In July, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) starts to open for commercial shipping. As previously reported here Arctic Ice Takes Revenge, a convoy of Russian cargo ships including icebreakers were trapped by January ice and were stranded in Pevek. May 30 they were able to leave port, but making it home to Arkhangelsk is still uncertain since plenty of ice remains in Eastern Siberian and Laptev seas.

More about the NSR shipping situation at the end of this post.

The image below shows the evolution of ice extents since 2007 along the Northern Sea Route.  The principal challenge for shipping is Laptev sea, and secondarily East Siberian and Kara seas.

The graph below shows Arctic ice extents comparing 2017 to the eleven-year average, to 2016 and 2007, as well as SII estimates.

This year ice extents are ~200k km2 higher than average at day 208, 660k km2 greater than 2016, and 760k km2 surplus above 2007.  MASIE, with its higher resolution mapping shows 600k km2 more ice than Sea Ice Index (SII).

The table below presents the ice extents in various regions of the Arctic Ocean.

Region	2017208	Day 208 Average	2017-Ave.	2007208	2017-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	7616280	7412179	204101	6854322	761958
(1) Beaufort_Sea	817086	800703	16383	731315	85771
(2) Chukchi_Sea	501448	576407	-74959	410291	91157
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	655273	859194	-203922	611838	43435
(4) Laptev_Sea	595803	493098	102705	346484	249320
(5) Kara_Sea	234885	216677	18208	263819	-28935
(6) Barents_Sea	74162	33989	40173	38450	35713
(7) Greenland_Sea	429112	337523	91590	350141	78971
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	351594	169554	182040	226232	125362
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	584766	603827	-19062	585307	-542
(10) Hudson_Bay	153623	172129	-18506	114225	39398
(11) Central_Arctic	3217386	3146830	70556	3174877	42508

The only sizeable 2017 deficits to decadal average are in Chukchi and East Siberian seas.  Ice surpluses this year offset the losses, especially in Laptev, Greenland Sea, Baffin Bay and the Central Arctic.  Barents has been holding steady at the highest minimum of the decade, set by 2014.  2007 is eclipsed by 2017 in almost every region.

Varying Views of the Northern Sea Route

Northern Sea Route Information Office

According to the data provided by the Northern Sea Route Information Office, traffic volume in 2016 has increased by 35% in comparison with 2015. However the traffic remained low with only 19 vessels using the route, far from the record set in 2013 with 71 vessels. Steep downturn started in 2014, the amount of cargo transported in transit dropping 77 per cent compared to the previous year.

The navigation season for transit passages on NSR starts approximately at the beginning of July and lasts through to the second half of November. There are no specific dates for commencement and completion of navigation; it all depends on particular ice conditions. In 2011 the navigation season on the NSR seaways for large vessels constituted 141 days in total, i.e. more than 4.5 months. In recent years quite easy ice conditions have been observed and that offers more considerable opportunities for operation at the NSR seaways. All NSR seaways are currently located in the area of one-year ice. In the arctic conditions one-year ice grows approximately up to 1.6 metres. Arktika-type icebreaker can open passages through up to 2.3m thick ice. In early July, at the beginning of navigation ice is not pressurized. The ice is broken and easily moved through. . . Therefore, in the current ice conditions vessels can navigate from July until December.

Malte Humpert, the strategic director and founder of the Arctic Institute

The NSR will not become a major shipping route. Not today and not in 2030 – or even 2050. As long as there is winter ice, which makes the Arctic Ocean unnavigable for part of the year, it will not be suitable for regular transit traffic.

There may be occasional voyages, as we have seen over the past few years, delivering timber from Finland to Canada, or Norwegian fish and LNG to Japan or iron ore to China. But the NSR will not see containerized cargo on which global trade operates. There are a host of reasons for that, the biggest ones being lack of schedule reliability and seasonability of the route, lack of ports of call and increased insurance premiums on the NSR over Suez.

As a comparison: the Suez Canal sees around 18,000 transits per year, the Panama Canal around 15,000, the Straits of Malacca around 65,000.

In the past five years taken together, the NSR saw around 200 transits, with most vessels being tiny compared to the giant container ships and bulk carriers passing through the world’s shipping hubs.

