Previous posts showed 2022 Arctic Ice broke the 15M km2 ceiling in February, followed by a typical small melt in March.  Climatology refers to the March monthly average ice extent as indicative of the annual maximum Arctic ice extent.  The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007, typically around the SII average of 14.7 M km2.  Of course there are regional differences as described later on.

The animation shows ice extent fluctuations during March 2022. Bering Sea (lower left) gained ice over the month, while ice in Okhotsk (higher left) retreated. At the top Kara and Barents seas lost and then gained ice.  Baffin Bay lower right lost ice during March.  The main changes were Baffin losing ~360k km2 of extent and Okhotsk losing ~260k km2.

The effect on NH total ice extents is presented in the graph below.

The graph above shows ice extent through March comparing 2022 MASIE reports with the 16-year average, other recent years and with SII.  Hovering around 15M km2 the first week, 2022 ice extents dropped sharply mid month, then stabilized and at March end matched the average. Both 2020 and 2021 ended nearly 400k km2 below average. The two green lines at the bottom show average and 2022 extents when Okhotsk ice is excluded.  On this basis 2022 Arctic was nearly 400k km2 in surplus, then declined mid month before ending nearly 200k km2 in surplus to average, except for the ice shortage in Okhotsk.

Region	2022090	Day 90 Average	2022-Ave.	2021090	2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14563095	14616765	-53670	14266634	296461
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1070116	660	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	963906	2100	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1086102	1035	1087137	0
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	896958	887	897827	18
(5) Kara_Sea	935023	918083	16941	935023	0
(6) Barents_Sea	748326	645014	103311	602392	145934
(7) Greenland_Sea	616239	652388	-36148	620574	-4334
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1441014	1400528	40486	1243739	197275
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854685	852982	1703	854597	88
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1254217	6687	1260903	0
(11) Central_Arctic	3245216	3232275	12941	3192844	52373
(12) Bering_Sea	785874	720525	65348	549939	235935
(13) Baltic_Sea	52068	63446	-11377	33543	18525
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	596190	849221	-253031	942085	-345895

The table shows that the large deficit in Okhotsk is only partially offset by surpluses in Bering and Barents Seas.  All other regions show typical extents at end of March

 

April 1st Footnote:

It has been a long hard winter, requiring overtime efforts by Norwegian icebreakers like this one:

In addition, cold March temperatures led to unusual sightings of Northern creatures:

 

A post last month noted that Arctic ice extent in February unusually exceeded 15M km2 (15 Wadhams).  This was despite slower than usual recovery of ice in Sea of Okhotsk.  That early 2022 peak ice extent has passed and will now stand as 2022 annual maximum. One wonders why the large ice deficit in that basin.  The graph below shows the anomaly.

The 2022 cyan line started March above 15M km2, then declined to day 76 (March 17), ~300k km2 lower than the 16 yr. average.  The dark green line shows Arctic ice extent average after Okhotsk is excluded, while the light green is 2022 Arctic extent without Okhotsk. The table below shows that Okhotsk deficit to average on day 76 is 260k km2, almost the entire Arctic deficit.

Region	2022076	Day 76 Average	2022-Ave.	2021076	2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14641084	14935497	-294413	14769906	-128822
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1070247	529	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965877	129	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087107	30	1087120	17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897845	897837	8	897827	18
(5) Kara_Sea	905846	923576	-17730	935006	-29160
(6) Barents_Sea	554036	648194	-94158	849221	-295185
(7) Greenland_Sea	572046	618979	-46934	601423	-29377
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1784542	1534462	250080	1288815	495727
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854685	853020	1665	854597	88
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260691	1258149	2542	1260471	220
(11) Central_Arctic	3153037	3223013	-69976	3222708	-69671
(12) Bering_Sea	729277	755358	-26081	547775	181502
(13) Baltic_Sea	59785	81419	-21634	62626	-2841
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	739183	998164	-258981	1117615	-378432

Most places are close to average, with a large surplus in Baffin Bay offsetting small deficits elsewhere.  The exception is Okhotsk making up most of the total deficit to average, and even a larger deficit to last year

IOW, had Okhotsk extent been average on day 60 (1.08M km2) instead of 852k km2, the surplus would have been even higher.  So why was ice missing in Okhotsk this year?

