoint how this verifies. And as I have shared on Twitter the new operational GFS, the FV3, has been especially bullish on a strong PV.

The biggest challenge that I see right now is the center of low mid-tropospheric heights currently just north of Alaska and is expected to expand in breadth over the next two weeks enough so to fill the entire Arctic basin. This a fairly class pattern of low heights in the Arctic and high heights in the mid-latitudes resulting in a cold Arctic/warm continents pattern, all consistent with a positive AO. It seems a bit ironic (at least to me) that with the record low sea ice in the Chukchi-Bering seas this fall, the incredibly warm year Alaska just experienced both in part due to persistent ridging in the region, this same region is predicted to now experience an extended period of low heights and below normal temperatures. As an aside, this is something that I had a hard time anticipating even just a few weeks ago. 

So, for now I remain steadfast in the winter forecast that based on high fall snow cover/low Arctic sea ice that they will in tandem perturb the PV. Given the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) I expect a scenario somewhere between winter 2016/17 and winter 2017/18. Both of those winters were westerly QBO winters and the most significant disruption of the stratospheric PV took place in February.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides.