Climate Impacts

X-Weather is Climate Scoundrels’ Last Refuge

Posted on by Ron Clutz

John Ray posted on his blog an update of climatists power play against scientific facts contrary to their beliefs. The saga is about the Alimonte et al. (2022) analysis of extreme weather events and the lack of evidence to attribute them to global warming.  In italics with my bolds Ray’s post is:

The “extreme events” issue

The very gradual process of global warming that we have seen so far has produced no direct ill-effects that we can see. Crops are more abundant than ever and some Pacific islands are growing rather than shrinking. So “extreme events” are the last refuge of the warmists. Bad weather generally is routinely branded as an extreme event and is attributed to global warming without any shred of evidence for the link.

Any causal statement requires controls.

You have to show that the “caused” event would not have happened without the “cause” specified. But that would require you to show what would have happened WITHOUT global warming — and that is impossible.

Single events might or might not be due to some influence or other but you have no way of showing what the influence was. It is known as the “attribution” problem and is in principle unsolvable where the event is a “one-off”, a hurricane, for instance. You have to have variations in the causal condition to correlate with the alleged caused condition. Would this hurricane have happened in the absence of global warming? We cannot know. We can only surmise. And a surmise is no proof.

So the attribution of individual extreme events to global warming is LOGICALLY false. It CANNOT be shown as be fact. But science is at ease with hypotheses so it remains a hypothesis that COULD be true even if proving it is currently impossible.

And an hypothesis can be tested in various ways. It is commonly tested by asking if it generates accurate predictions. And it could be held as preliminary support for an hypothesis that the incidence of extreme events has systematically increased as the globe has warmed. Is there a correlation? So has it? There are some claims to that effect but how well-founded are they? Have extreme events in fact become more frequent?

A recent study has addressed that hypothesis. They have looked at a big range of reports about extreme events and asked are such events becoming more frequent. For each of a range or event extremes they have gathered published information about whether such events are increasing in frequency over time. An abstract of the report concerned is given below.

It finds no evidence that any extreme event has become more frequent.
So the claimed connections are not only logically false
but they are empirically false too.

The study was published 18 months ago and various climate skeptics have quoted it approvingly. That approval has eventually got under the skin of the Warmists so they have tried to discredit the research concerned. And their antagonism to the paper has borne fruit. The paper was “withdrawn” by its publisher, which counts as evidence that it is faulty.

But is it faulty? A much quoted attack on the paper in “The Guardian” lists a whole array of orthododox Warmists who say it is faulty but detailed evidence of the faults is conspicuously missing. No detailed numbers are quoted and the issue is entirely a matter of numbers. The Guardian makes clear that orthodox scientists disagree with the paper but does not give chapter and verse why. Link to The Guardian below:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/22/sky-and-the-australian-find-no-evidence-of-a-climate-emergency-they-werent-looking-hard-enough

Note that some of the attacks from Warmists are of the most intellectually discreditable kind: “Ad hominem” attacks — attacking the motives of the authors rather than the evidence they put forward

And that none of the critics quote the detailed numbers is a major scientific fault.

If a scientist disagrees with the conclusions of a particular paper — as I have often done — he goes over the ground covered by the paper and shows where it went wrong. In this case the paper at issue is a meta-analysis so the data behind it is readily available. Its conclusions are readily tested by repeating the meta-analysis in some more cautious way. Nobody seems to have attempted that. “Do better” is the obvious retort to the Warmists but none seem even to have attempted that.

The next link takes you to an extensive discussion of whether the paper deserved withdrawal:

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/thread-extended-peer-review-of-the/comments

The abstract of the deplored paper follows:

A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming

Gianluca Alimonti et al.

Abstract

This article reviews recent bibliography on time series of some extreme weather events and related response indicators in order to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency is detectable. The most robust global changes in climate extremes are found in yearly values of heatwaves (number of days, maximum duration and cumulated heat), while global trends in heatwave intensity are not significant. Daily precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation frequency are stationary in the main part of the weather stations. Trend analysis of the time series of tropical cyclones show a substantial temporal invariance and the same is true for tornadoes in the USA. At the same time, the impact of warming on surface wind speed remains unclear. The analysis is then extended to some global response indicators of extreme meteorological events, namely natural disasters, floods, droughts, ecosystem productivity and yields of the four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat). None of these response indicators show a clear positive trend of extreme events. In conclusion on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet. It would be nevertheless extremely important to define mitigation and adaptation strategies that take into account current trends.

A 2015 study by 22 scientists from around the world found that cold kills over 17 times more people than heat. Thus the planet’s recent modest warming has been saving millions of lives.

Springer website reports the paper retracted August 23, 2023.  The article was revised by the authors and published at Environmental Hazards journal on August 3, 2023 as reported at Taylor & Francis online

Is the number of global natural disasters increasing?

We analyze temporal trends in the number of natural disasters reported since 1900 in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Visual inspection suggests three distinct phases: first, a linear upward trend to around mid-century followed by rapid growth to the turn of the new century, and thereafter a decreasing trend to 2022. These observations are supported by piecewise regression analyses that identify three breakpoints (1922, 1975, 2002), with the most recent subperiod 2002–2022 characterized by a significant decline in number of events. A similar pattern over time is exhibited by contemporaneous number of geophysical disasters – volcanoes, earthquakes, dry landslides – which, by their nature, are not significantly influenced by climate or anthropogenic factors. We conclude that the patterns observed are largely attributable to progressively better reporting of natural disaster events, with the EM-DAT dataset now regarded as relatively complete since ∼2000. The above result sits in marked contradiction to earlier analyses by two UN bodies (FAO andUNDRR), which predicts an increasing number of natural disasters and impacts in concert with global warming. Our analyses strongly refute this assertion as well as extrapolations published by UNDRR based on this claim.

Conclusion Alimonte et al.

Fearing a climate emergency without this being supported by data, means altering the framework of priorities with negative effects that could prove deleterious to our ability to face the challenges of the future, squandering natural and human resources in an economically difficult context, even more negative following the COVID emergency. This does not mean we should do nothing about climate change: we should work to minimize our impact on the planet and to minimize air and water pollution.

Whether or not we manage to drastically curtail our carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades, we need to reduce our vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events. Leaving the baton to our children without burdening them with the anxiety of being in a climate emergency would allow them to face the various problems in place (energy,agricultural-food, health, etc.) with a more objective and constructive spirit, with the goal of arriving at a weighted assessment of the actions to be taken without wasting the limited resources at our disposal in costly and ineffective solutions.

How the climate of the twenty-first century will play out is a topic of deep uncertainty. We need to increase our resiliency to whatever the future climate will present us.We need to remind ourselves that addressing climate change is not an end in itself, and that climate change is not the only problem that the world is facing. The objective should be to improve human well-being in the twenty-first century, while protecting the environmentas much as we can.  And it would be a nonsense not to do so: it would be like not taking care of the house where we were born and raised.

Tony Thomas describes the climate scoundrels and their machinations at the Quadrant:  How Science is Done These Days

Footnote Add Another Scoundrel

 

Arctic Ice Surprise in East Siberia

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Oil tanker NS Arctic sailing in icy waters. Photo: Dmitry Lobusov, icebreaker captain for Rosatomflot

With the warmer water temperatures in the North Atlantic this summer, we can expect lower Arctic sea ice extents.  But maybe not.  Barents Observer reports A month after they set out on Arctic voyage, two Russian oil tankers still battle with sea-ice.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The ships that are loaded with more than 200,000 tons of oil
might have been surprised by ice pack in the East Siberian Sea.

The Primorsky Prospect and NS Arctic on the 12th and 14th of July respectively set out from St.Petersburg with course for the Chinese ports of Dalian and Rizhao. They were to arrive at destinations by the middle of August.  That schedule is now significantly postponed. Shipping data show that the ships will make it to the Chinese ports no earlier than 26th of August.

Although the tankers both have ice classification Arc3, their voyage across the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea have been marred with troubles with the sea-ice.   For several days, the tankers were at standstill off the New Siberian Islands, and later also in the southern part of the East Siberian Sea.

Nevertheless, the long and icy voyage of the two oil tankers raises new questions about the actual benefits of sailing on the Northern Sea Route, as well as security in the area.

Sea-ice in thee East Siberian Sea in period 6-8th of August 2023. Map by Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute

Both the NS Arctic and Primorsky Prospect have ice classification Arc3, but neither of them have permission to sail independently through the most complex parts of the Northern Sea Route in anything but light ice conditions.  Growing parts of the East Siberian Sea are ice-free. But changes can quickly occur in this region and a sudden emergence of ice pack might have taken the ships by surprise.

But in medium ice conditions, the ships are obliged to hire icebreaker escort. It is not clear to what extent the tankers have made it into medium ice conditions. But ice maps from the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute show that major parts of the East Siberian Sea have a white sheet.

“Perhaps the wind has pushed the ice pack towards the coast, increasing the concentration locally so that there’s no longer continuous green strip along the coast?” an anonymous industry expert says to the Barents Observer.

According to the expert, there appears to be no imminent risk for a dangerous situation.

Nuclear icebreaker Sibir escorts ships through the Vilkitsky Strait. Photo: Rosatom/Kirill Razin

Climate Hype Backfires on Greens

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Mark Higgie reports Europe’s summer of climate hysteria in Spectator Australia.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

But voters continue to move against the Green tide

If the British weather were a person with bank accounts, it would by now likely find itself, like Nigel Farage, ‘de-banked’ for political incorrectness. While the BBC has gone into hysterics over the hot summer in southern Europe, further north the British weather has stubbornly refused to co-operate with the Green warming narrative. Temperatures for much of the summer have barely reached those of a winter’s day in Canberra. Much of the British media has tied itself in knots trying to explain why, if the world just had its hottest July ever, and is, in the words of UN Secretary-General Gutteres, ‘boiling’, everyone in Britain is wearing jumpers and has the heating on.

Where has UK summer gone?

As the media have pulled out all the stops to stir climate fear, Australians will recognise echoes of the ABC’s coverage of the 2019-20 bushfires – especially the silence about revelations that Europe’s recent ‘wildfires’ were fuelled by Green-tinged failures to backburn and were started in many cases by arsonists.

Sadly a watershed moment has been reached: you can no longer trust
Europe’s weather forecasts and readings.

Many of the BBC’s forecasts in mid-July for southern Europe proved wildly exaggerated. For example, on 18 July, it reported Sardinia was expected that day to see a high of 46 degrees and that ‘there are warnings that extreme heat could continue for a further 10 days’. In fact, Sardinia peaked at 40 and temperatures then fell steadily to the low-30s over the following week.

Much of the hyperbole appears to have been based on a swifty pulled by the European Space Agency (ESA), on which many media outlets rely for weather forecasts. On 13 July it issued a press release claiming that the ‘air temperature’ of Sardinia and Sicily was ‘expected’ to climb to 48 degrees, ‘potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe’. In Sicily in fact it never went above 35 degrees. Unusually, the 13 July ESA press release, updated five days later, claimed that land temperatures in the 40s and 50s had been recorded across southern Europe in the previous days. The standard measurement of temperature is that of the air, made two metres above the ground. Land temperatures will of course always be many degrees higher, as anyone who has walked barefoot on a concrete footpath in summertime Australia will know. The ESA’s 48 degree forecast of the ‘air’ temperature in southern Italy was obviously an error – in reality it was the forecast land temperature.

The forecast was never corrected, went unnoticed by most in the media
and was repeated around the world.

When the weather map went crazy in Arizona

Yet despite the unrelenting propaganda, European voters continue to defy the climate lobby’s plan to make them colder and poorer. Voters over the past year have given the Green-left a bloody nose at virtually every opportunity – in national and regional elections in Italy, Sweden, Finland, Greece and Germany. The Netherlands might join that list after elections later this year – the Farmer-Citizen Movement recently came out of nowhere against the government’s Green jihad on farming and is on course to influence policy as the country’s equal-largest party. Meanwhile in Spain, the elections in July saw a major swing to the right against the ultra-eco Socialists, even if it wasn’t enough this time to unseat them.

By contrast Britain’s left defeated the Tories at two of last month’s three by-elections – largely because grumpy Conservative voters failed to turn out. But the result which has had the most political impact is the Tories’ surprise retention of Boris Johnson’s former seat in outer London, Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Fought more or less solely on London’s Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan’s planned expansion of the city’s ‘Ultra Low-emission Zone’ (ULEZ) – which would mean owners of older cars would be hit with green levies – it has allowed the Tories to glimpse a possible path to victory at next year’s general election.

While ULEZ is not directly related to the net-zero agenda, it has only now dawned on the Tories that while the vast majority of Britons want a cleaner environment, they oppose Green measures involving cost and/or inconvenience. A recent YouGov poll found that while net zero in principle attracted 70 per cent support, if net zero entailed ‘costs for ordinary people’, support fell to just over a quarter.

Since Uxbridge, Prime Minister Sunak has suddenly started portraying himself as ‘pro-motorist’, now opposing ULEZ-like schemes across the country and the proliferation of 20mph speed limits. He’s also suddenly approving new North Sea oil and gas development projects, while attacking Labour as eco-fanatics in bed with extremists like Just Stop Oil.

Over 40 Tory MPs and peers have told Sunak they want him to go further and to defer Boris Johnson’s ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 – a planned measure opposed by 83 per cent of Tory members, according to an opinion poll. Sunak and other members of the Tory establishment for the moment flatly reject this.

If the opinion polls don’t shift, panic could lead the Conservatives to shift more dramatically on their net-zero policies. The obvious options are to delay the looming bans on non-electric cars and gas boilers. An even bolder move would be to announce a referendum on net zero, as championed by Nigel Farage and the Daily Telegraph. That would provoke meltdown by much of the British establishment but isn’t inconceivable.

Arctic Ice Surplus Wiped Out in 5 Days? Mid August 2023

Posted on by Ron Clutz

 

An incredible turn of events in Arctic Ice extent reporting in the last five days.  As the chart above shows, it is not unusual in August to have sharp downturns in ice extents.  However, the 2023 drop is unprecedented and looks suspiciously like an adjustment to bring MASIE in line with SII.  Note that for 25 days, MASIE showed much more ice than SII, ranging as much as +622k km2 on August 1 and +572k km2 on day 222. Moreover, those two days were in surplus to MASIE 17 year average:  +460k km2, and + 265k km2 respectively.

Then on day 223 MASIE dropped 466k km2, unprecendented for a single day.   And further declines resulted a five day total loss exceeding 1 Wadham, 1.05M km2.  In just five days, a surplus of  +265k turned into a deficit of -448k.  And MASIE is now 170k lower than SII. 

I have asked for an explanation and am awaiting a reply from NSIDC.

The table for day 227 shows a distribution of ice extent across the Arctic regions, in comparison to 17 year average and 2007.  2023 was 448k km2 below average, or 8% of total extent.

Region 2023227 Day 227 Average 2023-Ave. 2007227 2023-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 5483921 5932184  -448263  5673110 -189189 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 508614 724117  -215503  770413 -261799 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 477947 429182  48765  260048 217899 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 336549 569134  -232585  172718 163831 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 327171 238108  89064  292592 34579 
 (5) Kara_Sea 149411 95286  54126  201115 -51703 
 (6) Barents_Sea 10737 24019  -13282  17324 -6587 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 221710 229025  -7315  316155 -94445 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 50784 58004  -7220  86165 -35380 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 289715 418748  -129033  375984 -86268 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 44528 67445  -22917  91653 -47125 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3066518 3077985  -11466  3087687 -21168 

The table shows the bulk of the deficit appears in Beaufort and East Siberian seas and CAA, with smaller surpluses in Chukchi, Laptev and Kara seas.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.

Forget Reason and Science, It’s “Global Boiling” Now

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Christopher Lingle explains in his AIER article “Global Boiling”: An Assault On Reason and Science.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

An interesting and troubling double standard is applied to the acceptability of individual actions and those of political agents. An individual declaring an emergency when none exists, e.g., shouting “fire” in a crowded cinema, would lead to rightful punishment, yet public officials can do so without attracting the same scrutiny.

According to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, “the era of global warming has ended” and “the era of global boiling has arrived.” Of course, this statement was made with little or no sense of perspective or the possibility that any sensible human would challenge or refute it.

This comment is the latest reference relating to what is and has been going on with the weather and climate. After the warming showed a slowdown; climate change became the operative term, but this was found to be insufficiently alarming.

In turn, climate action became the necessary antidote to a “climate emergency” or “climate crisis.” Having gone full circle, with the focus back to the fetish with high temperatures during a seasonal, localized and predictable heatwave, the assertion is that we are in the midst of climate boiling.

Even with no knowledge of science, per se, recipe books point out that “boiling” occurs when water is heated to 212º Fahrenheit (100º Celsius) at sea level. For his part, it may be that the UN Boss knows that water will boil at lower temperatures at higher elevations, but he is unlikely to have been at such altitudes in his native Portugal to observe a boiling point close to recent global averages.

Although it is common for references regarding current weather to be over-stated, it does not necessarily indicate changes or trends in climatic conditions. Besides the notion of “boiling” temperatures, headlines that suggest current temperatures are “scorching” or “scalding” indicate a misunderstanding of what those terms mean.

It might be that using fear and pandering to ignorance is better than coercion to impose a narrative. Persuasion in search of cooperative arrangements is surely what should be expected of a liberal, representative democracy, but this is threatened just as much by “Left” as well as “Right” populism.  It turns out the use of extreme terms in the climate debate is not about either exaggeration or hyperbole, since exaggeration or hyperbole requires there be an element of truth in statements.

Terms used to express the effect of high temperatures on the human body
are misleading, disingenuous, and factually untrue.

Ginning up fear is a well-known technique of propaganda to support a narrative, as is the case of reports of momentary weather conditions as though they presage eventual or irrevocable climatic changes. An example of how an isolated weather event is portrayed as if it were evidence of a generalized view of overall conditions can be seen in a recent report on National Public Radio.

Noting the measurements of a single water temperature sensor in Manatee Bay, near the Everglades National Park, reached 101.1 degrees, the data were declared to be “startling” as if they reflected high average temperatures in the Florida Bay area. It went on to declare that “scorching” temperatures “could” pose a major risk to coral and other marine life.

It is noteworthy that the word “could” in this context has no real content since such conditional expressions provide no insight into or substantiation of the likelihood of the referred event. Supporters of this narrative expect most citizens to be uncurious and to willingly accept assertions of political officials for the purpose of misleading or frightening them, so they submit to whatever remedial public policies are imposed.

In all events, there was no data to support the claim of “startling” water conditions in the rest of Florida Bay. Further, the claim that the temperatures are “scorching” is confusing, at best, since injury from water burns is commonly known as scalding.

Concerning scalding, second degree burns can occur from exposure for 3 seconds to water of 140°F, while a third degree burn requires at least 5 seconds of exposure at same temperature. As it is, the temperature of sea water measured from a single buoy off the Florida coast far from those temperatures and is variable over the course of 24 hours, up to 10 degrees less at night.

Of course, the heat in the ambient air is also far away from what would be “boiling” or “scorching” temperatures. But it turns out that there is no “settled science” on the maximum ambient temperatures that will cause heat distress.

In fact, more is known about the effect of low ambient temperatures on the human body. If the temperature falls below the lower limit, 82.4º Fahrenheit (28º Celsius), more energy is used to hold internal temperature at the optimum, and if temperatures are too low, shivering occurs causing involuntary muscular contractions to generate heat.

Thermoregulation of body temperature is necessary to sustain human life and survival of human cells to thrive rather than to overheat or die. The human body engages in homeostasis to maintain balance by keeping core internal temperature within a safe range, no matter what temperatures are outside the body, otherwise organ failures might occur.

Results of research conducted at the University of Roehampton indicates ambient temperatures exceeding 104º Fahrenheit (40º Celsius) might cause some humans to be unable to shed excessive heat so that body functions become abnormal. It points out that there is a “thermoneutral” zone of temperatures within which the body has no need to increase metabolic rate or use more energy to achieve the normal core temperature of 98.6º Fahrenheit (37º Celsius).

While high temperatures can impact cardiovascular health (e.g., during heatwaves or while fighting fires), it is not a matter of climate change. Blood clotting (i.e., thrombogenesis) can occur from exposure to long and uninterrupted exposure to extreme heat, but it depends on individuals’ physical characteristics and conditions.

Of course, few people are exposed to extremely high temperatures for lengthy periods,
and if so, there are many evasive actions they can undertake to protect themselves.

In all events, it is widely known that the biggest killer from extreme temperatures is from exposure in the low ranges of thermometer readings, even in Africa and Asia.

On the left, Lancet stretched the heat axis to make the numbers look larger in their presentation.

Unfortunately, the promotion of the “climate narrative” has been successful in inducing citizens to ignore how their liberties and rights are in jeopardy from the imposition of repressive public policies that are being answered as a solution. While Germans are being subjected to adopt expensive heat pumps, Americans are beingchided for using gas ranges and the likelihood they might be banned from future installation.

Alas, citizens have lost sight of the original intent behind the move from autocratic monarchy to democracy, which was to secure the rights of all citizens and support private property as the basis for human liberty and personal dignity.

Gas stoves just the thin end of the wedge.

While the American republic was founded to put a brake on political power and limit arbitrary rule, democracy is now presented as an “all-or-nothing” game such that any curbs on democratic governance will lead to its disappearance.

Most recently, governments around the world have found that frightening their citizens would induce them to accept, even applaud, repressive policies in exchange for the promise that individual citizens would be shielded from a single virus. The loss of rights and freedom in response to the fear conjured up during the COVID-19 pandemic is a harbinger of what will be claimed as necessary to avert the existential threat to humanity from extreme weather and changing climate.

 

Barrier Reef Great Again

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Last night I watched an extraordinary netflix documentary which took us on a journey discovering the rich variety of reef life, including microscopic creatures not shown in videos before. It was highly educational and thoroughly delightful . . . until suddenly it wasn’t.  Spoiler Alert:  Puff returns as an adult to the reef where he was born after leaving it to mature in a mangrove marsh.  Alas, he finds the coral dead and blackened, and the narrator warns us:  Warming oceans kiiled the reef and we must change the way we live for the sake of Puff and the other reef creatures.  There may have been more to the fire and brimstone ending, but I was so turned off that I turned it off.

Why must nature documentaries resort to doomsday guilt trips to destroy any good feelings about our world?  Chris Morrison provides the antidote in his Daily Sceptic article Coral at the Great Barrier Reef Holds on to Recent Record Gains, Defying All Doomsday Predictions.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Coral at the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) faces another year of exile from the climate scare headlines with news that the record levels reported in 2021-22 have been sustained in the latest annual period to May 2023. A small drop in the three main areas of the reef was well within margin of error territory, with the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) reporting that regional average hard coral cover in 2022-2023 was similar to last year at 35.7%. Most reefs underwent little change during the year.

Coral at the reef has been bouncing back sharply for a number of years, with a record 36-year high reported in 2022. But the news of this spectacular recovery has been largely ignored in most media since it had previously been a go-to poster scare story for collectivist Net Zero promoters. But connecting the fate of tropical corals to global warming was always a difficult ask since they grow in waters between 24-32°C. Short boosts in local temperatures can cause temporary bleaching, but it is scientifically impossible to pin it on human-caused climate change, although pseudoscientific ‘attribution’ computer models try very hard.

In the latest year, there was a short local temperature rise,
but little bleaching was reported during the 2023 summer.

No cyclones hit the reef and crown-of thorns starfish attacks were limited. Nevertheless, natural stresses will always affect the eco-system and AIMS states that these paused the growth of hard coral on some of the reefs.

Like most state-funded scientific bodies, The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) is fully signed up to climate extremism and delivering politically correct messages to promote the Net Zero solution. Despite reporting what is now a substantial multi-year recovery, it notes that the future is predicted to bring more frequent, intense and enduring marine heatwaves, alongside the persistent threat of crown-of thorns starfish outbreaks and tropical cyclones. More frequent mass coral bleaching is a sign that the GBR is experiencing the consequences of climate change, it claims. However, in a different part of its latest report, AIMS accepts that the recent substantial recovery occurred despite two mass coral bleaching events in 2020 and 2022.

There is an acceptance that this underlines that “widespread coral bleaching
does not necessarily lead to extensive coral mortality”.

But pockets of extremist catastrophism remain in the mainstream media, notably in the Guardian, fighting to keep the coral destruction story going. A year ago, the newspaper reported that the GBR still had “some capacity” for recovery, but the window was closing fast as the climate continued to warm. Of course the Guardian has form as long as your arm on this score. Back in 1999, George Monbiot told its readers that the “imminent total destruction of the world’s coral reefs is not a scare story but a fact”.

Coral reefs have been around in one form or another for hundreds of millions of years. Current global temperatures are towards the lower end of the paleoclimatic record. One might wonder how corals manage to survive temperatures up to 10°C higher in the past?

Back in the real world, we can see how the recent solid recovery
was sustained across the three main areas of the GBR.

The recovery in the northern GBR actually started around 2017. Last year the coral declined slightly from 36.5% to 35.7%, and was easily within the margin of error calculated by the AIMS. Typhoon Tiffany passed through at the end of the previous reporting season, and could have been responsible for some loss.

In the centre of the reef, the strong recovery of hard coral cover to 32.6% last year eased slightly, but again, as the AIMS noted, it was within the margin of error.

The southern end of the GBR has generally had higher coral cover than elsewhere, but has shown greater variability over the observed record. Last year’s cover was 33.8%, compared with 33.9% the year before. Some coral was reported to have been lost due to starfish predations.

The GBR is the largest reef system on Earth and runs for
over 1,400 miles down the eastern side of Australia.

It is also the most surveyed reef in the world and the results of scientific endeavour are widely distributed. While this work is often politicised, it is clear that recent evidence shows that temporary spikes in temperature, which occur naturally in the oceans, can cause bleaching. However, this bleaching process can rapidly go into reverse when local conditions stabilise. These findings have been confirmed elsewhere, notably in the remote Palmyra Atoll, 1,200 kms south of Hawaii. A 10-year survey recently observed sudden changes in temperature up to 3°C on two occasions, leading to substantial damage to the coral. A 2015-16 spike led to 90% of the coral bleaching, but the researchers found that within a year only 10% of the coral had died. Within two years, the corals had returned to pre-bleached levels.

The researchers concluded that the coral structures
“show evidence of long-term stability”
– but don’t expect to see that on the front page.

Palmyra Atoll, 1,200 kms south of Hawaii.

UN’s Guterres: Head in Oven, Feet in Freezer

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The image is based on a criticism of statisticians:  “If my head is in the oven and my feet are in the freezer, my temperature may be on average normal.”  UN Chief Guterres presumes to speak for the planet when he claims we are experiencing “Global Boiling.”  Apparently, his feet are too numb to register any of the many cold temperatures in places around the world, so he is a victim fearing a runaway average warming.  Let’s inform him and others similarly misled about the facts on the ground they are missing.

Australia

Why Is It So Cold Right Now? A Weather Expert Explains

Temperatures plummeted across southeast Australia this week, with Weatherzone reporting Canberra’s low of -7.2ºC was “its lowest temperature since 2018 and the lowest for June since 1986.”

Sydney experienced its coldest June morning today since 2010, with a temperature of 5.2ºC. In Victoria, temperatures of -7.2ºC were recorded.

Australia just had one of its coolest and wettest summers of the last decade. 

Snow settled on the Stirling Range in WA on Thursday morning after a frigid polar air mass travelled from Antarctica to Australia.

A long fetch of southerly winds has been blowing across the Southern Ocean during the past week, carrying polar air from the ice sheets of Antarctica into unusually low latitudes.

On Thursday morning, this Antarctic air mass reached the Stirling Range in WA and caused snow to settle on Bluff Knoll.

United Kingdom

Met Office explains why the weather is so miserable this May

‘High-pressure systems have been generally located over southern continental Europe and also to the far east of Europe’, they told Metro.co.uk.

The spokesperson continued: ‘As these high-pressure systems interacted through the season, the UK is positioned between them, leading to periods of cool, cloudy, and wet conditions for the UK.  ‘These have generally either swept in from the Atlantic or slipped between the high-pressure systems to reach the UK.

‘Warmer-than-average sea temperatures also provided the necessary fuel for clouds to develop, which has been quite persistent in spring.’

Met Office meteorologist Clare Nasir said: ‘Showers over the next few days could be heavy with the risk of thunder and hail.’   She added that the risk of thunder and hail persist through Wednesday and Thursday.

Where has the UK summer gone

Summer 2023 so far has been one of contrasts – after the warmest June on record we had an exceptionally wet July.  Northern Ireland and much of north-west England had their wettest July on record. Looking ahead there is no immediate end to the distinctly un-summery conditions. So what is going on?

Any spring warmth was hard to come by. After a cool April, very warm weather was distinctly lacking in May. Nowhere reached 24°C until the month was nearly over, on the 27th.

However, that theme changed dramatically in June. Temperatures soared to 32.2°C, with a heatwave being declared in many places and becoming the warmest June on record which, according to the Met Office, bears the “fingerprint of climate change”.

It was all change again in early July with low pressure setting in, and staying put. While much of Europe sweltered in a blistering heatwave the UK sat under cool, wet weather which looks set to stay for the first part of August too.

India

Is January 2023 going to be the coldest year in the 21st century?

There may be no relief from the ongoing spell of cold wave with minimum temperatures hovering below normal limits at most places, reports suggested. If a weather expert is believed, it has been predicted that temperatures in the plains are going to dip as far as -4 degrees Celsius next week.

Large parts of north India are still reeling under numbing cold with the mercury remaining below freezing point at most places in Jammu and Kashmir, while dense fog in the early hours of the morning hit road and rail traffic movement. Cold wave conditions abated in Delhi due to a fresh western disturbance affecting northwest India, even as a dense layer of fog lowered visibility to just 50 metres.

Northern India braces for coldest weather in years as dense fog, poor air quality linger

A new wave of cold weather is headed into northern India and could drop temperatures to levels not seen there in over three years, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

The cold weather shot will be the latest, and perhaps most significant, of many recent waves of chilly weather that have also led to travel-disrupting dense fog and poor air quality over parts of the Indian subcontinent since late December.

The temperature in New Delhi, the capital city of India and home to more than 18 million people, has the potential to drop as low as 2 degrees Celsius (35 degrees Fahrenheit) on Sunday night and Monday morning. While the record low for this coming Monday of 1.3 degrees Celsius below zero (29.7 degrees Fahrenheit) appears safe, it will be well below the average low of 6 degrees Celsius (42 degrees Fahrenheit) for the date.

Temperatures at this level would be the coldest readings in New Delhi since December 2019,” said Nicholls.

Ahead of the cold wave, the IMD has issued a cold wave warning for Sunday and Monday for the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan. The warning was issued to give residents advance notice of a level of cold that could adversely impact human health and property.

Canada

Spring forecast 2023: The La Nina Winter pattern is forecast to extend as we head into Spring despite the breakdown of the cold ocean anomalies

Spring season 2023 is nearing, with forecasts revealing the jet stream pattern over the North Pacific and the Atlantic to be influenced by the diminishing La Nina. A high-pressure system in the Pacific will define the weather patterns over North America, with a potential Stratospheric warming event playing a role early in the season.

The cold ocean phase in the equatorial Pacific is already in breakdown mode. It is expected to decline rapidly towards early Spring.

But, despite the breakdown of these cold ocean anomalies (La Nina), its influence can still persist in global weather circulation. Long-range weather calculations also see this, extending the La Nina jet stream pattern from Winter into Spring 2023.

Spring sits on the sidelines with Winter’s wild ride to the finish line

USA

Winter Forecast 2024: The Brrr Is Back

The Brrr is Back!
“After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice—especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and northern New England areas,” shares editor Pete Geiger, adding “the ‘brrr’ is coming back! We expect more snow and low temperatures nationwide.”

East Coast Snow?
Folks living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with.

Texans Beware!
According to Farmers’ Almanac 2024, Texans should prepare for an unseasonably cold and stormy winter season ahead

Frosts in Florida?
Winter will be wet in the Southeast region however a few frosts are forecast to bring the “brrrs” to Floridians and its snowbirds.

Asia

As Asian countries hit by extreme cold snap, here’s what life is like at -53C

An intense cold spell is gripping east Asia, with temperatures plunging and hazardous conditions reported across China, the Koreas and Japan.

On Monday one of China’s northern-most cities broke its lowest ever recorded temperature, with the mercury hitting -53C at 7am on the first day of the Lunar New Year in Mohe, Heilongjiang province.

Japan and the Korean peninsula have also issued warnings over freezing temperatures and gales that have killed at least one person, while at least 57 people have been reported dead in Afghanistan as the wintry conditions stretch across into central Asia.

Europe

Record-Challenging Cold Sweeps Europe

It’s been cold — ask a European, ask me…

We’ve enjoyed a ‘comfortably cool’ July here in Central Portugal (thus far), it’s been great. Same with my old haunt, the UK. July 2023 there is on course to be colder-than-average–and vs the historically cool 1961-1990 era that the Met Office still insist on using, no less.

Looking ahead, and particularly at central/eastern nations, those summer chills are about to take another step down.

As per the latest GFS run (shown below), ‘pinks’ and ‘purples’ are forecast to engulf the likes of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Albania, Belarus, Ukraine and Romania this week, sending temperatures crashing by as much as 18C below the seasonal norm.

Record summer lows are expected, an unbiased media would report on them (not holding my breath).

Russia

Extreme cold grips Siberia, as temperatures fall to lowest levels since 2002

The coldest air on Earth plunged into Siberia this week, dropping temperatures to as low as 80 degrees Fahrenheit below zero. An expansion of that cold is expected across eastern Asia into early next week and eventually North America, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

The bitter cold not only allowed temperature benchmarks that have not been hit in decades in some parts of Russia, but the extreme weather also created an icy spectacle as firefighters battled a fire in subzero temperatures on Jan. 8 in Ufa, Russia. Massive icicles clung to the home amid the anomalous cold.

The same Arctic blast dropped temperatures in Moscow to their lowest levels in years this past weekend, while even parts of northern India will get a taste of the cold beginning later this weekend.

Antarctica

Antarctica Plunges to -83.2C (-117.8F)–Earth’s Lowest Temperature Since 2017

While the media tricks the dumb and the gullible into believing the world is on fire –with poverty-inducing CO2 reductions their only savior– Antarctica is shivering through an extreme bout of cold, even by South Pole standards.

The Italian-French research station ‘Concordia’ posted a reading of -83.2C (-117.8F) on July 25. This ranks as the fifth coldest daily value in the operational life of the station, bested only by Aug 2010’s -84.7C; July 2010’s -84.6C; and June 2017’s -83.9C and -83.5C.

As discussed recently, Antarctic sea ice’s tough time of it in 2023 isn’t related to temperature, that correlation simply doesn’t exist. The Antarctic continent continues to cool, the data are very clear on that, yet ice is taking a proverbial beating this season.

South America

Fierce frosts have gripped areas of Argentina and Chile

Some of that aforementioned Antarctic cold has been spun northward over Southern Hemisphere land masses.

Fierce frosts have gripped areas of Argentina and Chile of late, as South America’s topsy–turvy ‘meridional jet stream‘-fueled winter drags on. Looking ahead, more of the same is on the cards, too, as we head into August:

Southern Africa

Southern Africa Freezes, Rare Snowfall Hits Johannesburg

Southern Africa is enduring fierce freeze this week as a blast of polar air engulfs the likes of SA, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, as well as Angola, Zambia and Malawi.

Coastal regions are struggling to climb above 10C (50F), while at higher-elevations and inland, frosts are proving widespread, with reports of rare snowfall coming out of some unusual spots such as Zimbabwe and South Africa, such as Johannesburg.

Several regions of South Africa are enduring a harsh winter this year, according to local media outlets, with this past weekend delivering an intensification. Sub-zero (C) lows struck Johannesburg and surrounding areas over the past few mornings, with daytime highs of just 4C (39.2F) noted–where the July average is closer to 17C (62.6F).

Temperatures also held low enough to keep the snow lying on the ground throughout the morning, bringing joyous scenes to many a school playground — this would have been the first time many children have seen snow (Prof David Viner take note).

Footnote:  Climate is Dynamic: Hot Today, Cold Tomorrow

And the same goes for precipitation:

 

 

 

 

So Many Global Parts Not Boiling

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Australia

Why Is It So Cold Right Now? A Weather Expert Explains

Temperatures plummeted across southeast Australia this week, with Weatherzone reporting Canberra’s low of -7.2ºC was “its lowest temperature since 2018 and the lowest for June since 1986.”

Sydney experienced its coldest June morning today since 2010, with a temperature of 5.2ºC. In Victoria, temperatures of -7.2ºC were recorded.

Australia just had one of its coolest and wettest summers of the last decade. 

Snow settled on the Stirling Range in WA on Thursday morning after a frigid polar air mass travelled from Antarctica to Australia.

A long fetch of southerly winds has been blowing across the Southern Ocean during the past week, carrying polar air from the ice sheets of Antarctica into unusually low latitudes.

On Thursday morning, this Antarctic air mass reached the Stirling Range in WA and caused snow to settle on Bluff Knoll.

United Kingdom

Met Office explains why the weather is so miserable this May

‘High-pressure systems have been generally located over southern continental Europe and also to the far east of Europe’, they told Metro.co.uk.

The spokesperson continued: ‘As these high-pressure systems interacted through the season, the UK is positioned between them, leading to periods of cool, cloudy, and wet conditions for the UK.  ‘These have generally either swept in from the Atlantic or slipped between the high-pressure systems to reach the UK.

‘Warmer-than-average sea temperatures also provided the necessary fuel for clouds to develop, which has been quite persistent in spring.’

Met Office meteorologist Clare Nasir said: ‘Showers over the next few days could be heavy with the risk of thunder and hail.’   She added that the risk of thunder and hail persist through Wednesday and Thursday.

Where has the UK summer gone

Summer 2023 so far has been one of contrasts – after the warmest June on record we had an exceptionally wet July.  Northern Ireland and much of north-west England had their wettest July on record. Looking ahead there is no immediate end to the distinctly un-summery conditions. So what is going on?

Any spring warmth was hard to come by. After a cool April, very warm weather was distinctly lacking in May. Nowhere reached 24°C until the month was nearly over, on the 27th.

However, that theme changed dramatically in June. Temperatures soared to 32.2°C, with a heatwave being declared in many places and becoming the warmest June on record which, according to the Met Office, bears the “fingerprint of climate change”.

It was all change again in early July with low pressure setting in, and staying put. While much of Europe sweltered in a blistering heatwave the UK sat under cool, wet weather which looks set to stay for the first part of August too.

India

Is January 2023 going to be the coldest year in the 21st century?

There may be no relief from the ongoing spell of cold wave with minimum temperatures hovering below normal limits at most places, reports suggested. If a weather expert is believed, it has been predicted that temperatures in the plains are going to dip as far as -4 degrees Celsius next week.

Large parts of north India are still reeling under numbing cold with the mercury remaining below freezing point at most places in Jammu and Kashmir, while dense fog in the early hours of the morning hit road and rail traffic movement. Cold wave conditions abated in Delhi due to a fresh western disturbance affecting northwest India, even as a dense layer of fog lowered visibility to just 50 metres.

Northern India braces for coldest weather in years as dense fog, poor air quality linger

A new wave of cold weather is headed into northern India and could drop temperatures to levels not seen there in over three years, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

The cold weather shot will be the latest, and perhaps most significant, of many recent waves of chilly weather that have also led to travel-disrupting dense fog and poor air quality over parts of the Indian subcontinent since late December.

The temperature in New Delhi, the capital city of India and home to more than 18 million people, has the potential to drop as low as 2 degrees Celsius (35 degrees Fahrenheit) on Sunday night and Monday morning. While the record low for this coming Monday of 1.3 degrees Celsius below zero (29.7 degrees Fahrenheit) appears safe, it will be well below the average low of 6 degrees Celsius (42 degrees Fahrenheit) for the date.

Temperatures at this level would be the coldest readings in New Delhi since December 2019,” said Nicholls.

Ahead of the cold wave, the IMD has issued a cold wave warning for Sunday and Monday for the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan. The warning was issued to give residents advance notice of a level of cold that could adversely impact human health and property.

Canada

Spring forecast 2023: The La Nina Winter pattern is forecast to extend as we head into Spring despite the breakdown of the cold ocean anomalies

Spring season 2023 is nearing, with forecasts revealing the jet stream pattern over the North Pacific and the Atlantic to be influenced by the diminishing La Nina. A high-pressure system in the Pacific will define the weather patterns over North America, with a potential Stratospheric warming event playing a role early in the season.

The cold ocean phase in the equatorial Pacific is already in breakdown mode. It is expected to decline rapidly towards early Spring.

But, despite the breakdown of these cold ocean anomalies (La Nina), its influence can still persist in global weather circulation. Long-range weather calculations also see this, extending the La Nina jet stream pattern from Winter into Spring 2023.

Spring sits on the sidelines with Winter’s wild ride to the finish line

USA

Winter Forecast 2024: The Brrr Is Back

The Brrr is Back!
“After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice—especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and northern New England areas,” shares editor Pete Geiger, adding “the ‘brrr’ is coming back! We expect more snow and low temperatures nationwide.”

East Coast Snow?
Folks living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with.

Texans Beware!
According to Farmers’ Almanac 2024, Texans should prepare for an unseasonably cold and stormy winter season ahead

Frosts in Florida?
Winter will be wet in the Southeast region however a few frosts are forecast to bring the “brrrs” to Floridians and its snowbirds.

Asia

As Asian countries hit by extreme cold snap, here’s what life is like at -53C

An intense cold spell is gripping east Asia, with temperatures plunging and hazardous conditions reported across China, the Koreas and Japan.

On Monday one of China’s northern-most cities broke its lowest ever recorded temperature, with the mercury hitting -53C at 7am on the first day of the Lunar New Year in Mohe, Heilongjiang province.

Japan and the Korean peninsula have also issued warnings over freezing temperatures and gales that have killed at least one person, while at least 57 people have been reported dead in Afghanistan as the wintry conditions stretch across into central Asia.

Europe

Record-Challenging Cold Sweeps Europe

It’s been cold — ask a European, ask me…

We’ve enjoyed a ‘comfortably cool’ July here in Central Portugal (thus far), it’s been great. Same with my old haunt, the UK. July 2023 there is on course to be colder-than-average–and vs the historically cool 1961-1990 era that the Met Office still insist on using, no less.

Looking ahead, and particularly at central/eastern nations, those summer chills are about to take another step down.

As per the latest GFS run (shown below), ‘pinks’ and ‘purples’ are forecast to engulf the likes of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Albania, Belarus, Ukraine and Romania this week, sending temperatures crashing by as much as 18C below the seasonal norm.

Record summer lows are expected, an unbiased media would report on them (not holding my breath).

Russia

Extreme cold grips Siberia, as temperatures fall to lowest levels since 2002

The coldest air on Earth plunged into Siberia this week, dropping temperatures to as low as 80 degrees Fahrenheit below zero. An expansion of that cold is expected across eastern Asia into early next week and eventually North America, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

The bitter cold not only allowed temperature benchmarks that have not been hit in decades in some parts of Russia, but the extreme weather also created an icy spectacle as firefighters battled a fire in subzero temperatures on Jan. 8 in Ufa, Russia. Massive icicles clung to the home amid the anomalous cold.

The same Arctic blast dropped temperatures in Moscow to their lowest levels in years this past weekend, while even parts of northern India will get a taste of the cold beginning later this weekend.

Antarctica

Antarctica Plunges to -83.2C (-117.8F)–Earth’s Lowest Temperature Since 2017

While the media tricks the dumb and the gullible into believing the world is on fire –with poverty-inducing CO2 reductions their only savior– Antarctica is shivering through an extreme bout of cold, even by South Pole standards.

The Italian-French research station ‘Concordia’ posted a reading of -83.2C (-117.8F) on July 25. This ranks as the fifth coldest daily value in the operational life of the station, bested only by Aug 2010’s -84.7C; July 2010’s -84.6C; and June 2017’s -83.9C and -83.5C.

As discussed recently, Antarctic sea ice’s tough time of it in 2023 isn’t related to temperature, that correlation simply doesn’t exist. The Antarctic continent continues to cool, the data are very clear on that, yet ice is taking a proverbial beating this season.

South America

Fierce frosts have gripped areas of Argentina and Chile

Some of that aforementioned Antarctic cold has been spun northward over Southern Hemisphere land masses.

Fierce frosts have gripped areas of Argentina and Chile of late, as South America’s topsy–turvy ‘meridional jet stream‘-fueled winter drags on. Looking ahead, more of the same is on the cards, too, as we head into August:

Southern Africa

Southern Africa Freezes, Rare Snowfall Hits Johannesburg

Southern Africa is enduring fierce freeze this week as a blast of polar air engulfs the likes of SA, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, as well as Angola, Zambia and Malawi.

Coastal regions are struggling to climb above 10C (50F), while at higher-elevations and inland, frosts are proving widespread, with reports of rare snowfall coming out of some unusual spots such as Zimbabwe and South Africa, such as Johannesburg.

Several regions of South Africa are enduring a harsh winter this year, according to local media outlets, with this past weekend delivering an intensification. Sub-zero (C) lows struck Johannesburg and surrounding areas over the past few mornings, with daytime highs of just 4C (39.2F) noted–where the July average is closer to 17C (62.6F).

Temperatures also held low enough to keep the snow lying on the ground throughout the morning, bringing joyous scenes to many a school playground — this would have been the first time many children have seen snow (Prof David Viner take note).

 

 

Arctic Ice Surplus End July 2023

Posted on by Ron Clutz

The animation above shows the Arctic sea ice extent on day 212 (end of July) from 2007 to yesterday 2023. Unsurprisingly the distribution varies, most notably there being less open water 2023 along the Russian shelf seas on the left side.  OTOH, Hudson Bay in most years still has some ice, but this year not.  Overall, Arctic ice this year is in surplus to the 17-year average and to 2007.

The graph above shows the July monthly average ice extent for the last 17 years for both MASIE and SII datasets.  Most years SII is slightly lower with the MASIE average at 8.279M km2 and SII at 8.033 (not shown).  Note that 2007 was near the lowest in the period and 2023 among the highest.

The graph for the last 30 days shows the normal melt is 2.7M km2 down to 6.9M km2.  2023 was tracking average for 2 weeks, and well above average after that.  SII tracked the MASIE average throughout, and sllghtly lower the second half. 2007 was average mid-July, but dropped much lower toward the end.

The table for day 212 shows how the ice extent is distributed across the Arctic regions, in comparison to 17 year average and 2007.  2023 was ~300k km2 above average, or 4% of total extent.

Region 2023212 Day 212 Average 2023-Ave. 2007212 2023-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 7232358 6936889  295469  6344860 887498 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 723443 799968  -76525  760576 -37133 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 659025 540756  118269  382350 276675 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 675190 756025  -80835  445385 229805 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 474071 371485  102587  314382 159689 
 (5) Kara_Sea 265568 161953  103615  239232 26336 
 (6) Barents_Sea 54417 29804  24612  23703 30714 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 328529 296824  31705  324737 3792 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 243516 144525  98991  94179 149337 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 514780 555079  -40299  510063 4717 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 79485 143888  -64403  93655 -14170 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3213192 3134907  78285  3154837 58355 

The table shows earlier than average melting in Beaufort and East Siberian seas and Hudson Bay.  Surpluses are everywhere else, especially in Chukchi, Laptev and Kara Seas, as well as Baffin Bay and Central Arctic.  2007 was nearly a full Wadham less than 2023 yesterday.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.

Ocean Warming Mystery: Two Natural Factors

Posted on by Ron Clutz

Many have seen the media news splash of ocean warming.  For example, from Washington Post Scientists are baffled why the oceans are warming so fast.  The image above comes from that article, excerpts below with my added bolds.

A steady and remarkable rise in average global ocean temperatures this year is now outpacing anything seen in four decades of satellite observations, causing many scientists to suddenly blare alarm over the risks and realities of climate change. But even those typically aligned on climate science can’t agree on what, exactly, triggered such rapid warming and how alarmed they should be.

Some climate researchers suspect that a drastic reduction in air pollution from ships has allowed more sunlight to radiate into oceans, a conclusion others vigorously criticize. Meteorologists also say a weakening of Atlantic winds may be encouraging warming; normally these winds help cool waters and carry sun-blocking plumes of Saharan dust.

Scientists nonetheless agree on this: Conditions are ever ripening for extreme heat waves, droughts, floods and storms, all of which have proven links to ocean warming.

In the Pacific Ocean, warming temperatures are to be expected during El Niño — its impacts on weather around the world stem from warmer-than-normal surface waters along the equatorial Pacific. But the extreme warmth extends beyond the Pacific. Record warmth is also occurring in the equatorial and northern Atlantic — and in the tropics, where hurricanes form.

“This is totally bonkers and people who look at this stuff routinely can’t believe their eyes,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, wrote on Twitter. “Something very weird is happening.”

Antarctic sea ice concentration on June 27, 2023, with white representing solid ice and dark blue representing open ocean. The median ice edge for 1981–2010 is drawn in orange. (Credit: Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center)

And of course there is the added warning about Antarctic sea ice not freezing as rapidly as usual in SH winter.  The media always refers to “climate change” as the causal factor, which is code for rising CO2 and humans to blame.  For a more reasonable discussion, see Antarctic Sea Ice Varies, It’s Complicated.

What About Natural Factors?

Because the power, glory and money comes from CO2 hysteria and taking over the energy industry, the theories are all about the atmosphere.  Realists know that Oceans Make Climate, and look for more direct means by which sea temperatures can warm.

The HadSST4 AMO dataset was finally updated and showed dramatic 2023 warming in the North Atlantic. Let’s consider two possibilities.

1.  The Ocean Warming Could Be Bottom Up

An article from CICOS explains the importance of hydrothermal action on the ocean floor.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.  Scientists Discover Three New Hydrothermal Vent Fields on Mid-Atlantic Ridge

An international team of scientists led by CICOES researcher David Butterfield
work together to rapidly find and explore large hydrothermal vents
on the world’s longest mountain range.

Sometimes Mid-Atlantic ridge is called the “40,000-mile Volcano”

Scientists have discovered three new hydrothermal vent fields over a 434-mile-long stretch of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge during the first scientific expedition aboard Schmidt Ocean Institute’s recently launched research vessel Falkor (too).

The multidisciplinary science team representing 11 institutions from the United States, Canada, and France used advanced ocean technologies to make the discovery. Scientists used autonomous and remotely operated underwater vehicles resulting in 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) of seafloor mapped at one-meter scale resolution, an area approximately the size of Manhattan Island.

The discovery of the active hydrothermal vents is the first on this section of the world’s longest underwater mountain range, the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, in more than 40 years. One of the discovered vent fields was located at the Puy des Folles volcano and has five active sites over 6.95 square miles (18 square kilometers). High-temperature ‘black smoker’ vents were also found at the Grappe Deux vent system and Kane Fracture Zone.

This discovery of new hydrothermal vents under the Atlantic ocean reminds of hundreds of thousands of sea mounts active on the ocean floor, with a high concentration in the North Atlantic  For a more complete discussion of bottom up ocean warming, See Post:

Overview: Seafloor Eruptions and Ocean Warming

 

2. It May Be the Aftermath of Hunga Tonga Eruption 2022

Khaykin et al. (2023) explan the climate impact in their article Global perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The eruption of the submarine Hunga volcano in January 2022 was associated with a powerful blast that injected volcanic material to altitudes up to 58 km. From a combination of various types of satellite and ground-based observations supported by transport modeling, we show evidence for an unprecedented increase in the global stratospheric water mass by 13% relative to climatological levels, and a 5-fold increase of stratospheric aerosol load, the highest in the last three decades. Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume circumnavigated the Earth in only 1 week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months.The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.

The perturbation of stratospheric water vapour burden by 13% is tremendous and has no frame of comparison in the entire observation record dating back to 1985. As there are no efficient sinks of water vapour in the stratosphere, this perturbation is expected to last over several years. Indeed, in 9 months since the eruption, the water vapour mass anomaly has gradually decreased only by 2.5% (4.3 ± 0.1% annual rate), which should lead to the perturbation timescale of over 3 years, assuming the further linear decay trend. The persistent stratospheric moist anomaly may lead to changes in atmospheric radiative balance; stratospheric dynamics as well as amplification of the polar ozone depletion through wider occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds. The ability to assess the longer-term impacts of the HT eruption on stratospheric chemistry will depend strongly on the quality and availability of global satellite observations such as MLS in the coming years.

In addition to blasting seawater to the stratosphere, the event shook the ocean floor worldwide.  

The massive volcanic blast in the Pacific last year was felt 18,000km away on the other side of the world, on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean.  The cataclysmic eruption of Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai on 15 January 2022 sent pressure waves through Earth’s atmosphere that connected with the sea surface and triggered 50 highly sensitive seismometers placed 5,000m under water on the seabed.  It was one of a number of intriguing phenomena picked up by the instrument network in the Azores-Madeira-Canary Islands region. Source:  BBC

Summary

Let’s stop pretending we can alter nature by spending trillions of dollars “fighting climate change.”  Better to solve actual problems we are causing and can fix, rather than obsessing over imaginary ones.