The 259 meters long, 34 meter wide «Shturman Albanov» in early May arrived in Murmansk with another load of oil from Novy Port, the new oil field in the Yamal Peninsula. It marked the 5th million ton of oil delivered from the field, operator Gazprom Neft informs.

In the course of the last 12 months, a total of 196 shiploads of oil have made from Yamal to Murmansk. Shipping company Sovcomflot now has three brand new Arc7 ice class tankers dedicated to shipments from the new Arctic field.

 

July is showing again the resilience of Arctic ice this year. The graph below shows 2017 extents for the first 19 days of July compared to the average for the previous 11 years, to 2016, to 2007 and the SII (Sea Ice Index) estimates for 2017.

The graph shows 2017 holding to the decadal average and just yesterday dropping below 8M km2, one day ahead of average.  Meanwhile the other extents are much lower than 2017: 2016 is down 357k km2, 2007 is 379k km2 down, and SII shows 2017 480k km2 less than MASIE day 200.

As we shall see, this year’s extents are in surplus on the Atlantic side, offset by deficits on the Pacific side and in Hudson Bay.  The image shows the evolution of Arctic ice from 2007 to this year for day 200.

The Table compares 2017 day 200 ice extents with the decadal average and 2007

Region	2017200	Day 200 Average	2017-Ave.	2007200	2017-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	7997823	8064957	-67133	7618029	379795
(1) Beaufort_Sea	806596	819503	-12906	797272	9324
(2) Chukchi_Sea	514591	619294	-104704	488952	25638
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	744800	937942	-193142	707353	37447
(4) Laptev_Sea	666317	584009	82308	455463	210854
(5) Kara_Sea	321934	310630	11304	377648	-55714
(6) Barents_Sea	74053	45893	28160	55933	18120
(7) Greenland_Sea	478308	388587	89721	375816	102492
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	371429	238537	132893	278443	92986
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	624373	685089	-60717	686749	-62376
(10) Hudson_Bay	172045	258697	-86652	170690	1355
(11) Central_Arctic	3222235	3173093	49143	3221912	323

2007 overall ice extent on day 200 was lower by 380k km2, 2017 showing surpluses everywhere except Kara and CAA (Canadian Arctic Archipelago).  Compared to the decadal average, the 2017 larger deficits are in the Pacific ( Chukchi and East Siberian) and in Canada (Hudson Bay and CAA).  These are offset by above average extents elsewhere, especially in Laptev, Greenland, Baffin and Central Arctic. Barents is still surplus to average, but has now fallen behind 2014 as the highest in the last decade.

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears close to an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014 before falling behind just recently.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

 

The extent of Arctic ice fell to a new wintertime low in March 2017. But springtime ice persisted and June and July are hanging around the decadal average.

The graph shows the last two weeks ending day 190, July 9, 2017.  2016 and 2017 are nearly average and lower than 9M km2, while 2007 is about 150k km2 down, and SII 2017 even lower. The recent drop was largely due to Hudson Bay going to open water in just ten days (images at Ten Days in Hudson Bay).

As we shall see, this year’s extents are in surplus on the Atlantic side, offset by deficits on the Pacific side and in Hudson Bay.  The image compares day 190 with one year ago.

The Table compares 2017 day 190 ice extents with the decadal average and 2007

Region	2017190	Day 190 Average	2017-Ave.	2007190	2017-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	8877716	8991896	-114181	8732146	145570
(1) Beaufort_Sea	825960	866156	-40196	860404	-34443
(2) Chukchi_Sea	563718	683345	-119626	609005	-45287
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	868691	1000309	-131618	871751	-3060
(4) Laptev_Sea	719324	674515	44809	647038	72285
(5) Kara_Sea	538340	437243	101097	499369	38971
(6) Barents_Sea	125872	69548	56324	77180	48692
(7) Greenland_Sea	563021	450768	112253	475611	87410
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	419134	364194	54941	379529	39606
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	702592	750592	-48000	743621	-41030
(10) Hudson_Bay	306542	499414	-192873	360041	-53499
(11) Central_Arctic	3243319	3183825	59494	3205488	37831

The deficits in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian) are offset by surpluses elsewhere.  2017 would be above average were it not for the 193k km2 deficit in Hudson Bay.

The graph below shows Barents this year continues to be above average matching the record year of 2014.  It will be interesting to see if 2017 hits its minimum around day 210 like 2014 did.

 

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears close to an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014.  It may yet beat out 2014 as the highest in the last 11 years.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

 

The extent of Arctic ice fell to a new wintertime low in March 2017. But springtime ice persisted and in June is hanging around the decadal average.

The first half of June this year’s extent was above the decadal average despite early melting in Bering and Okhotsk Seas,  Those two Pacific basins are now ice-free, typical for end of June.  Presently 2017 is tied with 2016 and 2007 about 200k km2 below average.  The recent drop was largely due to Hudson Bay going to open water in just ten days (images at Ten Days in Hudson Bay).

For the month, average extent in 2017 was 11M km2 compared to the the decadal average of 10.9M km2, ranking this year fifth since 2006.  SII 2017 average for June was 10.7M km2 and is presently showing 200k km2 less ice than MASIE does with its higher resolution.  During June more than 2M km2 ice extent was lost and presently stands at 65% of the March maximum.

The Table compares 2017 day 181 ice extents with the decadal average and 2007.

Region	2017181	Day 181 Average	2017-Ave.	2007181	2017-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	9620537	9846173	-225636	9672969	-52433
(1) Beaufort_Sea	855383	920779	-65397	939209	-83826
(2) Chukchi_Sea	614011	743161	-129151	670088	-56077
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	926510	1029639	-103129	901963	24547
(4) Laptev_Sea	788796	734392	54403	658742	130053
(5) Kara_Sea	585573	563477	22096	657478	-71904
(6) Barents_Sea	177110	112663	64447	130101	47010
(7) Greenland_Sea	575056	518393	56663	548399	26657
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	489797	497536	-7739	450461	39336
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	775934	777916	-1982	773611	2323
(10) Hudson_Bay	585228	705394	-120166	718441	-133212
(11) Central_Arctic	3245272	3210630	34642	3218999	26273
(12) Bering_Sea	0	11808	-11808	981	-981
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	6	-6	0	0
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	695	18917	-18222	2983	-2288

The pattern continues with seas on the Pacific side showing deficits to average, while Atlantic Arctic seas show surpluses.  Bering and Okhotsk averages are still 30k km2 higher but will soon disappear.  The noticeable deficits are in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) and in Hudson Bay.

Barents Sea demonstrates the surplus of 2017 sea ice extents inside the Arctic Circle.  The graph below shows Barents this year continues to be above average matching the record year of 2014.

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears close to an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014.  It may yet beat out 2014 as the highest in the last 11 years.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

 

Hudson Bay is providing a great example how ice extents can change dramatically in such a relatively shallow basin near the Arctic circle.  Last December 2016 some concerns were expressed about the lack of ice in Hudson Bay, which were suddenly overcome in ten days starting December 9.  Watch:

Polar bears of course were delighted to have a white Christmas.

Now fast-forward to this spring 2017 when ice was persisting strongly in both Baffin and Hudson Bays. Starting ten days ago on June 18 Summer is showing us how quickly goes the opposite effect, including  a major meltdown the last two days.  On the right side you can see Newfoundlanders are finally rid of their ice.

For the record, Hudson Bay grew 663k km2 of ice in ten December days, and it lost 474k km2 of ice in these last ten days of June.

Don’t worry about the polar bears, they also love to swim.

There is no predicting the Arctic ice situation week in and out, though many are trying.  The polar bears adapt and so shall we.  Meanwhile, it is a joy watching to see what happens.

Three weeks into June, Arctic ice is still plentiful  The graph below show ice extents up to yesterday, June 23, 2017, day 174.

After a dip, 2017 is again above the decadal average, 300k km2 greater than 2007, and 500k km2 larger than 2016.  SII 2017 is presently showing 400k km2 less ice than MASIE does with its higher resolution.  2016 went below 10M km2 for the first time on its way to an annual minimum of 4.2M in September.

Barents Sea shows a surplus of 2017 sea ice extents inside the Arctic Circle.  The graph below shows Barents this year compared to average and other years.

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears close to an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014.  It may yet beat out 2014 as the highest in the last 11 years.

What a difference a year makes.

The table below shows day 174 ice extents in total and by regions for 2017 compared to the decadal average and 2007.

Region	2017174	Day 174 Average	2017-Ave.	2007174	2017-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10526281	10452265	74016	10222886	303395
(1) Beaufort_Sea	879223	950985	-71762	937004	-57781
(2) Chukchi_Sea	654738	779757	-125019	702860	-48122
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	995761	1050504	-54742	991145	4616
(4) Laptev_Sea	802192	761406	40785	698410	103781
(5) Kara_Sea	684120	650542	33578	687443	-3323
(6) Barents_Sea	223133	150741	72392	206816	16317
(7) Greenland_Sea	558685	549299	9386	549654	9031
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	713168	627004	86164	624502	88666
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	788679	790846	-2167	780041	8637
(10) Hudson_Bay	961113	880059	81054	810482	150632
(11) Central_Arctic	3245726	3213273	32452	3219126	26599
(12) Bering_Sea	3489	21931	-18442	5743	-2254
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	9	-9	0	0
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	15063	24399	-9335	7983	7080

You can see that Pacific melting is producing deficits to average that are more than offset by surpluses elsewhere.  Bering and Okhotsk started first, but are now inconsequential.  BCE ( Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian) combined are about 250k km2  below average.  On the Atlantic side, the largest surpluses appear in Barents, Baffin and Hudson Bay, while the Central Arctic is still at its annual maximum.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

Meanwhile, some Newfoundland harbours are still full of ice.

 

Icebreaker CCGS Amundsen diverted from science mission, continues search and rescue work

CBC June 12, 2017
Environment and Climate Change Canada said ice conditions improved slightly on Monday in the Strait of Belle Isle but continue to be troubling off the northeast coast of Newfoundland, which is seeing a higher than normal concentration of ice.

“Typically there would be very little or no ice left in either of these areas at this time of year, let alone the thick ice pack we are currently seeing off the northeast coast of Newfoundland,” a spokesperson for the federal department said in an email.

PolarBearScience described how the ice situation was not a matter of climate change but developed this spring caused by winds, cold temperatures and icebergs.

The tour (record of reports) is illuminating because it shows the development of the thick ice over time and shows how strong winds from a May storm combined with an extensive iceberg field contributed to the current situation. . .By 11 June the ice charts show little ice off southern Labrador but thick first year ice but lots of “old ice” in many places around northern Newfoundland. These must be crushed or compressed icebergs incorporated into the thick first year pack ice.

The image above shows the icing pattern on the European side. beyond Canada.  Compared to 2016, Svalbard  and Franz Joseph Land coastlines are much more enclosed.  Along the Russian coast of Kara, the water is opening up sooner. The graph below shows the first 14 days of June.  2017 was holding a lead of  200k km2 above average and 2007, and much greater than 2016.  Yesterday 2017 extent dropped 270k km2 to erase the lead at this time.

The graph below excludes the Pacific seas of Okhotsk and Barents, which are melting early (~70k km2 below average as of yesterday) somewhat obscuring what is happening in central and Atlantic Arctic seas.

On this basis, 2017 is matching both average and 2007, and about 200k km2 more than 2016.

Barents Sea shows how unusual are 2017 sea ice extents inside the Arctic Circle.  The graph below shows Barents this year compared to average and other years.

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears as an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and is still persisting to exceed even 2014.

The table below shows extents on day 165 in the various Northern seas where ice is found.