Firstly, the animation above shows that Okhotsk (and also Bering) sea ice is quite variable year over year. The MASIE record for day 60 shows Okhotsk at 880k km2 in 2006, up to 1230k km2 in 2012, down to 770k km2 in 2015, up to 1080k km2 in 2018, down to  850k km2 in 2022. Notice Okhotsk 2022 is quite similar to 2015, while Bering is about average this year.  What causes these fluctuations on annual, decadal and longer time scales?

The answer illustrates the complexity of natural factors interacting to produce climatic patterns we observe and measure. In Okhotsk in particular, and in the Arctic generally, changes in ice extents are a function of the 3 Ws: Water, Wind and Weather. More specifically, water changes in temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS); wind changes with changes in sea level pressures (SLP); and stormy weather varies between cyclonic and anticyclonic regimes. Below is discussion of these natural mechanisms.

Background on Okhotsk Sea

NASA describes Okhotsk as a Sea and Ice Factory. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

The Sea of Okhotsk is what oceanographers call a marginal sea: a region of a larger ocean basin that is partly enclosed by islands and peninsulas hugging a continental coast. With the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuril Islands, and Sakhalin Island partly sheltering the sea from the Pacific Ocean, and with prevailing, frigid northwesterly winds blowing out from Siberia, the sea is a winter ice factory and a year-round cloud factory.

The region is the lowest latitude (45 degrees at the southern end) where sea ice regularly forms. Ice cover varies from 50 to 90 percent each winter depending on the weather. Ice often persists for nearly six months, typically from October to March. Aside from the cold winds from the Russian interior, the prodigious flow of fresh water from the Amur River freshens the sea, making the surface less saline and more likely to freeze than other seas and bays.

Map of the Sea of Okhotsk with bottom topography. The 200- and 3000-m isobars are indicated by thin and thick solid lines, respectively. A box denotes the enlarged portion in Figure 5. White shading indicates sea-ice area (ice concentration ⩾30%) in February averaged for 2003–11; blue shading indicates open ocean area. Ice concentration from AMSR-E is used. Color shadings indicate cumulative ice production in coastal polynyas during winter (December–March) averaged from the 2002/03 to 2009/10 seasons (modified from Nihashi and others, 2012, 2017). The amount is indicated by the bar scale. Source: Cambridge Core

Basics of Weather and Ice Dynamics

Wind directions are named by which point on the compass the prevailing wind hits you in the face.  Thus, a southerly wind comes from the south toward the north, typically bringing warmer air north, and displacing colder northern air.

Winds arise from differences in surface pressures. Above every square inch on the surface of the Earth is 14.7 pounds of air. That means air exerts 14.7 pounds per square inch (psi) of pressure at Earth’s surface. High in the atmosphere, air pressure decreases.

Pressure varies from day to day at the Earth’s surface – the bottom of the atmosphere. This is, in part, because the Earth is not equally heated by the Sun. Areas where the air is warmed often have lower pressure because the warm air rises. These areas are called low pressure systems. Places where the air pressure is high, are called high pressure systems.

A low pressure system has lower pressure at its center than the areas around it. Winds blow towards the low pressure, and the air rises in the atmosphere where they meet. As the air rises, the water vapor within it condenses, forming clouds and often precipitation. Because of Earth’s spin and the Coriolis effect, winds of a low pressure system swirl counterclockwise north of the equator and clockwise south of the equator. This is called cyclonic flow. On weather maps, a low pressure system is labeled with red L.

A high pressure system has higher pressure at its center than the areas around it. Winds blow away from high pressure. Swirling in the opposite direction from a low pressure system, the winds of a high pressure system rotate clockwise north of the equator and counterclockwise south of the equator. This is called anticyclonic flow. Air from higher in the atmosphere sinks down to fill the space left as air is blown outward. On a weather map, you may notice a blue H, denoting the location of a high pressure system.