Region	2017165	Day 165 Average	2017-Ave.	2007165	2017-2007
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10928458	11000746	-72289	10959202	-30745
(1) Beaufort_Sea	935191	975491	-40301	952869	-17678
(2) Chukchi_Sea	682164	821629	-139465	770182	-88018
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	999972	1058898	-58926	1040890	-40918
(4) Laptev_Sea	823309	788892	34417	755629	67680
(5) Kara_Sea	656401	731264	-74864	770755	-114355
(6) Barents_Sea	289358	208784	80574	264253	25105
(7) Greenland_Sea	586915	577208	9707	574726	12189
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	826222	728139	98083	778469	47753
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	810834	796994	13841	781578	29256
(10) Hudson_Bay	1053785	995845	57940	997061	56724
(11) Central_Arctic	3232751	3219736	13015	3224700	8051
(12) Bering_Sea	13160	51203	-38043	15285	-2126
(13) Baltic_Sea	0	9	-9	0	0
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	17207	45161	-27955	31131	-13924

The difference between 2017 and average is matched by the early losses in Bering and Okhotsk.  Otherwise, there are some early meltings in BCE (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian) and Kara, offset by surpluses everywhere else.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

 

Thick Arctic ice pack traps boats, triggers rescue operation off Newfoundland

Unusually heavy Arctic pack ice has trapped multiple vessels, stymied the fishing season and triggered a high-stakes rescue operation from a sinking ship off Newfoundland.

Trevor Hodgson, the Canadian Coast Guard’s superintendent of ice operations for the Atlantic region, said the heavy ice is more than two metres thick in some areas off the province’s northeast coast.

What’s unusual this year, Hodgson said, is the way the winds have pushed the thick pack ice towards land rather than out to sea.

He said ice conditions are so bad the Coast Guard has been unable to free trapped vessels with its icebreaker Amundsen. Three fishing vessels remain trapped in ice off northeastern Newfoundland.

The image above shows Arctic Atlantic sea ice continues to hold most of the coastline in its grip.  Svalbard is still mostly enclosed and Newfoundland upper left with packed ice as in the photo. The graph below shows the last 10 days with 2017 holding a lead of  260k km2 above average, 320k km2 more than 2007 and 900k km2 greater than 2016.

The graph below excludes the Pacific seas of Okhotsk and Barents, which are melting early (~100k km2 below average as of yesterday) obscuring what is happening in central and Atlantic Arctic seas.

On this basis, 2017 is running 400k km2 higher than both average and 2007, and the same 900k km2 more than 2016.

Barents Sea shows how unusual are 2017 sea ice extents inside the Arctic Circle.  The graph below shows Barents this year compared to average and other years.

The black line is average for the last 11 years.  2007 in purple appears as an average year.  2014 had the highest annual extent in Barents Sea, due to higher and later maximums, holding onto ice during the summer, and recovering quickly.  In contrast, 2016 was the lowest annual extent, melting out early and recovering later.  2017 in blue started out way behind, but grew rapidly to reach average, and then persisted longer to exceed even 2014.

For more on why Barents Sea matters see Barents Icicles

The Iceberg Festival wraps up this weekend.

Weather Canada Iceberg Bulletin
Issued 11:00 AM EDT 2 June 2017

Special ice warning in effect.
Bergy water except 7 tenths of first-year ice including a trace of
old ice in the northern section. Unusual presence of sea ice.

Iceberg Count
More than 100 icebergs

Arctic ice had a remarkable May. The April NH ice extent in April was a 343k km2 deficit below the decadal average, and May ended with a monthly average surplus of 131k km2. The graph below shows in recent weeks how 2017 took a lead of ~300k km2 above average and is holding it entering June.

On June 1, this year’s ice extent is running 280k km2 above average, and a full 1M higher than 2016. Out of the last twelve years, only 2013 and 2014 had more ice on this day than 2017.

The graph below excludes the Pacific seas of Okhotsk and Barents, which are melting early (~150k km2 below average) and distort what is happening in central and Atlantic Arctic seas.

On this basis, 2017 is running 280k km2 higher than 2007, 430k km2 above average, and 910k km2 more than 2016.

Good news for the Iceberg Festival, for the Fishermen not so much.

Twillingate fishery stuck in ice, shrimp plant future uncertain
CBC June 1, 2017:  No boats coming and going through ice-filled harbour

The town hasn’t seen ice last this long for decades, according to Gord Noseworthy, mayor and harbour master. It means many boats can’t get out of Twillingate, and those that do aren’t coming back to the wharf.