When the suns shines on land the air is warmed and rises. And because the earth is rotating, an upward spiral forms. Additionally, over wetlands and the oceans there is evaporation, which also rises, H2O being lighter than N2 or O2. When the water is warmer, the rising air intensifies and resulting in a lower pressure than surrounding areas.  Arctic cyclones disrupt drift ice, creating more open water, and impede freezing.  Arctic anticyclones (HP cells) facilitate cooling and freezing.

The vertical direction of wind motion is typically very small (except in thunderstorm updrafts) compared to the horizontal component, but is very important for determining the day to day weather. Rising air will cool, often to saturation, and can lead to clouds and precipitation. Sinking air warms causing evaporation of clouds and thus fair weather.

The closer the isobars are drawn together the quicker the air pressure changes. This change in air pressure is called the “pressure gradient”. Pressure gradient is just the difference in pressure between high- and low-pressure areas.

The Okhotsk Sea Ice Connection

Toyoda et al. (2022) explain in their paper Sea ice variability along the Okhotsk coast of Hokkaido based on long-term JMA meteorological observatory data.  Excerpts in italics with  my bolds.

Abstract

Long-term sea ice observation data at the Japan Meteorological Agency observatories along the
Okhotsk coast of Hokkaido were analyzed. The observations at the Abashiri Local Meteorological
Observatory largely explained the variations at other sites along much of the Okhotsk coast on a time scale longer than a few days. Interannually, variations of the maximum sea ice areas in the whole and southern Sea of Okhotsk were largely reflected in the yearly accumulated sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice duration variations at the observatories.

A comparison with several indices for the North Pacific climate variability suggested that the North Pacific Index (NPI) is a robust indicator of the recent (after the 1980s) sea ice variations in the Sea of Okhotsk on a decadal time scale. Specifically:

♦  variations in the first sea ice appearance date at the observatories resulted from variations in the Aleutian Low with meridional wind anomalies over the Sea of Okhotsk and the air temperature around Japan in January;

♦  variations in the final disappearance date resulted from the Aleutian Low variations, and,

♦  the resulting sea ice cover variations in the Sea of Okhotsk except for the Siberian coast affected the air temperatures in April. These factors influenced the sea ice duration.

A strong linkage was found between variations in the local sea ice (along the Hokkaido coast) and large-scale fields, which will help improve our understanding of the sea ice extent and retreat variability over the Sea of Okhotsk and its linkage to the North Pacific climate variability.

Among several climate indices, the NPI is a robust indicator of recent (after the 1980s) sea ice
variations in the Sea of Okhotsk. We also examined the differences between the start and end date variations, which determine the durations. Variations in the start date at the Okhotsk coast sites resulted from the variations in the Aleutian Low strength, the air temperature around Japan in January, and partly the SST along the Soya warm current in December. Variations in the end date resulted from the Aleutian Low variations; the sea ice cover variations affected the air temperatures over the Sea of Okhotsk in April, in contrast to the sea ice cover variations in January resulting from the air temperature variations.

Sea Ice Tourism from Hokkaido, Japan

Taking a boat trip from Hokkaido Island to see Okhotsk drift ice is a big tourist attraction, as seen in the short video below.  Al Gore had them worried back then, but hopefully not now.

Previous posts reported how Arctic ice was growing faster than average as well as last year.  Remarkably, several regions have already exceeded their maximum ice extents last March, and overall, Arctic ice is 98% of 2021 maximum with six weeks of freezing season remaining.

The animation shows ice growing the second half of January, notably reaching 1.32M km2 in Baffin Bay, right center, exceeding 2021 max.  Greenland Sea, center top, added 144k km2 to reach 710k km2, also greater than last year’s max.  And at bottom left Bering Sea reached 741k km2, 116% of last years max.

This year began with a surplus and ended January still 230k km2 higher.  The gap over 2021 is 465k km2, nearly half a Wadham. SII dipped and then rose to match MASIE before a drop yesterday.

Region	2022031	Day 31 Average	2022-Ave.	2021031	2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	14599079	14368396	230683	14133494	465586
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1070282	494	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965968	38	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087049	89	1087120	17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897821	6	897827	0
(5) Kara_Sea	934844	917081	17763	934952	-108
(6) Barents_Sea	695583	572672	122910	690363	5220
(7) Greenland_Sea	724418	594443	129976	621098	103321
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1322799	1336538	-13738	1008582	314217
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854685	853253	1433	854597	88
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1260753	151	1260471	432
(11) Central_Arctic	3226420	3210376	16045	3203312	23108
(12) Bering_Sea	741202	650072	91130	545486	195717
(13) Baltic_Sea	62895	64264	-1369	52787	10108
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	720277	826161	-105884	900121	-179843

The table shows that surpluses in Barents, Greenland and Bering seas more than offset a deficit to average in Okhotsk.  In the latter case, ice has finally begun to build up toward a normal extent for this period. With an overall extent of 14.6M km2, prospects are good for maxing higher than 15M km2 by mid March.

 

 

The animation focuses on the two Pacific basins since most of the ice action is seen there.  The seesaw refers to a frequent observation that Bering and Okhotsk Seas often alternate growing and receding ice extents during both melting and freezing seasons.  This month Bering on the right is seen adding ice steadily from 387k km2 to 664k km2, now at 104% of its last March maximum. Meanwhile Okhotsk on the left starts at 466k km2, waffles back and forth, growing to 554k km2 before retreating to match the beginning.

The graph below shows daily ice extents for January 2022 compared to 16 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during January on average (2006 to 2021 inc.) Arctic ice extents increased ~1.3M km2 from ~13.1M km2 up to ~13.4M km2.  The 2022 cyan MASIE line started the year 261k km2 above average and on day 15 retained a surplus of 84k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit, then lagged behind in the first two weeks, before ending yesterday the same as MASIE. 2021 and 2020 started below average but made up most of the difference by mid month.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post UAH Confirms Global Warming Gone End of 2021.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Inside the Sea Level Scare Machine

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 015 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2021.

Region	2022015	Day 15 Average	2022-Ave.	2021015	2022-2021
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13851226	13767662	83564	13709295	141931
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1070247	529	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	965889	117	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087131	6	1087120	17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897837	-10	897827	0
(5) Kara_Sea	935023	908782	26242	860326	74697
(6) Barents_Sea	710507	509307	201200	479880	230628
(7) Greenland_Sea	584670	600334	-15664	649983	-65313
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	1084523	1158194	-73671	1060873	23650
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854685	853209	1476	854597	88
(10) Hudson_Bay	1260903	1254880	6024	1260471	432
(11) Central_Arctic	3199791	3209964	-10173	3183652	16140
(12) Bering_Sea	664148	535155	128993	503676	160473
(13) Baltic_Sea	44692	42101	2591	31534	13157
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	466605	629910	-163305	765767	-299162

The overall surplus to average is 84k km2, (0.6%).  Note large surpluses of ice in Barents and Bering Seas. The main deficit to average is in Sea of Okhotsk, as noted at the top.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

Remarkable Arctic ice recovery continued in December as seen in the animation below:

The month of December 2021 shows Hudson Bay (lower right) starting with only some shore ice and ending virtually ice covered, adding in that basin 925K km2, nearly a full Wadham. Just above Hudson, you can see the Gulf of St. Lawrence icing over, and Baffin Bay adding ice as well, adding 257k km2 to the total.

At the extreme left Okhotsk Sea also starts with shore ice and grows 435k km2, reaching down to Japan.  At the top Kara freezes over and Barents and Greenland Seas add ice to their margins. The graph below shows the December ice recovery

Note the average year adds 2M km2 and 2021 exceeded that by ~200k km2, maintaining its surplus position.  Other years starting far behind drew closer to average by the end.  SII has not yet reported its estimate of day 365.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 14-year averages and some recent years.

Region	2021365	Day 365 Average	2021-Ave.	2020365	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	13340119	13052148	287971	12765491	574628
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1070324	452	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	964420	1586	966006	0
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1087132	5	1087120	17
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897841	-14	897827	0
(5) Kara_Sea	932872	883615	49256	879232	53640
(6) Barents_Sea	653611	423352	230260	371122	282489
(7) Greenland_Sea	620509	579341	41168	592839	27671
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	873269	1003682	-130413	867509	5760
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854685	853276	1409	854597	88
(10) Hudson_Bay	1245910	1236600	9311	1257919	-12009
(11) Central_Arctic	3221247	3203619	17628	3159881	61366
(12) Bering_Sea	358002	408726	-50724	249522	108481
(13) Baltic_Sea	61428	30674	30755	7986	53443
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	478257	382234	96023	479972	-1715

This year’s ice extent is almost 300k km2 or 2% above average.  Only Baffin Bay and Bering Sea are in deficit to average, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, especially in Kara, Barents and Okhotsk seas.

Comparing Arctic Ice at End of Years

At  the bottom is a discussion of statistics on year-end Arctic Sea Ice extents.  The values are averages of the last five days of each year.  End of December is a neutral point in the melting-freezing cycle, midway between September minimum and March maximum extents.

Background from Previous Post Updated to Year-End 2021

Some years ago reading a thread on global warming at WUWT, I was struck by one person’s comment: “I’m an actuary with limited knowledge of climate metrics, but it seems to me if you want to understand temperature changes, you should analyze the changes, not the temperatures.” That rang bells for me, and I applied that insight in a series of Temperature Trend Analysis studies of surface station temperature records. Those posts are available under this heading. Climate Compilation Part I Temperatures

This post seeks to understand Arctic Sea Ice fluctuations using a similar approach: Focusing on the rates of extent changes rather than the usual study of the ice extents themselves. Fortunately, Sea Ice Index (SII) from NOAA provides a suitable dataset for this project. As many know, SII relies on satellite passive microwave sensors to produce charts of Arctic Ice extents going back to 1979.  The current Version 3 has become more closely aligned with MASIE, the modern form of Naval ice charting in support of Arctic navigation. The SII User Guide is here.

There are statistical analyses available, and the one of interest (table below) is called Sea Ice Index Rates of Change (here). As indicated by the title, this spreadsheet consists not of monthly extents, but changes of extents from the previous month. Specifically, a monthly value is calculated by subtracting the average of the last five days of the previous month from this month’s average of final five days. So the value presents the amount of ice gained or lost during the present month.

These monthly rates of change have been compiled into a baseline for the period 1980 to 2010, which shows the fluctuations of Arctic ice extents over the course of a calendar year. Below is a graph of those averages of monthly changes during the baseline period. Those familiar with Arctic Ice studies will not be surprised at the sine wave form. December end is a relatively neutral point in the cycle, midway between the September Minimum and March Maximum.

The graph makes evident the six spring/summer months of melting and the six autumn/winter months of freezing.  Note that June-August produce the bulk of losses, while October-December show the bulk of gains. Also the peak and valley months of March and September show very little change in extent from beginning to end.

The table of monthly data reveals the variability of ice extents over the last 4 decades.

The values in January show changes from the end of the previous December, and by summing twelve consecutive months we can calculate an annual rate of change for the years 1979 to 2021.

 

As many know, there has been a decline of Arctic ice extent over these 40 years, averaging 70k km2 per year. But year over year, the changes shift constantly between gains and losses.

Moreover, it seems random as to which months are determinative for a given year. For example, much ado was printed about June and July 2021 melting faster than expected resulting in higher losses of ice extents. But then the final 3 months of 2021 more than made up for those summer losses

As it happens in this dataset, October has the highest rate of adding ice. The table below shows the variety of monthly rates in the record as anomalies from the 1980-2010 baseline. In this exhibit a red cell is a negative anomaly (less than baseline for that month) and blue is positive (higher than baseline).

 

Note that the  +/ –  rate anomalies are distributed all across the grid, sequences of different months in different years, with gains and losses offsetting one another.  Yes, June 2021 lost more ice than the baseline, but about the same as 2017, and not as much as 2012. The gains in Oct.-Dec. 2021 were ~1M km2 above baseline, but were exceeded by the same months in 2019 and 2020.  The bottom line presents the average anomalies for each month over the period 1979-2021.  Note the rates of gains and losses mostly offset, and the average of all months in the bottom right cell is virtually zero.

A final observation: The graph below shows the Yearend Arctic Ice Extents for the last 32 years.

 

 

Year-end Arctic ice extents (last 5 days of December) show three distinct regimes: 1988-1998, 1998-2010, 2010-2021. The average year-end extent 1989-2010 is 13.4M km2. In the last decade, 2011 was 13.0M km2, and six years later, 2017 was 12.3M km2. 2021 rose back to 13.06  So for all the the fluctuations, the net is zero, or a gain from 2010. Talk of an Arctic ice death spiral is fanciful.

These data show a noisy, highly variable natural phenomenon. Clearly, unpredictable factors are in play, principally water structure and circulation, atmospheric circulation regimes, and also incursions and storms. And in the longer view, today’s extents are not unusual.

 

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

 

The image above shows recovery of Arctic sea ice extent over the first half of December 2021. As supported by the table later, the pace of refreezing for 2021 exceeded the 14-year average since mid-Nov. and ended close to average, and well above 2020.

The month began with the Arctic core as well as seas on the Eurasian and Can-Am sides (top and bottom) already ice-covered, so no additional extent came from there.  OTOH Hudson Bay (lower right) more than doubled extent, starting with only western shore ice and grew from 320k km2 to 780k km2, 62% of last March maximum.  On the Pacific side, Bering (bottom left) went down to 255k km2 before refreezing up to 426k m2, nearly half of its last max.  Okhotsk (far left) had very little ice to start but now has fast ice growing from the northern shore.

The graph below shows the ice extent growing mid-Nov. to mid-Dec compared to some other years and the 14 year average (2007 to 2020 inclusive).

Note that the  NH ice extent 14 year average increases 2.4M km2 during this period, up to 12.2M km2. MASIE 2021 tracked above average most of the period, returning to the mean at the end. Other years were also nearly average, except for 2020. SII was slightly lower than MASIE most of the time but ended nearly the same.

Region	2021349	Day 349 Average	2021-Ave.	2020349	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	12132680	12181283	-48602	11673121	459559
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1070021	755	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	931960	34047	876648	89358
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1086411	727	1086981	156
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897835	-8	897827	0
(5) Kara_Sea	892744	840489	52255	608199	284545
(6) Barents_Sea	516037	337705	178332	266917	249119
(7) Greenland_Sea	476250	552837	-76587	571809	-95559
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	782600	835808	-53209	790539	-7939
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854685	853275	1411	854597	88
(10) Hudson_Bay	778083	1126491	-348408	1163833	-385750
(11) Central_Arctic	3192879	3204951	-12071	3207975	-15096
(12) Bering_Sea	426194	229742	196452	147408	278787
(13) Baltic_Sea	32463	11257	21206	400	32063
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	148537	192106	-43569	114474	34063

The table shows where the ice is distributed compared to average. Hudson Bay shows a large deficit, along with smaller ones in Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay.  Offsetting are surpluses in Bering, Barents and Kara Seas.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

The animation shows Arctic ice extents from day 304 (end of October) to day 334, Nov.30, 2021. On the right side are the Euro-Russian seas already frozen over end of October.  At the bottom right Kara Sea fills in to >90%, while Barents (left of Kara) adds nearly 400k km2 to reach 60% of March maximum. Dramatically, at the top center Chukchi freezes over and Bering Sea grows ~300k km2 of ice extent.  On the far left Hudson Bay shows its delayed freezing this year, with some western shore ice appearing only in the last 10 days. Meanwhile, Baffin Bay (lower left) added 480k km2 of ice extent.  The graph below shows November daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during November on average Arctic ice extents increase ~2.5M km2 from ~8.5M km2 up to ~11M km2.  The 2021 cyan MASIE line started the month 163k km2 above average and on day 334 showed a surplus of  196k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit, then lagged behind through the month, before ending ~200k km2 lower than MASIE. (No SII data yet for day 334). 2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the ice recovery.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 334 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region	2021334	Day 334 Average	2021-Ave.	2020334	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	11171831	10976208	195623	10207244	964587
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1070776	1069252	1524	1070689	87
(2) Chukchi_Sea	966006	781701	184305	601423	364584
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087085	1082808	4277	1075464	11621
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897818	9	897827	0
(5) Kara_Sea	874105	789034	85071	470654	403451
(6) Barents_Sea	445466	252273	193193	56772	388695
(7) Greenland_Sea	468845	543650	-74805	577314	-108469
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	606454	680452	-73998	608255	-1802
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	854668	853089	1579	854597	71
(10) Hudson_Bay	307719	615274	-307555	803363	-495644
(11) Central_Arctic	3208675	3195024	13651	3118738	89936
(12) Bering_Sea	335645	140327	195318	39284	296361
(13) Baltic_Sea	6666	3698	2969	0	6666
(14) Sea_of_Okhotsk	34960	67733	-32773	31397	3563

The overall surplus to average is 196k km2, (2%).  Note the large surpluses of ice in Chukchi and Bering Seas, partly offset by deficits in Greenland Sea and Baffin bay. The largest deficit is Hudson Bay, a shallow basin that should freeze over in coming weeks, adding nearly 1M km2 when it does. Note that 2021 ice extent exceeds that of 2020 by almost a full Wadham, 965k km2, most of the surplus being in Chukchi, Bering, Kara and Barents Seas.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

Arctic Ice Extent reaching 10 million km2 is a milestone marking recovery of half the ice lost last spring and summer.  Each year the max extent is ~15M km2 and the mid-September min is ~5M km2.  This year in just two months the ice gained back half the ice lost in the six months prior to mid September.  The metric 1 Wadham = 1Mkm2 ice extent is in recognition of the professor who declared the Arctic would be ice-free before 2011, by which he meant less than 1M km2 extent.

The animation shows Arctic ice extents this year for the last two weeks, from day 304 (Oct. 31) to day 319 (Nov. 15). Note on the right side, the Russian shelf seas (from top:  East Siberian, Laptev, Kara) were already ice covered.  At top center, Chukchi adds 200k km2 to reach 90% of max last March. Top left, Beaufort sea fills in to 98% of its March max. Center left is Canadian Arctic Archipelago adding 267k km2 to reach 96% of its max. Lower left shows Baffin Bay and Gulf of St. Lawrence adding 400k km2 up to 67% of its max. .At the bottom center Barents Sea grows 231k km2 to reach 63% of its max.

The graph below shows Oct./Nov. daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note:

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents increase ~3.5M km2 from ~6.3M km2 up to ~9.8M km2.  The 2021 cyan MASIE line started the period ~400k km2 above average and on day 319 retained a surplus of ~380k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit, then lagged behind in the first two weeks, before ending ~200k km2 lower than MASIE (no data yet for yesterday). 2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the ice recovery.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post Adios, Global Warming

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 304 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2020.

Region	2021319	Day 319 Average	2021-Ave.	2020319	2021-2020
(0) Northern_Hemisphere	10136298	9754986	381313	9171330	964968
(1) Beaufort_Sea	1052365	1064248	-11883	1068490	-16125
(2) Chukchi_Sea	868672	614315	254357	539677	328995
(3) East_Siberian_Sea	1087137	1073635	13503	1078789	8349
(4) Laptev_Sea	897827	897084	743	889358	8468
(5) Kara_Sea	711109	637483	73626	450888	260220
(6) Barents_Sea	286732	145188	141544	15590	271142
(7) Greenland_Sea	404108	466229	-62120	502768	-98659
(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence	511295	532632	-21337	446719	64575
(9) Canadian_Archipelago	824385	852284	-27899	854597	-30212
(10) Hudson_Bay	155801	248736	-92935	256849	-101047
(11) Central_Arctic	3216117	3168700	47417	3046118	169999

The overall surplus to average is 381k km2, (4%).  Note large surpluses of ice in Chukchi, Barents and Kara Seas, as well as Central Arctic. The main deficits to average are in Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay, the latter being a shallow basin that will freeze over quickly once it starts.  Note that 2021 ice extent exceeds that of 2020 by nearly a full Wadham,  most of the difference being in Chukchi, Kara, Barents and Central Arctic.

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.